2024 Diff thread happy New Years.

[mikeywith]

a huge 5.6% move.

or was last variance wrong. and is this variance wrong.

-3 last time should be -1

that make this 5.6 like 3.6 and tack on over variance of 1 or 2.

so we really added 1 or 2% to the network.

Guessing difficulty has been only getting harder, it's even worse nowadays since we are approaching the halving, you just can't tell what people have in mind, but a 5% is a whole lot of gears and power, I still find it hard to believe that it was not a fluke which would correct itself this epoch.

Mind you, even post halving we would still see unrealistic changes like we did the last halving, it would take a few epochs for things to settle down.

The one thing certain is that anybody paying above 5-6 cents and doesn't have S19 or better, is going to face some serious issues.

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[joker_josue]

a huge 5.6% move.

or was last variance wrong. and is this variance wrong.

-3 last time should be -1

that make this 5.6 like 3.6 and tack on over variance of 1 or 2.

so we really added 1 or 2% to the network.

Could be.  As of today at 72k. which will hurt miners in 30 days. the ½ ing is about 34 days.

I wonder how it is that every 14 days there are such significant movements (5% I think is a lot)!?
I don't see people turning machines on and off every week, to the point of influencing the hash by 5% (up or down).
If this correction occurred every two months, for example, I would understand. Now, this movement is almost weekly.

Is there any logical explanation?

[stompix]

BTC does what BTC wants to do.

I do wonder if those times will not also be over soon, for sure the market is not mature enough, not at all as we look as today's drop and the swings in the last weeks but  in the long run seems to me like it will turn into the same thing as gold, and days of wild trading back in forth 10% would be a thing of the past

I wonder how it is that every 14 days there are such significant movements (5% I think is a lot)!?
I don't see people turning machines on and off every week, to the point of influencing the hash by 5% (up or down).

Mikey did the probabilities a few pages back, things do happen otherwise you would have days with 144,143,143,142,141 blocks and so on as people are adding more gear and block finding is the perfect reflection of added hashrate!
Just like this current stats:

Latest Block:   834806  (4 minutes ago)
Current Pace:   93.9928%  (183 / 194.70 expected, 11.7 behind)

doesn't mean that suddenly ~500k S19 are offline!

We had a - 3.90 % then a + 7.33 % , now a - 2.90 % and a + 5.79 %.
Once you break them in months average and not two weeks periods it stops being that amazing.

[philipma1957]

BTC does what BTC wants to do.

I do wonder if those times will not also be over soon, for sure the market is not mature enough, not at all as we look as today's drop and the swings in the last weeks but  in the long run seems to me like it will turn into the same thing as gold, and days of wild trading back in forth 10% would be a thing of the past

I wonder how it is that every 14 days there are such significant movements (5% I think is a lot)!?
I don't see people turning machines on and off every week, to the point of influencing the hash by 5% (up or down).

Mikey did the probabilities a few pages back, things do happen otherwise you would have days with 144,143,143,142,141 blocks and so on as people are adding more gear and block finding is the perfect reflection of added hashrate!
Just like this current stats:

Latest Block:   834806  (4 minutes ago)
Current Pace:   93.9928%  (183 / 194.70 expected, 11.7 behind)

doesn't mean that suddenly ~500k S19 are offline!

We had a - 3.90 % then a + 7.33 % , now a - 2.90 % and a + 5.79 %.
Once you break them in months average and not two weeks periods it stops being that amazing.

So 100 x .961 = 96.1 x 1.0733. = 103.144 x  .971= 100.153 x 1.0579=105.951

so for the last eight weeks we gained 5.951%

price went up over 20% over last eight weeks.

So we can say there is a floating 6-10% that shifts along with real hash being adding.

[mikeywith]

Phill, there are new gears coming online everyday that's for sure, but the numbers are just massive when you translate them to money and electcity.

We are at roughly 600EH, simple math for those new commers, 1EH = 1,000,000TH.

When we get 1% change in either direction we are talking about 6EH, ,6 million tera hash, Antminet S19 or Whatminer M30 do roughly 100th so you need 60,000 miner to make a 1% change, to make a 5% change you need 60,000*5 or 300k miners.

Using S21 or Whatsminer M60, you can divide the number by 2, so ya for a 5% change it is 150k gears.

Power wise = 150,000* 3.6KW = 540MW, that is the average output of a gas power plant, 10 of them are enough to run a whole country with a small population.

You just can't do this every other epoch, it is too much.

[philipma1957]

Phill, there are new gears coming online everyday that's for sure, but the numbers are just massive when you translate them to money and electcity.

We are at roughly 600EH, simple math for those new commers, 1EH = 1,000,000TH.

When we get 1% change in either direction we are talking about 6EH, ,6 million tera hash, Antminet S19 or Whatminer M30 do roughly 100th so you need 60,000 miner to make a 1% change, to make a 5% change you need 60,000*5 or 300k miners.

Using S21 or Whatsminer M60, you can divide the number by 2, so ya for a 5% change it is 150k gears.

Power wise = 150,000* 3.6KW = 540MW, that is the average output of a gas power plant, 10 of them are enough to run a whole country with a small population.

You just can't do this every other epoch, it is too much.

it must be in no particular order

A) variance
B) adding gear to replace gear. ie s21 for s19
C) the network can down clock and or up clock at will depending on power price /heat/ capacity.
D) some gaming attempts to influence the crowding of the mempool

As for real growth if you look at last 4 jumps we grew 5% if accurate. could we do 30eh in 8 weeks maybe.

[joker_josue]

Is there any information about the total number of ASIC miners that have been produced to date?
And if with these numbers, it is possible to perceive the total hash power that has been manufactured to date?

[mikeywith]

Is there any information about the total number of ASIC miners that have been produced to date?
And if with these numbers, it is possible to perceive the total hash power that has been manufactured to date?

Nop, some of the large orders are public but you can't tell much just by looking at what a few companies bought, there are three major Asic miner manufacturers, Bitmain, MicroBT and Canaan (in order), none of them reveal the info you looking for.

Furthermore, even if we had all that info at hand, you just can't reach a definite conclusion, the real question is, how much power there is and how much it costs everybody to run certain gears.

For all we know, for a country that has a lot of spare electricity can still mine with older gears, we have no clue how many of the old S9, S17, or M20/M20s still run, all we can do is speculate and use common sense although many things in mining don't make much sense anyway.

[stompix]

There is a solution, all you have to do is convince those companies to go public, depending on their listing they will be forced to present their financial data, and have someone leak the details (as most will not be completely public for a lot of reasons, including not aiding the competition) and you might get a number for the last 5 years.
Nothing too complicated, right? 

so for the last eight weeks we gained 5.951%
price went up over 20% over last eight weeks.

hmm, isn't eight weeks in January, so more like over 60%?
Or is 20% per period..
I don't get this!

Anyhow if we want to look deeper into this as if we have nothing else to do, maybe a thing like % increase in income per th/s from last November at 5cents pwe kwh would be an indicator of what we can expect, but, the halving is next month, price is all over the place, and bitdeer has just released ...something..
https://ir.bitdeer.com/news-releases/news-release-details/bitdeer-announces-new-4nm-bitcoin-mining-chip-seal01

So, popcorn with extra fudge times incoming

Latest Block:   834806  (4 minutes ago)
Current Pace:   93.9928%  (183 / 194.70 expected, 11.7 behind)

Latest Block:   834935  (8 minutes ago)
Current Pace:   91.8445%  (312 / 339.70 expected, 27.7 behind)

Only 129 blocks in the last 24 hours, if we go by downclocking this would be the mother of all downclocking in the universe, if not variance maybe more like one huge mining farm shutting down for refitting or maintenance or power failure or ..something!
I can't see anything that might help in the pool distribution, so open theory field:
https://explorer.btc.com/btc/insights-pools

[mikeywith]

There is a solution, all you have to do is convince those companies to go public,

Funny that you quoted Bitdeer News because that is a publicly listed Bitmain branch, you know who is the CEO? Probably even the founder? Jihan Wu, rings a bill?

As for thier new chip its most likely just BM1368 rebranded.

Current pace is 95%, i say we get a small 1% increase or so.

[stompix]

There is a solution, all you have to do is convince those companies to go public,

Funny that you quoted Bitdeer News because that is a publicly listed Bitmain branch, you know who is the CEO? Probably even the founder? Jihan Wu, rings a bill?
As for thier new chip its most likely just BM1368 rebranded.

More like a full Santa's sled full of them, I had my share of popcorn when Wu and Zhan where fighting over at Bitmain.
But even now I have no clue who was right and wrong and if that wasn't just for show and under all that it's business as normal.

The reason I mentioned bitdeer is the chip, they claim it's a 4nm chip, isn't the s21 using 5nm chips?

[Kingperry22]

a huge 5.6% move.

or was last variance wrong. and is this variance wrong.

-3 last time should be -1

that make this 5.6 like 3.6 and tack on over variance of 1 or 2.

so we really added 1 or 2% to the network.

Guessing difficulty has been only getting harder, it's even worse nowadays since we are approaching the halving, you just can't tell what people have in mind, but a 5% is a whole lot of gears and power, I still find it hard to believe that it was not a fluke which would correct itself this epoch.

Mind you, even post halving we would still see unrealistic changes like we did the last halving, it would take a few epochs for things to settle down.

The one thing certain is that anybody paying above 5-6 cents and doesn't have S19 or better, is going to face some serious issues.

You are right the mining difficulties for btc has been on the rise, and with the upcoming halving it is expected to become more challenging. The halving might reduce mining reward making it less profitable especially for those withous less gears.

A 5% increase in difficulty is significant ans it is not only about that but the cost of electricity. However, after the post-halving i geel the market will likely go either ways but the market will be volatile.

Electricity cost has increased nationwide and the cost of efficient mining is the key if not there will be difficulty in attaining the presumed high of the year targetted at 100k

[philipma1957]

Well after the 2021 double top Say nov/dec 2021 to now the diff never really corrected for price.


see the chart below


We just grew like mad. so your profits now suck compared to nov 21 .  yeah you are making money but you are about to get crushed come the ½ ing

Even a move to 100k this week and you then do the ½ ing in 4 weeks you are still far behind Nov 2021

[joker_josue]

Well after the 2021 double top Say nov/dec 2021 to now the diff never really corrected for price.

This is an indication that the hardware is not able to keep up with the market.
We need another leap at a technological level, in relation to mining, to return to more attractive profitability.

I think the last time I really saw this leap was in 2013/2014, when they left GPUs and moved to ASICs.

[philipma1957]

Well after the 2021 double top Say nov/dec 2021 to now the diff never really corrected for price.

This is an indication that the hardware is not able to keep up with the market.
We need another leap at a technological level, in relation to mining, to return to more attractive profitability.

I think the last time I really saw this leap was in 2013/2014, when they left GPUs and moved to ASICs.

no I wish you were correct.  The issue is simple all the gear was added because

6 cent mining made money with s17 s19  s21
and  m20 m30 m50 made money at six cents

all from march 2021 to now.  so big farms kept adding gear and making more power available.

At the current price of 66-67 k  and six cent mining on April 20 or so almost everything will suck for miners.  We may finally see some gear be shut off with some dropping difficulty.

[joker_josue]

At the current price of 66-67 k  and six cent mining on April 20 or so almost everything will suck for miners.  We may finally see some gear be shut off with some dropping difficulty.

But with the increase in the value of BTC, doesn't it create the possibility of increasing the number of connected machines?
For small miners, it could be an opportunity to have more hash, given that the value of BTC is higher.

Well, when you think about it, as the difficulty increases, you end up gaining so little that it still doesn't pay off.
Anyway, we are at a stage where the market is starting to regulate itself, leaving only those with real hashing capacity. And unfortunately this ends up centralizing mining even more.

[philipma1957]

At the current price of 66-67 k  and six cent mining on April 20 or so almost everything will suck for miners.  We may finally see some gear be shut off with some dropping difficulty.

But with the increase in the value of BTC, doesn't it create the possibility of increasing the number of connected machines?
For small miners, it could be an opportunity to have more hash, given that the value of BTC is higher.

Well, when you think about it, as the difficulty increases, you end up gaining so little that it still doesn't pay off.
Anyway, we are at a stage where the market is starting to regulate itself, leaving only those with real hashing capacity. And unfortunately this ends up centralizing mining even more.

Read the history of mining for gold.

Mining alone in the right spot in 1840 you could become super rich.

Not so much now.  ie the easy to find is gone the hard to find needs lots of money to mine it at a profit.

The mine in Clifton NJ has had over 1,600,000 put into it. and over 4000 a month in power for 60 months.

Total in 1.84 million. Total out more than that, but not a lot more.

We started DEC 2018 coins were 6k buying coins has done better than mining ⛏️.

[joker_josue]

We started DEC 2018 coins were 6k buying coins has done better than mining ⛏️.

So what do you think the future of mining will be?
Do you really think everything will be centralized in two or three big players?

[philipma1957]

We started DEC 2018 coins were 6k buying coins has done better than mining ⛏️.

So what do you think the future of mining will be?
Do you really think everything will be centralized in two or three big players?

85% will go to big players maybe 90%.

We will never go to three mines or 10 mines.

I could build you a 1 board s19xp miner that will use 120-240 volts.
 500 to 900 watts.

At your power cost  and no need for heat it is not very good for you even though it is a 24 watts a th machine.  But a lot of people will use it.

Say I build 10000 and sell them all. at 30 th a machine 10,000 is 300000 th or

300ph .

That is .05% of the network. Even if they are really efficient .05 percent scattered in 10,000 homes is not much.


https://pool.laurentiapool.org/#/miners.

I have a  s19xp one board pointed . I will always point a machine there.

That won’t die people will do this but it reduce the percent of small mining to under 10%.

No push for 1 board high quality miners seems to be around.

If you look at bitcointalk mining most push is for tiny ‘fun’ miners with next to zero shot of profit.

these one board s19xp miners will likely lose money but they could make money with a bigger price move.

at my 14 cent power right now they make a little money as I can use the heat.

[Chibit01]

We started DEC 2018 coins were 6k buying coins has done better than mining ⛏️.

So what do you think the future of mining will be?
Do you really think everything will be centralized in two or three big players?

85% will go to big players maybe 90%.

We will never go to three mines or 10 mines.

I could build you a 1 board s19xp miner that will use 120-240 volts.
 500 to 900 watts.

At your power cost  and no need for heat it is not very good for you even though it is a 24 watts a th machine.  But a lot of people will use it.

Say I build 10000 and sell them all. at 30 th a machine 10,000 is 300000 th or

300ph .

That is .05% of the network. Even if they are really efficient .05 percent scattered in 10,000 homes is not much.


https://pool.laurentiapool.org/#/miners.

I have a  s19xp one board pointed . I will always point a machine there.

That won’t die people will do this but it reduce the percent of small mining to under 10%.

No push for 1 board high quality miners seems to be around.

If you look at bitcointalk mining most push is for tiny ‘fun’ miners with next to zero shot of profit.

these one board s19xp miners will likely lose money but they could make money with a bigger price move.

at my 14 cent power right now they make a little money as I can use the heat.

The future of mining lies in the use of renewable energy. Since the construction of green energy on a global scale is quite expensive, it is necessary to eliminate the emergence of excessive power capacity. To do this, it is necessary to find energy consumers with oversupplies. This is where power-intensive mining comes to the rescue. Thanks to the very flexible ability to turn mining systems on and off, they can act as buyers of excess power. With mining, it will not only be possible to use electricity rationally but also to make a faster profit from renewable sources, and such examples already exist.

One of the promising areas of the mining industry will be cloud mining, which, despite its shortcomings, has good prospects for the future. The first perspective is the increasing number of users attracted to cryptocurrency mining using cloud mining. Due to the growing interest in cryptocurrencies, more and more people want to start earning from them. Cloud mining provides the opportunity to make digital money without purchasing and setting up specialized equipment. The second prospect is an improvement in mining technology. Cloud mining companies are constantly working to improve technology to increase the efficiency and profitableness of crypto mining. This can be achieved by using new mining algorithms and improving mining hardware and software.
Source
https://b2binpay.com/en/the-future-of-cryptocurrency-mining/