Today could be the turning point in this wider debate, also Sunday and the end of week forming the close to the weekly bar will give us a good clue either way. I want to see at least a close above the 50 day moving average.
What is happening right now of note is not just a recovery short term above the 62k mark which is bottom edge to the ranged box BTC traded in for nearly 2 months. Also wider term we have to see in balance is the medium term momentum, 50 DMA is flattening out which means we can turn negative in a more serious way.
Since I got into the habit of famous quotes recently, as an analogy and in the unfortunate recent news context I find this one relevant:
I come bearing an olive branch in one hand, and the freedom fighter's gun in the other. Do not let the olive branch fall from my hand.
I do find us on the precipice, we cant stay here forever. With 50 day average threatening to decline every day we must find positive price action to counter act now or never. Perhaps in BTC terms last dramatic but I find we need positive action now or it could be till autumn we have to wait to make this same fight upwards; likely lower over the summer is my thoughts.
A couple indicators show us weaker now with the weight of volume then late Feb, price doesnt yet show that up.