2024 Diff thread happy New Years.

[mikeywith]

The current pace is 94.7%, it is extremely unlikely that we had the  a 6.3% drop in hashrate given the price, so this makes me believe (even more) that the previous epoch was very lucky and that the 8.2% increase was more so 2-3% and the rest was luck.

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[philipma1957]

The current pace is 94.7%, it is extremely unlikely that we had the  a 6.3% drop in hashrate given the price, so this makes me believe (even more) that the previous epoch was very lucky and that the 8.2% increase was more so 2-3% and the rest was luck.

A 106 rate of luck for 2016 blocks is very unlikely.

It is more likely that it was 108 and some miners cranked up hard while waiting to redeploy their new s21's

I now think they pulled a ton go s19's off line and are dumping them at very cheap prices.

I see listings for 1045 used s19j pros at — $1,279,000 for the lot —

that is about 

125ph

and 300 m30's for  880 each that is about  30ph

those are public sales at dumping prices.

[stompix]

I don't believe the on/off scenario.
So you have 150k S21 coming in and you plug them in alongside 300k S19 and then you unplug the S19 and throw them out, 450 k pieces of gear in two weeks, who will even do this kind of work, we're talking about 4500 tons of equipment, 100 fully loaded till their axels scream trucks.

Would rather blame some really unrealistic days in terms of block generation:
https://bitinfocharts.com/comparison/bitcoin-confirmationtime.html#3m
we had a day with extra 42 blocks just one like that and you screw the difficulty completely.

Probably 4% was more accurate, and if the pace goes up just a bit but still negative it would mean a 4% followed by a 2%, still realistic.
300k gear moving in and out in 10 days, I can't even picture the logistic behind it.

[joker_josue]

I don't believe the on/off scenario.
So you have 150k S21 coming in and you plug them in alongside 300k S19 and then you unplug the S19 and throw them out, 450 k pieces of gear in two weeks, who will even do this kind of work, we're talking about 4500 tons of equipment, 100 fully loaded till their axels scream trucks.

Why not? If the miner is planning an equipment renovation, they may well do that.
Are you going to do this overnight? No, it will be a gradual process that will last a few days or weeks.

[philipma1957]

I don't believe the on/off scenario.
So you have 150k S21 coming in and you plug them in alongside 300k S19 and then you unplug the S19 and throw them out, 450 k pieces of gear in two weeks, who will even do this kind of work, we're talking about 4500 tons of equipment, 100 fully loaded till their axels scream trucks.

Would rather blame some really unrealistic days in terms of block generation:
https://bitinfocharts.com/comparison/bitcoin-confirmationtime.html#3m
we had a day with extra 42 blocks just one like that and you screw the difficulty completely.

Probably 4% was more accurate, and if the pace goes up just a bit but still negative it would mean a 4% followed by a 2%, still realistic.
300k gear moving in and out in 10 days, I can't even picture the logistic behind it.

this truck can move 500 pieces

https://www.pensketruckrental.com/quote/#/reservation/truck-selection/truck-details/4

yellow truck
video icon
Watch to learn more about our 26 Foot Truck.
26 Foot Truck

3-5 BR Home (5-7 rooms)

Cargo Size: 25'11" L x 8'1" W x 8'1" H
Exterior Size: 35'5"L x 8'6"W x 12'6"H
Capacity: 1700 cu. ft., 10,000 lbs.
Fuel: Diesel, Up to 13 mpg
Tank: Up to 70 gal.
Seating: 3-person bench
Loading Ramp: 1,000 lb.
Tow Hitch: Yes
Transmission: Automatic
Air Conditioning: Yes


if the gear is on pallets it loads in 1 hour.

I am 67 and I just loaded and unloaded that truck with 9700 pounds of eth cables. we loaded it in an hour.

offloading was slower. 2 hours. Two guys. the other guy was 30 years old and did more work than me.

So yeah its work but 4 guys and two trucks could do four short trips in a day. that is 2000 pieces a day. or 10,000 pieces in a week.

We can argue good luck and bad luck which can be involved. But the larger the network the more level luck is.

 If 1  s19 was the entire network it can do 180 blocks in a day with luck
 If 1,000,000 s19 is the entire network they can do 180 blocks in a day with luck

In theory both are true , but you are neglecting a secondary factor the 1,000,000 separate pieces running independently have the ability to flatten the luck.

and the 1 piece has the ability to skew the luck easier.


Although I can bet you bottom dollar someone will say no to that idea.  The difference in difficulty cancels that factor.  It does in theory only if every machine is a perfectly equal machine running at perfectly equal conditions .

Then they would be like perfect casino dice. with zero balance.

The reality is a 1 machine network could have a great machine with great parts and it is a luckier machine.

It also could have a great connection to the blockchain.  So it could be biased to higher luck.


1,000,000 machines will flatten that a lot.  It will not show in the formulas but it is true.

[mikeywith]

I hear your points , both of you, both make sense and unfortunately probability is not math, you can't be too sure of what caused an event to happen when you have no control over it, it's likely a combination of both theories with different ratio, there has to be luck involved for that 8% figure to happen, I simply don't believe there was an addition of nearly 50EH in a single epoch, but I also know giving the halving is just around the corner -- many gear switching is probably taking place, gear prices are falling down rapidly especially the used once.

[stompix]

In theory both are true , but you are neglecting a secondary factor the 1,000,000 separate pieces running independently have the ability to flatten the luck.
and the 1 piece has the ability to skew the luck easier.

And they have the ability to also increase the luck to ridiculous levels, too, because that's how luck works.

Of course the 350k could be done you just have to employ more people, you just have to have a lot of MW available for god knows what reason, you have to have extra racks at hand, again why would, and spend a ton of $ to do that as fast as possible for, what really? A extra week of mining?

The reason why I don't believe in it being possible is because I see all those press release from Mara, Riot, Hut8 and if you look at the rate they put in new gear despite having it in order you will see they barely manage to bring each of them 1-2 exahash online constantly, to think that they would get their gear at the same time and decided all of them to play like this and keep the s19 running for exactly the same time, this to me sounds like a possibility just as high of getting 1 extra block for the 6 you mine usually without doing anything extra.

As mikey said above, a combination of luck, extra gear delivered, some farm testing a setup, a farm maybe going down for maintenance as we speak yes, but just one single factor, I find it hard to believe!

Pace has gone up a bit:

Latest Block:   831696  (2 minutes ago)
Current Pace:   95.6864%  (1105 / 1154.81 expected, 49.81 behind)

Why not? If the miner is planning an equipment renovation, they may well do that.
Are you going to do this overnight? No, it will be a gradual process that will last a few days or weeks.

Yup, weeks is the thing, it just doesn't happen in two weeks, on/off.
Besides, the whole renovation thing, let's assume you have 10 000 gears , you plan on giving away 3000 and replacing them with 3000 new ones, why would that company had the space, racks, cables, transformers, cooling already in place  for 3000 extra gear? When you renovate something you don't have already things set up in place and working for extra 20 or 25% of capacity.

[philipma1957]

In theory both are true , but you are neglecting a secondary factor the 1,000,000 separate pieces running independently have the ability to flatten the luck.
and the 1 piece has the ability to skew the luck easier.

And they have the ability to also increase the luck to ridiculous levels, too, because that's how luck works.

Of course the 350k could be done you just have to employ more people, you just have to have a lot of MW available for god knows what reason, you have to have extra racks at hand, again why would, and spend a ton of $ to do that as fast as possible for, what really? A extra week of mining?

The reason why I don't believe in it being possible is because I see all those press release from Mara, Riot, Hut8 and if you look at the rate they put in new gear despite having it in order you will see they barely manage to bring each of them 1-2 exahash online constantly, to think that they would get their gear at the same time and decided all of them to play like this and keep the s19 running for exactly the same time, this to me sounds like a possibility just as high of getting 1 extra block for the 6 you mine usually without doing anything extra.

As mikey said above, a combination of luck, extra gear delivered, some farm testing a setup, a farm maybe going down for maintenance as we speak yes, but just one single factor, I find it hard to believe!

Pace has gone up a bit:

Latest Block:   831696  (2 minutes ago)
Current Pace:   95.6864%  (1105 / 1154.81 expected, 49.81 behind)

Why not? If the miner is planning an equipment renovation, they may well do that.
Are you going to do this overnight? No, it will be a gradual process that will last a few days or weeks.

Yup, weeks is the thing, it just doesn't happen in two weeks, on/off.
Besides, the whole renovation thing, let's assume you have 10 000 gears , you plan on giving away 3000 and replacing them with 3000 new ones, why would that company had the space, racks, cables, transformers, cooling already in place  for 3000 extra gear? When you renovate something you don't have already things set up in place and working for extra 20 or 25% of capacity.

that is a fallacy.  the more you do an event the more likely it comes closer to 'normal' luck.



So 1,000,000 machines are more likely to be close to standard luck than 1 machine.



think coin tosses.

 1 flip = 1 machine and the result will be terrible luck or perfect luck

1,000,000 flips = 1,000,000 machines the result will not be 100% good luck or 100% bad luck.  it likely will be 490,000 heads 510,000 tails or some place near that.

When you do a luck calculation for the network now we are not one machine or 1 coin flip.

we are millions of machines or millions of coins flips.

 this far more likely means a 12 day adjustment due to magical luck or a 16 day adjustment due to badest luck around does not happen.

because that many 'flips' should show the bias if there is bias.


I doubt very much we are ever 5% above or below for a 2 week adjustment due to luck, we just never count in the  leveling effect that millions of units of gear has on luck.

[stompix]

that is a fallacy.  the more you do an event the more likely it comes closer to 'normal' luck.
So 1,000,000 machines are more likely to be close to standard luck than 1 machine.

I still think you're underestimating luck and probabilities:
11th of February till 12th 24 hours 177 blocks
https://blockchair.com/bitcoin/blocks?q=time(2024-02-11%2019:29:29..2024-02-12%2019:29:29)
next 24 hours: 141 blocks
https://blockchair.com/bitcoin/blocks?q=time(2024-02-12%2019:29:29..2024-02-13%2019:29:29)
If you have a 25% variable in 48 hours why is 8% instead of 4% so impossible in 13 days?

[mikeywith]

If you have a 25% variable in 48 hours why is 8% instead of 4% so impossible in 13 days?

Not sure what are you guys trying to reach to, but there is a 0.0048% chance you get 25% or more variance in 288 blocks vs a 0.0245% chance of getting 8% or more variance in 2016 blocks, so the latter is more likely to happen based on my simple code which uses pyton erlang.cdf function.

[philipma1957]

If you have a 25% variable in 48 hours why is 8% instead of 4% so impossible in 13 days?

Not sure what are you guys trying to reach to, but there is a 0.0048% chance you get 25% or more variance in 288 blocks vs a 0.0245% chance of getting 8% or more variance in 2016 blocks, so the latter is more likely to happen based on my simple code which uses pyton poisson.cdf function.

that formula is technically accurate.

but it can be flatter if you did the 2016 blocks with 1 or 2 million S19s or s21s in this case you need the difficulty of 84t

vs 1 s19 or s21. in this test you need a low difficulty to show the network is only 200th


I am saying the formula will work with either case .  but that the larger sample of gear flattens the luck more than the smaller sample.


the formula assumes perfectly equal hash . ie 1th anywhere is completely equal.

So if you have 1 machine for the whole network it is less likely the all th are true.

[mikeywith]

the formula assumes perfectly equal hash . ie 1th anywhere is completely equal.

Correct, it assumes no change in the actual factor that directly impacts the frequency of the events, which is why you just can't tell, looking at the previous epoch which had an 8.24% increase, assuming there was no change in the hashrate in either direction, the chance of that happening would be 0.016% which is pretty damn low, but if we were to assume half of that increase was actually caused by gears combining online and only the 4% was the result of luck, the chance of that happening increasing dramatically to 3.9%, if we assume it's 5% actually gears then that 3% is 9.3% chance.

The same would apply to the 288 blocks, if half of that assumed 25% is the result of gears combining online, and we talking only 12.5%, then that's a 2.27% chance, if we apply the same logic to 5% vs 3% and say roughly 17% was actual gears and 8% was luck than that's roughly 10% chance.

So ya, there isn't much you can takeaway from all of these guessing, except having a nice conversation with fine gentlemen like yourself and stompy.


edit: in the above, I used Poisson distribution function which is mainly "discrete probability distribution that models the number of events occurring in a fixed interval of time or space", I changed my code to use Erlang distribution which is " a continuous probability distribution that models the time between events in a Poisson process", while both have nearly similar results there is a slight difference, and I believe for the case in hand, using Erlang is more accurate.

Here is the code I wrote, which is pretty straight forward and would get 100% accurate result.

Code:

from scipy.stats import erlang

# Define the mean (expected events 2016 for a whole epoch, 144 for 1 day worth of blocks)
mean = 144
# Define the percentage change you want to evaluate 
percent = 5

# Calculate the threshold (don't change)
threshold = (1 + percent / 100)

# Calculate the CDF for Erlang distribution (don't change)
cdf = erlang.cdf(threshold * mean, mean, scale=1)

# Format the output to 2 dec points (don't change)
formatted_result = "{:.2f}%".format((1 - cdf) * 100)

print("Probability of having {}% or more additional events in {} blocks is: {}".format(percent, mean, formatted_result))

You can copy and paste this code to any online python compiler like this one https://www.onlinegdb.com/online_python_compiler if you want to run your own numbers, all you need to change would be the mean and the percent, the code I pasted above uses 5% or more blocks in a single day (144) blocks, if you want a whole epoch and 2% you would change the 144 to 2016 and the 5 to 2, let me know if you have any troubles running the code.

[stompix]

Not sure what are you guys trying to reach to,

We're discussing and speculating each giving some arguments and not getting convinced by the other's.
Not that the outcome would matter, but what are you going to do on a rainy Friday?
As you said in the other reply, chit chatting..

but there is a 0.0048% chance you get 25% or more variance in 288 blocks vs a 0.0245% chance of getting 8% or more variance in 2016 blocks,

and none of us as far as I understand claim that it's a fully 8% luck and more like half of it or one third or something around which would again increase the possibilities but, again not that it matters to the zeros.

I would be more interested in the actual technical challenges of having at least 50exhash in the datacenter and 50 out the next day, even assuming some larger farms managed to do this the same time.  I still believe that unless you're willing to spend extra for extra hands and shifts, and a lot here this won't be possible unless all the farms came to some agreement and all of Foundry and Bitmain and Antpool did it the same time. Why would they? That is another speculation!

[philipma1957]

Not sure what are you guys trying to reach to,

We're discussing and speculating each giving some arguments and not getting convinced by the other's.
Not that the outcome would matter, but what are you going to do on a rainy Friday?
As you said in the other reply, chit chatting..

but there is a 0.0048% chance you get 25% or more variance in 288 blocks vs a 0.0245% chance of getting 8% or more variance in 2016 blocks,

and none of us as far as I understand claim that it's a fully 8% luck and more like half of it or one third or something around which would again increase the possibilities but, again not that it matters to the zeros.

I would be more interested in the actual technical challenges of having at least 50exhash in the datacenter and 50 out the next day, even assuming some larger farms managed to do this the same time.  I still believe that unless you're willing to spend extra for extra hands and shifts, and a lot here this won't be possible unless all the farms came to some agreement and all of Foundry and Bitmain and Antpool did it the same time. Why would they? That is another speculation!

just went to a nice german restaurant and eat up 🆙 a storm.

and here I am back to the diff thread.

[mikeywith]

We're discussing and speculating each giving some arguments and not getting convinced by the other's.

I tried to figure out what the exact argument is about but I am not feeling too well, took me like 30 mins to write a 10 mins code, so is it true that you think this is all just luck while phill thinks the 50EH or so was actually present in the previous epoch and vanished today? would appreciate a TL;DR summary of what are you debating so that I don't take sides blindly, although, as usual, if it's a guessing game I rather be on the other side that you are debating given your track record of terrible speculation.

[philipma1957]

We're discussing and speculating each giving some arguments and not getting convinced by the other's.

I tried to figure out what the exact argument is about but I am not feeling too well, took me like 30 mins to write a 10 mins code, so is it true that you think this is all just luck while phill thinks the 50EH or so was actually present in the previous epoch and vanished today? would appreciate a TL;DR summary of what are you debating so that I don't take sides blindly, although, as usual, if it's a guessing game I rather be on the other side that you are debating given your track record of terrible speculation.

I think we are just bullshitting around waiting  for the next epoch.

I side more against variance for this drop and more for retooling.

With last jump being overclock the fuck out of the older s19 pros before you take them off line to sell.


He sides more with luck altering the numbers.

I think ?

[stompix]

I tried to figure out what the exact argument is about but I am not feeling too well,

Sorry to hear that, but you could take Phil's approach and have a dinner tin german restaurant , some greasy bratwurst mit sauerkraut would either make your write that in 2 seconds or quit doing anything for the weekend.
But seriously, if you're not feeling well take care, with all the shit in this world you don't know what a headache might be caused by.

so is it true that you think this is all just luck while phill thinks the 50EH or so was actually present in the previous epoch and vanished today? would appreciate a TL;DR summary of what are you debating so that I don't take sides blindly, although, as usual, if it's a guessing game I rather be on the other side that you are debating given your track record of terrible speculation.

I think that the previous 8% was a fluke by a few percentages, so it was more like 4% than 8% that time and while this one might end -1-2% in reality is actually positive.

Phils' version is :

It is more likely that it was 108 and some miners cranked up hard while waiting to redeploy their new s21's
I now think they pulled a ton go s19's off line and are dumping them at very cheap prices.

Nevermind he answered first.

And btw, even a broken clock is right twice a day.........although I'm digital...

I think we are just bullshitting around waiting  for the next epoch.

I'm saving all the popcorn for the halvening, these few adjustments are like the commercials before the movie, once that kicks in I'm going to watch the diff block by block, hutting all the press releases and hoping it will finally bring some sense in the market.

[mikeywith]

I side more against variance for this drop and more for retooling.

With last jump being overclock the fuck out of the older s19 pros before you take them off line to sell.


He sides more with luck altering the numbers.

Not that I don't want to take sides here, but I am guessing both theories are valid, and I would side with stompy a bit, not fully discarding the abuse-before-you-sell approach which is probably true for many farms (I have traded thousands of used gears and I know a thing or two about the subject), but I think it's more of a variance than the other option, maybe 70%-30% or 60%-40%, but noway it was all just overclocking before you they could sell.

My reasoning behind that is if there was room for 50EH to come online from a sustained overclocking it would have been the case long before, if you can safely abuse these gears for 2 weeks and have enough cooling not to kill them right away, why wait till now? also, usually, and from my own experience, most large sales are done in test and pick-up rather than ship away, someone who wants to buy 10M$ worth of gear would come to inspect the miners, see them run, then by them, those ready to ship are usually small in size.

So, is it possible that 5EH or so was the result of overclocking either for abuse or stress test for clients? yup it is, is a 50EH overclocking sustained for a whole epoch? probably not, so ya I'd guess it's likely a combination of both things with luck having the bigger impact.

I think we will find out soon tho, don't you think? that missing 50EH would come online soon, accompanied with the new gears replacing them, we should then see at least 15-20% increase in difficulty in a month or so time, which I don't think is going to happen, obviously, I could be wrong.

Sorry to hear that, but you could take Phil's approach and have a dinner tin german restaurant , some greasy bratwurst mit sauerkraut would either make your write that in 2 seconds or quit doing anything for the weekend.

Food makes me feel sleepy, especially if it has red meat in it, I sure won't be able to write shit lol, but ya I just had my dinner at 2 AM, going to be my last reply for the night.

But seriously, if you're not feeling well take care, with all the shit in this world you don't know what a headache might be caused by.

Luckily, I know what's causing this one, terrible weather and a lot of real-life work, too much thinking, and lack of sleep.

I'm saving all the popcorn for the halvening, these few adjustments are like the commercials before the movie, once that kicks in I'm going to watch the diff block by block, hutting all the press releases and hoping it will finally bring some sense in the market.

The halving is going to be frustrating to all miners that's for sure, I would hate to see it happen with a price below 60-70k at least, just imagine the price drops to 30-40k right before the halving, that's going to take a lot of popcorn dipped in a chocolate fudge to digest.

[joker_josue]

So, is it possible that 5EH or so was the result of overclocking either for abuse or stress test for clients? yup it is, is a 50EH overclocking sustained for a whole epoch? probably not, so ya I'd guess it's likely a combination of both things with luck having the bigger impact.

But, having a combination of luck during an entire cycle? Well, it really takes a lot of luck.
On the other hand, I also think it's unlikely that anyone will turn their business around selling machines based on difficulty cycles.

So it was probably a combination of these and other factors, which we will most likely never find out.

[mikeywith]

But, having a combination of luck during an entire cycle? Well, it really takes a lot of luck.

3% or more luck variance happens in 9% of epochs, that is a high probability, 4% variance happens in almost 4% of cycles which is still high.

Basically, nearly 1 in 10 epochs is subject to a 3% or more luck, nothing out of the ordinary here, run the code i posted above and you will understand how small of a sample is 2016 blocks with mean of 10 minutes.