Countdown to the 4th Bitcoin halving.. what should we expect?

[Iamcrypticguy]

We've been hearing about the Bitcoin halving for a while, and some may be confused about its significance. In this post, I'll simplify it 😁. Let's hope I'm able to do that.

Bitcoin undergoes a halving event approximately every four years, with the fourth halving estimated to occur around April 23, 2024, at block height 840,000. This event reduces the block reward for miners from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC. Halvings limit the issuance of new bitcoins, impacting supply dynamics and historically correlating with crypto bull markets.

Some may ask about the impact of the Bitcoin halving. In my opinion, the halving significantly affects economics, sustainability, and ecosystem development. Economically, it slows the circulation of new bitcoins, affecting supply and demand equilibrium and potentially increasing market value. It highlights Bitcoin's deflationary nature, appealing to long-term investors as a store of value. Sustainability-wise, it ensures continuous Bitcoin production, supporting mining and network operation. In terms of ecosystem development, it boosts Bitcoin's price, attracting attention, funds, and talent to the blockchain sector, shaping its future trajectory and sparking discussions on Bitcoin's value and role in digital finance.

Some may wonder how this affects the price of Bitcoin going forward. From historical data, Bitcoin has always risen after the previous three halvings. Let's see if this trend continues.

What's your take on this? How excited are you for this halving, and what's your prediction for BTC price movements?
https://www.bitget.com/bigtime/bitcoin-halving

[kryptqnick]

On halving, we should expect the miners' reward to be reduced by a half. That's what this event is about. We can also expect more media attention on Bitcoin than usual, maybe a few articles about halving. There's no direct correlation between halvings and bull markets because counting whatever happens over the next 1 year or so and attributing that to halving is stretching it. During 2016 halving, the price stayed roughly the same as pre-halving, and the bull market properly hit only at the end of 2017. The 2020 halving was also largely uneventful, with the price really starting to grow in October of the same year. So this time, it will probably also be pretty uneventful.

[Kalam001]

On halving, we should expect the miners' reward to be reduced by a half. That's what this event is about. We can also expect more media attention on Bitcoin than usual, maybe a few articles about halving. There's no direct correlation between halvings and bull markets because counting whatever happens over the next 1 year or so and attributing that to halving is stretching it. During 2016 halving, the price stayed roughly the same as pre-halving, and the bull market properly hit only at the end of 2017. The 2020 halving was also largely uneventful, with the price really starting to grow in October of the same year. So this time, it will probably also be pretty uneventful.

I don't think it is ok or advisable to invest in it yet if you don't want to loose money or your capital because since Bitcoin has no underlying value but only have a cost to produce
its value by entirely subjecting to demands and dynamics
and only tends to have a positive impact only if further restrictions are made to the supply. So it is advisable to stay put until an assurance is being giving base on it.

[SamReomo]

What's your take on this? How excited are you for this halving, and what's your prediction for BTC price movements?

I believe that halving event is one of the most important aspects of Bitcoin and it has contributed a lot to the growth of Bitcoin. Like most others, I also believe that the halving event will allow Bitcoin to grow in value because when the number of mined bitcoins are reduced to half then that somehow creates scarcity and because of scarcity the value of Bitcoin grows overtime.

Bitcoin's price won't be affected to huge degrees during the halving events if we see the history of it, but this time due to the ETFs, I believe the value of Bitcoin will grow during the halving event. I think that Bitcoin may reach $75k value during the halving event this time. However, I also think that it may reach or cross $80k value if a new rally takes place.

[aoluain]

Well just based on what has happened around previous halvings the Bitcoin price will climb
for approximately 12 months after the halving. How high will that go? this a very intriguing
question...there are very different forces in play this time around - as in ETF's.

There will be corrections on the journey after the halving too but generally overall there
should be a rise.

I just cant help thinking that the reduced Bitcoin block reward couple with the ETF buy
pressure will play out in the Supply v's Demand.

Price ? pure guess at over $150k ^{conservative guess}

[Zaguru12]

I believe that halving event is one of the most important aspects of Bitcoin and it has contributed a lot to the growth of Bitcoin. Like most others, I also believe that the halving event will allow Bitcoin to grow in value because when the number of mined bitcoins are reduced to half then that somehow creates scarcity and because of scarcity the value of Bitcoin grows overtime.

I wouldn’t say bitcoin halving is significant alone for bitcoin even though that’s what it’s supposed to be but it is significant to the entire cryptocurrency in such that whenever bitcoin halving happens market plummet and also more new coins are even lunched. So to me now it is a universal period to all cryptocurrency.

As for OP, There are many bitcoin predictions for the upcoming bull run, the predictions in the past were shaped by past trends but this time around bitcoin seems to be moving in different directions as we have even hit a new ATH before the halving occurs which is not usual and many people are thinking of it moving massively This period. My prediction still remains a ATH of $170k.

[sunsilk]

How excited are you for this halving

Excited as how everyone is excited at this moment when we're all seeing the price moves up quickly while we're waiting for it as it's just around the corner.

and what's your prediction for BTC price movements?

Safe prediction will be $100k and close to it. But if not, we're certainly going to be past $70k at this rate.

ETFs are still there and once the ETF buyers understands that they can buy their own Bitcoin through exchanges, p2p or any other method.

They're going to choose to have it and hold it with their own wallets rather than go with the ETFs and brokers.

[spectre71]

Well allot has changed since the last halving. There is very little BTC left to mine and the only TRUE effect is to the miners.

The rest is all emotional responses.

If it flashes up a few months after I will take peoples money.

Thank-you

[GreatArkansas]

Look at this simple chart showing previous block halvings and the price of Bitcoin on every block halving.
If we will just follow this, it clearly shows that for every Bitcoin block halving, we always create new all-time highs.

I'm just worried that before we break, are we expecting a huge dump before we will go Giga pump

[tranthidung]

If you want to see possible next things on the market, check the market history.

In previous cycles, Bitcoin makes a parabolic curve after breaking its previous ATH but in this cycle, we are witnessing a totally different thing. Bitcoin breaks its previous ATH, a first ever time before its halving.

In previous cycles, there are big corrections, wash-outs before a parabolic curve kick-off.

Just some notes from market history, market can repeats itself or be different.

Some information about market drawdowns.

• Bitcoin price history, ATHs and bottoms.
• Visit dashboards
  
  • https://studio.glassnode.com/workbench/bf532ce2-a66b-4798-6deb-bf3ba7decc59
  • https://cryptoquant.com/community/dashboard/650de954ca432c72d6ef82b1

[CODE200]

In my opinion, what we should expect in this halving is the same thing that we've done before the other halvings, definitely expect the unexpected because expecting something that's fixed when halving will only lead you to a life full of disappointment. Say if you expect the price to pump after halving and it doesn't, what you've been preparing before halving expecting it to pump is going to go for nothing, same with expecting that a dump would happen after halving. Now when you expect the unexpected, you're prepared both ways and you're not going to be caught off guard and you'd easily adapt to what the situation calls for, people seem to forget that bitcoin is an ever volatile cryptocurrency so I don't get how we still want to do some kind of expectations that will most likely lead to a disappointment and frustration.

[Text]

Almost everyone expects nothing but the bullish cycle trend of it. History remains the general basis of our predictions; we've seen that halving events tend to coincide with significant price movements in Bitcoin, so there's certainly an air of optimism surrounding the potential for another bull market cycle. It's always exciting as the halving approaches because many are anticipating it. Long-term fundamentals and adoption trends are what ultimately drive the value of Bitcoin. There will be another new milestone with the upcoming halving, reaching a new ATH.

[btc78]

Very excited. You can say that I am even buzzing with excitement. However along excitement comes nervousness. Yes, we are expecting that bitcoin will reach new highs so it is essential to correctly position yourself in the market. The amount of bitcoin accumulated is also a factor to consider. It’s hard to be confident and certain about your coin because there are always ‘what ifs’ and things like that but we just have to keep being optimistic and analyze the market well.

[TravelMug]

Very excited. You can say that I am even buzzing with excitement. However along excitement comes nervousness. Yes, we are expecting that bitcoin will reach new highs so it is essential to correctly position yourself in the market. The amount of bitcoin accumulated is also a factor to consider. It’s hard to be confident and certain about your coin because there are always ‘what ifs’ and things like that but we just have to keep being optimistic and analyze the market well.

Yes, even for those who have experienced a block halving still pretty much excited for us. But I guess we will have to settle down a bit after the halving, and we shouldn't expect a sudden growth in prices, it might take months before we will see the effect of halving, supply is dwindling but the demand is going to sour = price going up into 6 digits. So with that we should be optimistic as you have said, and patience will be the key as well. For our stash, we should keep it safe and if we have time and money, still continue to accumulate even if we are fast approaching the halving.

[Maus0728]

With all things that's happening in my life, I don't think that I'd ever want to be thinking too much about what's next for bitcoin in it's 4th halving, just do DCA I guess and hope for the best, take profit in the case that the price goes up after halving or buying more bitcoin/increasing the amount that I buy when I DCA when the price goes down, just be adaptable, bitcoin would always be unpredictable and just like what @CODE200 just said "expectations lead to disappointment", I like to also add to that part that it will lead to disappointment if you know in the first place that it's already unpredictable and that your expectations are already out of bounds.

[PrivacyG]

I do agree with what Maus0728 has to say.  Do not have too high expectations, it will likely not make you Rich unless you time the moves perfectly and already have a hefty amount of Dollars invested.

Expect Bitcoin to do less gains than previous cycles.  I could be wrong considering the ETF approval and how much money flow there will be this time.  But why not have a modest expectation?  You can never go wrong with a modest one.

[Bananington]

All we can do is hope for the best and pray against the worst scenario yet.
Everyone has some expectations of sort. As some want to observe before coming onboard, others would want to time the accuracy of the halving and duration it is supposed to last.
Although miners fees will have to be reduced in half, as well as every BTC out there, I expect the bull season fully not like the prelude since the start of this year and since the approval of the ETF projects, that did more to increase its demand. I also expect the price of BTC to be around $100k and more as some are speculating so as to know the signals that I can rely on more, that is incase I do venture into trading fully or DCA  or be if help to a friend who trades or HoDLs and needs the information to succeed.

[pooya87]

This "cycle" a lot of things are different from previous ones. The biggest difference is that up until early 2020's the global economy was mostly stable but after the pandemic which was immediately followed by conflicts the economy has been "unstable" and we are experiencing recession globally. That has a significant effect on bitcoin market and its price.

We should take that into account when speculating. However, I still believe we are going to see the same behavior as before meaning a series of rises before halving that are only based on hype followed by a drop (or better say correction) right before the halving date. Then the big rally starts after halving when the supply creation rate is actually cut by half.
The only difference I can expect from this time is the overall size of the "cycle". For example in previous one in 2017 we went from $150 to $20000 but I don't expect the same rise now to go from $3200 to $420000 but 6 digits is still possible.

[Luzin]

Just some notes from market history, market can repeats itself or be different.

Historically, that should also be the case. But does this raise a bit of a question why this happened before the Halving? Whether that cycle will change I don't know. But in the current calculation, the halving target for this period in my opinion is above $100k. So I still hope there is an increase after there is a dumping that happens. The market also continues to change after the ETF is approved, the best way is to always be vigilant so that we do not lose the moment.

[peter0425]

We've been hearing about the Bitcoin halving for a while, and some may be confused about its significance. In this post, I'll simplify it 😁. Let's hope I'm able to do that.

its not about the talking because Halving is truly happening in April , and this will not happen for a while because this will happen every 4 years and we have seen that for 4th year now.

Some may wonder how this affects the price of Bitcoin going forward. From historical data, Bitcoin has always risen after the previous three halvings. Let's see if this trend continues.

but this time All Time High price of Bitcoin have already  broken even before the halving happens so the trend may change , lets see what happens next.