2024 Diff thread happy New Years.

[stompix]

So now that this is done seems like as expected I missed my prediction of a new ATH in hash rate before the end of Q2, as no matter what happens the next adjustment will be outside of it.But looking back it wasn't that bad, I'm off 20exahas out of 600 so just a 3% drop compared to the adjustment before the halving for me is still low and still pretty unexpected.

And now that 5 cents have become the new norm, with Bitmain unleashing a new basic more efficient we're going to start looking at 4 cents as the average and salivate at 7-8.  I'm starting to think at the mountain of obsolete gear that will pile up once s19 will be out of business, just a few million of them.

[philipma1957]

So now that this is done seems like as expected I missed my prediction of a new ATH in hash rate before the end of Q2, as no matter what happens the next adjustment will be outside of it.But looking back it wasn't that bad, I'm off 20exahas out of 600 so just a 3% drop compared to the adjustment before the halving for me is still low and still pretty unexpected.

And now that 5 cents have become the new norm, with Bitmain unleashing a new basic more efficient we're going to start looking at 4 cents as the average and salivate at 7-8.  I'm starting to think at the mountain of obsolete gear that will pile up once s19 will be out of business, just a few million of them.

bitmain could do well with an uptick in price to 85k. then a two month flat sideways move in 80-88 slot.

[joker_josue]

And now that 5 cents have become the new norm, with Bitmain unleashing a new basic more efficient we're going to start looking at 4 cents as the average and salivate at 7-8.  I'm starting to think at the mountain of obsolete gear that will pile up once s19 will be out of business, just a few million of them.

How do you do these calculations?
I think you already explained this a little, but I ended up not memorizing it. 

[stompix]

And now that 5 cents have become the new norm, with Bitmain unleashing a new basic more efficient we're going to start looking at 4 cents as the average and salivate at 7-8.  I'm starting to think at the mountain of obsolete gear that will pile up once s19 will be out of business, just a few million of them.

How do you do these calculations?
I think you already explained this a little, but I ended up not memorizing it.  

Which one?
About the income? It's pretty simple, hahsrate is still up as we look at 5 cents it means miners and their backers still can afford to let the mine with a combo of the s19 and s21 deployed, taking into account efficiency increase and still a positive inflow of capital we can assume new gear will push profitability below 5 cents, that 4!

The s19xp still brings 3.5$ a day at 5 cents, the s21pro will do 7$, so they will bring down income again for sure if the price doesn't jump!

As for obsolete gear, just taking a snapshot of the hashrate before the new generation was launched and approximating how many s19 would be needed so there are at least 3 million of them, so about 50 000 tones and twice the volume of the statue of liberty if we consider even older gear having just 25% of the hash rate. Aprimation but I don't think I'm that far off.

[philipma1957]

https://www.viabtc.com/

shows 5.18 cents a th

a 100 th s19 does $5.18 pre power cost.

it burns 75 kwatts
cost below
2 cents.   $1.50
3 cents.   $2.25
4 cents.   $3.00
5 cents.   $3.75
6 cents.   $4.50
7 cents.   $5.25
8 cents.   $6.00
9 cents.   $6.75
10 cents  $7.50


so a s19 100th 30 watt machine turns a profit at 6 cent power and has a small loss at 7 cents

to understand these numbers better. Dec 2023 earnings were as high as 13 cents due to bigger block and great fee rates.

large mining firms are slowing ending the s19 and adding s21 or t21

the t21 is good the s21 is good

[joker_josue]

I understand. Do you use a website to make these calculations, or are you just based on the knowledge you already have of this equipment?

[philipma1957]

I understand. Do you use a website to make these calculations, or are you just based on the knowledge you already have of this equipment?

I have over 25 mining units specs in my head at any given time.


s9
s15
s17
s17pro
s19
s19 pro
s19 xp
s21

t15
t21

Avalon 1246
avalon  1066
avalon  1166

what's miner m10
what's miner  m30
what's miner m50

avalon nano 3

antminer l3+
antminer l7

and a lot of  gpus which are more variable depending on what you mine.

if really pressed hard maybe I can go backwards and do

s7
s5
s4
s3

avalon 921
avalon 841
avalon 851

spondoollies sp20

when and if I forget I look them up on YouTube

[joker_josue]

I understand. Do you use a website to make these calculations, or are you just based on the knowledge you already have of this equipment?

I have over 25 mining units specs in my head at any given time.

Do you think it would be interesting to create an online tool to share this knowledge/information?

[alh]

It seems to me that a $60K BTC price won't support a lot of increase in terms of actual new hash rate. Might "accelerate" the turnover of old gear with newer and more efficient gear, all with an associated fiat price cost to do so.

[philipma1957]

It seems to me that a $60K BTC price won't support a lot of increase in terms of actual new hash rate. Might "accelerate" the turnover of old gear with newer and more efficient gear, all with an associated fiat price cost to do so.

60k is hard on any s19 with 6cent power.

you need to buy a s21 or a t21

[joker_josue]

It seems to me that a $60K BTC price won't support a lot of increase in terms of actual new hash rate. Might "accelerate" the turnover of old gear with newer and more efficient gear, all with an associated fiat price cost to do so.

60k is hard on any s19 with 6cent power.

you need to buy a s21 or a t21

Well, it looks like they are already turning off the machines.
This devaluation does not allow older machines to be in operation.

Latest Block:   849363  (16 minutes ago)
Current Pace:   95.7209%  (628 / 656.07 expected, 28.07 behind)
Previous Difficulty:   83716654861184.52                           
Current Difficulty:   83675262295059.9                             
Next Difficulty:   between 80284599685717 and 81856919060370
Next Difficulty Change:   between -4.0522% and -2.1731%
Previous Retarget:   last Thursday at 10:14 AM  (-0.0494%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   July 4, 2024 at 6:08 PM  (in 9d 18h 33m 17s)
Next Retarget (latest):   July 5, 2024 at 1:15 AM  (in 10d 1h 40m 29s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 7h 54m 1s and 14d 15h 1m 13s

[philipma1957]

https://newhedge.io/terminal/bitcoin/difficulty-estimator


Latest Block:   849572  (31 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   93.5883%  (837 / 894.34 expected, 57.34 behind)

Previous Difficulty:   83716654861184.52                            
Current Difficulty:   83675262295059.9                            
Next Difficulty:   between 78446350948757 and 80159583038469
Next Difficulty Change:   between -6.2491% and -4.2016%
Previous Retarget:   last Thursday at 5:14 AM  (-0.0494%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   July 4, 2024 at 8:23 PM  (in 8d 10h 5m 21s)
Next Retarget (latest):   July 5, 2024 at 4:15 AM  (in 8d 17h 57m 43s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 15h 8m 46s and 14d 23h 1m 9s

well miners are shutting down left and right.
price is low.

earnings are 4.8 cents a th this is brutal.



Latest Block:   849746  (7 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   92.2243%  (1011 / 1096.24 expected, 85.24 behind)

Previous Difficulty:   83716654861184.52                           
Current Difficulty:   83675262295059.9                             
Next Difficulty:   between 77278320629415 and 78774950872363
Next Difficulty Change:   between -7.6450% and -5.8563%
Previous Retarget:   June 20, 2024 at 5:14 AM  (-0.0494%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   July 5, 2024 at 2:31 AM  (in 7d 6h 34m 55s)
Next Retarget (latest):   July 5, 2024 at 9:34 AM  (in 7d 13h 37m 20s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 21h 17m 20s and 15d 4h 19m 44s

[stompix]

well miners are shutting down left and right.
price is low.

earnings are 4.8 cents a th this is brutal.

I guess this is the end of a quarter, and half year, possible a lot of small miners have decided to shut down at the end of the month, with higher power bills, and low or negative profit margins, that would be the normal explanation. Of course, there is also the eventuality of a heat wave and power curtailing in the US (??) but I see less than 10 exa fluctuation over at Foundry, that won't be enough.

Current Pace:   92.6261%  (1136 / 1226.44 expected, 90.44 behind)

90 blocks behind, with normal block time we would have emptied the mempool till 2.x sat/vb

[joker_josue]

But will we see a reduction in difficulty of -6% in the next cycle?


Next week, I will present the report on the cycles I have been doing.

[NotFuzzyWarm]

Of course, there is also the eventuality of a heat wave and power curtailing in the US (??)

Um for the past 2 weeks temps in Texas and surrounding areas have already been in the high 90's to over 105F so odds are power curtailments are already in place... The East coast has also been having brutal temps so several smaller farms are cutting back during the daytime.