Why did BTC drop by $75 in the past week

[zimmah]

I'm puzzled, I thought pretty much all the bears have already sold their coins, what drove the price down this time?

[1714922175]

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[1714922175]

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[ujka]

You don't follow 'press' board?
Two days ago, there was (again) a rumor that China is to 'ban' bitcoin (again). People panicked.

[BitcoinAwesomeMan]

Fear!

Perfect time to buy

[Bonio]

I'm a bit confused with whats going on.

It must be fairly early adopters who are selling which is driving the price down, why else wold people bail out and take a large loss if they got into bitcoin more recently.

Im keeping my fingers crossed and have been buying all the way down simply because I believe bitcoin has a future.

[TheButterZone]

Because morons.

[killinitsoftly]

Heavy hands are at work right now.  The price is being manipulated by big pockets, but is also being influenced by the press.  
This two-fold process has resulted in decreased BTC value, in my opinion.

[Bit_Happy]

Too many sellers not enough buyers.
Next question?   

[keithers]

Also the IRS ruling in regards to bitcoins isnt that favorable.

[robsonbyte]

BTC not will rise soon! Drop drop drop. BTC to the center of earth.

[Xell]

Here's a better question. Why did it rise 100$'s in the past few months? The answer to that, most people claim, is 'because China'.

Now there are 'rumours' that PBOC is going to try and close Mainland-based crypto exchanges by getting rid of their bank accounts. Rumours have circulated about this kind of action before, but officials later denied them. However, this time - no denial. It is also widely expected to be true, and is certainly believable.

'So what? Bitcoin is decentralised, that's the whole point! China can't just ban it!'
This might be true in places like Europe. But China is different, and there are a number of differences. Some are easier to quantify than others. I live in Hongkong, and work with a lot of Chinese (that is, mainland Chinese) people.
Some differences that are easy to talk about are in the exchanges and businesses based in China. The Chinese RMB is not fully convertible, you'll struggle to hedge against it and if you wanted to expose yourself to even a relatively small amount (in finance terms) you may find you simply cannot. Take a look at the usual derivatives, and see if you can expose yourself to more than a few million RMB. So having a local bank account, and being a true local company, is important in China financially, which is why the news that the powers-that-be in China closing/forbidding exchanges having bank accounts is much bigger news than it would be elsewhere. Linked to this is the long list of rules and regulations (many unwritten) associated with doing business in China. It's just not the same as it is elsewhere, you can't just get round rules so easily there. It is a hard place to do business, if the officials don't want you do business then it becomes very very hard.

Also, many of the differences are in the way people make decisions. China is much more immature than the west when it comes to trust (generally, but especially online transactions). Online shopping is rare for expensive items besides one or two large retailers. Unlike in Europe, there is much less recourse for a transaction going bad if you buy from a little known seller online. If there are no local exchanges, that will have a significant impact on how Chinese people view the currency and how willing they are to be involved with it. The internet maybe global but the Chinese internet is quite self-contained.

On the other hand, what kind of people in China want to keep assets in bitcoin? Speculators? Or people who want to hide assets? This goes back to the first line of my reply, why did it rise so much and if people are correct in claiming 'China' then who in China and why. Answer that and you will have a better understanding of why it has fallen as much as it has, why it hasn't fallen more and how much further it has to fall.

[boumalo]

Here's a better question. Why did it rise 100$'s in the past few months? The answer to that, most people claim, is 'because China'.

Now there are 'rumours' that PBOC is going to try and close Mainland-based crypto exchanges by getting rid of their bank accounts. Rumours have circulated about this kind of action before, but officials later denied them. However, this time - no denial. It is also widely expected to be true, and is certainly believable.

'So what? Bitcoin is decentralised, that's the whole point! China can't just ban it!'
This might be true in places like Europe. But China is different, and there are a number of differences. Some are easier to quantify than others. I live in Hongkong, and work with a lot of Chinese (that is, mainland Chinese) people.
Some differences that are easy to talk about are in the exchanges and businesses based in China. The Chinese RMB is not fully convertible, you'll struggle to hedge against it and if you wanted to expose yourself to even a relatively small amount (in finance terms) you may find you simply cannot. Take a look at the usual derivatives, and see if you can expose yourself to more than a few million RMB. So having a local bank account, and being a true local company, is important in China financially, which is why the news that the powers-that-be in China closing/forbidding exchanges having bank accounts is much bigger news than it would be elsewhere. Linked to this is the long list of rules and regulations (many unwritten) associated with doing business in China. It's just not the same as it is elsewhere, you can't just get round rules so easily there. It is a hard place to do business, if the officials don't want you do business then it becomes very very hard.

Also, many of the differences are in the way people make decisions. China is much more immature than the west when it comes to trust (generally, but especially online transactions). Online shopping is rare for expensive items besides one or two large retailers. Unlike in Europe, there is much less recourse for a transaction going bad if you buy from a little known seller online. If there are no local exchanges, that will have a significant impact on how Chinese people view the currency and how willing they are to be involved with it. The internet maybe global but the Chinese internet is quite self-contained.

On the other hand, what kind of people in China want to keep assets in bitcoin? Speculators? Or people who want to hide assets? This goes back to the first line of my reply, why did it rise so much and if people are correct in claiming 'China' then who in China and why. Answer that and you will have a better understanding of why it has fallen as much as it has, why it hasn't fallen more and how much further it has to fall.

It is a very interesting post, thank you for your insight on China

There is a lot of emotion in the market and I think BTC is oversold because 480USD is only twice the price of 11months when so many businesses are accepting Bitcoin and so many are starting to save a little bit in BTC compared to a year ago but the main reason it is oversold is that the US and Europe are monetizing their date which will create massive inflation, huge losses for people saving in fiat so Bitcoin will look that much more appealing to everyone, especially when the financial sector and the whole economy will suffer from the Central bankers actions

[waldox]

fud from china, usa and maybe excess mtgox loot being turned into fiat

[newnexo]

Too many sellers not enough buyers.
Next question?   

Good one!  But the question is: Why are there more sellers than buyers at the moment?

[boumalo]

fud from china, usa and maybe excess mtgox loot being turned into fiat

That and the price going down pushing the price further down bc traders play the trend and people panic sell or sell in hope to buy cheaper

[softron]

China rumors + panic selling

[arepo]

we broke below a very important price support recently ($530). if you look at the price history in the past 5 months, the only times we fell under this level were during brief flash panics that were immediately bought back up into the $600s range (immediate post-bubble recovery, and then mtgox panic sell). price action below this support for the length of time that we've seen has gotten everybody spooked about a real bear market ahead. also, most weak hands that have already sold are looking to buy lower. HODLers are simply HODLing, and bought the bitcoins they wanted at these "cheap" prices already during the consolidation. therefore there is little buying pressure left, so we're floating downward on low volume.

--arepo

[Jovan97]

Bitcoin going down? 

[boumalo]

we broke below a very important price support recently ($530). if you look at the price history in the past 5 months, the only times we fell under this level were during brief flash panics that were immediately bought back up into the $600s range (immediate post-bubble recovery, and then mtgox panic sell). price action below this support for the length of time that we've seen has gotten everybody spooked about a real bear market ahead. also, most weak hands that have already sold are looking to buy lower. HODLers are simply HODLing, and bought the bitcoins they wanted at these "cheap" prices already during the consolidation. therefore there is little buying pressure left, so we're floating downward on low volume.

--arepo

Nice analyse but the good fundamentals are still here so we can plan on spiking up again at some point, there are probably A LOT of cash sitting in the exchanges and some cash coming to the exchanges that will buy back when they think we are going up again
It may take a while before we are resuming the bull market tough

[Lethn]

Panicky traders who don't like a flat price, I was in that place at Christmas and made some stupid mistakes you get extremely impatient and start selling off and then everybody else takes advantage.

[zimmah]

You don't follow 'press' board?
Two days ago, there was (again) a rumor that China is to 'ban' bitcoin (again). People panicked.

China 'bans' bitcoin every other day, what's the big deal?

It may also by the way be partly due to the American policy to tax it as property now I think of it.

Too bad I don't really have any fiat money right now, or I'd have bought more bitcoin....