Buy Buy Buy or Sell Sell Sell?

[samadam007]

[edited out]

One thing I’ve understood is when you practice something for a long time it becomes a habit and a disciplined investor will most likely find it difficult to stop buying even when he has reached over accumulation.
Then again another thing is over accumulation is relative, it all depends on the individual’s goal and financial performance. While the one with 12BTC might be struggling with his discipline to keep buying or not the other with 1.2BTC might be thinking he’s okay with his stack.
We can’t say for sure what level is over accumulation for people, they have to determine that for themselves.

Yeah.. hahahahaha

Some guys will come to dumb conclusions and they will either stop accumulating bitcoin way too soon and/or they will sell too many bitcoin too soon, and then end up having fun staying poor...since they might have had let 10 years pass without realizing that their bitcoin accumulation (if any?) had ended up being way too whimpy within the context of their own finances, psychology and/or goals.

There can be objectively better or worse choices that guys can make, and sometimes guys don't really recognize their own situations until they had already screwed up, so they get 10 years down the road, and they realize that they fucked up.. they either stopped accumulating bitcoin way too soon, or they sold way too many too soon, and so after 10 years, they are still in a position where they are feeling like they are just getting started when they should instead be much further down the road towards making progress, and frequently they had been failing/refusing to act, and in the context of bitcoin the action tends to be ongoing, persistent, consistent, regular and perhaps even aggressive buying of bitcoin until the numbers start to make sense that such letting off of the ongoing buying of bitcoin might start to make sense.

There’s a lot of truth in what you’ve said and I do agree with you here, inasmuch as I do feel like it kinda leans heavily on the idea that there’s kinda like a particular right path everyone failed to follow. The truth is that, a lot of folks who ended up behind after 10 years didn’t do so solely because they were lazy or even clueless. Some of these guys ended up there because the strategy/plan they chose to follow never really aligned with their actual life. Income changes, priorities shifts, fear or confidence suddenly shows up during the bull runs. Those ain’t just mistakes, as long as we are humans, they’ll most likely happen eventually, especially in our interactions with an asset that’s as volatile as Bitcoin.

On the consistency part, I completely agree with you 100%. I’ve come to realize that a lot of those who ended up regret things later on were either those who weren’t consistent, those who went too fast and ended up burning out too quickly, or those who couldn’t keep up with the market anymore and decided to stop accumulating just because things became uncertain at some point. It has been proven that the market tends to reward consistency and determination more than emotional decision making. But the phrase “aggressive buying until it makes sense to stop” can turn out to be a dangerous advice to someone, especially if they haven’t really defined what “makes sense” actually means for them. They can easily misinterpret this statement to suit their own personal preferences without really understanding what you really mean. So if they don’t really have the clarity about what makes sense means, they’ll most likely keep moving the goalpost.

Another problem investors often encounter is selling too quickly, but the truth is that, this decision is mostly driven by uncertainty than it is poor judgment. Imagine a situation where someone never really built that conviction or have that plan for what they’re really accumulating bitcoin for, sure these are not required for someone who wants to start accumulating bitcoin, which is in the early stages of the accumulation, but it’s compulsory for every investor to build that conviction and have that goal along the line, else they’ll most likely cash out the moment the feel they’re in profit or begin to feel pressured or uncertain at some point, which makes them more of a gambler than an actual investor. We can’t say this decision was due to weakness, but some missing piece of the puzzle. So the real problem goes beyond just the decision to cash out early, but not really knowing the reason why you were actually HODLing.

So in my opinion, the real mistake isn’t just about selling too much or quitting quickly, it’s actually engaging without a structure or a real target, because when folks have clear targets and goals, risk tolerance, and how Bitcoin accumulation fits into their overall financial life, then even if they end up making some stupid moves or make some silly decisions, it’ll most likely not set them back completely the way you described. But an investor is merely reacting and making decisions based on price and narratives, then they’ll find out that even after 10 years, they’ll almost just at a spot or maybe moving in circles.

I really like how you explained this. Life isn’t perfect and many people fall behind not just because they are lazy, but because their plan stopped matching their real life situation. I still believe consistency is the biggest edge in Bitcoin. But like you said, just telling people “buy aggressively until it makes sense to stop” can be dangerous if they don’t have a clear personal plan.

My main point is this: Have a personal rule and structure that fits your life and make sure you follow it. If you don’t have a strong reason why you’re holding Bitcoin, it’s easy to panic and sell early. At the end of the day, Bitcoin rewards people who treat it as a long term part of their life, not just a quick gamble. Mistakes will happen, but a clear plan makes sure those mistakes don’t destroy your progress.

[HustleZ]

Who would love trading? Yes, there could be some of us who do that, maybe as a job or side hustle. But you need to have a lot of time in your side and be in constant with your laptop or pc. And then it's like a game or gambling itself, because you are looking at what could be the future price as we all know, no one has the crystal ball to see what the future holds. So for the majority, it's very hard and complicated. As compare to just be a long term holder, just accumulate let's say in the first 4 year as a Bitcoin enthusiast, and then see how it goes. Of course it's not that easy too as there could be temptations along the way specially when you see your X amount investment has been profiting Y amount. However, if you really look for the bigger picture and thinking about building generational wealth, I would suggest just to continue to accumulate as much as we can. We just hit 20 million Bitcoin being mined already. So everyone is going to be fighting for the remaining. So it will be scarce and with that, demands goes up. Others have a target to own at least 1 BTC in their life time. To be part of that group. So it's really better to continue or period of buying before we start thinking of selling if we have at least enough in our Bitcoin journey of 1 BTC in our wallet.

You're correct, trading is a "full time" job and is a really complex one than it just being a way to earn loads of money without even trying, its correct that is a full time and people oftenly mistake it as a hobby and the "crystal ball" usually leads to a burnout. The only safe and genuine way is BTC investing and that too DCA not just timing dips, DCA really stacks over time and you can even own a "whole Bitcoin" and the only thing that requires it is discipline.

[Hardyrobust]

Who would love trading? Yes, there could be some of us who do that, maybe as a job or side hustle. But you need to have a lot of time in your side and be in constant with your laptop or pc. And then it's like a game or gambling itself, because you are looking at what could be the future price as we all know, no one has the crystal ball to see what the future holds. So for the majority, it's very hard and complicated. As compare to just be a long term holder, just accumulate let's say in the first 4 year as a Bitcoin enthusiast, and then see how it goes. Of course it's not that easy too as there could be temptations along the way specially when you see your X amount investment has been profiting Y amount. However, if you really look for the bigger picture and thinking about building generational wealth, I would suggest just to continue to accumulate as much as we can. We just hit 20 million Bitcoin being mined already. So everyone is going to be fighting for the remaining. So it will be scarce and with that, demands goes up. Others have a target to own at least 1 BTC in their life time. To be part of that group. So it's really better to continue or period of buying before we start thinking of selling if we have at least enough in our Bitcoin journey of 1 BTC in our wallet.

You're correct, trading is a "full time" job and is a really complex one than it just being a way to earn loads of money without even trying, its correct that is a full time and people oftenly mistake it as a hobby and the "crystal ball" usually leads to a burnout. The only safe and genuine way is BTC investing and that too DCA not just timing dips, DCA really stacks over time and you can even own a "whole Bitcoin" and the only thing that requires it is discipline.

Seeing trading as a full time job is likely the same thing as seeing gambling as a full time job which to me is very wrong unless your full time just doesn't conote trading as a source of income. Trading is very risky and it will be wrong for anyone to see it or consider it as a full time or a job. The risk of a trader losing all his or her money is very high so such a thing shouldn't be considered as a full time job.

[IjawMan]

I really like how you explained this. Life isn’t perfect and many people fall behind not just because they are lazy, but because their plan stopped matching their real life situation. I still believe consistency is the biggest edge in Bitcoin. But like you said, just telling people “buy aggressively until it makes sense to stop” can be dangerous if they don’t have a clear personal plan.

My main point is this: Have a personal rule and structure that fits your life and make sure you follow it. If you don’t have a strong reason why you’re holding Bitcoin, it’s easy to panic and sell early. At the end of the day, Bitcoin rewards people who treat it as a long term part of their life, not just a quick gamble. Mistakes will happen, but a clear plan makes sure those mistakes don’t destroy your progress.

What that may mean could be that you will know when is the right time to stop buying when you would have  accumulated much Bitcoin portfolio for years you will of course know your break-even, the point of maturity of your portfolio to begin reapinng the profits.

Life emergency when it is about to hit you will not care about your structure and personal rules, they do not change neither influence the occurrence of uncertainty in life. Than been strict with rules, be flexible with it as you are investing cause that is how you can adjust to the changes brought about by uncertainty and unpredictable emergency and it will make you not panic since you can always adjust to suit present situation.

What I mean as an example in being flexible and not rule strict is that if you were investing 15% of your discretionary income monthly before an unpredictable emergency or conditions occurred that had to affect your monthly  discretionary %, you can adjust to 10% and still be consistent instead of being rules strict and finding it hard to be consistent with your Bitcoin investment.

[laspol65]

Seeing trading as a full time job is likely the same thing as seeing gambling as a full time job which to me is very wrong unless your full time just doesn't conote trading as a source of income. Trading is very risky and it will be wrong for anyone to see it or consider it as a full time or a job. The risk of a trader losing all his or her money is very high so such a thing shouldn't be considered as a full time job.

Those who make such comments are basically trying to mislead the newbies, comparing trading with investing should not be done in any way, as the newbies will get confused and will never understand the difference between the two stages. So, due to the greed of extra money, they may reach the training stage and may get confused about their holdings, so they should never follow a different path at the present time.
Using the most suitable strategy with long-term investment and buying Bitcoin at the right time and holding it for a long time is the only suitable one. And if you invest in Bitcoin following the DCA method, your investment will definitely reach success and it will be easy for that person to keep it for a long time, then he will be able to grow his portfolio even using the smallest amount of money.

[Charcol]

Seeing trading as a full time job is likely the same thing as seeing gambling as a full time job which to me is very wrong unless your full time just doesn't conote trading as a source of income. Trading is very risky and it will be wrong for anyone to see it or consider it as a full time or a job. The risk of a trader losing all his or her money is very high so such a thing shouldn't be considered as a full time job.

Using the most suitable strategy with long-term investment and buying Bitcoin at the right time and holding it for a long time is the only suitable one. And if you invest in Bitcoin following the DCA method, your investment will definitely reach success and it will be easy for that person to keep it for a long time, then he will be able to grow his portfolio even using the smallest amount of money.

Do you know what the right time is? I think you don't know, even no one knows. So there is no need to talk about this so-called right time to buy. For a new investor, setting a time limit at the beginning is just an excuse. If someone has discretionary income, he can start investing without setting a time limit.

Another thing is that there is no guarantee that the investment will be successful just by following the DCA method. DCA is just a method that is a good method for both beginners and experienced people. But if someone keeps doing DCA with the money he needs, then that DCA method will not be effective, even it will not be possible to hold it for a long time. On the other hand, if a person considers his financial situation and invests with discretionary income (even if he may not follow the DCA method for some reason), the chances will still be very high. Following a strategy makes the investment pattern easier. But if you invest by understanding your financial situation, you can hold that investment for a long time without stress. And our main plan for investment is usually long-term.

[red4slash]

That's just the beginning so that we can see if what we're doing is hindering or not because what I'm focusing on from the beginning here is about the beginners, when they don't have a problem then it's okay to make the situation bigger according to the strength we can invest.

My assumption here is that I don't want to be too burdensome but if they are confident enough from the start then it's fine to divide it by 100% for 3 parts equally with a choice of 33.xx% for investment and similarly with discretionary and emergency funds as they start.
Talking about the reserve fund that is getting more and more accumulated, of course this also needs adjustment and I think in this case we only need to redistribute it by excluding the emergency fund or giving a little smaller than the initial percentage.
Here we are just trying to make our investment not feel disturbed, right? So it doesn't matter if you want to put a little smaller when starting and adjust to be bigger over time.

After accumulating and building back up funds for a while at some point an investor just needs to pay attention to what's happening around him and he needs to understand how to properly allocate funds into several areas to balance things up. What matters is to consciously aware of all the areas and balancing them up in a way that will not make it unbalanced. Being aware will make you to figure out how how aggressive you can accumulate and how much you can allocate to your emergency fund when your reserve fund have reached over accumulation point. It's all about understanding that balance is not a fixed style instead it is something adjustable with time to reflect when changes come.

That is why it's important to have discretionary funds in Bitcoin investment. So that you don't need to pay attention on other matters but just continue to invest with that extra money that you have.

Because if you are using money to invest but then it should be allotted to things like payment on credit cards or bills, then you don't have a choice but at some point you will be force to withdraw your investment on Bitcoin so that you can pay those. So find first your comfort zone, and again, if you can budget in the beginning so that you will know your discretionary funds the better for you.

This is partly true but as I said before we also need to divide this discretionary fund into several things and it is in accordance with what I wrote earlier where we can divide 3 equally when starting and make changes over time because after all our funds still need a reserve or emergency fund from the start.
Indeed, this emergency fund may still be collected for several months and we can divert some of it into investment but from the beginning when we want comfort it is not a problem to make some arrangements for our cash flow so that investment is not disturbed and can be sustainable but on the one hand we do not forget the emergency fund that must exist.

So in this case the investment can be done from the smallest start first to see our readiness, when we are accustomed and feel no problem to increase our investment from discretionary funds without disturbing other funds then it can be increased with a note that we do not burden ourselves and are ready with it.
This can be more effective than doing it aggressively from the start (even though using discretionary funds) but not setting aside a reserve fund or emergency fund from the start, when we have unexpected needs then this will be difficult to cover because from the beginning we made the decision to invest fully. This can boomerang when our investment is disrupted due to poor initial decisions.

[Davidloki]

Who would love trading? Yes, there could be some of us who do that, maybe as a job or side hustle. But you need to have a lot of time in your side and be in constant with your laptop or pc. And then it's like a game or gambling itself, because you are looking at what could be the future price as we all know, no one has the crystal ball to see what the future holds. So for the majority, it's very hard and complicated. As compare to just be a long term holder, just accumulate let's say in the first 4 year as a Bitcoin enthusiast, and then see how it goes. Of course it's not that easy too as there could be temptations along the way specially when you see your X amount investment has been profiting Y amount. However, if you really look for the bigger picture and thinking about building generational wealth, I would suggest just to continue to accumulate as much as we can. We just hit 20 million Bitcoin being mined already. So everyone is going to be fighting for the remaining. So it will be scarce and with that, demands goes up. Others have a target to own at least 1 BTC in their life time. To be part of that group. So it's really better to continue or period of buying before we start thinking of selling if we have at least enough in our Bitcoin journey of 1 BTC in our wallet.

You're correct, trading is a "full time" job and is a really complex one than it just being a way to earn loads of money without even trying, its correct that is a full time and people oftenly mistake it as a hobby and the "crystal ball" usually leads to a burnout. The only safe and genuine way is BTC investing and that too DCA not just timing dips, DCA really stacks over time and you can even own a "whole Bitcoin" and the only thing that requires it is discipline.

Th more we keep talking about trading in this thread, the more we unintentionally convert newbies towards it. Which is not a good thing.
Most newbies will only store in mind the possibility of making quick money from it, rather than understanding the risks involved. The more often they hear about trading the more they will want to try it out. It is better we shift the attention away from trading, towards Bitcoin, how to accumulate, dca, and how to think long term. Those are the things that will help newbies joining this thread for the first time and it will help them start their journey knowing they are doing things correctly.

[Nheer]

Using the most suitable strategy with long-term investment and buying Bitcoin at the right time and holding it for a long time is the only suitable one. And if you invest in Bitcoin following the DCA method, your investment will definitely reach success and it will be easy for that person to keep it for a long time, then he will be able to grow his portfolio even using the smallest amount of money.

Do you know what the right time is? I think you don't know, even no one knows. So there is no need to talk about this so-called right time to buy. For a new investor, setting a time limit at the beginning is just an excuse. If someone has discretionary income, he can start investing without setting a time limit.

Another thing is that there is no guarantee that the investment will be successful just by following the DCA method. DCA is just a method that is a good method for both beginners and experienced people. But if someone keeps doing DCA with the money he needs, then that DCA method will not be effective, even it will not be possible to hold it for a long time. On the other hand, if a person considers his financial situation and invests with discretionary income (even if he may not follow the DCA method for some reason), the chances will still be very high. Following a strategy makes the investment pattern easier. But if you invest by understanding your financial situation, you can hold that investment for a long time without stress. And our main plan for investment is usually long-term.

Everytime is the right time. So whenever you have discretionary income , it is the right time to invest.
Most people here are of the idea that when you invest with DCA or hold for a long time success is bound to happen, they don't understand that nothing is guaranteed no matter what you do and how you invest. Investing well also doesn't guarantee success it just improve your chances of success and reduce mistakes. As you said DCA is just an accumulation strategy that helps us to be consistently buying Bitcoin, stay disciplined and stick to the long term goal. With DCA we set plans to build discipline but it doesn't determine our starting point, discretionary income does.

[CageMabok]

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Th more we keep talking about trading in this thread, the more we unintentionally convert newbies towards it. Which is not a good thing.
Most newbies will only store in mind the possibility of making quick money from it, rather than understanding the risks involved. The more often they hear about trading the more they will want to try it out. It is better we shift the attention away from trading, towards Bitcoin, how to accumulate, dca, and how to think long term. Those are the things that will help newbies joining this thread for the first time and it will help them start their journey knowing they are doing things correctly.

What you say is true, but lately I haven't seen many beginners coming to this thread to discuss it, except for a few, judging by the rankings. However, despite all that, I don't consider them beginners who lack understanding of the topic, because the way they discuss it shows that they have a clear understanding of the topic. Moreover, as long as the beginner can read or is willing to read carefully every comment that has been written in this topic, I think they will never get lost because every thing discussed here I see is very clear and also has a useful direction so that anyone who reads it will be able to understand and separate between what is good and what is not good for themselves.

[Fakhrulenclix]

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Th more we keep talking about trading in this thread, the more we unintentionally convert newbies towards it. Which is not a good thing.
Most newbies will only store in mind the possibility of making quick money from it, rather than understanding the risks involved. The more often they hear about trading the more they will want to try it out. It is better we shift the attention away from trading, towards Bitcoin, how to accumulate, dca, and how to think long term. Those are the things that will help newbies joining this thread for the first time and it will help them start their journey knowing they are doing things correctly.

What you say is true, but lately I haven't seen many beginners coming to this thread to discuss it, except for a few, judging by the rankings. However, despite all that, I don't consider them beginners who lack understanding of the topic, because the way they discuss it shows that they have a clear understanding of the topic. Moreover, as long as the beginner can read or is willing to read carefully every comment that has been written in this topic, I think they will never get lost because every thing discussed here I see is very clear and also has a useful direction so that anyone who reads it will be able to understand and separate between what is good and what is not good for themselves.

Sometimes some people just read and take a lot of benefits without engaging in much discussion, and personally, I do not deny that the discussions of friends in this thread are quite helpful for beginners to get motivated and confident in investing, and even quite helpful for some people who have had problems despite being in Bitcoin investment for a long time, like me. However, because of reading many discussions from friends here, there are many positive aspects that I take away.

[Yablee0]

Those who make such comments are basically trying to mislead the newbies, comparing trading with investing should not be done in any way, as the newbies will get confused and will never understand the difference between the two stages.

No matter what, we can't stop seeing people's that are only out for quick turn over because that's certain, but as for you that has already knows what you want which is life changing opportunity, just keep doing what you know best and forget about people that will later regret their actions in no time. However, their is no point stressing off the comparison between the both ( short term trading and Long term plan) because history has already made it clear that Bitcoin investment is more better on a long run, so any other side talk is not important, what really count is how far you're progressing in your accumulation journey.

And secondly, to the newbies around,  don't be deceived or carried away by short term gains because it's not aways what you think, perhaps it can destroy your chances of securing a life time fortune, don't let anyone make you choose what can only fix today and forget about tomorrow, moreover a single mistake you make today can destroy an entire future so be wise.

[PhilosopherKing]

You're correct, trading is a "full time" job and is a really complex one than it just being a way to earn loads of money without even trying, its correct that is a full time and people oftenly mistake it as a hobby and the "crystal ball" usually leads to a burnout. The only safe and genuine way is BTC investing and that too DCA not just timing dips, DCA really stacks over time and you can even own a "whole Bitcoin" and the only thing that requires it is discipline.

Anybody who think trading is way to make loads of money is deceiving their self. trading is packed with losses and the looss more than the gain you make, traders don't make up to 80% of profit before loss clear everything out.  If person don't enjoy being poor then they should quit trading and ongoingly invest with money that can be afforded to be loose. Investment will just be better than trading anytime or any day.

[JayJuanGee]

I agree to this fact and here is why. Since our investment timeline is not thesame as our accumulation timeline especially since every investor have their specific amount they can invest and begin to develop a feeling of being close to their overaccumulation stage. And this is mostly possible when investors frontload alot of bitcoin during their accumulation stage, that way they get to accumulate enough bitcoin even before their proposed long term investment timeline which they did set initially. If anyone gets to the overaccumulation stage the best they could do is to hold for the remaining timeline in their long term goal.

For me, I don't think that it's good to use a timeline that you will use to accumulate bitcoin instead, it's better to use a bitcoin target because you will be more focused since you have a target you are trying to meet up with. Unlike, when you're using a timeline.

If you are using a timeline for your bitcoin accumulation how will you know that you have reached your over accumulation stage when you don't have a bitcoin target. I don't have an investment timeline since I will love to hodli bitcoin till old age. If I have reached my bitcoin over accumulation stage, I can tap little profits using the sustainable withdrawal method and hodli for some years and buy back when there's a dip.

It can be difficult to determine what the target is and when overaccumulation status might have had been met since it could be based on a certain quantity of bitcoin (and how much income that bitcoin could provide) or it could be based (partly) on the value of how much had been put in, or maybe it is based on reaching a certain age in which you might be accumulating as much bitcoin as you are reasonably able to do until you reach a certain age, and then maybe some other tactics (or changes in tactics) might go into effect at certain age points.

None of those are unreasonable and there could be overshooting or undershooting of the goals in terms of how much bitcoin might have had been accumulated, and we might not know what the price is going to be in the future, and we might consider spot price, 200-WMA or some other ways of valuating our holdings relative to the price and how that might affect how we might deal with our holdings.

Why would a long term investor be thinking about "profits?"
You must be mixing up investing with trading.

An investor may well have a timeline of 4-10 years or longer and surely, if he does not have age or health concerns that might limit his investment timeline, then it would likely be prudent for an investor to be considering 10 years or longer for his bitcoin investment, so it might take one or two cycles just to accumulate enough bitcoin to potentially be able to consider selling some bitcoin (like shaving it off) at some point later down the road, yet I cannot see how an investor would be thinking about buying and selling both at the same time, since there likely is going to be a period of buying (aka accumulating bitcoin) and then maybe there is a period of just holding and/or maintaining before the selling might start to kick in at some later date, providing that enough or more than enough bitcoin were accumulated in the accumulating and/or maintaining phases of the investor's bitcoin journey.

Actually, if I had talked about wealth creation without the profit aspect, then the topic might have been presented nicely. But I didn't want to confuse trading with long-term investment in Bitcoin.

I don't like trading at all. Because it is a very complicated subject, although there is a possibility of getting rich and poor quickly from here, which is a cause of great mental unrest. I am a peace-loving person and considering my age, I might be able to invest for two cycles. But my point is, is it possible to build significant wealth in one cycle? And does investing with a single cycle in mind indicate trading? I would be very glad if you let me know.

One question can be how aggressive you are able to invest, and surely guys who invest 5-10% of their income are not going to end up stacking as much bitcoin (relative to their income) as compared with guys who might have had been able to invest 15% to 25% of their income.

Another thing to consider is what you plan to do with your bitcoin stash once you reach the timeline.. are you going to sell all of it, or are you going to try to start to employ some version of sustainable withdrawal? One cycle might not give you enough time to have had stackedf enough bitcoin to get the compounding effects, so it could be problematic to be selling a lot of your bitcoin, even though you were only in bitcoin for one cycle.

I have given examples in the past in order to attempt to show how much a person might have had been able to accumulate in one cycle versus 2 cycles and sometimes there can be really big differences based on when a guy got started and also whether he might have had been able to front load his investment... .. you can go to some DCA websites and see how differing amounts would work out differently based on when the guys had started to stack up bitcoin, even if we might presume that they were persistently stacking bitcoin on a weekly basis or some other fairly regular timeline.

By the way, if you have age and/or health considerations that don't really allow you to create a bitcoin invstment timeline of 10 years or longer, then yeah, you have to deal with the timeline that you have and even if you consider investing into bitcoin on a weekly basis for 4 years, by the time 4 years comes, then your earliest bitcoin purchases would have had a 4 year timeline, yet your more recent purchases would have hardly had no timeline, so they would not even meet the minimum of a 4 year requirement.  How does it make any sense if you are proclaiming to have at least a 4 year investment timeline, yet you were building up your bitcoin holdings on a weekly basis for the past 4 years and only the very first purchases end up meeting the minimum of a 4 year investment timeline... ..

One of the solutions is lump sum investing, yet a majority of normal peeps do not have enough money in order to buy a bunch of bitcoin and to front load their investment, so that is frequently the reason that they might spend 4-8 years or more DCA and just building their bitcoin holdings, and they might even have a year or two between the time that they are buying bitcoin and when they might transition into selling some of their bitcoin...so yeah, bitcoin tends to be a long investment based on both how long it takes to build it up and then how long it might take for the whole portfolio to compound value upon itself, and even though you might be saying that you are an investor, you may well merely be a trader waiting for some kind of a price pump so that you can cash out most, if not all of your bitcoin holdings, so you are not really serious about bitcoin investing, even if you are using the words and trying to proclaim that you are an investor rather than a trader, but instead you are merely waiting for a pump so you can cash out.. and that's not investing, from my point of view.

I agree to this fact and here is why. Since our investment timeline is not thesame as our accumulation timeline especially since every investor have their specific amount they can invest and begin to develop a feeling of being close to their overaccumulation stage. And this is mostly possible when investors frontload alot of bitcoin during their accumulation stage, that way they get to accumulate enough bitcoin even before their proposed long term investment timeline which they did set initially. If anyone gets to the overaccumulation stage the best they could do is to hold for the remaining timeline in their long term goal.

For me, I don't think that it's good to use a timeline that you will use to accumulate bitcoin instead, it's better to use a bitcoin target because you will be more focused since you have a target you are trying to meet up with. Unlike, when you're using a timeline.

If you are using a timeline for your bitcoin accumulation how will you know that you have reached your over accumulation stage when you don't have a bitcoin target. I don't have an investment timeline since I will love to hodli bitcoin till old age. If I have reached my bitcoin over accumulation stage, I can tap little profits using the sustainable withdrawal method and hodli for some years and buy back when there's a dip.

Surely setting a target 🎯 will make you more serious and focus in achieving it although using timelines for your Bitcoin investments journey is not bad but setting a target makes you have a purpose and a goal, if there is one thing I have learnt about humans is that once there is something to achieve, the work ethic is way up on another level. The best move to take when the over accumulation is reached is always to sell off good profit atleast there is a welcome idea to enjoy the fruit of your labor and also you have more opportunities to buy any possible dip that comes around.

Of course, you are in a trader mindset rather than an investment mindset... and perhaps you don't even understand the value of holding and accumulating bitcoin, especially since you are so exited to sell of a chunk of your bitcoin once you reached overaccumulation status.. and also that hardly makes any sense, since your selling may well end up knocking you out of overaccumulation status, so then what the fuck good did it do you to reach overaccumulation status and then sell a big chunk of your BTC stash and knock yourself out of overaccumulation status merely because, for some reason, you have still not figured out the value of holding bitcoin rather than cash.

If you want to defend your eagerness to sell a BIG chunk of your BTC in order to reward yourself (and maybe buy hookers, lambo and some blow), then maybe you want to describe the particulars that you expect to work out in order that you can put into practice such nonsensical and unnecessary approach to how you might plan to manage your bitcoin stash upon reaching "overaccumulation status," if you even have any clue about what that actually means.

[edited out]

I really like how you explained this. Life isn’t perfect and many people fall behind not just because they are lazy, but because their plan stopped matching their real life situation. I still believe consistency is the biggest edge in Bitcoin. But like you said, just telling people “buy aggressively until it makes sense to stop” can be dangerous if they don’t have a clear personal plan.

My main point is this: Have a personal rule and structure that fits your life and make sure you follow it. If you don’t have a strong reason why you’re holding Bitcoin, it’s easy to panic and sell early. At the end of the day, Bitcoin rewards people who treat it as a long term part of their life, not just a quick gamble. Mistakes will happen, but a clear plan makes sure those mistakes don’t destroy your progress.

What is your example of a plan then samadam007 - for yourself or maybe a plan that you might consider that a reasonable person might have for himself.

I don't find it a problem if a person might not have a plan in place in the very beginning, since maybe the initial plan might merely be to start to invest into bitcoin and to become accustomed to how investing in bitcoin works and then later figure out how investing in bitcoin might fit into a longer term plan - especially we are considering bitcoin to be a fit in terms of investing rather than trading.. I am not much of a fan of trading, even though surely bitcoin can make a very good investment for a lot of people as long as they are able to generate a discretionary income.

[edited out]

You're correct, trading is a "full time" job and is a really complex one than it just being a way to earn loads of money without even trying, its correct that is a full time and people oftenly mistake it as a hobby and the "crystal ball" usually leads to a burnout. The only safe and genuine way is BTC investing and that too DCA not just timing dips, DCA really stacks over time and you can even own a "whole Bitcoin" and the only thing that requires it is discipline.

That is strange that you believe that trading allows folks to make money (whether they try or not).  Frequently, when it comes to trading, it may well be better to have an outside source  of income and then perhaps to start to dabble in trading and see if you are actually able to make money consistently, and even if you are able to make money for a while, it might be problematic to quit your work and then to expect that you would be able to support yourself by trading.

A similar thing is true with bitcoin investment. It is likely better to have an outside job with enough income that it generates discretionary funds, and so a bitcoin investment portfolio can be built from the outside job.  Guys who believe that they can invest in bitcoin and to earn their money from trading, they are likely in a very amazing fantasy, unless they have really worked out a system that is profitable and they have put it to practice in the real world, not just in theory.  There are not very many guys who would be able to support an investment in bitcoin by generating funds from trading and also be able to pay their living expenses at a reasonable expense rate.. especially consistently over 4-8 years or longer..

[Oasisman]

[edited out]

You're correct, trading is a "full time" job and is a really complex one than it just being a way to earn loads of money without even trying, its correct that is a full time and people oftenly mistake it as a hobby and the "crystal ball" usually leads to a burnout. The only safe and genuine way is BTC investing and that too DCA not just timing dips, DCA really stacks over time and you can even own a "whole Bitcoin" and the only thing that requires it is discipline.

That is strange that you believe that trading allows folks to make money (whether they try or not).  Frequently, when it comes to trading, it may well be better to have an outside source  of income and then perhaps to start to dabble in trading and see if you are actually able to make money consistently, and even if you are able to make money for a while, it might be problematic to quit your work and then to expect that you would be able to support yourself by trading.

A similar thing is true with bitcoin investment. It is likely better to have an outside job with enough income that it generates discretionary funds, and so a bitcoin investment portfolio can be built from the outside job.  Guys who believe that they can invest in bitcoin and to earn their money from trading, they are likely in a very amazing fantasy, unless they have really worked out a system that is profitable and they have put it to practice in the real world, not just in theory.  There are not very many guys who would be able to support an investment in bitcoin by generating funds from trading and also be able to pay their living expenses at a reasonable expense rate.. especially consistently over 4-8 years or longer..

I thought most people had learned about this? I mean, you're right, people who want to engage in trading or just simply DCA-ing Bitcoin should always have a source of income outside of it. Otherwise, it will bear a lot of risks on their end, not just losing some percentage of their capital after a trade loss or an emergency that requires immediate funds, but also the risks of bankruptcy.
There were people who quit their jobs before, as they thought Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies could consistently generate them good profits, because of their highly volatile nature, but that same reason fails them.

It's really weird for people to speak about trading being treated as a full-time job when in reality, it's never easy, and it is very stressful.
What happens when a person quits their 9-5 job to commit to full-time trading, then eventually gets burnt out and decides to quit trading, because it is emotionally and financially draining?

I remember these modern trading quotes, lol :
 "Trading is the hardest way to earn easy money," and “When your income depends on the market, emotions become your biggest liability.”
 

[Bryan jessy]

[edited out]

One thing I’ve understood is when you practice something for a long time it becomes a habit and a disciplined investor will most likely find it difficult to stop buying even when he has reached over accumulation.
Then again another thing is over accumulation is relative, it all depends on the individual’s goal and financial performance. While the one with 12BTC might be struggling with his discipline to keep buying or not the other with 1.2BTC might be thinking he’s okay with his stack.
We can’t say for sure what level is over accumulation for people, they have to determine that for themselves.

Yeah.. hahahahaha

Some guys will come to dumb conclusions and they will either stop accumulating bitcoin way too soon and/or they will sell too many bitcoin too soon, and then end up having fun staying poor...since they might have had let 10 years pass without realizing that their bitcoin accumulation (if any?) had ended up being way too whimpy within the context of their own finances, psychology and/or goals.

There can be objectively better or worse choices that guys can make, and sometimes guys don't really recognize their own situations until they had already screwed up, so they get 10 years down the road, and they realize that they fucked up.. they either stopped accumulating bitcoin way too soon, or they sold way too many too soon, and so after 10 years, they are still in a position where they are feeling like they are just getting started when they should instead be much further down the road towards making progress, and frequently they had been failing/refusing to act, and in the context of bitcoin the action tends to be ongoing, persistent, consistent, regular and perhaps even aggressive buying of bitcoin until the numbers start to make sense that such letting off of the ongoing buying of bitcoin might start to make sense.

There’s a lot of truth in what you’ve said and I do agree with you here, inasmuch as I do feel like it kinda leans heavily on the idea that there’s kinda like a particular right path everyone failed to follow. The truth is that, a lot of folks who ended up behind after 10 years didn’t do so solely because they were lazy or even clueless. Some of these guys ended up there because the strategy/plan they chose to follow never really aligned with their actual life. Income changes, priorities shifts, fear or confidence suddenly shows up during the bull runs. Those ain’t just mistakes, as long as we are humans, they’ll most likely happen eventually, especially in our interactions with an asset that’s as volatile as Bitcoin.

On the consistency part, I completely agree with you 100%. I’ve come to realize that a lot of those who ended up regret things later on were either those who weren’t consistent, those who went too fast and ended up burning out too quickly, or those who couldn’t keep up with the market anymore and decided to stop accumulating just because things became uncertain at some point. It has been proven that the market tends to reward consistency and determination more than emotional decision making. But the phrase “aggressive buying until it makes sense to stop” can turn out to be a dangerous advice to someone, especially if they haven’t really defined what “makes sense” actually means for them. They can easily misinterpret this statement to suit their own personal preferences without really understanding what you really mean. So if they don’t really have the clarity about what makes sense means, they’ll most likely keep moving the goalpost.

Another problem investors often encounter is selling too quickly, but the truth is that, this decision is mostly driven by uncertainty than it is poor judgment. Imagine a situation where someone never really built that conviction or have that plan for what they’re really accumulating bitcoin for, sure these are not required for someone who wants to start accumulating bitcoin, which is in the early stages of the accumulation, but it’s compulsory for every investor to build that conviction and have that goal along the line, else they’ll most likely cash out the moment the feel they’re in profit or begin to feel pressured or uncertain at some point, which makes them more of a gambler than an actual investor. We can’t say this decision was due to weakness, but some missing piece of the puzzle. So the real problem goes beyond just the decision to cash out early, but not really knowing the reason why you were actually HODLing.

So in my opinion, the real mistake isn’t just about selling too much or quitting quickly, it’s actually engaging without a structure or a real target, because when folks have clear targets and goals, risk tolerance, and how Bitcoin accumulation fits into their overall financial life, then even if they end up making some stupid moves or make some silly decisions, it’ll most likely not set them back completely the way you described. But an investor is merely reacting and making decisions based on price and narratives, then they’ll find out that even after 10 years, they’ll almost just at a spot or maybe moving in circles.

I really like how you explained this. Life isn’t perfect and many people fall behind not just because they are lazy, but because their plan stopped matching their real life situation. I still believe consistency is the biggest edge in Bitcoin. But like you said, just telling people “buy aggressively until it makes sense to stop” can be dangerous if they don’t have a clear personal plan.

My main point is this: Have a personal rule and structure that fits your life and make sure you follow it. If you don’t have a strong reason why you’re holding Bitcoin, it’s easy to panic and sell early. At the end of the day, Bitcoin rewards people who treat it as a long term part of their life, not just a quick gamble. Mistakes will happen, but a clear plan makes sure those mistakes don’t destroy your progress.

This is a suitable fact of the saying "he who fails to plan is planning to fail," there is no two ways to succeeding without proper plans and a good approach to achieving that particular thing. Life complexity requires target and strategies towards everything a person may encounter, without predictions or just exaggerating but rather a good mindset and and logical approach will direct every action to yielding a positive results, investment without these attributes is likely not to yield bountifully just as a person has hoped for. That's why for a project to give a resolution to the general public it must have a clear aims and objectives.

[samadam007]

[edited out]

I really like how you explained this. Life isn’t perfect and many people fall behind not just because they are lazy, but because their plan stopped matching their real life situation. I still believe consistency is the biggest edge in Bitcoin. But like you said, just telling people “buy aggressively until it makes sense to stop” can be dangerous if they don’t have a clear personal plan.

My main point is this: Have a personal rule and structure that fits your life and make sure you follow it. If you don’t have a strong reason why you’re holding Bitcoin, it’s easy to panic and sell early. At the end of the day, Bitcoin rewards people who treat it as a long term part of their life, not just a quick gamble. Mistakes will happen, but a clear plan makes sure those mistakes don’t destroy your progress.

What is your example of a plan then samadam007 - for yourself or maybe a plan that you might consider that a reasonable person might have for himself.

I don't find it a problem if a person might not have a plan in place in the very beginning, since maybe the initial plan might merely be to start to invest into bitcoin and to become accustomed to how investing in bitcoin works and then later figure out how investing in bitcoin might fit into a longer term plan - especially we are considering bitcoin to be a fit in terms of investing rather than trading.. I am not much of a fan of trading, even though surely bitcoin can make a very good investment for a lot of people as long as they are able to generate a discretionary income.

it’s totally fine to start without a perfect plan. Many people (including me) began by just buying a small amount of Bitcoin regularly to get comfortable with it, learn how it moves, and build the habit. That learning phase is normal and actually smart especially if you’re treating it as a long term investment and not trading.
Here’s a simple and realistic accumulation plan that I follow and that I think would work well for a normal person:
I buy a fixed amount of Bitcoin every month, no matter if the price is high or low. This could be 5%, 10%, or 15% of my discretionary income.
And why I do it is because Bitcoin is my long term wealth preservation asset.

I might only sell when I actually need the money for a big life goal, but I won’t sell just because the price goes up or down.
 
Never borrow or invest money I can’t afford to lose. If my income drops, I automatically reduce the monthly amount,no stress.

Once a year, I check if this still fits my life and adjust if needed (increase buying when income grows).
This plan is flexible but has structure. It removes emotion and stops me from guessing the market or selling because of panic.
I agree you don’t need a full detailed plan on day one. But after months of buying, it really helps to define why you’re holding Bitcoin, what you hope to achieve with it and how much money is going into it.
That clarity is what turns early buyers into people who actually keep going through the tough years.

[Creeper0]

This is a suitable fact of the saying "he who fails to plan is planning to fail," there is no two ways to succeeding without proper plans and a good approach to achieving that particular thing. Life complexity requires target and strategies towards everything a person may encounter, without predictions or just exaggerating but rather a good mindset and and logical approach will direct every action to yielding a positive results, investment without these attributes is likely not to yield bountifully just as a person has hoped for. That's why for a project to give a resolution to the general public it must have a clear aims and objectives.

Our lives are full of uncertainty, none of us know what is going to happen in the next moment. Even the global situation is very uncertain. Since investment depends on our life and the global situation, investment can also be affected by changes in our life and global situation. This is especially likely in the long term.

When we are making long-term investment plans, we need to plan and back-up plans for small changes. While planning, we cannot ignore even a small possibility. Nothing is perfect, but we have to try to make our investment plan perfect enough. If we ignore even a small possibility and cannot have a back-up plan for that possibility, then we cannot call that plan perfect, maybe that mistake can be enough for failure. Investment planning requires foresight and it is necessary to be as prudent as possible in real life so that we can understand any critical situation and take the best possible steps.

[The Founding Titan]

[edited out]

I really like how you explained this. Life isn’t perfect and many people fall behind not just because they are lazy, but because their plan stopped matching their real life situation. I still believe consistency is the biggest edge in Bitcoin. But like you said, just telling people “buy aggressively until it makes sense to stop” can be dangerous if they don’t have a clear personal plan.

My main point is this: Have a personal rule and structure that fits your life and make sure you follow it. If you don’t have a strong reason why you’re holding Bitcoin, it’s easy to panic and sell early. At the end of the day, Bitcoin rewards people who treat it as a long term part of their life, not just a quick gamble. Mistakes will happen, but a clear plan makes sure those mistakes don’t destroy your progress.

What is your example of a plan then samadam007 - for yourself or maybe a plan that you might consider that a reasonable person might have for himself.

I don't find it a problem if a person might not have a plan in place in the very beginning, since maybe the initial plan might merely be to start to invest into bitcoin and to become accustomed to how investing in bitcoin works and then later figure out how investing in bitcoin might fit into a longer term plan - especially we are considering bitcoin to be a fit in terms of investing rather than trading.. I am not much of a fan of trading, even though surely bitcoin can make a very good investment for a lot of people as long as they are able to generate a discretionary income.

it’s totally fine to start without a perfect plan. Many people (including me) began by just buying a small amount of Bitcoin regularly to get comfortable with it, learn how it moves, and build the habit. That learning phase is normal and actually smart especially if you’re treating it as a long term investment and not trading.
Here’s a simple and realistic accumulation plan that I follow and that I think would work well for a normal person:
I buy a fixed amount of Bitcoin every month, no matter if the price is high or low. This could be 5%, 10%, or 15% of my discretionary income.
And why I do it is because Bitcoin is my long term wealth preservation asset.

I might only sell when I actually need the money for a big life goal, but I won’t sell just because the price goes up or down.
 
Never borrow or invest money I can’t afford to lose. If my income drops, I automatically reduce the monthly amount,no stress.

Once a year, I check if this still fits my life and adjust if needed (increase buying when income grows).
This plan is flexible but has structure. It removes emotion and stops me from guessing the market or selling because of panic.
I agree you don’t need a full detailed plan on day one. But after months of buying, it really helps to define why you’re holding Bitcoin, what you hope to achieve with it and how much money is going into it.
That clarity is what turns early buyers into people who actually keep going through the tough years.

I liked that when you said a fixed amount you still limited to a percentage of your discretionary income and not a particular amount regardless of your discretionary income, most people make the mistake of deciding on a fixed amount from what the earn in total and not a percentage of their discretionary income, these people are more prone to selling unexpectedly, our discretionary income fluctuates so when we decide to invest a particular percentage of it in bitcoin it doesn't matter that our discretionary income goes up or down the percentage is the same, so we might invest more this month and invest less the next month but that's because our discretionary income isn't fixed so our DCAed amount is also shifting in respect to how much we have in our discretionary income.
If you are investing 30% or your discretionary income weekly and you had $100 as your discretionary income the first week then you are investing $30 that week but if by the next week your discretionary income is $150 your 30% investment remain but instead of $30 you will be investing $45, the same percentage but different prices.

[New Judgement]

I might only sell when I actually need the money for a big life goal, but I won’t sell just because the price goes up or down.

If you have a big life goal that you want to achieve in the future, you better start making plans and start saving up gradually for it and not depend on your bitcoin investment. What if by the time you want to achieve this life goal comes and bitcoin is big dip, and you know that if you sell you will be in total loss, will you go ahead and sell even though you are aware that your portfolio is not up to half of what you have invested? When investing in bitcoin, it is important we don’t put any of our future plans or achievements on the bitcoin investment. We should invest without placing any demands on our investment because anything can happen. Plan for your other life goals outside of your bitcoin so that you won’t be under any pressure, or disappointed when that time comes and your bitcoin investment is in a state where it can’t help you.