China's economy is very sick. What to prepare for?

[franky1]

Instead of arguing, we could just help each other. If China is having issues with liquidity, that means they need cash. What can they do to get cash? More sales, the more they sell, the more cash they get.

What to they have that we don't? Cheap resources and cheap labour (not as cheap as it used to be but could drop again).

So what could we do in this case, the whole world could get near free levels of products, very cheap compared to anywhere else, and very good material as well, and in return pay China. China would be like some guy who does garage sale, gets rid of unwanted stuff, and makes money along the way. This is why I think it could be benefiting everyone, both the buyers, and China at the same time.

china is not as bad as what western media is paid to show

however certain people want to suck up to american politics by pretending american decisions to ruin american economy by shutting off china,, has hurt china more to make the american adoring brigade feel happier that their own issues they experience with america are not as bad, or worthy of the effort/impact on america..

EG its like US going to war in the middle east.. normally people should feel angry about american demand to kill its own citizens by political order.. however if by going to war they say how in doing so, it makes america appear the winners(even with loses) that makes it feel like it was worth going to war..

so the real game is america is suffering due to political decision of cutting china off as a supply partner. hurting us consumerism
but to stroke americans to sleep of accepting the issues. they have to pretend the decision is a benefit to america and a harm to non americans that pushed away

funny part is china is actually progressing. once you stop watching western media's version of events

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[stompix]

Instead of arguing, we could just help each other.

Why?

So what could we do in this case, the whole world could get near free levels of products, very cheap compared to anywhere else, and very good material as well, and in return pay China.

Yeah, that boat has sailed a long time ago!
China is not cheap anymore and moreover they have tried to use that as a weapon, so one by one companies are starting to quit China, everyone should look at the labels of the stuff they buy and see that things made in China have been slowly on the replace with a ton of other countries.
And nowhere is that more true than in the US itself:

https://www.businessinsider.com/mexico-us-top-trading-partner-china-economic-nearshoring-trade-agreement-2024-2

Between 2022 and 2023, the value of goods imported to the US from Mexico increased by almost 5%, up to over $475 billion, according to the Commerce Department. Chinese imports fell 20% in the same time period, to $427.2 billion, just slightly above Canada.

Companies are moving out and they are not looking back, they know that once the shitstorm really starts happening the ones left will be in far more trouble, the CCP will need a scapegoat and a piggybank to raid and the ones left will have the same fate as the one that remained in Russia.

This is about global market ripples, not just a falling stock market. Sneezing by China spreads a cold worldwide. Their economic stabilization will affect commodities pricing and trade dynamics.

No it won't, China is not the US!
Look at the stock market, China has lost 7 trillion while the US has gained more than that, just five companies gaining 3 trillions. They are in deep trouble yet the world doesn't care, they are filled with bankruptcy, losing stocks a demographic collapse yet nobody really sees an effect in the western word.

[franky1]

yes china has separated relations with US

now US has to deal with those consequences. and inflation hit US hard
..
china however gave the US the middle finger, asked for a divorce (de-dollarisation) and is now getting into bed forming new deeper relationships with many countries which are also dropping the US

but hey stompix and drbeer want to use western media and western stock markets showing china pulling out(the plan) but want to say its china losing out

china is gaining more trade deals whilst the US is losing trade deals

[WillyAp]

South africa is not dropping the US, India is not dropping the US. Brasil is not dropping the US.
The US is a consumer market, such as the EU. Get over this black and white thought process.

You can play both parts and why not.

[franky1]

South africa is not dropping the US, India is not dropping the US. Brasil is not dropping the US.

BRICS
B  I  S
Brazil
India
South africa
.. its worth researching, welcome to 2024. sorry 2006-10 left you behind

prime examples. 2 decades ago US used to outsource its call centres to india.. now you will see them use the Philippines preferentially
prime examples. 2 decades ago US used to import its fashion from africa/india.. now you will see them use the vietnam/mexico preferentially

The US is a consumer market,

of only 250m earners with cash..

there is upto 7.7billion people that were ignored, less preferred due to US controls/sanctions/trade deals.
so separating from US grasp allows countries to open new independent trade deals with those other 200 countries, without controls by US rule/authority/trade terms&condition

even the UK didnt want american chlorinated chicken even when US was trying to push it into requirements of the trade deals US controlled
(UK franchises of KFC prefered to get chicken from ireland(EU)& UK farms.. not US.. yep i said it KFC didnt want US chicken)

[Kakmakr]

I think the only people that are worried about BRICS are the politicians. The global economy are a living organism, it evolves with changes.

Let's take the early days of the conflict between the Ukraine and Russia as an example...

Three major problems happened at the start of the conflict...

Oil
Fertilizer
Sunflower oil

The global markets saw the challenges and they found alternative markets... farmers changed crops... oil was sold through India... creative alternatives were developed to eventually decrease dependency on oil for heating.. etc etc.

Trade agreements will just change, because markets adapt and "money" talks and bullshit walks.

[franky1]

Trade agreements will just change, because markets adapt and "money" talks and bullshit walks.

when the dust settles, countries will still trade with america.. but more on mutual agreement. instead of slaves to US trade committee/commissions. but first countries need to escape the servitude membership of US trade commissions.. so yea, US are not happy but dont want to look bad so portray the leavers as the losers

[WillyAp]

The US is a consumer market,

of only 250m earners with cash..

there is upto 7.7billion people that were ignored, less preferred due to US controls/sanctions/trade deals.

Oh yes, locally our government only cares about their comrades, leaving those in "their" in misery caused by the same government, the Stalin chicken story applied to humans.

Human nature is to forget about those who are not your kin.
We are simply too many, the times people cared more was before Christianity took hold.

Nature of many politicians is to provide for themselves. 

[franky1]

The US is a consumer market,

of only 250m earners with cash..

there is upto 7.7billion people that were ignored, less preferred due to US controls/sanctions/trade deals.

Oh yes, locally our government only cares about their comrades, leaving those in "their" in misery caused by the same government, the Stalin chicken story applied to humans.

Human nature is to forget about those who are not your kin.
We are simply too many, the times people cared more was before Christianity took hold.

Nature of many politicians is to provide for themselves.  

point is..
even if china wanted to trade with say.. canada..
due to how america positioned itself in the international markets US then started setting the rules of world wide trade meaning even trade between china and canada meant having to follow the law of the US

by china removing itself from US trade commissions as part of brics and de-dollarisation china can actually then do proper mutually agreed terms deals with canada direct without the US stipulations

its like gym memberships
if you cancel the membership. you cannot then be sanctioned with conditions of using the gym facilities or be charged extra membership fees as a fine or be told what to do or not do.. because you are no longer a member.

its like.. if you are not part of nato. then nato cant do anything to you.. which is why nato by not having ukraine or russia as members cant even get involved in the conflict..

countries are wising up that memberships into certain commissions come with conditions. and when conditions get bad. its time to leave and join a different membership with other benefits

china does and will trade with hundreds of countries. just not under the terms of US trade commissions going forward

[DrBeer]

....

china does and will trade with hundreds of countries. just not under the terms of US trade commissions going forward

I agree. China without exports will very quickly slip back to the level of China of the 1970s. An export-oriented economy is a specific economy.
And of course it will trade with many countries, but... for the dollar, because China itself needs stable currencies, and "hundreds of countries" do not need a wrapper called yuan. The yuan will be used only by those who simply have no way out, and they are forced to lie down under China. For example, pariah countries, or countries whose currency is even more unstable than the yuan. I don't know why China needs their worthless fiat currency

[franky1]

....

china does and will trade with hundreds of countries. just not under the terms of US trade commissions going forward

I agree. China without exports will very quickly slip back to the level of China of the 1970s. An export-oriented economy is a specific economy.
And of course it will trade with many countries, but... for the dollar, because China itself needs stable currencies, and "hundreds of countries" do not need a wrapper called yuan. The yuan will be used only by those who simply have no way out, and they are forced to lie down under China. For example, pariah countries, or countries whose currency is even more unstable than the yuan. I don't know why China needs their worthless fiat currency

"wrapper".... (facepalm)
seems YOU are still hanging on to the idea that the east +brics want to go in the direction of "yuanisation" where YOU think china can only work or wants to work or whatever your theory is that in YOUR mind is where YUAN becomes centralised currency of the world

i have told you and others in a few topics of that silliness.. the whole strategy of BRICS and international settlements (i also told you where to look) is not a yuanisationed central reserve..

instead its going towards a model of countries regaining their own independent sovereign currency domestically.. and then mutually bartering (like forex) between each other

EG next gen is hundreds of CBDC all linking to the m-bridge(like a crypto forex exchange) where they mutually agree on exchange rates without the puppet strings of the US

..
you have had plenty of time now to look into brics and the policies built on it. through things like BIS and NDB

[DrBeer]

If the state could not keep Evergrande afloat, and in fact it is letting an entire industry, and one of the key ones, go under the knife, it is an indicator that they are not doing well with money. At the same time, to save the market, they are even trying to "pull out" almost 300 billion dollars, mostly from the offshore accounts of Chinese state companies....
And millitarization and attempts to show "stability" require HUGE sums of money that will simply dissolve without benefiting the economy.
The outflow of investments, loss of markets (the most profitable ones), internal bankruptcies - this can hardly speak in favor of the phrase "they have money"

We are talking about a nation that is ruled by just one person, well not really a person but more like a party, but there is a central power, and they do whatever they want. So if they just print more money, pay the construction workers, and screw the inflation rate, they could actually make all those houses and put people in it. Their money would become worthless overnight, and maybe not zero, like not Argentina levels, they still have a ton of income, but they will lose a lot of value for sure, but they can handle it.

The problem here is not the fact that they can't, they can do it if they want to, but the problem is that it leads to one person making a decision that hurts everyone else. All the people who are not touched by this crisis will get ruined because of it as well.

At the same time, it should be understood that the goals of this person/party are not at all the prosperity and benefit for the population, but exclusively, conditionally "imperial" ambitions. And this is about anything but a happy life of the country's population....
Therefore, the prospects of the Chinese economy are negative, since all the steps are aimed not at "reincarnation" or recovery of the economy, but only for the preservation of power and realization of their, well, it is probably right to say, "political complexes"

[franky1]

Therefore, the prospects of the Chinese economy are negative, since all the steps are aimed not at "reincarnation" or recovery of the economy, but only for the preservation of power and realization of their, well, it is probably right to say, "political complexes"

i do laugh.. because china have special economic zones

i also believe Drbeer(and some others in this topic) probably thinks chinese citizens are forced to use a chinese government app for all currency and social communication.. if that is their belief, please admit it and i can debunk that too easily..

[DrBeer]

Therefore, the prospects of the Chinese economy are negative, since all the steps are aimed not at "reincarnation" or recovery of the economy, but only for the preservation of power and realization of their, well, it is probably right to say, "political complexes"

i do laugh.. because china have special economic zones

i also believe Drbeer(and some others in this topic) probably thinks chinese citizens are forced to use a chinese government app for all currency and social communication.. if that is their belief, please admit it and i can debunk that too easily..

I don’t know what exactly makes you laugh, but... in any case, laughter is a positive emotion, and that’s good
There are free economic zones. For now there are, but it is not a fact that they will remain in the future. If China finally breaks economic ties with the West, will these free economic zones be able to provide the necessary influx of currency? And it's not so funny anymore

"i also believe Drbeer(and some others in this topic) probably thinks Chinese citizens are forced to use a Chinese government app for all currency and social communication.. if that is their belief, please admit it and i can debunk that too easily. ." - this is your assumption, which is unlikely to be confirmed by my previous posts
But restrictions on freedoms are already being observed. the first manifestations are total control of the media, therefore control of cash flows will expand, and then it may follow the scenario of North Korea - a ban on the Internet and instant messengers. It all depends on how much China, or rather the Party, decides to isolate itself from “Western civilization”

[franky1]

ok so you are manifesting maybe's....

chnese is not closing the gates to the chinese wall against all countries.. they are still going to trade internationally. just not through the US trade commissions terms of international trade deals.. they are building a different trade policy...

you seem to have a weird idea in your mind that leaving the dollar is akin to leaving the planet.. being divorced from the planet like north korea..
reality is divorcing america is not divorcing the planet. its instead divorcing the US and joining a more diverse open minded orgy of polygamy

ok so heres the thing..
no china is not forcing people to use apps now, nor is in their plan

as suggested to you many many times to do some research even telling you about the BIS and NDB
what you will learn is the current and future plans and projects of china..
which sound nothing like your manifested maybes

lets take the CBDC of yuan

this is again not some centralised single app where china watch all accounts..
instead its (if you know crypto terminologies and models well enough)

like blockstreams liquid

they federate(multisig) currency into existence on agreement with a dozen payment processors..
this multisig funding tx then becomes the primer that then the dozen payment processors then use for their splits of reserves which they then multisig between the 12 partners, independent of the PBOC transaction for cross service reserve routing(swaps)
then below that each payment processor has its customers..
the customers have a choice of atleast 3 levels of account..
the top is for wealthy/ large/ business/ people that require full KYC disclosure
the mid is for middle class/small business people that require basic KYC disclosure
the bottom is more of the min wage people with not KYC

the PBOC (the bank) create the money at the federated transaction level of payment processor reserves.. but do not have access to the payment processors customers data live
its upto the payment processors to maintain, monitor and report on the customers
when they report on suspicious behavour it gets a investigation that if evident of potential crime the chinese authorities then can request a court order for full listing of transaction history of that customer

its basically how the US fiat system works now, but using crypto rather than oracle/mysql database

[DrBeer]

....
you seem to have a weird idea in your mind that leaving the dollar is akin to leaving the planet.. being divorced from the planet like north korea..
reality is divorcing america is not divorcing the planet. its instead divorcing the US and joining a more diverse open minded orgy of polygamy
....

As I always say - every opinion has a right to exist. That's why I have mine

But you are in vain trying to pass off as my thoughts what you would like to hear

I will answer once again, very simply, with clarifications, perhaps I am not very clear in describing my opinion ! Moving away from classical currencies like dollar or euro in international currencies that are generally accepted by the world economy and world markets is isolation from the world economy. At the same time, I do not deny, and I do not consider it bad that in "local markets", for example between neighboring countries, there can be settlements in local currencies. Moreover, they have NEVER been banned. Including the BRICS member countries, no one has ever prohibited them before!  It works well when countries have mutual interests (exaggerated - you have bananas I need, I have coal you need), but it stops working when there are no such interests (exaggerated - I have bamboo, I need processors, but the seller of processors does not need bamboo). And in the latter case - you need a universal payment asset. And that is the key role of the dollar or the euro.   

I emphasize this word always, international trade, not trade with the US, or for the US, or from the US )  I hope you will remember that I am not talking about the USA

[franky1]

heres the thing.. and a great example you can check right now

in crypto we do NOT need to measure crypto in dollar.. we have just been programmed to do it, out of convenience.

you should know, or atleast take some time to check. if someone wants to buy a novelty hat using bitcoin but the novelty hat guy wants ethereum
you are not forced to do:
($52k rate)-($2.92k rate)
[ btc ] -> [ usd ] -> [ eth ]
 0.1         $5.2k        1.77
on a US commissioned exchange

you actually can find many exchanges that just do:
  (17.76x rate)
[ btc ] -> [ eth ]
   0.1        1.77
where the buyer of the hat then swaps to eth at a rate today of 17.76 and withdraws eth to the seller of the hat
or
where the seller of the hat receives btc then swaps to eth at a rate today of 17.76 and withdraws eth back to himself

..
im from the UK, i use pounds.. if i want euro. i dont need to do £ $ € i can just do £ €

however if i was to use a US trade route via a US trade commission registered distributor .. then i would need to do £ $ €
even if i didnt want $
..
so by resigning/divorcing from the US trade commission, countries can do trade deals more mutually and direct without the US influence
. do you now understand why countries are leaving the US trade commission memberships and setting up a new system of more direct mutual agreement
side-note:
in regards to the bitcoin ETF launches. there is this exact reason why the SEC only accepted ETF under US regulations if the redemptions were done "in-cash" when ETF want to swap btc to move out of one etf and into another. instead of allowing ETF's prefered "in-kind". because the US SEC knows if they allowed "in-kind" they would have weakened the USD and done their own de-dollarisation of allowing swaps not involving USD.
which would have been bad for the US. as they would not be allowed to claim taxes on the in-kind swaps as people wont be touching USD
so the SEC pushed for the "in-cash" redemptions as a rule for filing for US trading on US trade platforms like nasdaq.. to keep USD relevant and required as part of ETF custodianed coin swaps.. but technically not needed in swaps. but put in place just to get the US fingers in the pie(gain jurisdictional control of ETF by making USD relevant to deals)

[DrBeer]

heres the thing.. and a great example you can check right now

in crypto we do NOT need to measure crypto in dollar.. we have just been programmed to do it, out of convenience.

you should know, or atleast take some time to check. if someone wants to buy a novelty hat using bitcoin but the novelty hat guy wants ethereum
you are not forced to do:
($52k rate)-($2.92k rate)
[ btc ] -> [ usd ] -> [ eth ]
 0.1         $5.2k        1.77
on a US commissioned exchange

you actually can find many exchanges that just do:
  (17.76x rate)
[ btc ] -> [ eth ]
   0.1        1.77
where the buyer of the hat then swaps to eth at a rate today of 17.76 and withdraws eth to the seller of the hat
or
where the seller of the hat receives btc then swaps to eth at a rate today of 17.76 and withdraws eth back to himself

..
im from the UK, i use pounds.. if i want euro. i dont need to do £ $ € i can just do £ €

however if i was to use a US trade route via a US trade commission registered distributor .. then i would need to do £ $ €
even if i didnt want $
..
so by resigning/divorcing from the US trade commission, countries can do trade deals more mutually and direct without the US influence
. do you now understand why countries are leaving the US trade commission memberships and setting up a new system of more direct mutual agreement
side-note:
in regards to the bitcoin ETF launches. there is this exact reason why the SEC only accepted ETF under US regulations if the redemptions were done "in-cash" when ETF want to swap btc to move out of one etf and into another. instead of allowing ETF's prefered "in-kind". because the US SEC knows if they allowed "in-kind" they would have weakened the USD and done their own de-dollarisation of allowing swaps not involving USD.
which would have been bad for the US. as they would not be allowed to claim taxes on the in-kind swaps as people wont be touching USD
so the SEC pushed for the "in-cash" redemptions as a rule for filing for US trading on US trade platforms like nasdaq.. to keep USD relevant and required as part of ETF custodianed coin swaps.. but technically not needed in swaps. but put in place just to get the US fingers in the pie(gain jurisdictional control of ETF by making USD relevant to deals)

You've done a really great job of talking about it, giving examples. But it all looks good in a world where the price of goods and services is formed in cryptocurrency. After your detailed explanation, mine looks primitive, but ... the real problem may be much simpler than we realize.  The pounds and euros you cited have an established system of value formation and exchange rate, and there is no wild volatility, so it is familiar, understandable and not a problem for us. But the alternative financial system based on cryptocurrencies does not. They don't even have the concept of real value. Cryptocurrency, because of its model, is not tied to the value of anything, and has purely speculative price formation. Therefore, there will always be ambiguity in determining the value of real goods or services in cryptocurrency

[harapan]

It's no secret that after the Kovid pandemic, China's economy has been hit pretty hard. Further problems were a continuation of the economic confrontation with the U.S., which was not a smart move on China's part, as overestimating its strength is the biggest mistake.
Then there was (and now the problem continues) Evergrande and in general the real estate market and related sectors of the economy....

And the day before yesterday the news came out: China is considering the option of withdrawing 2 trillion yuan ($278 billion) from offshore accounts of state-owned companies to save the record falling stock market. Bloomberg writes about it.
According to people familiar with the matter, Chinese authorities are considering a package of measures to stabilize the falling stock market after previous attempts to restore investor confidence failed and prompted Prime Minister Li Keqiang to call for "forceful" steps.

On the one hand, it seems to be the world's second economy, "the world's factory", nominally "the second pole of the bipolar world", on the other hand, it is no longer possible to hide the problems and it is necessary to take such measures.  The question is: since the situation with the Chinese economy is no longer manageable, and we have to take tough and prompt actions to save the economy - how do you think this will affect the global economy, the crypto market, and what to prepare for?

The economical situation is changing rapidly,there aint anything in particular to prepare for exactly,but just be at alert for whatever that'll seem and supposedly make your living experience an unbearable one for you.We all know the outcome of a recession,recession is a sting to humanity and rest of it.In one way or the other,when something affects a country,it automatically has a bad effect on the next country...it might be China's season now,but be ready for your country's economic depreciation to commence.

[Litzki1990]

On the one hand, I hear the news that the economic condition of China is bad, on the other hand, I see that China is undertaking mega projects and they are working on those mega projects with their own funding. If China's economic situation was so bad, they would struggle to implement the billion dollar projects they have undertaken but they are doing them very naturally. China's economy is strong enough and they will not fall into economic crisis so easily. They have all kinds of technology, besides they export a lot of products and they build various mega projects in most countries of the world, we cannot think of their economic condition as weak. I have faith in China that they can improve their economic condition before they know it can get worse.