2024 Elliott Wave

[xxxx123abcxxxx]

[d5000]

I like your boldness to predict a deep dip when nobody expects it anymore

The "running flat" scenario is actually one I can imagine still to happen. The 59-60k area was quite important in the 2024 intermediate corrections: either the dips stopped there or it fell deeper than 57k mostly, and also in the recoveries it took some time to pass that area.

However I think the current price development is mostly news-driven. As far as I understand the Elliott wave theory, news are also a component to evaluate when analyzing in which wave we're in. The euphoria phases of 10+% like yesterday are even more typical for a wave 5. So I only expect such a dip to happen if some negative news loom and thus the sentiment isn't universally bullish anymore. For example, if in December there is no Fed interest rate cut, or if the Microsoft shareholders reject the company to purchase Bitcoins, or Trump makes disappointing announcements, then a panic + long liquidations could actually move the price into these areas again. But in this case I can imagine the scenario to play out similarly to the "running flat" option. If we fall lower than 49-50k, which is of course possible, I can imagine the market will not recover that fast and will probably take several months to return to the current level.

[xxxx123abcxxxx]

I like your boldness to predict a deep dip when nobody expects it anymore

The "running flat" scenario is actually one I can imagine still to happen. The 59-60k area was quite important in the 2024 intermediate corrections: either the dips stopped there or it fell deeper than 57k mostly, and also in the recoveries it took some time to pass that area.

However I think the current price development is mostly news-driven. As far as I understand the Elliott wave theory, news are also a component to evaluate when analyzing in which wave we're in. The euphoria phases of 10+% like yesterday are even more typical for a wave 5. So I only expect such a dip to happen if some negative news loom and thus the sentiment isn't universally bullish anymore. For example, if in December there is no Fed interest rate cut, or if the Microsoft shareholders reject the company to purchase Bitcoins, or Trump makes disappointing announcements, then a panic + long liquidations could actually move the price into these areas again. But in this case I can imagine the scenario to play out similarly to the "running flat" option. If we fall lower than 49-50k, which is of course possible, I can imagine the market will not recover that fast and will probably take several months to return to the current level.

Yes, the scenarios are quite bold, and quite complex, and are probably the least expected scenarios in EW circles.

The average pullback zone across all three counts is around 50K.

Personally, would hope neither of the counts develop since there has been plentiful "election euphoria" buying between 80K-90K, in anticipation of mythical 100K. So, a 'crash' to 50K could be the largest ETF and long liquidation event in Bitcoin history perhaps..?

If either of the counts do unfold, it would likely be a global risk-off news event across all assets (i.e. equities and commodities), perhaps elapsing 1-2 months to bottom.

[nabu05]

FYMO has been building in me for 2 weeks now, was hoping to catch this wave/ whale but now I am fearing a retracement as per any of the 3 scenarios you mentioned.

Appreciate I am not asking for advice, but need to hear it from experts....so whats the plan?

[xxxx123abcxxxx]

FYMO has been building in me for 2 weeks now, was hoping to catch this wave/ whale but now I am fearing a retracement as per any of the 3 scenarios you mentioned.

Appreciate I am not asking for advice, but need to hear it from experts....so whats the plan?

Personally, still think one of the aforementioned scenarios is still in play; hence, expecting a pullback to 50K-60K zone.

Not an expert. Not advice.

[hisslyness]

FYMO has been building in me for 2 weeks now, was hoping to catch this wave/ whale but now I am fearing a retracement as per any of the 3 scenarios you mentioned.

Appreciate I am not asking for advice, but need to hear it from experts....so whats the plan?

Personally, still think one of the aforementioned scenarios is still in play; hence, expecting a pullback to 50K-60K zone.

Not an expert. Not advice.

is there any price movement that would invalidate the above pull back? Could it have already taken place?

[xxxx123abcxxxx]

is there any price movement that would invalidate the above pull back? Could it have already taken place?

The maximum upside for an Irregular B-wave is 2.618 times the length of A-wave.

So, beyond $114,000 would eliminate the B-wave scenarios.

[kunt3p3r]

Your B wave seems more likely an impulse 

[hisslyness]

is there any price movement that would invalidate the above pull back? Could it have already taken place?

The maximum upside for an Irregular B-wave is 2.618 times the length of A-wave.

So, beyond $114,000 would eliminate the B-wave scenarios.

How would it play out if that was the case... considering we are 10K away from that number.

[xxxx123abcxxxx]

How would it play out if that was the case... considering we are 10K away from that number.

If $114,000 is exceeded, then it would suggest the most popular EW count, i.e. wave-3 uptrend has been underway ever since the low of 05-AUG-2024.

Personally, would be surprised with this count since the wave-2 downtrend was quite shallow, and the beginnings of the supposed wave-3 uptrend is corrective waves, so still have doubts.

[hisslyness]

How would it play out if that was the case... considering we are 10K away from that number.

If $114,000 is exceeded, then it would suggest the most popular EW count, i.e. wave-3 uptrend has been underway ever since the low of 05-AUG-2024.

Personally, would be surprised with this count since the wave-2 downtrend was quite shallow, and the beginnings of the supposed wave-3 uptrend is corrective waves, so still have doubts.

Thanks for the quick reply...

I was more wondering how you would see the entire EW cycle play out.... will we pull back from 114k or do we keep marching up and how far, are you still projecting a top of 379k for this cycle?

[xxxx123abcxxxx]

Thanks for the quick reply...

I was more wondering how you would see the entire EW cycle play out.... will we pull back from 114k or do we keep marching up and how far, are you still projecting a top of 379k for this cycle?

As per the following chart, there are a number of potential Fibonacci-based zones where there could be a potential interim top, prior to $114,000.

Depending upon the count, whether either impulsive or corrective, there could be a pullback of either -20% or -40% respectively.

As for the grand top, unknown yet, will need more waves to unfold to begin estimating.
The $379,000 figure is assuming PRIMARY[5] equals PRIMARY[3] wave; however, PRIMARY[5] could truncate or extend.

[hisslyness]

Thanks for the quick reply...

I was more wondering how you would see the entire EW cycle play out.... will we pull back from 114k or do we keep marching up and how far, are you still projecting a top of 379k for this cycle?

As per the following chart, there are a number of potential Fibonacci-based zones where there could be a potential interim top, prior to $114,000.

Depending upon the count, whether either impulsive or corrective, there could be a pullback of either -20% or -40% respectively.

As for the grand top, unknown yet, will need more waves to unfold to begin estimating.
The $379,000 figure is assuming PRIMARY[5] equals PRIMARY[3] wave; however, PRIMARY[5] could truncate or extend.

Thanks, Steve! I truly appreciate your insights and expertise on EW Theory. While I’m not the biggest fan of TA, there’s something about EW Theory that just clicks with me for some reason!

Keep us updated when you have more information. This is one of two threads i always check!

[Typex]

I doubt we will see $379K.  Every cycle has had diminishing returns.

[pizzapotential]

A B-wave reaching a 2x extension, is on higher tf probably previously unseen in BTC. And, I would expect that that continues to be the case.

[xxxx123abcxxxx]

A B-wave reaching a 2x extension, is on higher tf probably previously unseen in BTC. And, I would expect that that continues to be the case.

Yes, if its indeed a B-wave, at 2.236 extension (so far), it would probably be the largest Bitcoin has done, on a higher timeframe.

Most recent B-wave was from Dec 2023 to Jan 2024, and was almost 2.00 extension, albeit on a smaller timeframe...

[xxxx123abcxxxx]

[pizzapotential]

a key difference from the B wave of 2021, is that this markup from 50k to 108k, is like a straight line with few dips until recently. Just like one can argue that it is corrective a-b-c, one can argue that what looks corrective is a series of 1-2 waves (1-2-1 looks exactly like a-b-c), followed by a straight markup (w3) without much discussion (volatility).
And when there is doubt about what is a-b-c or 1-2-1, I think one should look at velocity and volatility. But obviously there are no certainties. And I am thinking high velocity is biased bullish as well as low volatility being biased bullish.