2024 Diff thread happy New Years.

[stompix]

Outch, the last set of blocks was insane, we finished at 7.33% and that is really going to hurt, i think people are trying to maximize their hashrate before the halving, i think we could see more jumps like that, fudge.

And we have one of the fastest start

Latest Block:   828776  (2 minutes ago)
Current Pace:   121.5151%  (201 / 165.41 expected, 35.59 ahead)

Of course this is luck no way there are 120 exahash of gear coming online but there must be at least a few % there for real.
So income is down, but luckily for some, someone took a dump on the mempool and we're back at 500sat/b
https://mempool.space/block/00000000000000000001721a92c27d40e9d0579be5e150be0318a481c8d2d1c0

brutal numbers yeah variance bla bla bla. but 176 vs 144 is nuts 🥜
Lets see if we continue at that pace.

It won't!
I know you never say never an nothing is impossible but this thing truly is.

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[mikeywith]

cycles are 2015/2016 blocks always.

but time is faster or slower.

Ya, 2016 blocks make a difficulty epoch, however, due to a bug in the code the first block of each round is always ignored in the calculation, so even if takes too long to solve the first block -- it won't affect the diff change, besides other things, even if hashrate was constant difficulty would still increase.

@stompix, the halving is going to be brutal regardless, i lost interest in all the small details the precede it, nothing matters now, not until the halving sets a new ground for everyone to walk on ( or crawl on for many others).

[philipma1957]

cycles are 2015/2016 blocks always.

but time is faster or slower.

Ya, 2016 blocks make a difficulty epoch, however, due to a bug in the code the first block of each round is always ignored in the calculation, so even if takes too long to solve the first block -- it won't affect the diff change, besides other things, even if hashrate was constant difficulty would still increase.

@stompix, the halving is going to be brutal regardless, i lost interest in all the small details the precede it, nothing matters now, not until the halving sets a new ground for everyone to walk on ( or crawl on for many others).

yeah it simply depends on the counting of the starting block.

121% is truly a magnificent number. It will kill my mining if we do 20% jumps.  But I can see us going way past 800eh by apr 1 2024.

which I do not think is possible.  But what do I know. Not much

[mikeywith]

121% is truly a magnificent number. It will kill my mining if we do 20% jumps.  But I can see us going way past 800eh by apr 1 2024.

which I do not think is possible.  But what do I know. Not much

121% in a single epoch is against physics and economics, noway on earth it's going to keep the pace, we will end up with a small increase of 2-3% IMO.

[joker_josue]

I end up finding this situation funny. We are +10% above the target pace. And then we have blocks taking half an hour to be mined. 

Latest Block:   828872  (24 minutes ago)
Current Pace:   116.1621%  (297 / 255.68 expected, 41.32 ahead)
Previous Difficulty:   70343519904866.8                             
Current Difficulty:   75502165623893.72                           
Next Difficulty:   between 78534435562512 and 87942783188022
Next Difficulty Change:   between +4.0161% and +16.4772%
Previous Retarget:   last Friday at 3:35 PM  (+7.3335%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   February 14, 2024 at 4:50 PM  (in 10d 6h 38m 17s)
Next Retarget (latest):   February 16, 2024 at 2:49 AM  (in 11d 16h 37m 38s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 12d 1h 15m 3s and 13d 11h 14m 25s

[mikeywith]

I end up finding this situation funny. We are +10% above the target pace. And then we have blocks taking half an hour to be mined. 

This has nothing to do with actual hashrate, even at static speed time intervals between blocks follow exponential distribution.

With the mean being 10 mins, If you plot the half an hour in a cdf function you will get 4.98%, which means nearly 5% of all blocks are found after half an hour regardless of the hashrate.

 

[philipma1957]

I end up finding this situation funny. We are +10% above the target pace. And then we have blocks taking half an hour to be mined.  

This has nothing to do with actual hashrate, even at static speed time intervals between blocks follow exponential distribution.

With the mean being 10 mins, If you plot the half an hour in a cdf function you will get 4.98%, which means nearly 5% of all blocks are found after half an hour regardless of the hashrate.

 

yeah barring a massive network wide cut back of gear ⚙️.

you need to go to an hour wait to call it unusual.

and two hours to be a real longshot. two wait time is a very rare event.

an hour is 0.0025 or 1 time every 400 blocks

two hours is 0.00000625 or 1 time every 160,000 blocks.

There are qualifiers to those numbers as they assume the actual gear running is really running.

Ie if every miner in the world said fu I am turning off my gear to prove a point we could go a month with ease.

But we all know that there is no way every miner in the world will power off.

[joker_josue]

I end up finding this situation funny. We are +10% above the target pace. And then we have blocks taking half an hour to be mined. 

This has nothing to do with actual hashrate, even at static speed time intervals between blocks follow exponential distribution.

With the mean being 10 mins, If you plot the half an hour in a cdf function you will get 4.98%, which means nearly 5% of all blocks are found after half an hour regardless of the hashrate.

Yes, I know that!

I just found it funny, that we had a lower difficulty than "necessary" for the current hash, and that we even had several blocks of advancement, only to see a block taking so long to come out.

Just a joke, but that's how probabilities work, sometimes faster and sometimes slower, no matter the hash.

[philipma1957]

https://newhedge.io/terminal/bitcoin/difficulty-estimator

Latest Block:   829048  (a minute ago)

Current Pace:   113.8441%  (473 / 415.48 expected, 57.52 ahead)

Previous Difficulty:   70343519904866.8                             
Current Difficulty:   75502165623893.72                           
Next Difficulty:   between 79557588921358 and 86098122629700
Next Difficulty Change:   between +5.3713% and +14.0340%
Previous Retarget:   last Friday at 10:35 AM  (+7.3335%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   February 14, 2024 at 5:43 PM  (in 9d 9h 53m 37s)
Next Retarget (latest):   February 15, 2024 at 5:39 PM  (in 10d 9h 49m 45s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 12d 7h 8m 25s and 13d 7h 4m 33s

A 13% gain seems  too high basically we are doing 160 blocks a day vs 144 blocks.

If it holds true or drops to 10% it will be over 60eh of gear that is 300,000 s21's at 3,500 each

300,000 x 3500 = 1,050,000,000 just over 1 billion in gear added.

and 300,000 x 3.9 = 1,170,000 kwatts  which is 1,170 mega watts per hour. 

The average home in the US uses 1.2 kwatts per hour.

So this uptick could power close to 1 million USA homes.

[joker_josue]

~~

How do you know the total hash power being used on the network?
Is there any source of information that has the record by day or block?

[philipma1957]

~~

How do you know the total hash power being used on the network?
Is there any source of information that has the record by day or block?

it is a mere estimate based on the difficulty and blocks made against it.

we are near 600eh.

https://www.coinwarz.com/mining/bitcoin/hashrate-chart

So 10% is 60eh

It is always a ballpark number . Very unlikely to be a prefect estimate.

but the 600eh is maybe 570-630eh range so ten percent is

57-63 eh gain.

[DaveF]

121% is truly a magnificent number. It will kill my mining if we do 20% jumps.  But I can see us going way past 800eh by apr 1 2024.

which I do not think is possible.  But what do I know. Not much

121% in a single epoch is against physics and economics, noway on earth it's going to keep the pace, we will end up with a small increase of 2-3% IMO.

There are probably a bunch of people giving older gear that was off one last run before they sell it after the 1/2ing.
Yes you could probably buy the BTC at a better rate, but if it's there and idle might as well turn it on and get some BTC.

Goes against logic, but I have seen it with my own eyes. There is NO possible way a T17 can make any BTC with $0.06 power but there are a bunch that were on since mid January in the colo that have been off for months.

-Dave

[joker_josue]

it is a mere estimate based on the difficulty and blocks made against it.

we are near 600eh.

Thanks.
Maybe I'll add this information to my analysis table that I'm doing. I have to think about it and the best way to do it.

Can you tell me how the calculations are made? What information are they based on?

[mikeywith]

Can you tell me how the calculations are made? What information are they based on?

(blocks solved per x time/expected number of blocks x time) * difficulty * 2^32 )/600


If x you trying for is 1 day, then
(blocks solved in this day/144) * difficulty * 2^32 )/600

144 comes from 1440 mins in a day / 10 mins which is the expected block time.

Of course, the smaller the timeframe the less accurate the answer is.

[joker_josue]

(blocks solved per x time/expected number of blocks x time) * difficulty * 2^32 )/600


If x you trying for is 1 day, then
(blocks solved in this day/144) * difficulty * 2^32 )/600

144 comes from 1440 mins in a day / 10 mins which is the expected block time.

Of course, the smaller the timeframe the less accurate the answer is.

Why divide by 600?
The "difficulty" is the difficulty number of the respective cycle, right?

I will be able to do this in half a cycle file, with these calculations, since I don't have to collect more data than I have. 

[mikeywith]

Why divide by 600?

Because the hashrate result you are going to get is going to be the number of hashes without a time unit, which is hard to understand, so you would need to convert it to hashes per unit time, which in this example = seconds, since the expected block time is 10 mins, that gives you 600 seconds.

the final result you get is going to be represented in hashes/second, which is going to be a huge number, you are going to have to divide it by 1000000000000000000 to get the Exahash (commonly used in this thread and most places) if you want the PH representation you divide it by 1000000000000000

The "difficulty" is the difficulty number of the respective cycle, right?

Correct.

Here is an example of the last 24 hours hashrarte, in the last 24 hours, 157 blocks were found, the current difficulty is 75502165623893.72, so the formula is

Code:

((157/144) * 75502165623893.72 * 2^32 )/600/1000000000000000000

The result is 589EH

if you check any hashrate chart it would be within that figure.

Obviously, to repeat again, these are not 100% accurate figures, but it's the only way to make a calculated/educated guess, many if not most large pools publish their "actual" hashrate, which also isn't 100% accurate since they use the same logic to figure out the individual miners hashrate, so the end result is all quite the same.

[joker_josue]

Obviously, to repeat again, these are not 100% accurate figures, but it's the only way to make a calculated/educated guess, many if not most large pools publish their "actual" hashrate, which also isn't 100% accurate since they use the same logic to figure out the individual miners hashrate, so the end result is all quite the same.

Thanks for the clarification. 

I think I will add this information to the data for the next cycle. I just have to see how it gets better.

[philipma1957]

https://newhedge.io/terminal/bitcoin/difficulty-estimator


Latest Block:   829248  (11 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   113.0745%  (673 / 595.18 expected, 77.82 ahead)

Previous Difficulty:   70343519904866.8                             
Current Difficulty:   75502165623893.72                           
Next Difficulty:   between 80741089837944 and 85473024468320
Next Difficulty Change:   between +6.9388% and +13.2061%
Previous Retarget:   last Friday at 10:35 AM  (+7.3335%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   February 14, 2024 at 7:44 PM  (in 8d 5h 57m 7s)
Next Retarget (latest):   February 15, 2024 at 12:58 PM  (in 8d 23h 11m 36s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 12d 9h 8m 57s and 13d 2h 23m 25s


still very high 13% is massive.

[stompix]

I end up finding this situation funny. We are +10% above the target pace. And then we have blocks taking half an hour to be mined.  

Probabilities and luck are always paying games with human minds!
I'm watching the races right now and it's the 8th favorite under 5/4 so 2.25 odds to get trashed in a row, I almost feel tempted to put a bet on the last horse of the day without even knowing his time form  because we must have at least one winning, right, after so many loses!

Same with blocks, if you're paying the minimum fee but you're in a hurry get ready, for sure the next block will be half an hour late!  

121% in a single epoch is against physics and economics, noway on earth it's going to keep the pace, we will end up with a small increase of 2-3% IMO.

we all knew 121% was out of discussion but..

Latest Block:   829550  (21 minutes ago)
Current Pace:   110.6209%  (975 / 881.39 expected, 93.61 ahead)
Next Retarget (earliest):   February 15, 2024 at 9:19 AM  (in 6d 12h 50m 31s)

10% is still madness ?
I expected it to drop like a stone in the next few days but seems not slowing that much down, in the last 24 hours we had 148, 24 hour before 159 blocks, I know S21 are being put online everywhere but are they really that many?

@stompix, the halving is going to be brutal regardless,

I have the luxury of not caring that much anymore, even if I start losing money the growth has made up for it , I'm in a "bring it on, show me the worse" mode.
But the rest, I don't ant to be a miner with 100+ asics on more than 6 cents two months from now!
With one exception, if it's not my money but investors in that gear, then I couldn't care less also!

[philipma1957]

I end up finding this situation funny. We are +10% above the target pace. And then we have blocks taking half an hour to be mined.  

Probabilities and luck are always paying games with human minds!
I'm watching the races right now and it's the 8th favorite under 5/4 so 2.25 odds to get trashed in a row, I almost feel tempted to put a bet on the last horse of the day without even knowing his time form  because we must have at least one winning, right, after so many loses!

Same with blocks, if you're paying the minimum fee but you're in a hurry get ready, for sure the next block will be half an hour late!  

121% in a single epoch is against physics and economics, noway on earth it's going to keep the pace, we will end up with a small increase of 2-3% IMO.

we all knew 121% was out of discussion but..

Latest Block:   829550  (21 minutes ago)
Current Pace:   110.6209%  (975 / 881.39 expected, 93.61 ahead)
Next Retarget (earliest):   February 15, 2024 at 9:19 AM  (in 6d 12h 50m 31s)

10% is still madness ?
I expected it to drop like a stone in the next few days but seems not slowing that much down, in the last 24 hours we had 148, 24 hour before 159 blocks, I know S21 are being put online everywhere but are they really that many?

@stompix, the halving is going to be brutal regardless,

I have the luxury of not caring that much anymore, even if I start losing money the growth has made up for it , I'm in a "bring it on, show me the worse" mode.
But the rest, I don't ant to be a miner with 100+ asics on more than 6 cents two months from now!
With one exception, if it's not my money but investors in that gear, then I couldn't care less also!

well six cents has basically almost always worked. i am interested in seeing what it does.