New opinion of PlanB

[kuriboh]

"In 2015, when I bought my first btc at $400, people said bitcoin was dead.

Back in 2015, Bitcoin was considered dead by many. It was right to think so because everyone thought it was a terrible situation.

The picture from 2015 shows what the situation was like.

Bitcoin is not dead but stronger with time and people get more boring to call "Bitcoin is dead" that is shown in the following summary chart.

Yes, saying Bitcoin is dead is getting more and more boring. They didn't see that Bitcoin's journey could have been more stable. It needs time to get stronger. Stabilises over time.

Today, btc is $40k, and S2F model predicts $532k after 2024 halving. People say it is impossible."

A halving after 2024 is not out of the question. The prediction must be precise and time-related. 2024 or 2030 is a good thing. I need time to become stable.

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[Jegileman]

Bitcoin is not dead and cannot be dead. A lot of people saying bitcoin is dead just don’t know what the next movement of bitcoin could be and they just make predictions out of context, hoping that their predictions will go well and they will be praised by the public for given a true verdict about bitcoin. They wanted to use that as a reference but it all turned against them. Now that S2F has predicted the price to be above $500K after the halving, I see that it is a just another speculation by them but this time around in the right direction. Speculation should still remain as speculation and not regarded as true or untrue until when proven with time.

[Zoomic]

It is possible but after 2024 halving is vague prediction with time.

After 2024 halving can be 2025, 2029 or 2033. The prediction must be clear and related to time. Without time, it is a trash prediction.

This will be interesting to see.  If before the next Halving we will see Bitcoin priced at half a million Dollars then I will from then on believe every thing is possible with Bitcoin.

The S2F prediction model is very inaccurate in my opinion.  But we shall see after this Halving.  If it hits the nail twice then it will gain a lot of interest and credibility.

Everything is actually possible with Bitcoin. Many people who knew about Bitcoin when it was first introduced in 2009 would never have believed that Bitcoin price can move from $0 as it was then to $46k as it is today. This is a proof that anything can happen as far as Bitcoin is concerned. But to think of $532k immediately after halving? Sounds kind of unrealistic to me. I don't want to sound like a naysayer but we just have to keep our fingers crossed.


I am a believer of Bitcoin and its growth but $532k speculation immediately after halving is quite an unrealistic prediction which might not even happen anytime soon. Though I am positive that Bitcoin price will go up after the halving but $532k is not coming now. We just have to keep our fingers crossed.

[Hamphser]

"In 2015, when I bought my first btc at $400, people said bitcoin was dead.

In 2019, when btc was $4000, I wrote the S2F article, calling for $55k btc. People said I was crazy.

Today, btc is $40k, and S2F model predicts $532k after 2024 halving. People say it is impossible."

https://twitter.com/100trillionUSD/status/1743944875819552899

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When I see posts like this, I understand that it’s time to sell Bitcoin. Otherwise, I don’t understand who will pay for this holiday of generosity.

Yes, Bitcoin is dead blah blah blah on which this had been a never ending kind of saying on which people would really be just that simply keep telling on things just because they dont know on what the future looks like.
Where are those people who had been saying that Bitcoin is dead when it was still $400 or even on less? Its never been that something new that there would really be that those criticisms of those people who doesnt believe into its potential but later on then did become a solid believer just because Bitcoin did made up a huge slap into their face on the time that it did reached out those non expected all time highs.
Selling out on news? This is always been a known saying on which you would be selling when everyone is really that greedy.It is a common way on trying out to take advantage into these kind of moments.

[hatshepsut93]

In 2019, when btc was $4000, I wrote the S2F article, calling for $55k btc. People said I was crazy.

Today, btc is $40k, and S2F model predicts $532k after 2024 halving. People say it is impossible."

Pretty sure that S2F was predicting above $100k BTC during the last cycle which of course didn't happen. It's just like those moon math charts - they eventually fail and get updated with new price history to extrapolate, and then fail again anyway.

I have my own theory that the price growth is slowing down from cycle to cycle because emission has less and less impact on the supply, so for having some huge price ranges like $500k there needs to be a surge in demand. Here people would start talking about being hedge against inflation, replacing fiat and so on, but Bitcoin failed to perfectly counter inflation and negative economic events, in fact it went down many times during those periods, because it's a high risk asset.

[GreatArkansas]

It is possible but after 2024 halving is vague prediction with time.

After 2024 halving can be 2025, 2029 or 2033. The prediction must be clear and related to time. Without time, it is a trash prediction.

This will be interesting to see.  If before the next Halving we will see Bitcoin priced at half a million Dollars then I will from then on believe every thing is possible with Bitcoin.

The S2F prediction model is very inaccurate in my opinion.  But we shall see after this Halving.  If it hits the nail twice then it will gain a lot of interest and credibility.

The S2F model just became inaccurate last few years ago, for me it's normal, this model is speculation also. Always expect the unexpected, even famous S2F model is failing or becoming inaccurate means, it's extremely difficult to predict the future of Bitcoin.

[davis196]

Today, btc is $40k, and S2F model predicts $532k after 2024 halving. People say it is impossible."

I'm one of those people, who think that a 500K Bitcoin price(or above) is impossible. If such price happens, that would be the biggest "tulip mania" financial bubble in the history of human civilization. Who the hell is going to invest trillions of dollars into buying a financial asset, that has slow transactions and high transaction fees? What's the biggest utility of Bitcoin? Buying at 40K so you could sell at 80K?
I think that a price between 70K and 100K is achievable in a short time frame, there's no way for such price to be sustained for more than 1 or 2 months.

[BTCdragosfera]

"In 2015, when I bought my first btc at $400, people said bitcoin was dead.

Bitcoin is not dead but stronger with time and people get more boring to call "Bitcoin is dead" that is shown in the following summary chart.

https://99bitcoins.com/bitcoin-obituaries/
https://buybitcoinworldwide.com/bitcoin-is-dead/

Today, btc is $40k, and S2F model predicts $532k after 2024 halving. People say it is impossible."

It is possible but after 2024 halving is vague prediction with time.

After 2024 halving can be 2025, 2029 or 2033. The prediction must be clear and related to time. Without time, it is a trash prediction.

PlanB model is wrong. The S2F algo predicts a 2x decrease in supply every 4 years (so an increase in S2F) and this leads to an exponential growth. This should look like a straight line in a log graph but the growth of BTC is curved in a convex fashion (downwards). There is a very precise law for the growth of BTC and it is what I call the BTC Scaling Law.

https://medium.com/quantonomy/btc-scaling-law-model-has-been-right-for-the-last-15-years-real-price-and-model-comparison-5dee5bb495f6

[NotATether]

Today, btc is $40k, and S2F model predicts $532k after 2024 halving. People say it is impossible."

Dude if Bitcoin goes to 532k then this forum will have more money than most startups and OGs and anyone from pre-2021 will basically be rich.

But even this seems outlandish to me, I mean come on, we're just going to skip $100k? Maybe 532k is achievable after 2028, but 2024 is way too soon for this kinda thing.

(Also expect Ordinals and other shit activities to increase hard if this happens)

[BTCdragosfera]

It is possible but after 2024 halving is vague prediction with time.

After 2024 halving can be 2025, 2029 or 2033. The prediction must be clear and related to time. Without time, it is a trash prediction.

This will be interesting to see.  If before the next Halving we will see Bitcoin priced at half a million Dollars then I will from then on believe every thing is possible with Bitcoin.

The S2F prediction model is very inaccurate in my opinion.  But we shall see after this Halving.  If it hits the nail twice then it will gain a lot of interest and credibility.

The S2F model just became inaccurate last few years ago, for me it's normal, this model is speculation also. Always expect the unexpected, even famous S2F model is failing or becoming inaccurate means, it's extremely difficult to predict the future of Bitcoin.

It is not. The price of BTC follows a very precise pattern over the long run. It has done this for exactly 15 years since day one.
It is a power law that is an amazing thing because Power Laws are very important for natural and man-made phenomena:

https://www.ted.com/talks/geoffrey_west_the_surprising_math_of_cities_and_corporations

Not sure why every Bitcoiners doesn't know or understand this. PlanB main contribution was to indicate the halving events create periodic bubbles or oscillations around the very predictable BTC growth pattern. These bubbles are also predictable now and the size of the oscillations also follows precise patterns (the bottoms are more predictable than the tops but we can still identify areas when BTC is overbought or oversold).
See here:

https://medium.com/quantonomy/btc-scaling-law-model-has-been-right-for-the-last-15-years-real-price-and-model-comparison-5dee5bb495f6

[Lucius]

This will be interesting to see.  If before the next Halving we will see Bitcoin priced at half a million Dollars then I will from then on believe every thing is possible with Bitcoin.
~snip~

I think that we have discussed many times in various discussions that it is not too realistic to expect that the price of Bitcoin will increase after the next halvings, as it was in the past. The last 2020 halving "produced" only x3.5 compared to the one before it ($20 -> $69k) and we have to wonder if the next one could cause a price increase of x12 compared to the current value?

Some quite wrongly believe that past events regarding the price can just be repeated, but we cannot consider it the same as raising the price by x10 from $100 to $1000 or doing the same today.

[kryptqnick]

"In 2015, when I bought my first btc at $400, people said bitcoin was dead.

In 2019, when btc was $4000, I wrote the S2F article, calling for $55k btc. People said I was crazy.

Today, btc is $40k, and S2F model predicts $532k after 2024 halving. People say it is impossible."

https://twitter.com/100trillionUSD/status/1743944875819552899

__
When I see posts like this, I understand that it’s time to sell Bitcoin. Otherwise, I don’t understand who will pay for this holiday of generosity.

Huh, if they were so accurate in the past, maybe it's not too much to hope that they'll be right once again. To be honest, my expectations for the upcoming bull market are a lot milder because I believe that each bull market sees the price increasing by a smaller percentage (for example, nearly 20x between 2013 and 2017, but just over 3x for the next bull run). Something over $100k would be great, and $532k sounds way over the top. But yeah, who knows, maybe it can get that high, that fast. In any case, Bitcoin is still a good investment, even if it doesn't bring such impressive profits like it used to.

[yazher]

In this kind of scenario, you can only trust yourself because you are the one who will gonna be successful if your hunch based on your own research about the crypto market is true. You cannot rely on their opinion because most of those kinds of people are just talking without knowing anything about it. Some of them are just blind followers of those who are hostile to bitcoins and they don't have anything good to say whether about the predictions of the price or the good future of bitcoins. therefore, be yourself when it comes to your investment make it solely from your own decision, and build some patience in yourself in order to be successful in your long-term holding of bitcoins.

[bangjoe]

"In 2015, when I bought my first btc at $400, people said bitcoin was dead.

In 2019, when btc was $4000, I wrote the S2F article, calling for $55k btc. People said I was crazy.

Today, btc is $40k, and S2F model predicts $532k after 2024 halving. People say it is impossible."

https://twitter.com/100trillionUSD/status/1743944875819552899

__
When I see posts like this, I understand that it’s time to sell Bitcoin. Otherwise, I don’t understand who will pay for this holiday of generosity.

Basically, predictions cannot be guaranteed to be correct or not when or looking at the accuracy of each prediction has things that cannot be calculated by logic, so someone will consider things that are wildly logical to be considered impossible, as is the case with bitcoin when the price you mentioned, even people who exchange bitcoin for two pizza loya do not have the thought that bitcoin will be this wide in scope.

I myself think the price to $250k is very heavy, but after seeing that bitcoin ETFs that are in big financial markets and can say that they will introduce bitcoin to a wider public it is likely that it will be achieved, but yes we can today hope and think more realistically, at $532k I will definitely sell some, but we will see what is the highest price that bitcoin can touch in this cycle.

[Helena Yu]

It looks impossible we will see $500K in the next year, I won't put a big expectation. I'm expecting $100K we be achieved in the next year, hopefully $200K if ETFs do give a lot impact for people to not fear invest in Bitcoin.

We shouldn't forget PlanB was incorrect predicting the last ATH will hit $100K when the reality it only reached $69K.

[Dunamisx]

"In 2015, when I bought my first btc at $400, people said bitcoin was dead.

In 2019, when btc was $4000, I wrote the S2F article, calling for $55k btc. People said I was crazy.

Today, btc is $40k, and S2F model predicts $532k after 2024 halving. People say it is impossible."

We will keep hearing contrary opinions about bitcoin, as long as we have not approached the halving, everyone will keep saying what they think straight up without having a second thoughts on them, well, it's high time we believe more about bitcoin now, even if we keep having more dips than we expected to see the market running bullish, Bitcoin is having no best time than now, if the interest is there and there's opportunity for an investment, we should do it without looking back before we get a new all time high.

[BTCdragosfera]

"In 2015, when I bought my first btc at $400, people said bitcoin was dead.

In 2019, when btc was $4000, I wrote the S2F article, calling for $55k btc. People said I was crazy.

Today, btc is $40k, and S2F model predicts $532k after 2024 halving. People say it is impossible."

https://twitter.com/100trillionUSD/status/1743944875819552899

__
When I see posts like this, I understand that it’s time to sell Bitcoin. Otherwise, I don’t understand who will pay for this holiday of generosity.

Basically, predictions cannot be guaranteed to be correct or not when or looking at the accuracy of each prediction has things that cannot be calculated by logic, so someone will consider things that are wildly logical to be considered impossible, as is the case with bitcoin when the price you mentioned, even people who exchange bitcoin for two pizza loya do not have the thought that bitcoin will be this wide in scope.

I myself think the price to $250k is very heavy, but after seeing that bitcoin ETFs that are in big financial markets and can say that they will introduce bitcoin to a wider public it is likely that it will be achieved, but yes we can today hope and think more realistically, at $532k I will definitely sell some, but we will see what is the highest price that bitcoin can touch in this cycle.

The price of BTC is absolutely predictable

I made predictions since several years ago about the long-term trajectory of BTC and they turned out to be perfectly true. See here for example (5 years old post):
Here is what I wrote 5 years ago:

https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/9cqi0k/bitcoin_power_law_over_10_year_period_all_the_way/

Here is the updated model, basically the same identical model, so I can predict BTC price over the long term almost perfectly. The model catches all the bottoms and tells us when we are close to the tops.  

https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/18z04kp/15_years_of_btc_power_law/


The BTC Scaling Law model, which is 100x better than S2F model, and for some reason not well known, tells us that if the peak of the cycle is 2 years from now (middle of the cycle) the nominal value of BTC is $125,000 dollars.

The model is great in determining the bottoms but not perfect with the tops. But historically the tops are about 2x the nominal value at that time so we have about $250,000.
We have observed a diminishing return for the tops (also predictable) but it is only 3 data points so it may not be significant. Also, the ETF could push the price higher than $250,000.
So let me make a prediction and you can hold me to it:

Prediction based on the BTC Scaling Law:

Top of the 2024-2028 cycle in a range between $150,000 to $250,000.

If I'm wrong and it goes above $250,000 I will be happy anyway (the model still tells us it would be overbought so sell if you want to cash in and buy at the bottom again).

[BTCdragosfera]

I spent a lot of time thinking why @100trillionUSD S2F model shows a power law relationship between S2F, as he defines it, and the market cap of BTC.
The graph he showed in his first Medium article is pretty convincing and there is a clear power law evident by simple inspection.

At the same time, his model doesn't seem to work well after the last bull market and it seems to deviate even more from the real price. What is going on?

I think when he plotted initially his chart of log10(market value) vs log10(S2F) he accidentally "rediscovered" the time power law.

S2F is not really driving the price of BTC, at least not in the mathematical formulation he envisioned. There is something more fundamental that drives the price consistently because the power law in time relationship is more granular and follows very closely the price during bear markets for example.  The underlying mechanism is related to scarcity but not exactly (maybe other factors have an additional role).

The reason why I think @100trillionUSD merely rediscovered the power law in time law is that one can approximate the S2F behavior with an exponential of time and if one rewrites this exponential as a Taylor expansion the leading power is the power of 2 up to recent times (higher powers start to be more dominant now explaining the deviation from the real data). If you only keep power up to 2 for a mathematical expression of S2F then we can see how @100trillionUSD formula price=A*S2F^3.2 can be rewritten as price=A*(a*t+b*t^2)^3.2 or price~C*t^6.4 that is very similar to the power law price~D*t^5.8.

So he didn't discover a new interesting relationship between price and S2F but his log-log chart revealed indirectly the power law in time (that was already discovered by me a few years before).

@100trillionUSD contribution is still great because he wanted to find a causal mechanism for BTC scaling properties and he focused on a quantity that seemed to make sense but it turns out that the price doesn't respond to S2F exactly as he predicted.

That is fine and he should not have all the hard time he got because this is how you do science anyway, you make a hypothesis and test it. His hypothesis seems in trouble right now and we will see how it plays in the next cycle but I think we have already signs his model deviates from the real price.

The power law in time still holds very well and there is no indication the model is becoming less precise, on the contrary, it is becoming more stable and statistically significant. For BTC holders what is scarce is time not owning BTC, time is running out every day for non-coiners and this reflects directly on the price.

[Xampeuu]

"In 2015, when I bought my first btc at $400, people said bitcoin was dead.

In 2019, when btc was $4000, I wrote the S2F article, calling for $55k btc. People said I was crazy.

Today, btc is $40k, and S2F model predicts $532k after 2024 halving. People say it is impossible."

We will keep hearing contrary opinions about bitcoin, as long as we have not approached the halving, everyone will keep saying what they think straight up without having a second thoughts on them, well, it's high time we believe more about bitcoin now, even if we keep having more dips than we expected to see the market running bullish, Bitcoin is having no best time than now, if the interest is there and there's opportunity for an investment, we should do it without looking back before we get a new all time high.

Having knowledge about Bitcoin is an absolute requirement, so that we can know the characteristics of market movements, so that it is more convenient to know when is the right time to buy and sell it. it will be even easier to invest long term, of course we only need to buy bitcoin, especially now, which still has a big opportunity to increase, so we just have to save it until one day we can sell it with a double profit. Of course it seems easy to imagine, but after doing it we will understand the difficulties experienced

[Ale88]

"In 2015, when I bought my first btc at $400, people said bitcoin was dead.

In 2019, when btc was $4000, I wrote the S2F article, calling for $55k btc. People said I was crazy.

Today, btc is $40k, and S2F model predicts $532k after 2024 halving. People say it is impossible."

https://twitter.com/100trillionUSD/status/1743944875819552899

__
When I see posts like this, I understand that it’s time to sell Bitcoin. Otherwise, I don’t understand who will pay for this holiday of generosity.

I don't give any credit to PlanB, he's model already failed several times and, despite the fact that I'm pretty bullish on bitcoin, especially for the next years, I really don't see how we could reach $500k in a few years, it's just too much. Anyway, if you think this is the right moment to sell bitcoin just do it. If I were you, I wouldn't, but if a tweet is enough for you to make sell then I guess it's ok.