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JayJuanGee I think in other for someone to prevent making mistakes when he or she has reached overaccumulation stage the best thing to do is to withdraw only when the price of Bitcoin doubles, I learnt this from you and it's very effective, with this strategy it won't affect one's Bitcoin investment now if one is using this strategy in withdrawing his or her Bitcoin he or she don't need to depend on Bitcoin only he or she needs to be working since it may take a long time before a price doubles in Bitcoin so while waiting for the price to double he or she can be using the income he or she gets from there job to get there basic needs.
Don't worry about making mistakes, since we learn from our mistakes, yet at the same time, if we do make mistakes, we would like to mitigate such mistakes so that we are damaged ONLY minimally, if we do make mistakes.
Yet, to your main point, there are a variety of ways to deal with managing your BTC holdings after reaching overaccumulation status.
One of the things about reaching overaccumulation status is that it increases options, yet there are likely levels and even differing ways of measuring overaccumulation status, so in that regard, if we are barely at overaccumulated status, then we might not have as many options as someone who is many times higher than overaccumulation status.
Let's say for example, a guy who had made $50k per year had been investing into bitcoin for the past 9 years at $200 per week which would have been about 25% of his income at about $10k per year, so he may well could have had invested $90k or $100k into bitcoin over such time, and maybe he accumulated right around 16 BTC. He might be feeling pretty good about his BTC stash, since his goal was to be able to quit his job, but he wanted to make sure that his bitcoin would support at least an $80k per year income, and he cal see that right now
right around 15 BTC would perpetually be able to afford an income of $80k per year, so in that regard he has enough or more than enough BTC, and he even has 1 BTC extra to give him a little bit of a cushion if he were to want to start to withdraw $6,666k per month. So that would be a time based sustainable withdrawal.
The withdrawal of 10% of your bitcoin holdings every time the BTC price doubles would be a price based sustainable withdrawal, yet that requires the BTC price to double to be able to withdraw from it, even though you could divide it into smaller increments, such as selling 2.5% every time the BTC price went up 25%.
So there can be various options to employ sustainable withdrawal that might differ in terms of how they are employed, whether they are time based or price based and/or in terms of how they are employed.
The only time you can get into a problem is when you depend only on your Bitcoin investment even if you have accumulated Enough or you have reached overaccumulation stage you don't have to depend only your Bitcoin investment for your survival except you have thousands of Bitcoin
You don't need thousands of bitcoin. I think that my formula for withdrawing based on the 200-WMA value, the withdrawal of up to 10% per year based on the 200-WMA valuation of your holdings is able to work if you know how to employ and not to overdo it and maybe to cut back on the withdrawals if the BTC Spot price goes to less than 25% above the 200-WMA and it seems to me that right now, if you have at least 15 bitcoin, you could sustainably withdraw $80k per year and even increase your dollar value by 7% per year, and it should be sustainable at that level.. yet of course, you have to monitor that you are not overly withdrawing and/or that the BTC price dynamics have not changed so much as to cause needs to reconsider the withdrawal formula.
Part of the trick is to make sure that the BTC value is not getting depleted, meaning that you are not withdrawing past your limit, and surely if you have a bit of an extra cushion, such as the guy who has 16 BTC rather than 15 BTC, then it is quite likely that the formula will work out better, and you will not mistakenly overdraft too much too soon from your holdings and/or overly deplete it in such a way that it is no longer able to grow sufficiently to support your targeted income, which is $80k per year (with a 7% per year increase) in my example.
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Once a person reaches overaccumulation status then he might choose to pause any new buying, and he might have a period where he is neither buying or selling, and perhaps once he starts to withdraw, then if the dollar value of his bitcoin holdings is growing faster than his withdrawal rate then he does not need to keep buying..
Do we need to give an example?
It is optional to keep buying once a guy reaches overaccumulation status, and sure he might make mistakes and come to conclude that he is in overaccumulation status and he is not. He also might not really know what overaccumulation status is, so if he does not know, then he is also more likely to make mistakes.
This is really a good phase that will happen to investor since it will lessen up the pressure of thinking about they should buy more Bitcoin since for reaching that level is like they have freedom to choose whether they continue buy now or just relax then do this later since they already hit their targets.
But I would rather choose to buy more since for many good things happened in terms of adoption and recognition. My confidence level goes high that I can use Bitcoin for retirement, that's why I continue accumulating then let see if I could able to hit that goal without getting bothered by future events, but most likely will not since I know Bitcoin is good asset to hold.
There can be a certain lack of confidence that causes a guy to want to make sure to have an extra cash cushion (or extra BTC cushion) beyond his target level so that he can make sure that he is withdrawing from within the overaccumulation status and not causing himself to go below overaccumulation status. Guys are responsible for their own situations and to make sure that have adequately reached overaccumulation status and that they don't overly withdraw from their bitcoin, while knocking themselves out of overaccumulation status.
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I get what you mean, Overaccumulation isn’t some fixed number, it’s more like a personal decision depending on the person's needs and comfort level. For example, let’s say someone has built up enough bitcoin over 8–10 years, and their holdings are growing at around 8–10% or more a year. If they’re only withdrawing about 3% to 5% a year for expenses, then technically their bitcoin stash is still growing even while they are already living off of it, so they don’t really need to keep buying although they can continue if they want to. The tricky part, like you said, is that people sometimes misjudge where they are, some stop too early thinking they’ve already made it and later regret it, while others never feel like they’ve reached enough and just keep stacking/accumulating forever.
Honestly, the bigger mistakes usually happen earlier on like selling too soon or not accumulating enough during those early cycles like the first and second one. At the end of the day, it comes down to experience and discipline. The longer someone has been accumulating bitcoin, the easier it gets for them to judge when they have crossed into that overaccumulation territory and shift their mindset from pure accumulation to careful management.
I think that you are getting the ideas pretty well, and surely when you are applying them to your own situation, as your bitcoin grows, then they will start to make more sense in terms of how to manage your holdings, since you will likely pass through phases of more aggressive bitcoin accumulation and then maybe less intense accumulation and then maybe only strategic accumulation, and so if you are paying attention to your stack size, then yeah, you might come across regrets in regards to how whimpily you had invested in your earlier years, when you could have had afforded to invest more aggressively, yet surely these are judgement calls that each guy has to make in terms of how aggressive he believe that he is able to be without overdoing it. So, sometimes we punish ourselves afterwards for not being aggressive enough, yet it is not really a big mistake, since it is better to have had continued to invest through the years rather than not, so the no coiners will be in a worse situation, and really there will be a lot of folks in a worse situation who had not been accumulating bitcoin.
Surely part of the reason that i frequently repeat that guys should try to stack bitcoin as aggressively as they can without over doing it is because guys still have to determine those boundaries, and if they fuck it up by either over doing it or underdoing it, then they can ONLY blame themselves, even though they cannot turn back the clock, but just attempt to accumulate BTC the best that they are able to accomplish under their own circumstances and within their discretionary income, and surely some guys may well be quite limited in terms of how much discretionary income that that they are able to generate to be able to invest more than 10% of their income into bitcoin... .. so they do the best that they can and realize that it takes time to build up a bitcoin investment, and even though some guys might be able to accomplish their building up in 4-6 years, there are plenty of guys who will take more than 2 cycles, and perhaps even 3-4 cycles before they really get to a point where they might start to feel that they are getting to a point where they can actually see where their overaccumulation amount would be.
