New opinion of PlanB

[Iranus]

It looks impossible we will see $500K in the next year, I won't put a big expectation. I'm expecting $100K we be achieved in the next year, hopefully $200K if ETFs do give a lot impact for people to not fear invest in Bitcoin.

We shouldn't forget PlanB was incorrect predicting the last ATH will hit $100K when the reality it only reached $69K.

Although his prediction of $100K in 2021 was not completely accurate, at least bitcoin reached $69K. That means if his prediction is $500k for the upcoming bull season then bitcoin could also reach $300k or more according to his model.

To be fair, when we think about the $500k goal, it's actually a very large and unlikely goal, but the future is something no one can predict. It may or may not happen, and I don't think we should jump to conclusions and be certain about it. Personally, I still believe that the upcoming bull season will be the biggest bull super cycle ever.

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[BTCdragosfera]

It looks impossible we will see $500K in the next year, I won't put a big expectation. I'm expecting $100K we be achieved in the next year, hopefully $200K if ETFs do give a lot impact for people to not fear invest in Bitcoin.

We shouldn't forget PlanB was incorrect predicting the last ATH will hit $100K when the reality it only reached $69K.

Although his prediction of $100K in 2021 was not completely accurate, at least bitcoin reached $69K. That means if his prediction is $500k for the upcoming bull season then bitcoin could also reach $300k or more according to his model.

To be fair, when we think about the $500k goal, it's actually a very large and unlikely goal, but the future is something no one can predict. It may or may not happen, and I don't think we should jump to conclusions and be certain about it. Personally, I still believe that the upcoming bull season will be the biggest bull super cycle ever.

The BTC Scale Law model (or power law model) is the true BTC price model that has been right for 15 years. It predicts a top of the cycle of 2x the nominal value of $125,000 (trendline value). So in a bullish scenario, we have $250,000. Actually, Plan B is cheating a bit and readjusting the parameters of his model to give $500,000, if he kept the same parameters in his original article the next top will be $1000,000. The Power Law model is more conservative and it accounts for the tapering off of the price with time.

[takuma sato]

It was clear that the ETF was a sell the news event. If you look at the return on investment for BTC and all bitcoin proxies in 2023, you would see that the ETF hype has been frontrun for months, resulting in a bubble that will at least burst forming a local top. 30k is not out of the table, even 25k in some panic wick. Once euphoria cools down then you can start thinking about the real bull run where FOMO will kick in and you will see Bitcoin on TV every day again. This time it will not be a quick sell off on mainstream arrival, it will hang very high for a long time, until a recession or something else kicks in and panic ensues again. Always keep a bag of cash because you never know how high BTC can go but definitely how low as well.

[Richbased]

BTC is surely not dead and it has use cases that will always make it a currency or an asset in demand, so BTC is a long term project and any discussion of BTC failing is simply bullshit. Nevertheless, predictions on the price of BTC can be wrong, there are so many people that have different opinions on how high BTC will pump after the halving, if this person thinks it will go as high as $532k, that's their opinion, but they should be more specific on the date and time, other people are more reserved with their prediction and think BTC will surely get to $100k in 2025, but we don't know who's right until the time comes.

Like how can people be too dependent on speculations, there's never a time the price of Bitcoin will just skyrocket to it's ATH overnight as it takes gradual process for it to attain a speculated ATH but not withstanding, Investors needs not to be too focused on speculations. Bitcoin over the years, have maintained it's volatility and of which we have observed it's price movement for sometime now and it is expected that the price will skyrocket soon, so it will be nice to see Bitcoin reach its speculated ATH but we shouldn't be too desperate about it.

[boyptc]

So, his prediction now is $524k. Not bad, some even say a million and more after several years. The S2F model again is back and I think that he just predicted the wrong time for $100k.

Although it didn't reached that moment, these are predictions and like just some sort of motivation on how high it can be and it's still a hit or miss.

Anyway, with or without it, I'm looking forward to the future and going to HODL.

[ImThour]

$500k for 2024-25 bull run? Not possible. The best Bitcoin will go is to touch $200k and my realistic goal (which I have already posted many times) is $179k.
If someone bought the Bitcoin at the $17k price, he or she will be easily able to make a 10x on their actual cost without worrying about any shitcoin etc.
Easiest bet of my Life I would say

[Fara Chan]

Like how can people be too dependent on speculations, there's never a time the price of Bitcoin will just skyrocket to it's ATH overnight as it takes gradual process for it to attain a speculated ATH but not withstanding, Investors needs not to be too focused on speculations. Bitcoin over the years, have maintained it's volatility and of which we have observed it's price movement for sometime now and it is expected that the price will skyrocket soon, so it will be nice to see Bitcoin reach its speculated ATH but we shouldn't be too desperate about it.

Investors who have been investing in Bitcoin for a long time will definitely not focus too much on any speculation other than focusing on the best news and moments in the crypto space that can really have an effect on Bitcoin. Because those who are used to any conditions when investing, of course will not easily panic with lots of speculation from other people, but the investor will just continue to carry out his plan according to what he wants while investing. And regarding the skyrocketing price and achieving a new ATH on Bitcoin, that is another plus that can be felt by investors who are used to responding to all conditions quite wisely.

[gunhell16]

"In 2015, when I bought my first btc at $400, people said bitcoin was dead.

In 2019, when btc was $4000, I wrote the S2F article, calling for $55k btc. People said I was crazy.

Today, btc is $40k, and S2F model predicts $532k after 2024 halving. People say it is impossible."

https://twitter.com/100trillionUSD/status/1743944875819552899

__
When I see posts like this, I understand that it’s time to sell Bitcoin. Otherwise, I don’t understand who will pay for this holiday of generosity.

Because every time someone says that Bitcoin is dead, Bitcoin becomes more and more alive, and that's what I noticed, and for sure, the person who said that also knew that. I just don't really know what the purpose is or why they say that.

When you bought Bitcoin for around 400$, how many bitcoins were bought at that time in 2015? At that time, because I was new to crypto, I even borrowed money to buy Bitcoin, but no one gave me a loan at that time either. If you had money at that time and you bought at least 2 or 3 bitcoins and you held it until now, for sure the size of your income.

[jubalix]

"In 2015, when I bought my first btc at $400, people said bitcoin was dead.

In 2019, when btc was $4000, I wrote the S2F article, calling for $55k btc. People said I was crazy.

Today, btc is $40k, and S2F model predicts $532k after 2024 halving. People say it is impossible."

https://twitter.com/100trillionUSD/status/1743944875819552899

__
When I see posts like this, I understand that it’s time to sell Bitcoin. Otherwise, I don’t understand who will pay for this holiday of generosity.

Plan B has been wrong so many time - It's no even funny. The NPC t hat follow him deserve the capital de allocation they get.

[BTCdragosfera]

Please take a look at this model.
It has 3 components:

1) Power Law in time 2) sinusoidal oscillations with period 4 years (the first bubble is not modeled because probably due to MtGox and it is not associated with halvings) 3) exponential decay of the peaks over time.

The model does a very good job of following closely the bottoms (almost perfectly) and it can model most of the behavior of the price during the bubbles. The next bubble top should be close to $200K but it depends if we see a continuation of the decay we observed in previous cycles.

I extrapolated the model up to 2033 when the prediction is that BTC will reach 1 M.

https://twitter.com/Giovann35084111/status/1746235708959060220/photo/1

[Jatiluhung]

"In 2015, when I bought my first btc at $400, people said bitcoin was dead.

In 2019, when btc was $4000, I wrote the S2F article, calling for $55k btc. People said I was crazy.

Today, btc is $40k, and S2F model predicts $532k after 2024 halving. People say it is impossible."

https://twitter.com/100trillionUSD/status/1743944875819552899

__
When I see posts like this, I understand that it’s time to sell Bitcoin. Otherwise, I don’t understand who will pay for this holiday of generosity.

Sometimes I also find it very difficult to believe that one day Bitcoin will reach 300k or 500k. But I also don't dare say that it is impossible. Because if I look at the history of the initial price of Bitcoin and then compare it with the current price then it seems impossible. But this seemingly impossible thing has now happened.

So it's possible that even after the halving, things that were considered crazy and impossible will actually come true. Well, all bitcoin holders believe that the future of bitcoin will indeed continue to bring profits if held in the long term.

[Ale88]

It looks impossible we will see $500K in the next year, I won't put a big expectation. I'm expecting $100K we be achieved in the next year, hopefully $200K if ETFs do give a lot impact for people to not fear invest in Bitcoin.

We shouldn't forget PlanB was incorrect predicting the last ATH will hit $100K when the reality it only reached $69K.

Although his prediction of $100K in 2021 was not completely accurate, at least bitcoin reached $69K. That means if his prediction is $500k for the upcoming bull season then bitcoin could also reach $300k or more according to his model.

To be fair, when we think about the $500k goal, it's actually a very large and unlikely goal, but the future is something no one can predict. It may or may not happen, and I don't think we should jump to conclusions and be certain about it. Personally, I still believe that the upcoming bull season will be the biggest bull super cycle ever.

I don't know for you, but for me missing the final target by 30+% is a lot. I have seen way more accurate predictions without using his model, which is nice if you want to play with it but I would never take it seriously. And if he's saying $500k and it reaches $300k (which I don't think it'll happen), would you say that that at the end it was pretty accurate? $200k of difference, is that accurate?

[dezoel]

It looks impossible we will see $500K in the next year, I won't put a big expectation. I'm expecting $100K we be achieved in the next year, hopefully $200K if ETFs do give a lot impact for people to not fear invest in Bitcoin.

We shouldn't forget PlanB was incorrect predicting the last ATH will hit $100K when the reality it only reached $69K.

Although his prediction of $100K in 2021 was not completely accurate, at least bitcoin reached $69K. That means if his prediction is $500k for the upcoming bull season then bitcoin could also reach $300k or more according to his model.

To be fair, when we think about the $500k goal, it's actually a very large and unlikely goal, but the future is something no one can predict. It may or may not happen, and I don't think we should jump to conclusions and be certain about it. Personally, I still believe that the upcoming bull season will be the biggest bull super cycle ever.

No one can predict accurately but all of us are only guessing here. There are times that we can hit our guess correctly, but still I won't consider that as a skill. For the next bull season, everyone only expects $100k. There is now more chance that it will hit because there are a lot of positive things that occur over the 2 years course of Bitcoin run. But if not, we may end up with $80k something (which is still great). Each new bull run is always better than the previous one. And this is why we have this all-time high term.

As for $500k, last time there are several posts and some claims to come from the so-called experts, which states that the said value will occur in 2030 or later dates/year. Maybe that was possible since 2030 is a bit far from 2024.

[mirakal]

You’ll eventually think of selling if you think of short term term profits. But we all know the more we hold for longer years, the bigger the profits we will gain so I think buying and hodling are still the keys. People may have criticized bitcoin’s high volatility but because of that, even our craziest and the most impossible predictions turn out into reality so instead of criticizing it negatively, it turns out to be a big opportunity for us in the crypto market.

Crypto experts and influencers may have come up with various price predictions and it’s also how they envision bitcoin price in the future. But it never guarantees that those will most likely what bitcoin will be. Bitcoin is certainly mysterious and unpredictable, and we’ll only know if it’s really capable to reach those prices when we’ll get there eventually.

[traderethereum]

That is possible when @OP said that the S2F model predicts a bitcoin price of $532k after the halving in 2024. But the problem is that to reach beyond $100k, there must be an extraordinary driving force that can make the price immediately increase very high.
Meanwhile, the price is still at the current price range and is still going up and down and there are no signs of it going up, let alone immediately increasing beyond $50 thousand or even straight up to $70 thousand.
But when that happens, many bitcoin investors who have a lot of bitcoin will sell some but not all of the bitcoin and take the profit.
We will see many people or investors who will instantly become millionaires, which will be life-changing for them and us.
So let's just wait and see what will happen after this halving until the end of 2024.

[Wind_FURY]

"In 2015, when I bought my first btc at $400, people said bitcoin was dead.

In 2019, when btc was $4000, I wrote the S2F article, calling for $55k btc. People said I was crazy.

Today, btc is $40k, and S2F model predicts $532k after 2024 halving. People say it is impossible."

He forgot to say that he failed miserably in his predictions in this cycle, revising them downward as time went on, and yet he was still failing:

Plan B Says Bitcoin Price Still 'on Track Towards $100K' Despite Missing November's Price Prediction (November 2021)

This month, the price of bitcoin sank below the $60K zone this month after reaching an all-time high (ATH) at $69K per unit. The pseudonymous bitcoin analyst and the creator of the bitcoin price model called stock-to-flow (S2F), Plan B, called the last three months of bitcoin prices correctly but the analyst’s “worst-case scenario” forecast missed the mark in November. Despite the recent bitcoin price drop, Plan B still seems confident bitcoin’s price is “on track towards $100K.”

He has invested so much time and effort in his model, and has gained so much fame with it that instead of doing what a scientist would do, which would be to falsify the theory, what he does is to keep reformulating it even though it does not agree with the facts.

The flaw in PlanB's theory is his presumption that merely because Bitcoin has a halving every four years, then the price must increase by some percentage without considering the market demand for Bitcoin. There are many altcoins that have their own halvings but they never follow PlanB's graph according to his hypthosesis.

If he was right, then all coins with inflation halvings every four years should follow the same trajectory like Bitcoin.

[Cryptomultiplier]

That is possible when @OP said that the S2F model predicts a bitcoin price of $532k after the halving in 2024. But the problem is that to reach beyond $100k, there must be an extraordinary driving force that can make the price immediately increase very high.
Meanwhile, the price is still at the current price range and is still going up and down and there are no signs of it going up, let alone immediately increasing beyond $50 thousand or even straight up to $70 thousand.
But when that happens, many bitcoin investors who have a lot of bitcoin will sell some but not all of the bitcoin and take the profit.
We will see many people or investors who will instantly become millionaires, which will be life-changing for them and us.
So let's just wait and see what will happen after this halving until the end of 2024.

The end of 2024 is too far for the current price of BTC to rise even higher by then. Investors know that the price is going to get up to $50k before this month ends or maybe after the halving, but am sure a lot is going to happen just when the halving will occur.
Anyone who buys and HoDL BTC now pending the start of or end of halving, will make two choices which will be to withdraw some during the halving or DCA during same halving.

[shawonngp]

Even still many people think that Bitcoin is a scam coin so don't expect positive comment all of those people. In 2015, 2019 and 2024 those people have been proven wrong.
But i don't want to hope Bitcoin will hit $532K after 2024 halving, It seems 13 times higher from the current price I think it's not realistic.

[Lorence.xD]

That is possible when @OP said that the S2F model predicts a bitcoin price of $532k after the halving in 2024. But the problem is that to reach beyond $100k, there must be an extraordinary driving force that can make the price immediately increase very high.
Meanwhile, the price is still at the current price range and is still going up and down and there are no signs of it going up, let alone immediately increasing beyond $50 thousand or even straight up to $70 thousand.
But when that happens, many bitcoin investors who have a lot of bitcoin will sell some but not all of the bitcoin and take the profit.
We will see many people or investors who will instantly become millionaires, which will be life-changing for them and us.
So let's just wait and see what will happen after this halving until the end of 2024.

The end of 2024 is too far for the current price of BTC to rise even higher by then. Investors know that the price is going to get up to $50k before this month ends or maybe after the halving, but am sure a lot is going to happen just when the halving will occur.
Anyone who buys and HoDL BTC now pending the start of or end of halving, will make two choices which will be to withdraw some during the halving or DCA during same halving.

Indeed, the gap between the prediction of the current Bitcoin's value in the market is huge as you would need some super big event or news that can occur in the following months. even whales sure would take advantage if there's something that could influence Bitcoin's behavior. Many people are already waiting for Bitcoin to reach even for $50k value as they would sell some of their holdings cause profit is still profit, I don't know if that amount of prediction is exaggerated, well people are free to have their speculation in Bitcoin but always remember that it is still involved volatility and there's no guarantee that it would have the same outcome.

[traderethereum]

That is possible when @OP said that the S2F model predicts a bitcoin price of $532k after the halving in 2024. But the problem is that to reach beyond $100k, there must be an extraordinary driving force that can make the price immediately increase very high.
Meanwhile, the price is still at the current price range and is still going up and down and there are no signs of it going up, let alone immediately increasing beyond $50 thousand or even straight up to $70 thousand.
But when that happens, many bitcoin investors who have a lot of bitcoin will sell some but not all of the bitcoin and take the profit.
We will see many people or investors who will instantly become millionaires, which will be life-changing for them and us.
So let's just wait and see what will happen after this halving until the end of 2024.

The end of 2024 is too far for the current price of BTC to rise even higher by then. Investors know that the price is going to get up to $50k before this month ends or maybe after the halving, but am sure a lot is going to happen just when the halving will occur.
Anyone who buys and HoDL BTC now pending the start of or end of halving, will make two choices which will be to withdraw some during the halving or DCA during same halving.

Yes, the end of the year is still too far away, but it won't feel very long. Investors know that the price of bitcoin will rise, but unfortunately, they will not know when the price will reach $50k, whether it will happen this month or in the following months.
But they are still preparing for another high price and are already buying and holding their bitcoins.
Moreover, there will be a halving moment coming soon. Even though many things will happen during the halving, it will not worry investors, especially strong-armed investors.
They will continue to hold bitcoin firmly until the price reaches the target selling price, and then they will sell their bitcoin.