Bullrun top

[ShowOff]

Well, if we look at it historically, I don't think that's entirely true. 

In the 2012 halving, Bitcoin was still in its early stages of development, and adoption was much much lower. 

First halving cycle (November 2012 - July 2016) - Highest price $1,170 (November 2013)   

In the 2016 halving, Bitcoin had gained more traction, and adoption was increasing. The price reached $1040 in 2016, which was still below the previous all-time high from 2013, but very close. The price reached a new ATH in February 2017.

Second halving cycle (July 2016 - May 2020) - Highest price $19,400 (December 2017)   

The price reached $20,000 in 2020 (after the third halving), which surpassed the previous all-time high from 2017. The closing price for BTC in 2020 was $28,994.00, on December 31, which is almost a 50% increase compared to the previous ATH.

So if history repeats itself, we could even see >100k by the end of this year.

sources:
https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/
https://www.statmuse.com/money/ask/bitcoin-price

Well it's pretty much possible if history repeats itself but if Bitcoin breaches previous ATH then the expectations of bull run will be ignited further and $100k will break hell loose as it would be an historic landmark figure which has been predicted for a while. All I would say is that we can expect a repeat of previous cycles but need to be ready for any outcome and have alternative plans in place as crypto is highly unpredictable and there is no guarantee that same trend may repeat though I believe we will see history repeating.

There's nothing wrong with hoping the previous cycle repeats itself, but personally I don't expect too much, especially this year. I don't expect bitcoin price to print a new ATH this year above $69k, but if it happens then I or all of us should be grateful. The cycle may or may not repeat itself, we never know what will happen but history repeats itself every time Bitcoin goes through its halving.

All of us are looking forward to it, but there is also a possibility that the new ATH will fail after the halving because after all the pattern has been studied too much. The potential for failure exists, but I believe the price will be pushed higher due to increased FOMO. We'll see and wait patiently, but to anticipate big spikes, it's best to build a stronger portfolio.

[ScamViruS]

Hi all, long time investor   what's everyones opinion on this bullrun .?... IMO will see a market top q4 2024

It is very difficult to predict where the bullrun top will be, from the past bull market experience, so much excitement is created in the market during the bullrun because fresh money enters the market, people keep buying bitcoins in the hope of profit, as a result of which the market continues to rise. So finding a definite top of the market is very difficult. Checking the history after Bitcoin halving gives an assumption that Bitcoin will enter a bull market, as we have seen in the past that the new Bitcoin ATH crosses quickly after Bitcoin halving. So I expect Bitcoin to perform well this year and cross the new ATH.

[jossiel]

Franky explained it well.

You just have to count it with another year because of the pattern that it has shown in the past. You don't have to be an expert in reading charts or markets by doing so.

If you think that the top will be the Q4 for this year, you might be disappointed but that's fine. We've got all our expectations every after the halving and we might see the start from there or we're already far from that point compared to this time we discuss.

[jaberwock]

I guess I consider myself as a long time investor. I don't have much, but I have been hodling my little Bitcoin for many years already. I have Bitcoin that can be traced back more than 5 years ago. It's small but it's growing little by little.

This bull run will be bigger than any bull run in the past. This bull run, I'm referring to the bull run following the halving in April, is going to get us back to the ATH which was hit more than 2 years ago already. Not only that, this next huge bull run will finally bring us to $100,000 for the first time.

The question is applicable for all, not just to those who are long-term investors, since he is only asking if what we think about the bull run. And there is no right or wrong answers to this. And even if he wants to know if there is a bull run in the quarter four of this year, long-term investors won't still predict it accurately despite having a good experience on this market.

But since there is an upcoming halving, and then the ETF for BTC is already approved, add in the possibility of ETF in ETH, we might really be having that bull run which everyone is hoping about and it may not take too long for it to occur. Maybe second or third quarter, it was already there. And like you said, this bull run is bigger than ever because that is always how it works, with or without positive events.

[GreenStox]

In my opinion, the first time BTC will reach a new ATH above 70k$ is in December this year.
and will continue to rise until 2025.
that is my opinion.

[rodskee]

In my opinion, the first time BTC will reach a new ATH above 70k$ is in December this year.
and will continue to rise until 2025.
that is my opinion.

Wow ATH this December ? then that is one of the best thing that may happen in 2024 but that is if
we will be truly seeing this because what many believes is  the market will grow in the coming year and that is 2025?
some says at least mid summer or in the first quarter of the next year.

[FinePoine0]

The halving will take place in 2024, the year after the halving in 2025, when the Bitcoin price peaks. If you look at the past you can notice that the
year 2013(1.2k BTC price),
2017(19.4k BTC price),
year 2021(69k BTC price),
year 2025(?)
 is likely to be the highest price. Bitcoin price is likely to reach its peak in 2025 according to the opinion of various experts.

[Volimack]

Hi all, long time investor   what's everyones opinion on this bullrun .?... IMO will see a market top q4 2024

With long term investments all investors are very hopeful and looking forward to see the high position of the market. I also believe that the end of this year or the new year in 2025 for bitcoin will bring more surprises. Bitcoin will reach the new ATH it will have to wait to hold bitcoin long term.

[WhyFhy]

with that said. when a pattern is too well known. many people anticipate and plan to beat the pattern, thus breaking the pattern

I was already surprised the previous ATH was "round" instead of a very steep increase followed by a hard collapse.

As much as I expect a new ATH after the halving, there comes a day it won't happen.

just thinking out loud
With most the coin mined up the dynamics will change a little bit as people find new ways to manage a dwindled supply. (I think halving will not be as big of a deal to people once we cross that .78125 point.
Like buying a year earlier. (Not everyone) so it'll speed that year up gap up a little quicker. Untill eventually it's a trend(everybody doing it). Eventually (Everyone) will be loading up in the weeks/month/years before, as soon as that buyer timeframe mindset is crossed supply will vanish and we will see a more regular ATH instead of every 4 years. With less volatility.

[LoyceV]

~and we will see a more regular ATH instead of every 4 years. With less volatility.

Less volatility sounds like a maturing market. But (some) people earn from volatility, and crypto is still much easier to manipulate than other markets (because it's less regulated). Things like the CEO of JP Morgan, who says a certain investment will go to zero. He wouldn't dare say that about regulated stocks, but it's totally fine for Bitcoin.

[Zanab247]

Bitcoin price is likely to reach its peak in 2025 according to the opinion of various experts.

Something good will surely happen to BTC price next year 2025, which is the hope of many long term hodlers in the community because those that predicted for 2024 are planning to change their prediction, because it looks like the price of BTC will not rise above $50k before the end of this year for people to believe what will happen next year.

If you listen to those experts that predicted next year bull run, you will know that they saw something from this current market that made them to conclude that massive bull run will take place fully next year and, you can be part of those that will sell when the price hit $70k next year.

[Ngemmeng]

yes, bullish will occur at the end of the year 2024 or early 2025. we will see a drastic increase in the price of bitcoin and altcoins, my estimate is that the price of bitcoin will touch ATH of at least $150k in the upcoming bull run. This is quite reasonable as $150k is only about 2x the previous ATH.

[justdimin]

yes, bullish will occur at the end of the year 2024 or early 2025. we will see a drastic increase in the price of bitcoin and altcoins, my estimate is that the price of bitcoin will touch ATH of at least $150k in the upcoming bull run. This is quite reasonable as $150k is only about 2x the previous ATH.

This is something that we all believe in, and that makes me a little bit happy, I mean we all try to believe in this and I think there are so many people who has been thinking the same thing which should be fine. If there are so many people who believe in something like this then there are really no reasons out there that would not make it go higher.

I believe that as long as we believe this then we should be fine, I believe that people will buy more and more and with timing it right and correctly you could make some money as well. This isn't all that easy to handle, but it's also not that impossible neither. The best thing to do would be just making sure that you are dealing with something that may not get all that much.

[Davian144]

yes, bullish will occur at the end of the year 2024 or early 2025. we will see a drastic increase in the price of bitcoin and altcoins, my estimate is that the price of bitcoin will touch ATH of at least $150k in the upcoming bull run. This is quite reasonable as $150k is only about 2x the previous ATH.

This is not just about making sense, but also about market conditions in general and also about the time conditions that could allow this to happen. $150K is a very large amount for the next ATH if we compare it with the previous ATH, because if Bitcoin is able to pass the $70K mark it should be considered an ATH. So there is no need to think that it will be easy and can be exactly what you say because it is still possible to miss what you say. This is a prediction and everyone needs to see how the market reacts after the halving within this year.

[serveria.com]

yes, bullish will occur at the end of the year 2024 or early 2025. we will see a drastic increase in the price of bitcoin and altcoins, my estimate is that the price of bitcoin will touch ATH of at least $150k in the upcoming bull run. This is quite reasonable as $150k is only about 2x the previous ATH.

This is not just about making sense, but also about market conditions in general and also about the time conditions that could allow this to happen. $150K is a very large amount for the next ATH if we compare it with the previous ATH, because if Bitcoin is able to pass the $70K mark it should be considered an ATH. So there is no need to think that it will be easy and can be exactly what you say because it is still possible to miss what you say. This is a prediction and everyone needs to see how the market reacts after the halving within this year.

$150k sounds realistic to me. The returns are diminishing, last cycle we pumped what? x3 from the previous ATH? 2017 cycle top was x20! 2013 even more? So we can expect anything between x2-x3 which is roughly $140k-210k.

[lixer]

long time investor   what's everyones opinion on this bullrun .?... IMO will see a market top q4 2024

That's barely going to happen based on the historical charts of Bitcoin because as said by others, the bull run has never created a new all-time high within the same year in which the halving event took place. The current price of Bitcoin is between $42k and $43k, and we just have a month before we enter the halving month which is estimated to be April, for Bitcoin to hit the previous all-time high and make a new record, the price will have to start going up before the halving event.

However, whatever we think or say is solely based on past events and charts and nothing is actual reality and reality can be different from what we might think, so nothing is guaranteed, but based on analysis and general understanding, we shouldn't be expecting a new all-time high within this year.

[thecodebear]

yes, bullish will occur at the end of the year 2024 or early 2025. we will see a drastic increase in the price of bitcoin and altcoins, my estimate is that the price of bitcoin will touch ATH of at least $150k in the upcoming bull run. This is quite reasonable as $150k is only about 2x the previous ATH.

This is not just about making sense, but also about market conditions in general and also about the time conditions that could allow this to happen. $150K is a very large amount for the next ATH if we compare it with the previous ATH, because if Bitcoin is able to pass the $70K mark it should be considered an ATH. So there is no need to think that it will be easy and can be exactly what you say because it is still possible to miss what you say. This is a prediction and everyone needs to see how the market reacts after the halving within this year.

$150k sounds realistic to me. The returns are diminishing, last cycle we pumped what? x3 from the previous ATH? 2017 cycle top was x20! 2013 even more? So we can expect anything between x2-x3 which is roughly $140k-210k.

Yeah $150k is realistic. I think that's probably about the generally agreed upon prediction. Could be a bit lower or a bit higher.

Bull runs are now much smaller than they were last decade, because of diminishing returns as you say. It's much harder to move a trillion dollar market up than a ya know like 10 billion dollar market like it was in 2017.

Last bull run was actually quite small, for various reasons, partially because there was a 50% crash in the middle of it. It only went to barely over half the price I expected. Hopefully nothing like that happens this market cycle.

But also there are more permanent reasons why it was much smaller. I think the main one of those is that in previous bull runs Bitcoin was the main get-rich-quick thing for the tons of new people flooding into the market. But last market cycle meme tokens and random app tokens and NFTs are what got all the hype as the get-rich-quick-scheme for the cryptocurrency bull run. So the new uninformed people, for the first time didn't just mostly flock to Bitcoin, but instead ignored Bitcoin and flocked to whatever the flavor of the month altcoin was. Most of them ended up losing badly because they chased after these useless altcoins or NFTs rather than Bitcoin, but that's what uninformed and inexperienced people do, they chase after the supposed get-rich-quick thing.

And I'm not sure if that's going to change. I expect of the tens of millions of people who flood into the market for the first time (or perhaps come back after leaving during the 2022 crash) over the next 18 months, a lot of them are going to entirely ignore Bitcoin and chase after whatever useless token is currently in the news that week or month for skyrocketing upwards. Missing out on that dumb money craze definitely makes Bitcoin not have the sort of insane peak it used to have last decade during bull markets, like when Bitcoin shot up from $6k to $20k in 6 weeks in 2017. Most of that big doomed to collapse peak is from uninformed people finally getting in at the end of the bull run but now it's going to random altcoins instead of Bitcoin.

In 2021 Bitcoin spent quite a while between the two $60k+ peaks up in the $60,000s or high $50,000s. Because there was no great big push from FOMOing dumb money into Bitcoin. It all went into other stuff.

I don't see NFTs getting that sort of stupid money again, but I'm pretty sure whatever meme token or app tokens get pushed by crypto influencers next year are going to take up a lot of that money and we'll likely again see a rounded top for Bitcoin, perhaps at like $130k-$160k, instead of a huge fast push at the end of the market cycle up another like $50k to around $200k.

The addition of TradFi investors through the ETFs will be another interesting wrinkle on the old bitcoin bull run formula. Will they keep steadily buying through the bull run and even through the bear market, perhaps greatly reducing the depths of the bear market compared to normal? Will they act no different that the bitcoin market participants normal act during the market cycle? Or will they maybe even slow their buying down as the prices get high because they've seen the bitcoin boom/crash cycle before and perhaps are a bit more experienced investors and so perhaps they'll wait out the bull run and then start buying again in the bear market. And how much will their behavior influence the bull market up or down, and the bear market up or down?

[beerlover]

yes, bullish will occur at the end of the year 2024 or early 2025. we will see a drastic increase in the price of bitcoin and altcoins, my estimate is that the price of bitcoin will touch ATH of at least $150k in the upcoming bull run. This is quite reasonable as $150k is only about 2x the previous ATH.

This is not just about making sense, but also about market conditions in general and also about the time conditions that could allow this to happen. $150K is a very large amount for the next ATH if we compare it with the previous ATH, because if Bitcoin is able to pass the $70K mark it should be considered an ATH. So there is no need to think that it will be easy and can be exactly what you say because it is still possible to miss what you say. This is a prediction and everyone needs to see how the market reacts after the halving within this year.

After the halving it should not be all that easy, because right afterwards it is going to take a while, and people think that it will somehow be easy to go up but it will probably months before it happens. I am expecting the start of bull run to be around November, which is still months and months away so it is not going to be an easy thing at all. Do not expect it to have good results that easily, make sure that you are doing the right thing and you are investing into something that will make you some decent money.

If you are in a rush then investing into bitcoin is not the smart way to go, it's like buying lottery tickets when you want short term gain from bitcoin. Only invest and expect profit if you think that you could wait for long term.

[serveria.com]

After the halving it should not be all that easy, because right afterwards it is going to take a while, and people think that it will somehow be easy to go up but it will probably months before it happens. I am expecting the start of bull run to be around November, which is still months and months away so it is not going to be an easy thing at all. Do not expect it to have good results that easily, make sure that you are doing the right thing and you are investing into something that will make you some decent money.

If you are in a rush then investing into bitcoin is not the smart way to go, it's like buying lottery tickets when you want short term gain from bitcoin. Only invest and expect profit if you think that you could wait for long term.

Well, technically we already are in a bull market: after we reached the lowest point of the cycle (and I'm pretty sure we did) bull market starts. Right now it's the worst (and most risky) time to SELL Bitcoin and the best time to BUY Bitcoin. Any money you invest now will most likely double in the next 1.5-2 years. And it's going to be like this until 2025, cycle top and a new ATH.

[bangjoe]

I see many people who are not optimistic that Bitcoin will not reach a new ATH this year (2024) and think that a new ATH will be created in 2025, maybe you can say yes or no will happen, but if the potential to break through the ATH in 2021 this year it could happen this year, which I call the new ATH before the Last ATH that will be formed by bitcoin in 2025 in this cycle, I always feel that the last ATH breakthrough will happen this year then the correction and we will form a new ATH in 2025 of the whole cycle, with the growing popularity of bitcoin will certainly increase adoption in a sustainable manner with the development of bitcoin marketing carried out by companies that market their ETFs, thus also the company if they get more bitcoin demand then they also have to buy more bitcoin so that the value can be 1: 1 with its ETF product.