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Author Topic: The BIG picture, Price Prediction Chart.  (Read 11788 times)
g4c
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March 29, 2014, 07:09:00 PM
 #1

Below is a logarithmic chart of Bitcoin price history (Bitstamp USD).

In technical analysis, the blue trapezoids are known as "falling pennants", they tend to lead to breakouts.

In overbought conditions, as has been the case in all BTC rises to date, the pennant that follows will almost always breakout to the upside.

In this chart we can see fairly periodic pennants with breakouts to the upside, the price staying within the logarithmic channel.




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March 29, 2014, 07:14:50 PM
 #2

They are increasing in frequency and amplitude.

Any significantly advanced cryptocurrency is indistinguishable from Ponzi Tulips.
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March 29, 2014, 07:17:19 PM
 #3

They are increasing in frequency and amplitude.

Yes, it would appear that way from the data available.

Each over-ring seems more volatile, even on the log scale.

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March 29, 2014, 07:19:44 PM
 #4

Why is the 2011 bubble missing on your chart?
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March 29, 2014, 07:23:01 PM
 #5

What goes up, must come down.




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March 29, 2014, 07:29:12 PM
 #6

Why is the 2011 bubble missing on your chart?

Maybe it doesn't fit the channel... Grin

That's the general problem with TA: Selective perception of a few trends and patterns while in reality there are myriads of possible trends and patterns.

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yes


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March 29, 2014, 07:29:36 PM
 #7

The next phase could take a little longer this time.

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March 29, 2014, 07:31:01 PM
 #8

What goes up, must come down.



Except we are way past 5 waves at this point. Which suggests some other mechanic s are at work.

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March 29, 2014, 07:36:33 PM
 #9

What goes up, must come down.



I wish that would be true to mining difficult  Cheesy

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March 29, 2014, 07:38:06 PM
 #10

Why is the 2011 bubble missing on your chart?

I'm not sure bitstamp data includes it.

here's all bitstamp data in log scale:

http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/bitstampUSD#tgSzm1g10zm2g25zvzl

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March 29, 2014, 07:39:19 PM
 #11

Why is the 2011 bubble missing on your chart?

Maybe it doesn't fit the channel... Grin

That's the general problem with TA: Selective perception of a few trends and patterns while in reality there are myriads of possible trends and patterns.

I think my offering takes a somewhat broader time period than most.

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March 29, 2014, 07:39:43 PM
 #12


Any significantly advanced cryptocurrency is indistinguishable from Ponzi Tulips.
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March 29, 2014, 07:42:26 PM
 #13

What goes up, must may come down.
...

Fixed for you.




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March 29, 2014, 07:44:01 PM
 #14

Except we are way past 5 waves at this point. Which suggests some other mechanic s are at work.

Some bubbles belonged to the same general wave (the two of 2013 for example). Consensus among EW chartists is that bitcoin currently is in a corrective wave C of major wave 3.



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March 29, 2014, 07:50:20 PM
 #15

Why is the 2011 bubble missing on your chart?

Maybe it doesn't fit the channel... Grin

That's the general problem with TA: Selective perception of a few trends and patterns while in reality there are myriads of possible trends and patterns.

I think my offering takes a somewhat broader time period than most.

Yeah I do not doubt that. However it is still selective. There is no assurance that it has any predictive value.

To be clear: I'm not saying the description is wrong or irrational for the time period shown. I just wouldn't use it to predict the future.

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March 29, 2014, 07:52:28 PM
 #16

The next phase could take a little longer this time.

Yes, what's your guess?

Myself, I think breakout may occur sometime before july.

I'm ballparking a 90% chance it will be to the upside.

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March 29, 2014, 07:52:36 PM
 #17

Why is the 2011 bubble missing on your chart?

Maybe it doesn't fit the channel... Grin

That's the general problem with TA: Selective perception of a few trends and patterns while in reality there are myriads of possible trends and patterns.

and this is the general problem with people like you: selective defeatism of analysis is just as dangerous of a bias.

the real answer is that the 2011 bubble is not included in the Bitstamp all-time data, and unfortunately, Gox data has been rendered incomplete on the other end of the timescale Tongue

good observation, John999.

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March 29, 2014, 07:53:09 PM
 #18

What goes up, must come down.



the price wont go back to where it started, because then nothing would've been achieved.
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March 29, 2014, 07:56:50 PM
 #19

the price wont go back to where it started, because then nothing would've been achieved.

It doesn't have to, that chart is just an extreme example. Nevertheless, corrective waves can get fairly close to where previous bubbles took off (see bitcoin in 2011 for example).  



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March 29, 2014, 08:02:22 PM
 #20

Why is the 2011 bubble missing on your chart?

Maybe it doesn't fit the channel... Grin

That's the general problem with TA: Selective perception of a few trends and patterns while in reality there are myriads of possible trends and patterns.

I think my offering takes a somewhat broader time period than most.

Yeah I do not doubt that. However it is still selective. There is no assurance that it has any predictive value.

To be clear: I'm not saying the description is wrong or irrational for the time period shown. I just wouldn't use it to predict the future.

OK, fair enough.

I must say that I took all bitstamp data that is available in bitcoincharts. So if it is selective then it is not by intent.

edit:
a composite of mtgox early days and bitstamp for later days would be great.

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