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It is very crazy how clear everything looks in hindsight , but in the moment , we are trying to make the most of what you have . i think a lot of us have been there spending early gains thinking we are making the right move , only to look back , it is a learning curve. Once you start seeing Bitcoin as a long term wealth and not just fast money.
Yeah, you’re right time in the space matters, and I have still got a lot to learn. A year and a half is not much in Bitcoin terms, but i have been trying to soak up as much as I can and approach things with a long-term mindset. I hear you on over accumulation too it’s a tricky line to walk between stacking hard and knowing when you have done enough.
That story you shared is a heavy reminder that it’s not just about buying early it’s about how you manage what you have got. Hacks, yield chasing, bad decisions it really puts risk management into perspective. Definitely gives me more to think about.
You are going to be tempted to spend from your bitcoin or to slow down in accumulating bitcoin merely because you might not have any other investments that had performed as well as bitcoin, and you can also identify a variety of ways that bitcoin your bitcoin stash can bring you a lot more comfort in the present, and sure maybe it would be nice to drive a car rather than a motorcycle and yeah, maybe you would rather have a 2025 or 2026 model rather than a 2019 model, and surely there can be temptations to treat yourself too soon... and I am not sure how guys can get themselves out of such a mindset, except maybe if they can think about ways to gamify their bitcoin buys and even if they focus on figuring out how to make more money so that they can buy more bitcoin, so sometimes they can figure out ways to place some emphasis on every month making sure that they had more bitcoin (satoshis) than they had the month before, and yeah, maybe it is better to be able to stack 100k satoshis in a month versus a couple thousand in order to make it meaningful.
I used to create a game out of my weekly buys. I usually tended to create a budget for 6 months, and then divide that budget into 26 parts (1 part for each week), so each week I had a budget to buy bitcoin, and so sometimes I would try to have fun with that weekly buy amount and try to time the dip within the week, but at the same time, I made sure that I bought the whole amount by the end of the week, even if the price did not dip. Another thing that I would do is to sometimes go beyond my weekly amount, so I would try to figure out if I could get more income for the week to add to my weekly allowance, and it was not always easy, so if I ended up having an additional $100 come in, then i would divide that into 2 parts. $50 would go into bitcoin and the other $50 would go into my cash reserves (anticipating that the amount might be needed for expenses), since sometimes even having an extra $100 come in, I would just assume that there might have had been some costs that were involved in getting that extra $100 come in... and at some point after my next paycheck came in and my various balances were looked at, then sometimes I could also add whatever extra funds into my bitcoin buys.. so even though i had a weekly bitcoin buying budget, I would also have some other funds that might come available from time to time, and I tried to make a bit of a game out of the whole process of both building up my BTC and also making sure that I was not spending them - except spend and replace (including gifts to others (like $5 or $10) that would be treated like a spend and replace). It kept me in the process of constantly reminding myself to buy bitcoin.
Additionally, having the basic knowledge is one thing and acting in it is another thing, so starting once you have the basic needs is the ideal thing to do once your discretionary income is available, because now is the best time to invest in Bitcoin not tomorrow or next tomorrow.
Basic knowledge will help investors knowing that a good strategy is Dollar Cost Averaging for their investment accumulation over a long time. They know that with long term investment, this DCA strategy will help them accumulating bitcoin very effortlessly - without need of timing the market, finding any market bottom, time of bear market ending, time of bull market start and ending.
They can also apply DCA for their withdrawals/ profit taking too.
https://costavg.com/https://bitcoindata.science/withdrawal-strategyThis second website that you list is a sustainable withdrawal tool designed by me and bitmover, and my intention is that such tool is used after reaching overaccumulation status rather than as a means to take short term profits or to trade... Getting through your BTC accumulation stage can take years and years, perhaps a cycle or two before your bitcoin holdings might get to a large enough size that it might become eligible for sustainable withdrawal.
I don't know if I will actually be successful one day if I invest in Bitcoin. I continued to invest in Bitcoin for many years but did not get any good results then everything was in vain. If we can invest correctly then we can make a profit then we should invest in Bitcoin and hold Bitcoin.
Bitcoin investment it not guaranteed to be successful, so you should pick an investment amount that is comfortable for you, whether that is $100 per week, $10 per week or some other amount that feels comfortable to you.
Hopefully, while you are investing into bitcoin you will also attempt to learn about it, so that you might not be so nervous about your choice to regularly invest into it. Your learning about bitcoin might cause you to increase your weekly investment amount. Perhaps? In the end, you are the person who has to figure out your balance of your bitcoin investment and other aspects of your personal situation (
your 9 individual factors). .including there is a lot of value in strengthening your cashflow management systems and practices. especially if you choose to invest aggressively into bitcoin.
I don't know if I will actually be successful one day if I invest in Bitcoin. I continued to invest in Bitcoin for many years but did not get any good results then everything was in vain. If we can invest correctly then we can make a profit then we should invest in Bitcoin and hold Bitcoin.
You joined this forum at the beginning of the year, so the question is, when did you start investing in Bitcoin? If you've just recently invested in Bitcoin, you certainly won't see significant returns if you only buy Bitcoin periodically in small amounts. However, if you've been buying large amounts since the beginning of this year, you've certainly seen substantial returns in your portfolio, even if you haven't held it for long. However, if you've been investing in Bitcoin for years, I don't think anything has been in vain, as you've certainly seen much greater returns this year, as Bitcoin has achieved several all-time highs this year.
Now, when you say that, I have another question: how long have you been investing in Bitcoin? If you say it's been years, then your journey isn't just one year, but more than two or three years. So, you need to explain this so you don't hesitate to continue investing in Bitcoin. Many Bitcoin investors have been successful by continually buying and holding onto it, without thinking about selling at a certain price, even though Bitcoin has repeatedly set new all-time highs in the market.
In order to make it through a whole bitcoin cycle there are going to be ups and downs, and there may also be extended periods in which the bitcoin are not in profits. It seems to me that guys have to figure out how to both hold through those periods but also to figure out how to continue buying within their budget and within their personal circumstances, such as their psychology and their views of bitcoin as compared with other places to put their money. Hopefully they are not so retarded as to get diverted into shitcoins, but sure some folks are so lost that they don't know the difference between bitcoin and shitcoins and at some point they might need to figure that out, especially if they had not already been focusing on bitcoin first...and of course, some folks are easily distracted into scams, and that is on them if they cannot figure out the value of focusing on bitcoin first.
Even though the investor has time, if his goal is achieved, then he has more time left. He can use that time for work. You have to wait for the long term. After buying Bitcoin, it is better not to sell it if the price increases a little. It is better not to sell Bitcoin thinking about your own profit. We should think about how to hold Bitcoin in the long term. How to invest and take Bitcoin forward. We should not sell it immediately, thinking that the price will fluctuate in the market.
You should be thinking about buying for 4-10 years or longer, unless you can front load your investment, so I am not sure what the fuck purpose you have constantly thinking about selling.. If you are so worried about selling or not selling, you are likely to get scared out of your investment, so you likely need to adjust your mindset to actual long term thinking and lose your focus on whether or not your holdings are profitable and think about accumulating for 4-10 years or more and at the same time learning about bitcoin so that you know how to talk about it and think about it.. .. also make sure that you learn about your cashflow management systems, so that you don't fuck up your building and maintaining various back up funds and otherways of making sure that you are investing into bitcoin within your discretionary money rather than money that you need to cover current or future expenses.
It is better not to sell Bitcoin thinking about your own profit. We should think about how to hold Bitcoin in the long term. How to invest and take Bitcoin forward. We should not sell it immediately, thinking that the price will fluctuate in the market.
Why must you sell when you know you are not going to earn big income that will make you happy, every holder know the exactly price bitcoin will hit before they will visit the market to know what to do either to sell or continue holding for higher price, because they know the price they bought their bitcoin from that will make them to decide positive, those that sell their bitcoin immediately they bought from the market will not earn huge income compared to those that bought and hold
more than five years before trading in the market, for those that want to buy bitcoin to add to the ones they are holding, I think the price has decrease for them to buy and continue holding to see another all time high (ATH) soon.
You think that you are going to be ready to start selling bitcoin 5 years from your beginning date Oshio-man? Hopefully you can figure out how to express this better? Unless you happen to be old or have some age consideration, it likely is not wise to be selling between 4-10 years.. ... but yeah, each person has to figure out these kinds of matters and whether he is a trader or an investor and then how is he going to treat his bitcoin once it starts to become a large portion of his net worth.. How is he going to manage it? Sell it all? You going to spend 5 years accumulating bitcoin and then just sell it all? Does that make sense?
Even though the investor has time, if his goal is achieved, then he has more time left. He can use that time for work. You have to wait for the long term. After buying Bitcoin, it is better not to sell it if the price increases a little. It is better not to sell Bitcoin thinking about your own profit. We should think about how to hold Bitcoin in the long term. How to invest and take Bitcoin forward. We should not sell it immediately, thinking that the price will fluctuate in the market.
There is a difference between achieving your bitcoin accumulation goals or target as it suits us and hodling bitcoin for a long-term, this are two different things, when we achieved our goals we should look beyond that however, staying while holding isn't thebl right way to go about bitcoin investment, at the hodling period, we should get more busy with legit things that give us more income so that we won't think about our portfolio for any reason, although before this time we might have build enough emergency but we could help ourselves by hustling very tight to make sure that we get tempted along the lane, just as we know 2 cycle hodlers should not see themselves as long-term because it just 8, atleast we should be talking about 4 or more cycles by then we may come up with the next plan.
You bring up some decently good points.
As we are accumulating bitcoin, we are likely going to start to feel richer and richer and richer, as we are exercising better and better cashflow management practices and also hopefully building and guarding our bitcoin since we are likely going to be having to make sure that we are not messing up our holdings.
Even if we might start to modify our bitcoin accumulation strategies and our cashflow management practices, we are likely making these modifications based on both ongoing learning, and also based on changes in the facts, which facts hopefully relate to our putting ourselves into a better and better financial place, and when are finances are build our good psychology will likely follow from that.
I really do not think there is anything that sounds like a trader from the statement,
he is basically talking about not selling your bitcoin in a short period of time, instead to hold until an investor completes a full circle, honestly speaking we’re investing in bitcoin because we all think we would make some profit after holding for a very long time, we all have our desired goals before thinking of investing in bitcoin and all that, but we should still know that profit isn’t a guarantee, which is why we could as well be accumulating and holding, sometimes we would find out that after buying and accumulating for one full circle we still do not have enough profit like we would want to, because it depends on the number of discretionary income that we have available and what we have also be accumulating in that time duration will guarantee our level of making profit, for example we choose to accumulate 5-10$ on a weekly basis we might end up not accumulating enough profit that is why it’s ideal we can also try to increase our level of buying and accumulating to be able to have a reasonable amount of profit in a long term basis and holding and that can only happen when we try on working on our finances.
You think that a full cycle is enough Jostern. For sure, I frequently suggest a minimum of a full cycle in bitcoin in order for what we are doing to be considered to be an investment rather than a trade, but still? What conditions do you believe need to exist in order to sell bitcoin within a 4-10 year timeline?
I understood your point about potentially needing to continue to invest, even after 4 years, so in that regard, we might need to figure out how aggressive we had been able to be in the first cycle in order to determine if we might either be able to transition away from ongoing accumulating of bitcoin or if we might even need to increase our level of aggressiveness, perhaps based on our own improvements in our income with the passage of time, which sometimes happen to younger people who get better jobs, promotions and otherwise improve their incomes through the years... Some times older folks or maybe folks in bad circumstances might have troubles increasing their incomes, even if they know that they have something valuable (namely bitcoin) that they can invest into.
The best time for buying is at low price and I think if you sell your coins with profit then you should not regret after Fluctuations in coin price because you have already taken your profit so ready to make another step instead of regret about past.
If you are in doubt about other coin then just buy bitcoin now and don't sell until you achieved your target. This time is not suitable for selling but if someone is in huge profit and he cannot hold longer then selling should be preferred. Understand the market and accept your profit but I think if someone is selling their bitcoin without waiting more so he will miss the opportunity of having huge profit in Bull season.
I think it is right that if you buy at a low price and later sell when the price increases, then the profit will remain. There are many who do not want to buy when the price decreases but if we pay attention, we will see that when the price of Bitcoin decreases, it increases again, in which case you can invest in Bitcoin and in the long run there will be a huge profit opportunity. The right time for you to sell is when you get the price you want. If you get the price twice as much as you expected now, then sell.
You are probably going to have fun staying poor with your trading approach to bitcoin, HistoLock. Of course, you can do whatever you like, and hopefully not too many members follow your suggestions, especially if they see the value in investing in bitcoin for the long term, 4-10 years or longer.
It takes a long time to build up a bitcoin stash, but you are so worried about getting short-term dollar profits that you likely are not going to end up building a decently-sized bitcoin investment, even if you spend many years fucking around skimming off profits and then end up selling too much too soon because bitcoin price dynamics do not allow you to buy back cheaper than you sold.
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Such thinking of an investor in a new situation leads them to the wrong direction instead of moving in the right direction. There are many investors who start investing with the wrong idea that they will buy Bitcoin, wait for a few days and within these few days they will get a good amount of profit from Bitcoin.
After investing, there is actually no need to be in such a hurry to earn profit from the investment. Here, one has to be patient, have enough faith in the market and try to increase one's investment gradually. When an investor invests in Bitcoin, he has to forget that he has an investment. If financial problems arise, then he has to solve that financial problem in another way.
If an investor can hold his investment for two to three years after investing and during this period, if that investor can increase his investment a little through the DCA investment method, then he will have the possibility of getting a good amount of return from this investment at the end of the specified period.You think that 2-3 years is enough time to be in bitcoin and call yourself an investor? You seem to be trading rather than investing, even though you are criticizing others for having an even shorter timeline for their investment/trade.
You likely don't believe in the idea of 4-10 years or longer, yet you still want to call yourself an investor even though it seems to me that you are trading. What are you going to do when you sell in 2-3 years? Plan to buy back cheaper or just spend the profits?
There is something wrong with your description that withdrawing bitcoin at a 6% per year rate would completely deplete the bitcoin in 16 years.
My underlying presumption is that any time that we are attempting to withdraw bitcoin in a sustainable way, then the withdrawal rate is sustainable in perpetuity, meaning that you can continue to withdraw at that same rate forever and ever and ever.
Sure, the size of your bitcoin stash will continue to go down, once you start to withdraw from it, yet its dollar value should be going up at a faster and larger rate than your withdrawals from it.
For example, I assert that right now, a person who wants to have an income of
$80k per year perpetually into the future and even with a 7% increase in the fiat withdrawal rate, can have 15.547 BTC and start immediately to withdraw at $6,667 per month. Of course, if a guy is worried about having enough of a value cushion and or making any mistakes, then he could have a little extra BTC, so maybe to get started the guy has an extra 0.6817794 BTC ($80,000/$117,340), so that he withdraws the first year in advance and still has 15.547 BTC, so then when next year comes, he will see that he still has enough to withdraw an additional $85.6k (which is $80k X 1.07 to account for a 7% increase in the cost of living or a 7% decrease in the value of the dollar).
Thanks for doing some explaining that brightened my knowledge. My calculations was based on mere expectations an ideal one. If the holders stops investing in bitcoin that is, if he doesn't add to his portfolio anymore, and assuming his withdrawal are on fixed bitcoin 6% with a reference value from the beginning of his withdrawal. Maybe that's where I got it all wrong, even without the 200WMA if the 6% withdrawal was to be continued it's value should be measured in USD and not in bitcoin and also at every new amount left in the portfolio the 6% conservative should be calculated from there. Well but thanks to you for giving me a clearer insight, now I get the whole picture of this sustainable withdrawal method rather than mistaking it for a depletion method to exhaust all your bitcoin in a limited amount of years.
Ultimately you likely need to work through the numbers, and if you think that 6% is going to overly deplete your bitcoin and dip into the principle, then you might want to reduce the withdrawal rate until you believe that it reaches a point that the bitcoin is increasing in value (in terms of dollars) faster and higher than the amount that you are withdrawing. Surely some guys are comfortable to reduce their withdrawal rate or to stack more bitcoin so that they are at a higher accumulation level.
The idea of sustainable withdrawal is not new to bitcoin, and in traditional investments, there is typically the idea of withdrawing 4% per year, yet at the same time, the assets should on average be returning more than 4% per year in order to justify that withdrawal rate. There of course are going to be ups and downs along the way, and surely in traditional investments guys sometimes with overly deplete their assets even when sticking with a 4% per year withdrawal rate, especially if they are not invested in assets that return at least 4% per year.
Historically bitcoin has been returning way north of more than 20% per year, and I personally had come out with formulas at first to follow the 4% withdrawal rate, and then I kept moving it up, and so I am quite comfortable that 10% per year is infinitely sustainable, yet of course, the future is not guaranteed, so part of my own rationale to use the 200-WMA to measure value is in order to attempt to be conservative with valuations.. and whether you end up using the 200-WMA or you figure out some way to measure the value of your bitcoin based on spot value, in the end, you should attempt to be comfortable that you are able to perpetually withdraw at the rate that you choose... especially if you are a young person at the time that you start your bitcoin withdrawals.
On the other hand, there are folks who purposefully want to deplete the principle of their investment, and there is nothing wrong with that if you have some reason that you want to deplete your bitcoin principle based on age or health considerations or perhaps you no longer believe in bitcoin, then you are free to make your choices in regards to depleting your bitcoin principle.... I personally think that guys are likely more empowered to withdraw within their limits and not to ever fall out of overaccumulation status, except maybe age and/or health considerations.. but surely others are not necessarily going to agree with my perspective, which is fine...especially since there are likely plenty of people who do not even understand the idea of getting to a status of overaccumulation, so all that they know is to spend their investment in a way to deplete its principle, and then they are left without any bitcoin, and they can do whatever they like, if they think that there is value in becoming a low coiner or a no coiner while they are still living.
At the same time, there are plenty of folks (used-to-be coiners) who already regret selling too many of their bitcoin too soon... so there are a lot of folks who are likely going to continue to make those kinds of mistakes that cause them to become a low coiner or a no coiner way too soon in their lives.
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Reading this post, one thing is clear again: time and patience are the real killers. Many have experienced the 2013-2015 period, but very few can explain it so openly and thoroughly. The inability to buy at a lower price, and the self-doubt when I did buy, these feelings are very real and relatable.
The way you took a balanced approach, even amid the situation, such as dividing the excess income into buying some bitcoin, and keeping some for expenses, seemed much more practical. Because sometimes the ‘all in or all out’ mentality destroys both our real life and our peace of mind.
This long-term thinking about BTC shows that even small contributions of $50 can make a big difference at one time. This realization is a great insight. Looking back from 2025, $85 or $106 might seem “
cheap”, just as $550 or $900 once seemed too much.
The last line is excellent. We can only work with what is in front of us. Market fluctuations, or missing opportunities, are part of life. But what we have in our hands is consistency, discipline, and a sense of reality. Excellent and instructive sharing, thank you for presenting such an experience so perfectly.
I doubt any post about past happenings is going to be perfect, and surely many of us go through dilemmas in the process of accumulating bitcoin, and even wondering about if we are making the right choices in regards to where we put our time, energies and value. There surely are no guarantees that even if we do everything perfectly in the present that we are going to be rewarded in the future. Therefore we need to figure out our own ongoing investment amount in terms of what is reasonable for ourselves.
I have a friend who in around mid-2021, I suggested to invest $100 per week into bitcoin and to do so for 4-10 years or longer. That friend decided to invest only $50 (even though this friend surely had the resources to invest at least that amount if not more), and after a year or so the friend gave up and made several mistakes that could have had been avoided or lessened if he had remained focused on ongoingly buying and even studying into bitcoin in order to reinforce knowledge about bitcoin.
Merely sticking with
$100 per week, right now that person could have had invested around $21k into bitcoin and accumulated close to 0.6 BTC, which woud have had been a very good place to be.
I agree with you that age is not a limitation, but Is more advisable to get started with your bitcoin investment at your youthful age let's say within the range of ( 20 to 25 years ) so that by the time you get to the age of 60 years then you must have reach your investment goal or the status of overaccumulation.
I buy the idea of starting your accumulation from the age of 20 or 25 years to 60years, but I will also like to remind you that accumulating Bitcoin doesn't mean one must stay so long to be able to reach an overacumulation level. What matters in Bitcoin investment is the amount of Bitcoin you can be able to invest in a period of time. You might start investing in Bitcoin from the age of 25 and end at 35 or 40 depending on the level of Bitcoin you have acculated both being aggressive and whimpy. The only thing that make some guys to stay too long in Bitcoin investment is because they make it a pattern without making an aggressive investment when they have enough discretion.
The style of investing is likely to be different for an older investor versus a younger investor, and surely if the older person is considering bitcoin as an investment rather than a trade, then his timeline should be at least 4 years, and surely older people have more potential of something going wrong with their health than a younger person, even though young people can end up having health issues too.
In any event people invest based on their own circumstances, and a 60 year old may or may not still be working, and surely a 60 year old does not have as much time for compounding to take place, yet those still would not be reasons not to invest in bitcoin whether he is investing from his salary or if he might be reallocating from other investments that he may have made through the years.
A 60 year old investor who had been earning $30k per year might have had invested for 20-30 years or more and may have an investment portfolio that is already several hundred thousand dollars in value, and he might choose to invest 5% to 25% into bitcoin or some other amount that he believes is appropriate for his situation. Maybe he owns real estate and other assets, and he might even have older parents who died and left him money and/or property and/or business assets. I would not write off a person because of age, even though there might be more and more limitations especially the older we get, including people in their 80s and older might already be having a lot of health issues, but if they have a lot of assets, it still might be practical for them to allocate some of their value into bitcoin, especially if they consider themselves as having an investment timeline that is 4 years or more... and of course, the older a person is the more difficult it might become to establish a 4-year or longer investment timeline.
