2024 Diff thread happy New Years.

[mikeywith]

And we have lift off crash, finally! 

Bro, the clock is ticking, you have 53 days for Q2 to finish, and you are going to need a lot of hashrate for the difficulty to make a new ATH, 

Anyway, I think we are already in the middle of the chicken game, we just don't know who is going to crash into who, and how fast is it going to happen, again based on the last halving, we should get at least a 13% drop from before the halving diff, however, the main difference between now and then is the source of that hashrate, as you know, those U.S miners are pretty different from the Chinese, the way money works in the U.S is different, so we may end up with less drop or even a lot larger drop.

Here is an interesting chart from coinshares for BTC production cost for publically listed companies using sec fillings which is somewhat accurate, most large miners don't seem to be in deep trouble according to the data, however, this is a bit old, and things have probably changed.

[philipma1957]

https://newhedge.io/terminal/bitcoin/difficulty-estimator


Latest Block:   842789  (10 minutes ago)
Current Pace:   102.2158%  (102 / 99.79 expected, 2.21 ahead)
Previous Difficulty:   88104191118793.16                           
Current Difficulty:   83148355189239.77                           
Next Difficulty:   between 83380646424767 and 85565224652655
Next Difficulty Change:   between +0.2794% and +2.9067%
Previous Retarget:   Today at 6:53 AM  (-5.6250%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   May 22, 2024 at 11:36 PM  (in 13d 0h 5m 5s)
Next Retarget (latest):   May 23, 2024 at 6:10 AM  (in 13d 6h 39m 0s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 13d 16h 42m 59s and 13d 23h 16m 53s

less than a day in.

we were as high as +11%

we are now+2%

time will tell

[Chibit01]

Bitcoin will definitely grow more than people are even expecting just in few days after downtrend we have been able to uptrend about 12%+1%  and I believe and know that we are getting better at it day by day

[stompix]

Bro, the clock is ticking, you have 53 days for Q2 to finish, and you are going to need a lot of hashrate for the difficulty to make a new ATH, 

53 days....common, plenty of time to prove me wrong again! 
Besides, it's not even that bad, yet!

842,688   2024-05-09 14:00:14   83,148,355,189,239 - 83.15 T   - 5.62 %   0x1703629a   10 min 36 s   595.01 EH/s
840,672   2024-04-24 17:51:52   88,104,191,118,793 - 88.10 T   + 1.99 %   0x170331db   09 min 49 s   630.45 EH/s
838,656   2024-04-11 00:17:33   86,388,558,925,171 - 86.39 T   + 3.92 %   0x17034219   09 min 38 s   618.15 EH/s
836,640   2024-03-28 11:51:03   83,126,997,340,024 - 83.13 T   - 0.98 %   0x170362d3   10 min 06 s   594.93 EH/s

We're at March 28 levels right now, time to go back and look at how I phrased that, and glad  I did it so poorly now:

So, I will double down on this, I see the hashrate at the end of Q2 higher than the week before the halving!

Hmm, technically to win that I would need the hashrate to be above 618.15 Eh, not 630.45 EH, right?
I think it's still doable, with plenty of big guys announcing back in January huge purchases for the year, what's 23 exahash?

The xp is doing 140th for 3000w, the 21pro 234th for 3500w, all I need is 250k of gear replacements!
I know it sounds nuts, but after a guy paid 2 million for a satoshi, 1 billion in "investments" doesn't sound like that much anymore.

the way money works in the U.S is different,

The way it does and the amount available everywhere, this is what 99% of my bet is based on!

[philipma1957]

  yeah credit and tax laws are pretty twisted in the usa. 🇺🇸

I have spent over 1,000,000 usd in credit cards last 30 years. I  paid under 100 in fees and interest and collected over 25,000 in  rebates on that million .  I am a small business yet I can get really good credit.
so good that it is easy to get 50k in gear with no interest for 12 months and a 2000 dollar rebate.

[joker_josue]

so good that it is easy to get 50k in gear with no interest for 12 months and a 2000 dollar rebate.

This makes it easier to make investments in order to develop a business.

It's true that there are other negative things, but in this aspect the US is positive, so things can develop.

[philipma1957]

https://newhedge.io/terminal/bitcoin/difficulty-estimator


Latest Block:   842789  (10 minutes ago)
Current Pace:   102.2158%  (102 / 99.79 expected, 2.21 ahead)
Previous Difficulty:   88104191118793.16                            
Current Difficulty:   83148355189239.77                            
Next Difficulty:   between 83380646424767 and 85565224652655
Next Difficulty Change:   between +0.2794% and +2.9067%
Previous Retarget:   Today at 6:53 AM  (-5.6250%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   May 22, 2024 at 11:36 PM  (in 13d 0h 5m 5s)
Next Retarget (latest):   May 23, 2024 at 6:10 AM  (in 13d 6h 39m 0s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 13d 16h 42m 59s and 13d 23h 16m 53s

less than a day in.

we were as high as +11%

we are now+2%

time will tell

https://newhedge.io/terminal/bitcoin/difficulty-estimator

Latest Block:   843151  (21 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   103.8002%  (464 / 447.01 expected, 16.99 ahead)

Previous Difficulty:   88104191118793.16                            
Current Difficulty:   83148355189239.77                            
Next Difficulty:   between 84457571822537 and 86437739000165
Next Difficulty Change:   between +1.5746% and +3.9560%
Previous Retarget:   last Thursday at 6:53 AM  (-5.6250%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   May 22, 2024 at 6:35 PM  (in 10d 9h 11m 47s)
Next Retarget (latest):   May 23, 2024 at 1:52 AM  (in 10d 16h 29m 13s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 13d 11h 41m 55s and 13d 18h 59m 20s

well we are getting most of the drop right back.

[philipma1957]

https://newhedge.io/terminal/bitcoin/difficulty-estimator


Latest Block:   842789  (10 minutes ago)
Current Pace:   102.2158%  (102 / 99.79 expected, 2.21 ahead)
Previous Difficulty:   88104191118793.16                            
Current Difficulty:   83148355189239.77                            
Next Difficulty:   between 83380646424767 and 85565224652655
Next Difficulty Change:   between +0.2794% and +2.9067%
Previous Retarget:   Today at 6:53 AM  (-5.6250%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   May 22, 2024 at 11:36 PM  (in 13d 0h 5m 5s)
Next Retarget (latest):   May 23, 2024 at 6:10 AM  (in 13d 6h 39m 0s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 13d 16h 42m 59s and 13d 23h 16m 53s

less than a day in.

we were as high as +11%

we are now+2%

time will tell

https://newhedge.io/terminal/bitcoin/difficulty-estimator

Latest Block:   843151  (21 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   103.8002%  (464 / 447.01 expected, 16.99 ahead)

Previous Difficulty:   88104191118793.16                            
Current Difficulty:   83148355189239.77                            
Next Difficulty:   between 84457571822537 and 86437739000165
Next Difficulty Change:   between +1.5746% and +3.9560%
Previous Retarget:   last Thursday at 6:53 AM  (-5.6250%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   May 22, 2024 at 6:35 PM  (in 10d 9h 11m 47s)
Next Retarget (latest):   May 23, 2024 at 1:52 AM  (in 10d 16h 29m 13s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 13d 11h 41m 55s and 13d 18h 59m 20s

well we are getting most of the drop right back.

Latest Block:   843449  (a minute ago)

Current Pace:   101.0203%  (762 / 754.30 expected, 7.7 ahead)

Previous Difficulty:   88104191118793.16                           
Current Difficulty:   83148355189239.77                           
Next Difficulty:   between 83711832149501 and 84071385262268
Next Difficulty Change:   between +0.6777% and +1.1101%
Previous Retarget:   last Thursday at 6:53 AM  (-5.6250%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   May 23, 2024 at 3:29 AM  (in 8d 14h 53m 20s)
Next Retarget (latest):   May 23, 2024 at 4:48 AM  (in 8d 16h 12m 7s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 13d 20h 36m 23s and 13d 21h 55m 10s

close to zero

price is flat

[mikeywith]

53 days....common, plenty of time to prove me wrong again! 
Besides, it's not even that bad, yet!

The way it does and the amount available everywhere, this is what 99% of my bet is based on!

Yup, those large U.S. players who don't mine using their own money are very hard to predict, I am done being sure of their next move, impossible to know what someone who isn't investing their own hard-earned money would do with their mining investment.

  yeah credit and tax laws are pretty twisted in the usa. 🇺🇸

I have spent over 1,000,000 usd in credit cards last 30 years. I  paid under 100 in fees and interest and collected over 25,000 in  rebates on that million .  I am a small business yet I can get really good credit.
so good that it is easy to get 50k in gear with no interest for 12 months and a 2000 dollar rebate.

So what's the catch? I mean where do things go south, if the way money works in the U.S. is so pretty this way, why aren't other countries doing the same? is whatever you described above the cause for the 30 trillion-something debt?

[philipma1957]

53 days....common, plenty of time to prove me wrong again!  
Besides, it's not even that bad, yet!

The way it does and the amount available everywhere, this is what 99% of my bet is based on!

Yup, those large U.S. players who don't mine using their own money are very hard to predict, I am done being sure of their next move, impossible to know what someone who isn't investing their own hard-earned money would do with their mining investment.

 yeah credit and tax laws are pretty twisted in the usa. 🇺🇸

I have spent over 1,000,000 usd in credit cards last 30 years. I  paid under 100 in fees and interest and collected over 25,000 in  rebates on that million .  I am a small business yet I can get really good credit.
so good that it is easy to get 50k in gear with no interest for 12 months and a 2000 dollar rebate.

So what's the catch? I mean where do things go south, if the way money works in the U.S. is so pretty this way, why aren't other countries doing the same? is whatever you described above the cause for the 30 trillion-something debt?

The catch is make the payments timely or you get pillaged.

the deal below spend 500 get 200 back with 15 months to pay.

but they crush you if you miss it.

2/3 of USA people fail at this and get crushed the other 1/3 are like me and benefit from it.

[mikeywith]

The catch is make the payments timely or you get pillaged.

the deal below spend 500 get 200 back with 15 months to pay.

but they crush you if you miss it.

2/3 of USA people fail at this and get crushed the other 1/3 are like me and benefit from it.

Ok, so there is no other catch? I mean, from what I understand, these cash-backs come from the merchants, the bank charges them x % to process your payment, and then the bank gives you some of that x %, so in reality, the end consumer is the one paying for the cash-backs, otherwise, if I was selling something for $10 and the bank charges me $2 only to give you 1$, I could have sold it to you for $9 if the bank charged me 1$ and didn't give you the cash-back, so to me, it seems all illusional to make credit cards users buy more. correct me if I am wrong.

Back to topic for now, we are still flat after 785 blocks

Latest Block:   843472  (17 minutes ago)
Current Pace:   100.0243%  (785 / 784.81 expected, 0.19 ahead)
Previous Difficulty:   88104191118793.16                           
Current Difficulty:   83148355189239.77                           
Next Difficulty:   between 83205544433853 and 83239581706011
Next Difficulty Change:   between +0.0688% and +0.1097%
Previous Retarget:   last Thursday at 1:53 PM  (-5.6250%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   May 23, 2024 at 1:48 PM  (in 8d 13h 7m 0s)
Next Retarget (latest):   May 23, 2024 at 1:50 PM  (in 8d 13h 8m 50s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 13d 23h 55m 6s and 13d 23h 56m 56s

[philipma1957]

https://newhedge.io/terminal/bitcoin/difficulty-estimator

Latest Block:   843472  (19 minutes ago)
Current Pace:   100.0035%  (785 / 784.97 expected, 0.03 ahead)
Previous Difficulty:   88104191118793.16                           
Current Difficulty:   83148355189239.77                           
Next Difficulty:   between 83194736673885 and 83222335781814
Next Difficulty Change:   between +0.0558% and +0.0890%
Previous Retarget:   last Thursday at 6:53 AM  (-5.6250%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   May 23, 2024 at 6:52 AM  (in 8d 13h 9m 33s)
Next Retarget (latest):   May 23, 2024 at 6:53 AM  (in 8d 13h 9m 49s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 13d 23h 59m 17s and 13d 23h 59m 33s


Latest Block:   843472  (20 minutes ago)
Current Pace:   99.9860%  (785 / 785.11 expected, 0.11 behind)
Previous Difficulty:   88104191118793.16                           
Current Difficulty:   83148355189239.77                           
Next Difficulty:   between 83185554108094 and 83207685272088
Next Difficulty Change:   between +0.0447% and +0.0714%
Previous Retarget:   last Thursday at 6:53 AM  (-5.6250%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   May 23, 2024 at 6:55 AM  (in 8d 13h 10m 40s)
Next Retarget (latest):   May 23, 2024 at 6:56 AM  (in 8d 13h 11m 43s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 0h 1m 46s and 14d 0h 2m 49s

we are negative but very early.


as for the promos .  the 2/3 that miss the correct payments  pay for the 1/3 that make the correct payments.

if you don't miss you can make a ton off it.

for instance.

I could get that card and buy 2 of these.


https://vmssecuritycloud.com/product/bitmain-antminer-s17-pro-53th/


cost of 650 get a 2 percent rebate
get 200 right away that is 213

real cost of 650-213= 417  with 15 months to pay.

they do 84 th or $4  a day.  If I have a no cost power spot . I have 420 in 105 days. gear paid off.

and still making $4 away.

I got up to 210kwatts of gear financing most of it like above.  but the power deal died and I am now selling off paid for gear.

[joker_josue]

we are negative but very early.


as for the promos .  the 2/3 that miss the correct payments  pay for the 1/3 that make the correct payments.

if you don't miss you can make a ton off it.

for instance.

I could get that card and buy 2 of these.


https://vmssecuritycloud.com/product/bitmain-antminer-s17-pro-53th/


cost of 650 get a 2 percent rebate
get 200 right away that is 213

real cost of 650-213= 417  with 15 months to pay.

they do 84 th or $4  a day.  If I have a no cost power spot . I have 420 in 105 days. gear paid off.

and still making $4 away.

I got up to 210kwatts of gear financing most of it like above.  but the power deal died and I am now selling off paid for gear.

Without a doubt, this explains why the USA manages to have the largest number of miners in the world.

Over the years, it has been relatively easy to acquire this equipment, with accessible credit mechanisms, quickly obtaining the necessary profit. Of course, a good financial strategy is essential, but if well planned everything would go well.

Now you can still make a profit by selling used equipment.

[philipma1957]

we are negative but very early.


as for the promos .  the 2/3 that miss the correct payments  pay for the 1/3 that make the correct payments.

if you don't miss you can make a ton off it.

for instance.

I could get that card and buy 2 of these.


https://vmssecuritycloud.com/product/bitmain-antminer-s17-pro-53th/


cost of 650 get a 2 percent rebate
get 200 right away that is 213

real cost of 650-213= 417  with 15 months to pay.

they do 84 th or $4  a day.  If I have a no cost power spot . I have 420 in 105 days. gear paid off.

and still making $4 away.

I got up to 210kwatts of gear financing most of it like above.  but the power deal died and I am now selling off paid for gear.

Without a doubt, this explains why the USA manages to have the largest number of miners in the world.

Over the years, it has been relatively easy to acquire this equipment, with accessible credit mechanisms, quickly obtaining the necessary profit. Of course, a good financial strategy is essential, but if well planned everything would go well.

Now you can still make a profit by selling used equipment.

I also can sell all the used gear stack coins or buy all s21's/t21's L7's and mine at a hosting center.

With six or 12 months prepaid power.

I now have
3 t21's
3 s19xp's
2 L7's

this is about  24kwatts of gear which is 24 x 732 x 0.07 = 1230 usd a month power cost.

I have lots of gear to sell on eBay. I will likely setup the above mentioned gear and prepay about 6 months at a center for 7500 or so.

my profit projection for that is 6500 after power, but maybe we take off.

[joker_josue]

I also can sell all the used gear stack coins or buy all s21's/t21's L7's and mine at a hosting center.

I already thought about that. Do you think this really pays off?
Which center would you recommend?

[philipma1957]

I also can sell all the used gear stack coins or buy all s21's/t21's L7's and mine at a hosting center.

I already thought about that. Do you think this really pays off?
Which center would you recommend?

I am trying to cut a deal with one I will post about it if I do.

[Chibit01]

I also can sell all the used gear stack coins or buy all s21's/t21's L7's and mine at a hosting center.

I already thought about that. Do you think this really pays off?
Which center would you recommend?

I am also ready to get a recommendation if it actually pays off which centre do you use as a full recommendation I have accepted it already when I thought about it aswell

[philipma1957]

https://newhedge.io/terminal/bitcoin/difficulty-estimator


Latest Block:   843886  (3 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   101.1979%  (1199 / 1184.81 expected, 14.19 ahead)

Previous Difficulty:   88104191118793.16                            
Current Difficulty:   83148355189239.77                            
Next Difficulty:   between 84018819772858 and 84192019309032
Next Difficulty Change:   between +1.0469% and +1.2552%
Previous Retarget:   May 9, 2024 at 6:53 AM  (-5.6250%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Thursday at 2:54 AM  (in 5d 14h 33m 17s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Thursday at 3:34 AM  (in 5d 15h 12m 28s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 13d 20h 1m 21s and 13d 20h 40m 33s

The price has rallied a bit over 67k and we are at +1%

1th at viabtc pays 5.3 cents

a 200th s21 earns $10.60

at 12 cents it burns  $10.80. A loser

at 11 cents it burns  $  9.90 these two are pretty much losers
at 10 cents it burns  $  9.00 I would not want a big commitment  at this power cost

at   9 cents it burns  $  8.10
at   8 cents it burns  $  7.20
at   7 cents it burns  $  6.30



at   6 cents it burns  $  5.40
at   5 cents it burns  $  4.50
at   4 cents it burns  $  3.60
at   3 cents it burns  $  2.70


As you can see that 6 cent power and top of the line gear is once again pretty darn good margin we always do seem to settle near that for bottom or floor for mining.

https://newhedge.io/terminal/bitcoin/difficulty-estimator

Latest Block:   844006  (25 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   99.4014%  (1319 / 1326.94 expected, 7.94 behind)

Previous Difficulty:   88104191118793.16                           
Current Difficulty:   83148355189239.77                           
Next Difficulty:   between 82692406458875 and 82746643655742
Next Difficulty Change:   between -0.5484% and -0.4831%
Previous Retarget:   May 9, 2024 at 6:53 AM  (-5.6250%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Thursday at 8:40 AM  (in 4d 20h 37m 27s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Thursday at 8:54 AM  (in 4d 20h 51m 58s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 1h 46m 53s and 14d 2h 1m 23s

Still negative. Price is near 66k

[stompix]

Latest Block:   844300  (9 minutes ago)
Current Pace:   100.6715%  (1613 / 1602.24 expected, 10.76 ahead)

Two days left and seem like the hash rate is keeping up, normally we won't be seeing more than a -/+ deviance by the end of this.
Price is obviously helping even with fees hitting a new low so unless we have another shakedown to visit the 60k area I don't see any mining slowdown either.  If anything happens maybe it will be by the end of the month as maybe some other contracts expire or by the end of June as Q2 closes.

It was a bit unexpected but seems that even 5cents/th is enough to keep all this running, and what new and more efficient gear maybe even 4cents per th/s would keep way more 80% of the hash rate active. Besides, with each passing day there is more and more gear that has paid itself off, so it is mining strictly for cost/revenue, no point in shutting it down even if it makes half a dollar a day, it's still half a dollar more than nothing.

Starting to feel more confident in my bet about the hash rate ATH.

[philipma1957]

Latest Block:   844300  (9 minutes ago)
Current Pace:   100.6715%  (1613 / 1602.24 expected, 10.76 ahead)

Two days left and seem like the hash rate is keeping up, normally we won't be seeing more than a -/+ deviance by the end of this.
Price is obviously helping even with fees hitting a new low so unless we have another shakedown to visit the 60k area I don't see any mining slowdown either.  If anything happens maybe it will be by the end of the month as maybe some other contracts expire or by the end of June as Q2 closes.

It was a bit unexpected but seems that even 5cents/th is enough to keep all this running, and what new and more efficient gear maybe even 4cents per th/s would keep way more 80% of the hash rate active. Besides, with each passing day there is more and more gear that has paid itself off, so it is mining strictly for cost/revenue, no point in shutting it down even if it makes half a dollar a day, it's still half a dollar more than nothing.

Starting to feel more confident in my bet about the hash rate ATH.

yeah most big companies have six cent power and a 3.1 kwatt s19 unit burns about 4.50 it earns 5.26

only 76 cents.  but if you slowly pull your s19 and put in a s21 it works out on a financial level.

1000 s19 make 760 in a day in six days pull one swap in a s21.

rinse and repeat.