BTC ATH ~~~

[tertius993]

I discussed exactly this topic, in this thread: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5375808.msg58647849#msg58647849

[1714668110]

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[BABY SHOES]

My question
This Pattern, will it forever return true for every Halving or there could be a possibility of the New ATH not surpassing the successive previous ATH.

I think the pattern is true that every halving will definitely be ATH, but we never know how the future will be but ATH will still exist because the cycle will remain the same as before. That's my own opinion how bitcoin will remain an all-time record.

Is there anyone skeptical about this, I don't think so much because investors know how bitcoin behavior has always set records in 5 years or per halving what I mentioned, this is just speculation others are the same no more than that so just be optimistic, we see the right time next year how bitcoin price movements whether ATH or NOT.

[Marvelman]

I'm  curious about the word "cycle" does this means an endless loop (forever).

Cycles repeat themselves over and over, with each turn kinda resembling the one before.  But that don't mean they got to go on forever.  Cycles can stop, and they can change too as time passes.  From everything we've seen so far, Bitcoin's four-year cycle is becoming less pronounced with each new turn, so I believe that this cycle will stop over time, or maybe shift so that in the future we'll have a bull run right before the halving, or something like that.

[Yaunfitda]

I'm  curious about the word "cycle" does this means an endless loop (forever).

Cycles repeat themselves over and over, with each turn kinda resembling the one before.  But that don't mean they got to go on forever.  Cycles can stop, and they can change too as time passes.  From everything we've seen so far, Bitcoin's four-year cycle is becoming less pronounced with each new turn, so I believe that this cycle will stop over time, or maybe shift so that in the future we'll have a bull run right before the halving, or something like that.

You're right, cycle here is define as every 4 years after the halving, we might see a bull run and new all time high. And this cycle still holds true up to this point so we can say that this year after the halving we might see a massive bull run again till next year 2025.

Currently with the news of a approval of Bitcoin ETF the price or at least the sentiments of the market is already very bullish, just in the last 24 hours, the price keeps going up to $46k and higher. So let's see how far this goes before the halving, who knows, maybe at April we might see or close to our previous all time high of $69k and then the prediction for the next high is at least 6 digits.

[GreatArkansas]

I'm  curious about the word "cycle" does this means an endless loop (forever).

Cycles repeat themselves over and over, with each turn kinda resembling the one before.  But that don't mean they got to go on forever.  Cycles can stop, and they can change too as time passes.  From everything we've seen so far, Bitcoin's four-year cycle is becoming less pronounced with each new turn, so I believe that this cycle will stop over time, or maybe shift so that in the future we'll have a bull run right before the halving, or something like that.

Yep, there's nothing to believe in this. This is also another reason why I started to accumulate Bitcoin last year.
I looked up all the previous Bitcoin block halvings too and most of it just repeats itself.
So for me, I am expecting a new all-time high before the Bitcoin block halving.

[Fundamentals Of]

That's the pattern. That's the 4-year cycle. So there's a reason to believe that the same might once again happen. However that is never an assurance. What happened in the past, even if a number of times already, therefore creating a pattern, might not happen again. So there is always another possibility of it not happening once again. But I think it will happen at least once more. I am almost certain that a new ATH will be reached within 2024 or early 2025.

We just continue hodling. What is certain is that the ATH which was reached way back in November of 2021 will never remain an ATH forever.

[el kaka22]

This is exactly why I keep saying that 2025 will be the real bull year. I have seen it happen three times now, and I think the fourth will be exactly the same as well, there is really no tangible reason why it would be any different, I get that it may "feel" different this time around, and I agree that the feeling is different because we are much higher right now and that's why it feels a little different, but the reality is that we are ending up with something that should not be all that easy to handle.

We need to end up with something that should not be all that smart, it should not be considered to be all that crazy neither, it's just a historical data, we will see it be greater next year, and just go up decently this year.

[Kemarit]

We could all notice that archieved ATHs after a particular Halving surpasses their previous ATH and normally, the long overview chart for the whole BTC price movement is an uptrend..

My question
This Pattern, will it forever return true for every Halving or there could be a possibility of the New ATH not surpassing the successive previous ATH.

Well if the pattern holds true, then we can say that it will be always like that? Remember that every 4 years we have this halving and this is the catalyst. So for me this will continue and I don't think that it's going to break unless there is a drastic change in Bitcoin economy.

So 2024-2025 will still be a bull run, it's just a question on what will be our new all time high.

Prediction is that it will be in 6 digits. And as high as $180,000 - $220,000, but we will have to see. So exciting times ahead for being a Bitcoin enthusiast as this is what we all have been waiting for, block halving - > bull run - ? new all time high.

[Jating]

That's the pattern. That's the 4-year cycle. So there's a reason to believe that the same might once again happen. However that is never an assurance. What happened in the past, even if a number of times already, therefore creating a pattern, might not happen again. So there is always another possibility of it not happening once again. But I think it will happen at least once more. I am almost certain that a new ATH will be reached within 2024 or early 2025.

We just continue hodling. What is certain is that the ATH which was reached way back in November of 2021 will never remain an ATH forever.

Yes, it's the pattern that hasn't been broken, so expect a bull run this year up to 2025, what could be the new all time high, anybody guess but I will speculate around $120k at least, conservative. Also, this has been discussed before, there are some pundits who think that we will see super cycles or bull runs in a different cycle, but so far that theory has been proven false already.

So just sit back and relax, we might be on for something big as this will be the first time that we might touch 6 digits. And also remember that we have the Bitcoin ETF's that has been taking the news as of late and this could really help the price to push to $100k at least.

[Fundamentals Of]

That's the pattern. That's the 4-year cycle. So there's a reason to believe that the same might once again happen. However that is never an assurance. What happened in the past, even if a number of times already, therefore creating a pattern, might not happen again. So there is always another possibility of it not happening once again. But I think it will happen at least once more. I am almost certain that a new ATH will be reached within 2024 or early 2025.

We just continue hodling. What is certain is that the ATH which was reached way back in November of 2021 will never remain an ATH forever.

Yes, it's the pattern that hasn't been broken, so expect a bull run this year up to 2025, what could be the new all time high, anybody guess but I will speculate around $120k at least, conservative. Also, this has been discussed before, there are some pundits who think that we will see super cycles or bull runs in a different cycle, but so far that theory has been proven false already.

So just sit back and relax, we might be on for something big as this will be the first time that we might touch 6 digits. And also remember that we have the Bitcoin ETF's that has been taking the news as of late and this could really help the price to push to $100k at least.

A conservative prediction of $120,000 as a new all time high seems bullish. I'm not as bullish but I'm almost sure that $100,000 will be reached within this year or next year. But I agree with you that a bullish sentiment doesn't necessarily mean that the market will indeed turn like it. It happened in the past. There was a time everybody was wearing laser eyes because everybody was expected that $100,000 is about to come. It didn't.

But Bitcoin is best if your game is hodling and waiting.

[DanWalker]

That's the pattern. That's the 4-year cycle. So there's a reason to believe that the same might once again happen. However that is never an assurance. What happened in the past, even if a number of times already, therefore creating a pattern, might not happen again. So there is always another possibility of it not happening once again. But I think it will happen at least once more. I am almost certain that a new ATH will be reached within 2024 or early 2025.

We just continue hodling. What is certain is that the ATH which was reached way back in November of 2021 will never remain an ATH forever.

Yes, it's the pattern that hasn't been broken, so expect a bull run this year up to 2025, what could be the new all time high, anybody guess but I will speculate around $120k at least, conservative. Also, this has been discussed before, there are some pundits who think that we will see super cycles or bull runs in a different cycle, but so far that theory has been proven false already.

So just sit back and relax, we might be on for something big as this will be the first time that we might touch 6 digits. And also remember that we have the Bitcoin ETF's that has been taking the news as of late and this could really help the price to push to $100k at least.

A conservative prediction of $120,000 as a new all time high seems bullish. I'm not as bullish but I'm almost sure that $100,000 will be reached within this year or next year. But I agree with you that a bullish sentiment doesn't necessarily mean that the market will indeed turn like it. It happened in the past. There was a time everybody was wearing laser eyes because everybody was expected that $100,000 is about to come. It didn't.

But Bitcoin is best if your game is hodling and waiting.

To me, the $120k ATH target is a pretty conservative prediction for bitcoin this bull season. From events like the ETF, the world economy entering a post-crisis recovery phase, halving...all these events will create a super cycle for us and bitcoin could reach 180k-200k$ this time, IMO.
It can be said that the goal of 100k USD is a goal that we have been pursuing for many years and had high expectations during the 2021 bull season, but in the end, it did not happen. But for this bull season, $100k is a fairly modest target as bitcoin's most recent ATH was $69k.

[jaberwock]

I'm  curious about the word "cycle" does this means an endless loop (forever).

Cycles repeat themselves over and over, with each turn kinda resembling the one before.  But that don't mean they got to go on forever.  Cycles can stop, and they can change too as time passes.  From everything we've seen so far, Bitcoin's four-year cycle is becoming less pronounced with each new turn, so I believe that this cycle will stop over time, or maybe shift so that in the future we'll have a bull run right before the halving, or something like that.

Yep, there's nothing to believe in this. This is also another reason why I started to accumulate Bitcoin last year.
I looked up all the previous Bitcoin block halvings too and most of it just repeats itself.
So for me, I am expecting a new all-time high before the Bitcoin block halving.

We can believe on this because sometimes it can happen and sometimes not. So the goal is not only to expect too much. It's hard when you are heavily attached on to something. It may cause you a bad feeling if in case the thing that you are hoping for don't come into reality.

On your explanation, it is seems you believe on the cycle or in the phrase " history repeats itself ", because you bought last year thinking BTC will pump. If you bought at the beginning you are still profiting even though I say that a real pump didn't happened yet. The reason why BTC can rise or possibly pump up before the halving is because people are FOMOing for it. They are too excited for the event.

[pawel7777]

We could all notice that archieved ATHs after a particular Halving surpasses their previous ATH and normally, the long overview chart for the whole BTC price movement is an uptrend..

But we can also notice that each time, the growth % in ATH since the previous one drops significantly. Which is kind of obvious but still worth noting, as there are still people out there hoping for x100 or more in the net cycle just because it happened in the past.
The 2017 ATH was a whooping 1,710% higher than the 2013 top, but 2021 one was "only" 346% higher than 2017 ATH. That's x5 drop.
A x5 drop to the previous 346% means a 69% increase, so around $116k.

[promise444c5]

But we can also notice that each time, the growth % in ATH since the previous one drops significantly. Which is kind of obvious but still worth noting, as there are still people out there hoping for x100 or more in the net cycle just because it happened in the past.
The 2017 ATH was a whooping 1,710% higher than the 2013 top, but 2021 one was "only" 346% higher than 2017 ATH. That's x5 drop.
A x5 drop to the previous 346% means a 69% increase, so around $116k.

I don't quite get the calculation very well can you explain better please

[tertius993]

But we can also notice that each time, the growth % in ATH since the previous one drops significantly. Which is kind of obvious but still worth noting, as there are still people out there hoping for x100 or more in the net cycle just because it happened in the past.
The 2017 ATH was a whooping 1,710% higher than the 2013 top, but 2021 one was "only" 346% higher than 2017 ATH. That's x5 drop.
A x5 drop to the previous 346% means a 69% increase, so around $116k.

I don't quite get the calculation very well can you explain better please

The high following the 2012 halving was $1,242
The high following the 2016 halving was $19,700 - this is 15.9x the 2012 halving high
The high following the 2020 halving was $69,900 - this is 3.5x the 2016 halving high

As you can see the multiplier got smaller from 2016 to 2020. If it continues to reduce in the same way then the 2024 post-halving high is not likely to be more than 1.5-2.0x the 2020 high.  So on that basis somewhere between $105k and $140k.

My view is that we can't actually extrapolate with any accuracy from only a few data points, but see the thread I linked above for a longer discussion comparing the halvings.

[yohananaomi]

To me, the $120k ATH target is a pretty conservative prediction for bitcoin this bull season. From events like the ETF, the world economy entering a post-crisis recovery phase, halving...all these events will create a super cycle for us and bitcoin could reach 180k-200k$ this time, IMO.
It can be said that the goal of 100k USD is a goal that we have been pursuing for many years and had high expectations during the 2021 bull season, but in the end, it did not happen. But for this bull season, $100k is a fairly modest target as bitcoin's most recent ATH was $69k.

The prediction of a price of $100K, which was proclaimed by many analysts to happen in 2021, did not come true, and beyond the very high expectations, it ended up being ATH $68,789, and this is clearly only 2/3 of the analysis that has been believed, but perhaps for the coming period, I think I agree that if it is for $100K, it will be achievable, and it will probably be realized this year before it will form a renewable ATH, which can be guaranteed. Even if it is only 2x the previous ATH, it will be achievable at $130K-$140K.
ETF will certainly provide encouragement for the contribution of trust that can be given, and this could be momentum for more confidence in the development of Bitcoin itself. To be able to make a big contribution, we believe that every time there is an update, it will always lead to improvements in the future.

[dragonvslinux]

My question
This Pattern, will it forever return true for every Halving or there could be a possibility of the New ATH not surpassing the successive previous ATH.

The reality is, no one really knows. The effects of the halving are expected to have less an effect on the market overall, as the inflation continues to drop in half. However this somewhat overlooks the fact that increased usage in Bitcoin (which is also projected) is already started to cause transaction fees for miners to outperform block rewards, so potentially the inverse could also be true to some degree (or balance out at least). Even though transaction fees aren't inflation, the miner rewards are still largely attributed to the overall selling pressure / supply dynamics, as miners have to sell coins to cover costs.

The only theory that is 100% correct, is that a new ATH has always occurred after the halving, which will remain true until this is no longer the case

[YOSHIE]

My question
This Pattern, will it forever return true for every Halving or there could be a possibility of the New ATH not surpassing the successive previous ATH.

Everyone is doing various speculations, we can see and be aware of the Bitcoin ATH that has occurred every four years, where we can find the highest price from several aspects and views.

Everyone probably hopes for ATH this year, we all hope that something new can happen, at least there will be changes that occur in Bitcoin reaching the $100k level, maybe that is all of our hopes for the future.

[sana54210]

My question
This Pattern, will it forever return true for every Halving or there could be a possibility of the New ATH not surpassing the successive previous ATH.

The reality is, no one really knows. The effects of the halving are expected to have less an effect on the market overall, as the inflation continues to drop in half. However this somewhat overlooks the fact that increased usage in Bitcoin (which is also projected) is already started to cause transaction fees for miners to outperform block rewards, so potentially the inverse could also be true to some degree (or balance out at least). Even though transaction fees aren't inflation, the miner rewards are still largely attributed to the overall selling pressure / supply dynamics, as miners have to sell coins to cover costs.

The only theory that is 100% correct, is that a new ATH has always occurred after the halving, which will remain true until this is no longer the case

Inflation could do whatever, we are going to have halving and the price will go up because of it, it's that simple. Just because it may not right away, doesn't mean it's not related neither. Look at the history of bitcoin, you will see that a year after the halving it has always found a new peak, a new ATH price. I do believe that it will be same. I can guarantee you that at some point in 2025 we are going to have something over 68k for sure, it's inevitable and it will happen.

This is at least how I invest, I invest according to this, and I believe it will happen, but that's just my guess, maybe I am right, or maybe I am wrong, if I am right I will make money and if I am wrong then I am going to lose money, but I am willing to invest into this idea.

[Zigabel]

This Pattern, will it forever return true for every Halving or there could be a possibility of the New ATH not surpassing the successive previous ATH.

With the current anticipation of a bull run after the next halving it's expected that Bitcoin gets to a new ATH just like it has done over the years after every bull run Market, it has always record successive scallig up beyond the previous highs to a new one so very likely this period may not be an exception especially with the news of the ETF approval which of course is one of the biggest anticipation of Bitcoin enthusiast over the years, this will mean a lot to Bitcoin investors as it will help their confidence and all this will further add to the price movement of bit now and even in the nearest future.

A new ATH that will surpass the successive previous ATH's  is possible and very much anticipated.