How many times we will make the same mistake? - History repeats Again & Again!

[Minor Miner]

Let us see if someone would have invested
$1000 in Gold ten years ago,
or bought $1000 worth of real estate property.
Or if he invested $1000 to buy Bitcoin. How it would be then?


As the Gold-USD chart below shows, you would be at around 2x profit now based on gold's current market value.
your portfolio might be turned into 2000 USD.



If we consider Real Estate properties, you might have made a maximum of 10x to 15x profit in the last 10 years.
It depends on where you are living, but I don't think it could go more than 15x.


Now let's see what would have happened if you had invested in Bitcoin 10 years ago! The lowest price of Bitcoin since 2014 till now was around $150. So if I bought Bitcoin at that time, I could buy about 6.5 Bitcoin with 1000 dollars.
According to the chart below the current price of which would be about 345996 USD. About 34600% return . 350x profit would have been possible.


Bitcoin has been giving such profits for about 12 to 13 years, I don't think anything else in the world can give so much ROI in such a short period of time. But where is the problem with our trust in Bitcoin?

Now you may say yes 10 years ago there was an opportunity to invest in Bitcoin. I know you missed that opportunity even I missed it but everyone knows that Bitcoin price will reach 100k or 150k. Even JP Morgan, who is strongly opposed to Bitcoin, says that the price of Bitcoin will increase.
So those who missed the previous rally should not try to catch the current rally? Will we make the same mistake again and again?

Maybe 10 years from now in 2034 someone will be doing this same calculation, that 10 years ago in 2024 if we bought Bitcoin we would have made 34600% profit. At that time maybe the price of Bitcoin will rise at 8 digits! Maybe I won't be around then but Bitcoin will be fine.

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[mk4]

Maybe 10 years from now in 2034 someone will be doing this same calculation, that 10 years ago in 2024 if we bought Bitcoin we would have made 34600% profit. At that time maybe the price of Bitcoin will rise at 8 digits! Maybe I won't be around then but Bitcoin will be fine.

Bitcoin obviously wouldn't grow with those multiples anymore especially not with the same timespan; but it doesn't change the fact that bitcoin will very likely still be a very attractive asset to buy and hold for long periods. Multiplier will be far lower, but volatility will likely be far lower as well(which can be attractive for some people).

[bobbybkk]

I think a reasonable approach to investing in Bitcoin lets say 1000 USD is :


The worst what can happen is that you lose the 1000 USD.

The best what can happen is that you make possibly 350 x profit = 350 000 USD

So maybe worth the risk to invest in Bitcoin...

[Maus0728]

I wouldn't say mistake though, some people just don't really like the idea of risking in bitcoin, remember that bitcoin is a volatile investment, much more so than gold and real estate so it really does make a difference why some people still have some doubts. It's also worth noting that along the way in 10 years of hodling bitcoin, there's going to be times when you'll be tempted to sell because bitcoin despite it's volatile nature, growth can still be shown in years so you might not even be getting a full profit out of that in 10 years.

[Upgrade00]

Maybe 10 years from now in 2034 someone will be doing this same calculation, that 10 years ago in 2024 if we bought Bitcoin we would have made 34600% profit. At that time maybe the price of Bitcoin will rise at 8 digits! Maybe I won't be around then but Bitcoin will be fine.

Past events are not indicative of future performances. The price increase during the first ten years of Bitcoin cannot be replicated over the next decades. It was starting from zero then and had a huge ceiling to be able to grow. We are still early now but definitely not starting from zero; an increase of $34600% from this point should be putting 1BTC at around a billion dollars, that's not realistic, except a supersonic inflation hits and fiat currencies becomes almost valueless.

[I_Anime]

Maybe 10 years from now in 2034 someone will be doing this same calculation, that 10 years ago in 2024 if we bought Bitcoin we would have made 34600% profit. At that time maybe the price of Bitcoin will rise at 8 digits! Maybe I won't be around then but Bitcoin will be fine

This really amazing. The others investment like gold and real estate was still nice. But can't be compared to bitcoin great changes in price in the past 10 years. Though I'm not actually sure bitcoin could hit 34600% but this stage of bitcoin is still an early one and bitcoin still got alot of break through undergo and hitting 100k+ is one of such but more is yet to come.

Yeah alot people missed that great opportunity even myself also, but am not risky it in missing any such opportunities again. I'm really glad I've already started using DCAing in such wonderful investment (investing in bitcoin) and I know as time goes on my portfolio would keep on getting mature or growing. And would try and disciplining my self to avoid the urge of selling my investment in an premature state. Because holding for long-term is my aim.

[cabron]

Yes if we are just going to be talking about how much profit has been made in 10 years in investing gold vs real estate property vs Bitcoin, BTC beats them all.
One would be super rich by now if they just knew from the beginning that BTC is less than $1000.

Bitcoin has been giving such profits for about 12 to 13 years, I don't think anything else in the world can give so much ROI in such a short period of time. But where is the problem with our trust in Bitcoin?

The problem I think lies in the media since they are muting the information about BTC to the public. All they know is crypto is a scam. Institutions and JP Morgan said it too late when the price went to the roof while the recession already struck.

But when it's about history repeating itself, the scams of this world are also repeating over and over. Who knows if all these including BTC will turn out to be a scam, after all, this is just experimental.

[m2017]

Bitcoin has been giving such profits for about 12 to 13 years, I don't think anything else in the world can give so much ROI in such a short period of time. But where is the problem with our trust in Bitcoin?

The problem is that bitcoin showed such crazy profitability because the cryptoindustry was new, financial injections (investments) into which very quickly inflated capitalization.

Now you may say yes 10 years ago there was an opportunity to invest in Bitcoin. I know you missed that opportunity even I missed it but everyone knows that Bitcoin price will reach 100k or 150k. Even JP Morgan, who is strongly opposed to Bitcoin, says that the price of Bitcoin will increase.
So those who missed the previous rally should not try to catch the current rally? Will we make the same mistake again and again?

The subsequent rally will probably not be as rapid as over the past 10 years.

Maybe 10 years from now in 2034 someone will be doing this same calculation, that 10 years ago in 2024 if we bought Bitcoin we would have made 34600% profit. At that time maybe the price of Bitcoin will rise at 8 digits! Maybe I won't be around then but Bitcoin will be fine.

I don’t dream of seeing the same return of 34600%, ROI should still be higher than that of gold or real estate.

[davis196]

Maybe 10 years from now in 2034 someone will be doing this same calculation, that 10 years ago in 2024 if we bought Bitcoin we would have made 34600% profit. At that time maybe the price of Bitcoin will rise at 8 digits! Maybe I won't be around then but Bitcoin will be fine. Smiley

There's no way the Bitcoin price could hit 8 digits, because the BTC market cap would be bigger than the global GDP.
All those "What if you bought BTC back in 2010?" forum posts are pointless. Nobody believed back in 2010 or 2014, that the Bitcoin price in 2024 would be 50K USD. You could make the same "what if you bought" posts about every big altcoin as well. What if you bought ethereum back in 2015, when the price of one ETH was around one dollar? Such questions doesn't make any sense anymore.
It's like asking, "what if you picked the same sequence of numbers, that won the lottery?"
The prices of Gold, real estate and BTC are going up mostly because the fiat currencies are devaluating, not because Gold, BTC and real estate are becoming more valuable.

[Smack That Ace]

Stories comparing investing in bitcoin to investing in gold and real estate are discussed every day. That's because we've all seen how bitcoin prices skyrocketed in the past, but give us a chance to go back 10 years and we knew nothing about it. I bet you that you or I or everyone here will not dare to invest in bitcoin and we will choose gold or real estate.

Furthermore, as some others have said, what happened in the past doesn't mean it will happen again in the future. The future is unpredictable and we also won't know what will happen to bitcoin in 2034. Therefore, claiming that investing in bitcoin will bring better results than gold or real estate after 10 years is not convincing.

[Jawhead999]

It doesn't make sense to compare the profit between gold, real estate and Bitcoin.

Gold was invented since 4 Billion years ago.

Real estate is valuable because there are many people want to live.

While Bitcoin, it was invented since 2009, it's not that important compared to real estate where you need to have it in order to live, not every people have access to technology on that time because it was expensive.

History repeats, but you shouldn't forget about the risk.

[kotajikikox]

Let us see if someone would have invested
$1000 in Gold ten years ago,
or bought $1000 worth of real estate property.
Or if he invested $1000 to buy Bitcoin. How it would be then?

People will keep blaming bitcoin for not making them instant millionaire ,  and this is what will happen in the future because of their stupidity not trusting bitcoin and yeah some invested choosing Gold and Real estate .
but we in crypto will laugh at them when time comes that this is going to happen.

[Z390]

There is no more crazy gains in Bitcoin because many people are now in Bitcoin than before, this is why you should always get into something when nobody want to believe in it, when everyone is already talking about it then it's already too late, but still, I can't fade the fact that Bitcoin can still do incredible numbers in the future, there is still volatility and manipulation in this space so anything can happen in the future that can bring newer opportunity.

In the future, the volatility of Bitcoin will not be as insane as the past, there will be more confidence in Bitcoin than we are seeing now, it could turn into gold like investment or even stocks, but we are still far from that right now, in the future the real scarcity of Bitcoin will begin and with 21 million max supply I believe that Bitcoin will be the best investment to ever existed.

If I say that Bitcoin is overpriced at 50,000 what will others say in the future when it's trading at $500,000 or there are people still thinking that it's impossible? It must have been the same thought when Bitcoin hit $1000 in the past, $10,000 must have felt too unrealistic.

[Frankolala]

No one know how high bitcoin price will be in future, but the possibility of bitcoin price getting high with timeline is higher, because investors and institutions have now gain so much interest in bitcoin, compared to ten years back, that people hardly know bitcoin. However, we shouldn't use the past record to predict the future because it is not a guarantee.

Gold has been there for a very long time, and has be confirmed as a safe haven, but bitcoin is a baby just 14yrs and it has outperform every other assets, and it has shown that it is one of the best investment, infact it is the best investment currently. This circle is different and we can see bitcoin price higher than what we expected because of the approval of bitcoin ETF. Anyone that have his bitcoin investment, should hodli and see bitcoin as part of his life so that in future you will benefit from its compounding value. Do not put all your investment in bitcoin.

[shield132]

Bitcoin has been giving such profits for about 12 to 13 years, I don't think anything else in the world can give so much ROI in such a short period of time. But where is the problem with our trust in Bitcoin?

Now you may say yes 10 years ago there was an opportunity to invest in Bitcoin. I know you missed that opportunity even I missed it but everyone knows that Bitcoin price will reach 100k or 150k. Even JP Morgan, who is strongly opposed to Bitcoin, says that the price of Bitcoin will increase.
So those who missed the previous rally should not try to catch the current rally? Will we make the same mistake again and again?

Maybe 10 years from now in 2034 someone will be doing this same calculation, that 10 years ago in 2024 if we bought Bitcoin we would have made 34600% profit. At that time maybe the price of Bitcoin will rise at 8 digits! Maybe I won't be around then but Bitcoin will be fine.

Bitcoin was the greatest opportunity and investment, especially 10 years ago because it was the first complete cryptocurrency. Imagine we live in a society where money doesn't exist and then someone invents money but in a limited quantity. Then slowly people discover that there is a new thing called money and some people want to buy it early. Then, people understand that there is money and everyone wants to get it because how cool it is but in exchange of getting 1 money (1 btc), you have to do more job than you had to do in 2010 because everyone wants money and demand increases.
I know this is not a good explanation but bitcoin is a new money in this world, that's why this asset will increase in value but people will still always make mistakes of not buying it.

[mindrust]

There is a problem with this approach. Past performance doesn’t guarantee future returns.

Maybe gold will become the king of assets in the next 10 years and real estate won’t have any action. The possibility is small but not completely nonexistent.

A diversified portfolio is your friend. 15% gold, 30% btc, 5% alts, 10% stocks, 10%cash, 20% real estate, 10% bonds is a nice balanced portfolio. You can fiddle with the numbers of course, the point is that you shouldn’t go all in on one asset.

[0t3p0t]

Well the past doesn't define the future so taking the risk to invest long term especially 10 years from now we definitely have no idea if things will be the same as the past ten years but we all know that it is worth trying since we are talking about Bitcoin here. For me the chances of having much more profits in the next ten years if we are gonna invest right now is quiet positive due to technological innovation and of course massive adoption whereas compared to the past that for me is like a trial and error thing for most investors and enthusiasts the reason why they don't pay much attention to their hodlings that resulted into losing the keys and funds.

In the present days things are different because we already have learnt from the past, so right now, most of us are way more careful and hopeful that good things will happen again. But the only problem with todays Bitcoin investment is that whales tends to play with the market that is why we need to be aware of that so we can go with the flow.

[btc78]

Yes it is regretful that we were not able to acquire bitcoin back when it was still in its early times. Just thinking about how different my life would have been if my family had invested in Bitcoin back then. But 10 years ago is a completely different era. Moreover 2009 when Bitcoin was first launched.

First of all, technology at that time was not as advanced as it is now. Internet was not really as accessible as it is now at least in some countries especially third world ones. Those who knew about Bitcoin at that time in my country would have been people working in either finance or tech. Most citizens would not have known about Bitcoin. 10 years ago, some people did not even have the chance of buying Bitcoin. Well, anyway. Today is a new day. Internet is very much accessible by people in all ages and even social classes. You don't have to be super rich to buy Bitcoin now. So yes we all should invest before it gets too late again

[kro55]

A diversified portfolio is your friend. 15% gold, 30% btc, 5% alts, 10% stocks, 10%cash, 20% real estate, 10% bonds is a nice balanced portfolio. You can fiddle with the numbers of course, the point is that you shouldn’t go all in on one asset.

Capital allocation is only suitable for people with large or significant capital, it is not effective for people with small capital who want to increase capital. And I think bitcoin is the perfect answer for those willing to take risks in search of more significant returns.

In my opinion, people with little capital should only focus on 1 or 2 assets to achieve maximum profits instead of diversifying too much which will reduce their profits. I agree with OP, bitcoin should be the choice in this day and age where its returns are more significant than other investments. But we also need to realize that high profits come with high risks, everything is proportional to each other.

[bakasabo]

To see the clear picture and get helpful answers, I suggest to put on the other side a list of unsuccessful investments. OP has mentioned gold, bitcoin and property investments, showed how $1000 turned into hundred thousands. I havent googled much, but offhand I can name Twitter purchase. Suppose you have invested in Twitter. During two last years the value of your investment has decreased. Found list of unsuccessful investment. HP have bought Autonomy and face multimillion value loss of a company they have just purchased.

So OP, when asking why people make mistakes and did not invest on early stage, think about all the unsuccessful investments people made. Because I feel like ration of successful: unsuccessful early investments are greatly below 1.