Is the halving already priced in?

[Abiky]

BTC has been "pumped" massively ever since the spot ETFs were approved in the US a few months ago. The rise has been exponential, making BTC reach a new ATH before the halving. This has never happened before in the history of crypto (AFAIK).

Considering that BTC is in a new ATH, I wonder if the halving is already priced in? If that's the case, then market prices will remain relatively the same post-halving. Don't you think?

Your input would be greatly appreciated. Thank you.

[thecodebear]

If the halving being priced in meant that all Bitcoin did was return to around the old ATH, then all it would ever do is return to the old ATH each cycle, and not actually go up further. Follow me?

Bitcoin is ONLY around the old ATH. Every cycle Bitcoin goes MUCH higher than the old ATH. So the halving can't possibly be priced in, because we haven't even yet had a bull run that goes massively far above the old ATH.


Every market cycle, once the ATH high gets broken by a good amount, the media gradually starts reporting more and more about how Bitcoin is crushing its old highs, and gradually over months more and more new people come into the market. That hasn't even started yet. The next retail wave has even started coming into the market. We're honestly probably a few months away from that even starting, because first they are going to need to be hearing about Bitcoin blowing past the old ATH for a while. Going a few thousand dollars above the old ATH for a couple weeks doesn't do the job.


If the price were currently at like $140k or something, you could reasonably ask if it is already priced in. But seeing as its currently about a thousand below last cycle's peak, the answer is no, it isn't priced in, the bull run is barely even getting started. To compare to the last two bull runs, right now it's like early 2017 when Bitcoin was hanging around the previous ATH for the first few month of the year, of in late 2020 when the price hung out around $17k-$19k for a few weeks before finally breaking $20k. Of course the details will never be the same, and thanks to the ETFs the price got up to the old ATH about half a year early, so we can't say "oh well last time it was a few weeks and then doubled quickly so this time we should expect it to double by end of Spring". That obviously doesn't work. But what we can say is that the price is only at the old ATH, which means the bull run is only just starting, or about to get started. The big frenzied hype boom phase hasn't even started. We should probably be looking for a peak for this cycle within 12 months, perhaps very late 2024 or winter/spring 2025. You really don't need to be worried about it being priced in yet. Just as in 2017 the halving wasn't priced in when the price hit ~$1150, and in 2020 the halving wasn't priced in at ~$20k.

[blckhawk]

At this point, your theory would be valid because bitcoin never had this before which means that it could go with either halving making the price go even higher or lower or stable, what happens after halving because of this happening could be an endless possibility, it will not be the same as when halving starts and passes, expect the price to rise, it's not the case on this one anymore. It's going to be more preparations more than ever too because with all the possibilities, you need to prepare on each situations that would happen; in the case that the price goes up, you need to up your investment game and increase what you're hodling, in the case that it would go down, you need to increase your savings in fiat so you can get more value out of bitcoin and you don't miss out when the price of bitcoin gets cheaper and in the case of stability in prices, probably do both I guess but much more milder.

[crwth]

I don't think it will ever be the same as the price is now because as there are known scarce amount of BTC that will ever be, it's supply would just be less and less and if we are just here and the price is already at this range, as long as no one sells their BTC, it would increase more in price. The longer we stay in a certain range, the more likely it could go up because people would get used to that price already and would not want to sell for that amount.

[hd49728]

BTC has been "pumped" massively ever since the spot ETFs were approved in the US a few months ago. The rise has been exponential, making BTC reach a new ATH before the halving. This has never happened before in the history of crypto (AFAIK).

It is a first time in Bitcoin history and it is contributed a lot by speculation on probability of Bitcoin Spot ETF approvals, then after approvals it was contributed by massive new capital from those ETFs. Without them, Bitcoin would have not made a new all time high many weeks before its halving in 2024.

Considering that BTC is in a new ATH, I wonder if the halving is already priced in? If that's the case, then market prices will remain relatively the same post-halving. Don't you think?

First we have to look at its new ATH that is not too higher than 2021 ATH and today price is around its ATH in 2021.

Second we have to look at trading volume. Trading volume recent weeks in 2024 is about one third or half of trading volume around days when Bitcoin made 2021 ATH.

I believe price will not have reason to take off quickly after halving but we will gradually see new capital in and new ATHs in 2024.

[adaseb]

It’s hard to say. These bitcoins etfs are difficult to predict how they will affect prices. As soon as they launched, Bitcoin dumped.

It went below the $40K and all of a sudden the flows were positive and they were positive
Until $74K top and then they started to flatten and turn a little negative.

So was the halving priced in? Hard to say. When we hit $40K, I didn’t think we would hit a new ATH either.

[Despairo]

I agree if the priced in is limited to during halving event i.e. April 19-20, 2024, but if you meant for price in the next year too, I have to disagree.

$73K is small IMO, I'm sure Bitcoin won't have any problem to reach $100K, $100K is the smallest speculation in this halving event, I expect it could reach $150K in the next year.

The ETFs volume is keep increasing everyday, even though the adoption isn't as high as last month.


https://www.theblock.co/data/crypto-markets/bitcoin-etf/cumulative-spot-bitcoin-etf-volumes

[NeuroticFish]

Considering that BTC is in a new ATH, I wonder if the halving is already priced in? If that's the case, then market prices will remain relatively the same post-halving. Don't you think?

I'd say it greatly depends on how you look at it.
Technically I think that we can consider halving priced in, but then we trivialize/almost ignore the buying pressure coming from ETFs.
And of course, if we take only ETF into account, then we can say that halving is not priced in.
I'd say the truth is somewhere in the middle and neither halving, not ETF are fully priced in, hence the price will keep rising.
Just don't expect miracles in the halving day. Maybe blatant market manipulation, but that's also uncertain.


PS. This may be more appropriate for speculation, don't you think?

[Odohu]

BTC has been "pumped" massively ever since the spot ETFs were approved in the US a few months ago. The rise has been exponential, making BTC reach a new ATH before the halving. This has never happened before in the history of crypto (AFAIK).

Considering that BTC is in a new ATH, I wonder if the halving is already priced in? If that's the case, then market prices will remain relatively the same post-halving. Don't you think?

Your input would be greatly appreciated. Thank you.

I had a different views from yesterday and backward but after reading through your post, I'm giving it a second thought. What I think will happen is that the halving might not initially trigger big surge in price because most of the gains have already been recorded as a consequence of the ETF approval. But later in the year when the supply of freshly mined Bitcoin will reduce causing scarcity in the market, that will trigger the imbalance in demand/supply, hence the surge in price will become noticeable.

[The Sceptical Chymist]

Oh, that strong sensation of deja vu....I recall several threads speculating about what BTC might do pre/post-halvening, and IIRC members who thought that it was priced in were shot down (or at least there wasn't much support for that theory).

I happen to think all of the halvings are priced in, and that's if there's anything to price in at all.  There's no reason why bitcoin should do anything when the block reward gets chopped in half, right?  Just because the miners need a higher price to keep them in the black doesn't provide an impetus for anything at all to happen to the market.

And I remember writing a few times that no matter what my opinion is, bitcoin could rise based on people speculating that the halving is going to boost the price, and I think that's happened.  Ah, I don't know.  I'm just going to watch like I always do and root for $100k--but I'm hoping it gets there gradually, not in a massive 2017 spike.

[sunsilk]

BTC has been "pumped" massively ever since the spot ETFs were approved in the US a few months ago. The rise has been exponential, making BTC reach a new ATH before the halving. This has never happened before in the history of crypto (AFAIK).

Considering that BTC is in a new ATH, I wonder if the halving is already priced in? If that's the case, then market prices will remain relatively the same post-halving. Don't you think?

Your input would be greatly appreciated. Thank you.

They say that there will be a bigger correction that's about to come. So, if those speculations you will give it to them then it's not yet priced in and there will be a lesser price before or after the halving comes.

But what's even with that?

The price of BTC regardless of being priced in this halving or if there will be a greater correction, the ones that have been holding for so long will never get affected or worried with this.

[fuguebtc]

It’s hard to say. These bitcoins etfs are difficult to predict how they will affect prices. As soon as they launched, Bitcoin dumped.

It went below the $40K and all of a sudden the flows were positive and they were positive
Until $74K top and then they started to flatten and turn a little negative.

So was the halving priced in? Hard to say. When we hit $40K, I didn’t think we would hit a new ATH either.

Yes, it is difficult to predict what bitcoin will do after the halving, it could be dumped the same way market makers did when the ETF was approved . I remember when the news that the ETF was approved by the SEC was released, everyone was excited and waiting for a crazy price rally with that news. But suddenly bitcoin was dumped and people became disappointed, and while everyone was disappointed bitcoin suddenly pumped up. I believe that scenario will be used again as the halving approaches , but in the long term, I am still waiting for a big bull season later this year and into 2025 .

[Ultegra134]

It’s hard to say. These bitcoins etfs are difficult to predict how they will affect prices. As soon as they launched, Bitcoin dumped.

It went below the $40K and all of a sudden the flows were positive and they were positive
Until $74K top and then they started to flatten and turn a little negative.

So was the halving priced in? Hard to say. When we hit $40K, I didn’t think we would hit a new ATH either.

Bitcoin did dump immediately after the ETF approval, but massively climbed up just two weeks later. No other event could have caused such a price increase on such short notice. Actually, Nasdaq.com explains perfectly why this phenomenon occurred. According to Nasdaq, this phenomenon (Bitcoin's crash after ETF approval) is caused by "selling the news, which is the act of profit-taking by shareholders after a good news break.

Quoting the rest of the paragraph for reference:

This counterintuitive phenomenon is caused by “selling the news,” or the act of profit-taking by shareholders after good news breaks. Active investors might opt to take the short-term profits of good news instead of holding on for future gains. It’s not an act that’s inherently harmful when done by an individual, but a large group of traders selling their shares at once can easily influence prices. Active investors might opt to take the short-term profits of good news instead of holding on for future gains. It’s not an act that’s inherently harmful when done by an individual, but a large group of traders selling their shares at once can easily influence prices.

And when a group of sellers is larger than the group of potential investors, the flood of shares back into the market can cause a shift in supply and demand that drives share prices lower as a result.

As thecodebear already mentioned, Bitcoin has surpassed the previous ATH, but it's still at the previous ATH levels. With that being said, from how I see things, Bitcoin's halving effect hasn't taken place yet, as we've seen massive differences in ATH after the each cycle, and what we're seeing are the results of the ETF approval and pre-halving anticipating effects that are driving up the price.

[pooya87]

This has never happened before in the history of crypto (AFAIK).

Yeah, ever since COVID recession, the cycles in Bitcoin world has been broken and market is not acting the way we are used to. So we see "new" things ever day like the last cycle (the one between this one and the 2017 bubble) was cut short abruptly and we never actually had a true ATH/bubble like all the cycles.

Considering that BTC is in a new ATH, I wonder if the halving is already priced in? If that's the case, then market prices will remain relatively the same post-halving. Don't you think?

Halving rises have always had 2 phases:
1. The pre-halving rally
This is a rather quick and small rise mostly based on hype where market participants emotionally keep buying bitcoin knowing the price goes up. It always ends as we get close to the halving date (usually ~1-2 weeks till halving IIRC). Then there is a correction.
So far things look like before. A big "emotional" rise followed by a correction.

2. The post-halving rally
This is the actual rise which is a lot bigger and it happens because the supply creation rate is actually cut by half (50% reduction) by then and its effects show up in the market and on the price. This starts slower and continues speeding up until we see that big bubble at the end (assuming the same cycle-type thing happens this time).


Considering that we are about 2 weeks away from halving and price doesn't seem to like to rise anymore we can say that the  first phase is priced in.

[DeathAngel]

People have said this every cycle & it’s always been proven that the halving is not priced in. Expect more aths in 2024 & 2025. I don’t make the rules, this is how Bitcoin works.

[tiCeR]

Oh, that strong sensation of deja vu....I recall several threads speculating about what BTC might do pre/post-halvening, and IIRC members who thought that it was priced in were shot down (or at least there wasn't much support for that theory).

I happen to think all of the halvings are priced in, and that's if there's anything to price in at all.  There's no reason why bitcoin should do anything when the block reward gets chopped in half, right?  Just because the miners need a higher price to keep them in the black doesn't provide an impetus for anything at all to happen to the market.

And I remember writing a few times that no matter what my opinion is, bitcoin could rise based on people speculating that the halving is going to boost the price, and I think that's happened.  Ah, I don't know.  I'm just going to watch like I always do and root for $100k--but I'm hoping it gets there gradually, not in a massive 2017 spike.

This probably describes best what's going on. Coming up with a technical explanation for the BTC price to rise or not around the halving isn't very helpful on an individual basis. It still remains pure speculation, but the psychological tendency of the majority of people is probably the assumption that the price still rises. The perceived increased scarcity when the block reward drops is likely to have a bigger impact on the price than the idea that the scarcity concept is already priced in and people may take profits around the halving.

It is the same with expected and actual inflation and how expected inflation drives actual inflation. It often needs time and only via a moving average can realistic conclusions be drawn where people really thought the inflation rate would end up being.

BTC's price could be overpriced, or underpriced, but the interesting thing about expectations in the BTC network is that halvings are hard-coded. Inflation isn't hard-coded and can depend on a million of things, like a pandemic, logistic problems, war, trade wars, climate, etc. One could assume that expectations could be priced in easier for the BTC network since increased scarcity isn't the result of unexpected events, and yet it is a hard nut to crack.

I believe it is more about a narrative when it comes to halvings. They have manifested themselves as being BTC price booster, but technically they shouldn't be as everyone can look up the schedule and then make up their minds about a potential future price tag. The truth is that BTC reflects far, far, far more of the complex world than just a pre-defined halving schedule / programmed emission curve / scarcity. But the halving schedule is the easiest to understand of all the things that BTC interacts with. It's something people can easily follow via a countdown. However, complex developments like geopolitical tensions or aspects from political economy aren't something that many people can reasonably evaluate. That's why I think these halvings, despite being perfectly predictable, can still set free some of the known herding behavior.

[Rabbitqt]

BTC has been "pumped" massively ever since the spot ETFs were approved in the US a few months ago. The rise has been exponential, making BTC reach a new ATH before the halving. This has never happened before in the history of crypto (AFAIK).

Considering that BTC is in a new ATH, I wonder if the halving is already priced in? If that's the case, then market prices will remain relatively the same post-halving. Don't you think?

Your input would be greatly appreciated. Thank you.

Yes, this is the only model you need to see the proof:

https://planbtc.com/s2fchart.png

[Cryptoprincess101]

The halving is not priced yet because basically, the price is just within the range of the previous ATH so we should be expecting some post halving pumps which will be during the bull market because since the price reached a new ATH before the halving it is expected to create another ATH that will take over the $73k it is now and it can be achieved during the bull run

[btc78]

Of course the best we could do is speculate.

No one will know for sure how will the market move or which way it will go however there is a huge chance that it corrects post-halving before it pumps. Now that we are in the month of april, expectations run high. All we have to do now is to plan the best way we can and always expect the unexpected.

[348Judah]

BTC has been "pumped" massively ever since the spot ETFs were approved in the US a few months ago. The rise has been exponential, making BTC reach a new ATH before the halving. This has never happened before in the history of crypto (AFAIK).

Considering that BTC is in a new ATH, I wonder if the halving is already priced in? If that's the case, then market prices will remain relatively the same post-halving. Don't you think?

we cannot completely assume for what is likely to be the outcome of this halving this month if the market will rise more immediately or go bearish then later continue to pump, we can recall on the way or pattern we had with the approval of bitcoin ETF in the beginning of this year, we realized a bear market and later everything begin to change all of a sudden, this year halving may also come in with such patter whereby the market may fall after the halving only to find an avenue of rising beyond targets to new all-time high, but let's keep speculating and expecting on what may come in before and after the halving.