2024 Diff thread happy New Years.

[joker_josue]

you will be over 99% of blocks made.

thats good enough.

of the 153 to check I believe only 30 or have made a recent block.

At this stage of development of the analysis, in 4000 blocks, I was unable to almost automatically identify the miners of 129 blocks.
This means that I was unable to identify about 3%. I don't know if it's worth spending time doing a manual check for that 3%.

Even so, I did a manual check, and noticed that several of these blocks were mined by WhitePool and SecPool. So I'm still in the dilemma of trying to get even more information.

This now seems to take a long time, but once I have the file ready, I will be able to update the data in a few minutes. 

[1714238032]

1714238032

[1714238032]

1714238032

[1714238032]

1714238032

[1714238032]

1714238032

[philipma1957]

you will be over 99% of blocks made.

thats good enough.

of the 153 to check I believe only 30 or have made a recent block.

At this stage of development of the analysis, in 4000 blocks, I was unable to almost automatically identify the miners of 129 blocks.
This means that I was unable to identify about 3%. I don't know if it's worth spending time doing a manual check for that 3%.

Even so, I did a manual check, and noticed that several of these blocks were mined by WhitePool and SecPool. So I'm still in the dilemma of trying to get even more information.

This now seems to take a long time, but once I have the file ready, I will be able to update the data in a few minutes. 

that I understand first time is a bitch you can then manipulate data. 

We know some people are solo mining with custom firmware so you will not get every block identified.

[philipma1957]

https://newhedge.io/terminal/bitcoin/difficulty-estimator



Latest Block:   827486  (6 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   106.5550%  (927 / 869.97 expected, 57.03 ahead)

Previous Difficulty:   73197634206448.34                           
Current Difficulty:   70343519904866.8                             
Next Difficulty:   between 73624253423968 and 75066730030273
Next Difficulty Change:   between +4.6639% and +6.7145%
Previous Retarget:   last Saturday at 9:19 AM  (-3.8992%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   February 2, 2024 at 12:39 PM  (in 7d 2h 20m 4s)
Next Retarget (latest):   February 2, 2024 at 6:41 PM  (in 7d 8h 21m 57s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 13d 3h 19m 48s and 13d 9h 21m 40s

[joker_josue]

Guys, here's the final version of the analysis of difficulty cycles and mining pools.




Before creating a dedicated topic, what do you think?

[paid2]

Guys, here's the final version of the analysis of difficulty cycles and mining pools.
-snip-
Before creating a dedicated topic, what do you think?

Well done!

About the 3% unknown pools, it is nothing unusual, I would have bet on more heh

[philipma1957]

Just post them in a new thread. Be sure to us self modded to prevent it from being trashed. I do like what you did.

[joker_josue]

Just post them in a new thread. Be sure to us self modded to prevent it from being trashed. I do like what you did.

Topic created:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5483213

If you think I opened it in the wrong section or if the title should be improved, let me know. 

[philipma1957]

https://newhedge.io/terminal/bitcoin/difficulty-estimator
Latest Block:   827797  (3 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   108.1361%  (1238 / 1144.85 expected, 93.15 ahead)

Previous Difficulty:   73197634206448.34                           
Current Difficulty:   70343519904866.8                             
Next Difficulty:   between 75227911099053 and 76153220048702
Next Difficulty Change:   between +6.9436% and +8.2590%
Previous Retarget:   January 20, 2024 at 9:19 AM  (-3.8992%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Friday at 8:02 AM  (in 4d 23h 54m 38s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Friday at 11:48 AM  (in 5d 3h 40m 32s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 12d 22h 43m 10s and 13d 2h 29m 4s

big move up  if it continues we have a new ATH in under 6 days

[stompix]

At 8% if it will be the case this is going to be the largest jump in hashrate ever, of course it comes after a decline but still it might go above 40 Exashah, the previous records were 34 and 30, it's just insane how it keep growing.

Fees down, price recovering a bit, with this ew jump we're going back to 7.5 cents per th/s.
Also fees in % reward has hit a new low of 5%, lowest point since November.
And riot is planning 100 exahash till 2025 

Funny thing, with all these swings 4% down and 8% up the hashrate still looks just as distributed as previously, as If every single thing is affecting all pools nearly the same with little variance.

[philipma1957]

At 8% if it will be the case this is going to be the largest jump in hashrate ever, of course it comes after a decline but still it might go above 40 Exashah, the previous records were 34 and 30, it's just insane how it keep growing.

Fees down, price recovering a bit, with this ew jump we're going back to 7.5 cents per th/s.
Also fees in % reward has hit a new low of 5%, lowest point since November.
And riot is planning 100 exahash till 2025 

Funny thing, with all these swings 4% down and 8% up the hashrate still looks just as distributed as previously, as If every single thing is affecting all pools nearly the same with little variance.

https://shop.bitmain.com/product/detail?pid=00020240128174200794o5YnuS1A069A


more salt above

[alh]

So the summary of the two above comments and some rough math, the s19j for $3473 will produce in revenue about $11.35 per day. If you have "free" electricity, if this were to continue, your miner would be paid off in about 306 days. The next halving will happen during those 300 days, so it will obviously extend past 306 days.

Is this summary reasonably accurate?

[philipma1957]

So the summary of the two above comments and some rough math, the s19j for $3473 will produce in revenue about $11.35 per day. If you have "free" electricity, if this were to continue, your miner would be paid off in about 306 days. The next halving will happen during those 300 days, so it will obviously extend past 306 days.

Is this summary reasonably accurate?

No. coupons reduce price to 2431 .

If you have limited free power ie you can run 1 of these free its cheap.

first 90 days you get back 1000. Next 90 days you get 500. So if it arrives feb 5 or 6 you get a lot back fast.

If you have free power.

[philipma1957]

https://newhedge.io/terminal/bitcoin/difficulty-estimator



Latest Block:   828303  (a few seconds ago)

Current Pace:   106.6479%  (1744 / 1635.29 expected, 108.71 ahead)

Previous Difficulty:   73197634206448.34                           
Current Difficulty:   70343519904866.8                             
Next Difficulty:   between 74987693912964 and 75079599442511
Next Difficulty Change:   between +6.6021% and +6.7328%
Previous Retarget:   January 20, 2024 at 9:19 AM  (-3.8992%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Friday at 12:22 PM  (in 1d 18h 30m 26s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Friday at 12:45 PM  (in 1d 18h 53m 19s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 13d 3h 3m 19s and 13d 3h 26m 11s

[joker_josue]

It seems that that logic, that many miners turned off their machines, because of the cold problems in Texas, makes some sense.

We spent a good part of this cycle with a value close to 0%, and now in the final phase it is almost 8%. Many turning on the machines.

[stompix]

https://shop.bitmain.com/product/detail?pid=00020240128174200794o5YnuS1A069A
more salt above

Bitmain dumping the j xp series, so they are probably done with the S19 and only focus on the S21 from now
But honestly ...
After Coupon 16.1 $/T vs  17.5 $/T with  one at 21.5J/T and the other at 17.5J/T
Still the s21 look more attractive with coupons (of course if you have them)
They also dropped the price of the hydro to 8.4 $/T, but the efficiency on that is just bad!

Still weird, they have a ton of pre-orders, do they have also a ton of stock, I wonder if we'll see the most efficient gear at $10/th if the halving doesn't come with a price bump!

Latest Block:   828397  (31 minutes ago)
Current Pace:   105.9973%  (1838 / 1734.01 expected, 103.99 ahead)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Tomorrow at 9:18 PM  (in 1d 3h 59m 17s)

Down to more realistic figures, so counting the -3.8% last time it because just an average of ~1% per two weeks, rounding error.

[philipma1957]

https://newhedge.io/terminal/bitcoin/difficulty-estimator




Latest Block:   828552  (29 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   107.0725%  (1993 / 1861.36 expected, 131.64 ahead)

Previous Difficulty:   73197634206448.34                           
Current Difficulty:   70343519904866.8                             
Next Difficulty:   between 75370496794130 and 75371197957724
Next Difficulty Change:   between +7.1463% and +7.1473%
Previous Retarget:   January 20, 2024 at 9:19 AM  (-3.8992%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Today at 11:07 AM  (in 0d 3h 34m 48s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Today at 11:08 AM  (in 0d 3h 34m 58s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 13d 1h 48m 21s and 13d 1h 48m 32s

picked pace up 🆙  131 plus blocks amost one day ahead.

[mikeywith]

Latest Block:   828397  (31 minutes ago)
Current Pace:   105.9973%  (1838 / 1734.01 expected, 103.99 ahead)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Tomorrow at 9:18 PM  (in 1d 3h 59m 17s)

Down to more realistic figures, so counting the -3.8% last time it because just an average of ~1% per two weeks, rounding error.

Outch, the last set of blocks was insane, we finished at 7.33% and that is really going to hurt, i think people are trying to maximize their hashrate before the halving, i think we could see more jumps like that, fudge.

[philipma1957]

Latest Block:   828397  (31 minutes ago)
Current Pace:   105.9973%  (1838 / 1734.01 expected, 103.99 ahead)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Tomorrow at 9:18 PM  (in 1d 3h 59m 17s)

Down to more realistic figures, so counting the -3.8% last time it because just an average of ~1% per two weeks, rounding error.

Outch, the last set of blocks was insane, we finished at 7.33% and that is really going to hurt, i think people are trying to maximize their hashrate before the halving, i think we could see more jumps like that, fudge.

https://newhedge.io/terminal/bitcoin/difficulty-estimator

Latest Block:   828751  (16 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   121.8286%  (176 / 144.47 expected, 31.53 ahead)

Previous Difficulty:   70343519904866.8                             
Current Difficulty:   75502165623893.72                           
Next Difficulty:   between 77883462687748 and 92425765237003
Next Difficulty Change:   between +3.1539% and +22.4147%
Previous Retarget:   Yesterday at 10:35 AM  (+7.3335%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   February 13, 2024 at 10:23 PM  (in 10d 11h 43m 10s)
Next Retarget (latest):   February 16, 2024 at 12:32 AM  (in 12d 13h 52m 10s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 11d 11h 47m 50s and 13d 13h 56m 50s

31 extra blocks in just about 1 day.

brutal numbers yeah variance bla bla bla. but 176 vs 144 is nuts 🥜

Lets see if we continue at that pace.

[joker_josue]

31 extra blocks in just about 1 day.

brutal numbers yeah variance bla bla bla. but 176 vs 144 is nuts 🥜

Lets see if we continue at that pace.

If things continue at this rate, will the cycle end sooner, or will it even mine more blocks than normal?

[philipma1957]

31 extra blocks in just about 1 day.

brutal numbers yeah variance bla bla bla. but 176 vs 144 is nuts 🥜

Lets see if we continue at that pace.

If things continue at this rate, will the cycle end sooner, or will it even mine more blocks than normal?

cycles are 2015/2016 blocks always.

but time is faster or slower.