Don't be confused, bitcoin halving doesn't translate into bitcoin All time high

[Odusko]

Recently, there have been alot of discussions around bitcoin halving and what the expectations will be as regards to the value of bitcoin, and is no longer News that bitcoin reached the blockseize for halving cycle over the last 24 hours, and significantly speaking there have not been any sign of bitcoin price increase which is not expected anytime soon.
Main purpose for this thread is to set the record straight for newbies
Never get is twisted bitcoin halving is not an auto mode for bitcoin price increase and no one should expect anything out of the ordinary for bitcoin just because the network just recorded it new blockseize rewards, although bitcoin halving have always been speculated to birth new all time high, but it is not 100% certain that we must achieve such ATH each time there is a halving cycle, at least reading through history have proven that already.
My advice
Don't buy bitcoin because you assume that bitcoin price will skyrocket after bitcoin halving, that is a wrong mentality that could lead to depressing results if that failed to happen.

[1714749746]

1714749746

[Darker45]

What history are you talking about? Bitcoin's block reward has been halved four times so far. Each time, there's an ATH that follows. It isn't instant. I mean, it doesn't immediately follow the halving date. The impact of the decrease in the new supply will take time before it finally affects the price fully. So far, it takes at least a year from the halving for an ATH to be reached. The halving had just taken place. So there's no history to prove that an ATH after the halving is a false hope or a wrong expectation. I'm still convinced that there's going to be a new ATH more or less a year from now. But of course it is wrong to assume that since it happened in the past it will happen again in the future.

[hugeblack]

Current fees are so high that the effect of halving has not yet appeared. In the last 200 blocks, the average subsidy + fees per block was about 4-6 bitcoins, while in the past it was 7-8 bitcoins.

I think we need to wait until mempool dump and fees decreases to start saying that Bitcoin halving has started and then we have to wait several months to see its actual effect.

[Amphenomenon]

Current fees are so high that the effect of halving has not yet appeared. In the last 200 blocks, the average subsidy + fees per block was about 4-6 bitcoins, while in the past it was 7-8 bitcoins.

I think we need to wait until mempool dump and fees decreases to start saying that Bitcoin halving has started and then we have to wait several months to see its actual effect.

Aside this fact this year halving is different from the previous halving since it a new ATH even before the halving and normally we do expect a bear before the bull but it was a different case because the bull this year is really too strong, since people sentiment is still positive.

Though I will advise leverage traders to avoid this since the market probably can go side ways and we heard news about how much was liquidated during the recent dip

[Porfirii]

Current fees are so high that the effect of halving has not yet appeared. In the last 200 blocks, the average subsidy + fees per block was about 4-6 bitcoins, while in the past it was 7-8 bitcoins.

I think we need to wait until mempool dump and fees decreases to start saying that Bitcoin halving has started and then we have to wait several months to see its actual effect.

Aside this fact this year halving is different from the previous halving since it a new ATH even before the halving and normally we do expect a bear before the bull but it was a different case because the bull this year is really too strong, since people sentiment is still positive.

Though I will advise leverage traders to avoid this since the market probably can go side ways and we heard news about how much was liquidated during the recent dip

Some "experts" say that, since the bull is really strong this year as you said, we should discount a part of the increase. Let's don't forget that big funds like BlackRock have been buying for several months many more Bitcoins that those which were mined, with the positive pressure in the price that it means, probably higher than halving's.

[BlackBoss_]

Don't buy bitcoin because you assume that bitcoin price will skyrocket after bitcoin halving, that is a wrong mentality that could lead to depressing results if that failed to happen.

Skyrocket after the halving is unrealistic but grow up gradually after the halving is realistic thinking.

It's good if any person buys bitcoin with own money before a halving and holds it to get profit for some time like several months after the halving. I consider it is a very good investment strategy and the vital point is invest with own money.

If investment is from loan, it is no longer good.
If buying bitcoin and using it with leverages for margin tradings, futures tradings, it is no longer good.

[lovesmayfamilis]

It would be very naive to think that immediately after the halving, the growth of Bitcoin will reach new records, and I would like to believe that newcomers understand this. But I think it’s also wrong to dissuade people from buying. We cannot predict what will happen to the price; however, most have positive expectations for Bitcoin prices to rise, and if we talk about people coming with investments in Bitcoin at this time, they need to remove the illusion of getting rich quickly for at least a year or two.

[Learn Bitcoin]

I think we need to wait until mempool dump and fees decreases to start saying that Bitcoin halving has started and then we have to wait several months to see its actual effect.

If I remember correctly, the fee after the halving block was around 1200 sat/vb and I don't think I have ever seen fees like that. Compared to that time, the fees getting reduced again and the current fee is around 120 sat/vb. I hope that will go down to the 20 sat/vb in the coming weeks. What I didn't get is, why the fees have been increased even though the number of transactions wasn't like the lat time.

I remember seeing 500K transactions on the mempool and yet we paid 100 sat/vb. But during the halving block time, there were around 225K transactions, and yet the fee was over 1000 sat/vb. We have 222K pending transactions right now and the current fee is 120 sat/vb. I always thoughts the fee increase with the number of pending transactions and how much someone pays for the transactions. I guess it's because all the new transactions was coming with high fees. No?

[The Sceptical Chymist]

What history are you talking about? Bitcoin's block reward has been halved four times so far. Each time, there's an ATH that follows.

Let me ask you a question (or a question to anyone here):  what's the reason for the price increase after a halving?  Why do people think another ATH, a bull run, or just a boost in price is guaranteed after a halving?  I really want to know, because there's nothing I can see that would basically give everyone free money just for investing in bitcoin before one.  That sounds insane to me.

[Majestic-milf]

It would be very naive to think that immediately after the halving, the growth of Bitcoin will reach new records, and I would like to believe that newcomers understand this.

Well you'd be surprised to note that some or most have a misguided understanding about the halving process especially as there has been much talk about how there will be a big bump during the event. Many of them will use this medium to purchase as much as they can so they'd benefit hugely but with how it's price is shaky, are more disappointed than the next person.

But I think it’s also wrong to dissuade people from buying. We cannot predict what will happen to the price; however, most have positive expectations for Bitcoin prices to rise, and if we talk about people coming with investments in Bitcoin at this time, they need to remove the illusion of getting rich quickly for at least a year or two.

It looks easier said than done. I don't think anyone wants to be dissuaded, it's just that some may feel inclined to wait for a positive movement in price rather than take advantage of the  unsteadiness now. I'm more optimistic that things will look up for Bitcoin now more than ever.

[Despairo]

Let me ask you a question (or a question to anyone here):  what's the reason for the price increase after a halving?  Why do people think another ATH, a bull run, or just a boost in price is guaranteed after a halving?  I really want to know, because there's nothing I can see that would basically give everyone free money just for investing in bitcoin before one.  That sounds insane to me.

Hashrate and difficulty increase > making miners harder to mine Bitcoin > the price to mine Bitcoin rise > Bitcoin price increase.

Another reason, halving event happen every four years, so it makes people will discuss about Bitcoin and people might buy Bitcoin > Bitcoin price increase.

Yeah there are no free money after halving, it just many people are too naive, just like people who say Bitcoin price increase due to Elon Musk tweeting Bitcoin logo.

[Text]

Past Bitcoin halving events have indeed been associated with price increases, but they should also know that this doesn't happen immediately because there's a process to go through, such as adjustment, and of course, it's not a guaranteed outcome. The relationship between halving and price is complex and influenced by various factors beyond just the reduction in block rewards. Because if these newcomers expect an automatic price surge right away, it will only lead to disappointment if it's not met. If they have a short-term perspective, they should study trading if they want to do it daily. But if they're focusing on investment, they should go for the long-term.

[Odusko]

What history are you talking about? Bitcoin's block reward has been halved four times so far. Each time, there's an ATH that follows. It isn't instant. I mean, it doesn't immediately follow the halving date. The impact of the decrease in the new supply will take time before it finally affects the price fully. So far, it takes at least a year from the halving for an ATH to be reached. The halving had just taken place. So there's no history to prove that an ATH after the halving is a false hope or a wrong expectation. I'm still convinced that there's going to be a new ATH more or less a year from now. But of course it is wrong to assume that since it happened in the past it will happen again in the future.

I am very well convinced also that we are going to see a new all time high after each halving,, at least at some point in the future, but many others have failed in the timing for expectations of that ATH after halving, because I have read Al t of comments that sounds as if  bitcoin halving is an automatic trigger to a new bitcoin price run up, which assumptions I am trying to clear off in this thread.
Before bitcoin record a new all time high after halving, takes time at least things needed to settle in such as network congestion, increased fees and the general market conditions,all this take time and for sure we need patience to wait and not to be in a rush to see that happening outrightly as many assume.

[Kelward]

It's only newbies without experience or who haven't researched on how halving works will assume that after halving, price will begin to surge and we'll see an instant ATH. This is my first halving, but I've been here for quite a while to know that from other halving experiences that we should be looking at the seeing a new ATH in approximately one year's time. Although anything is possible because from the experience of previous halvings, ATH happens after them, but we saw a new ATH before the present halving, and I won't rule any possibilities out about seeing the peak of bull run in this year.

[Sim_card]

From history, the halving only trigger the bull run, due to limited supply, and it is not done immediately. It takes few months before we can start seeing the rise in price of bitcoin and a year for bitcoin price to hit a new ATH, but it might not take up to a year in this circle before bitcoin hits a new ATH, because this circle is different from other, due to ETF approval. However, anyone investing should hope not for quick profit but rather invest in a long term so that you don't need to worry about the price of bitcoin.

[LogitechMouse]

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My advice
Don't buy bitcoin because you assume that bitcoin price will skyrocket after bitcoin halving, that is a wrong mentality that could lead to depressing results if that failed to happen.

Basing on the history of Bitcoin's price after the halving event, it's price has increased or at least doubled.

I don't know what's your point with your advice but if you will look at the price history of Bitcoin in the past halving events, the price of it increases. I mean it isn't instant, but in 12-18 months, it has increased significantly. I don't know why you are advising it to newbies where in fact, they can just buy Bitcoin, and just sell at the peak of the bull market. History shows that the bull market is happening months after the halving event.

It might be a wrong mentality but TBH, it works especially for those who don't want to hold Bitcoin for a very long time. Depressing results? Nah, I don't think so as long as you don't buy at the peak or near it's peak. What's more depressing is that, you bought at the bottom and you decided not to sell it at the peak for some stupid reasons (like what I did on 2021 ).

[boyptc]

My advice
Don't buy bitcoin because you assume that bitcoin price will skyrocket after bitcoin halving, that is a wrong mentality that could lead to depressing results if that failed to happen.

Seriously, everyone is buying because of the anticipation that after the halving the price of Bitcoin is going to skyrocket.

There's nothing wrong with that. But it takes time and now we're done with the halving, everyone is on the waiting game.

[cryptoaddictchie]

Don't buy bitcoin because you assume that bitcoin price will skyrocket after bitcoin halving, that is a wrong mentality that could lead to depressing results if that failed to happen.

Well it depends on ones belief. Not because its quite high now doesnt mean it would go to a higher position. Would you blame too those who bought now and seen bitcoin at higher price? Its always good to buy back on a lower range but what if it doesnt go down that much still a guy believes it would be much higher later on? I really doubt to see bitcoin on lower grounds anytime sooner but a more of vice versa assumption too that it will move and have a price discovery.

[khalidkhan82118]

Recently, there have been alot of discussions around bitcoin halving and what the expectations will be as regards to the value of bitcoin, and is no longer News that bitcoin reached the blockseize for halving cycle over the last 24 hours, and significantly speaking there have not been any sign of bitcoin price increase which is not expected anytime soon.
Main purpose for this thread is to set the record straight for newbies
Never get is twisted bitcoin halving is not an auto mode for bitcoin price increase and no one should expect anything out of the ordinary for bitcoin just because the network just recorded it new blockseize rewards, although bitcoin halving have always been speculated to birth new all time high, but it is not 100% certain that we must achieve such ATH each time there is a halving cycle, at least reading through history have proven that already.
My advice
Don't buy bitcoin because you assume that bitcoin price will skyrocket after bitcoin halving, that is a wrong mentality that could lead to depressing results if that failed to happen.

Interesting perspective! It's crucial to manage expectations when it comes to events like Bitcoin halving. I'm curious, though: what other factors might influence Bitcoin's value aside from halving cycles? And how can newcomers navigate the market with realistic expectations?

[Ojima-ojo]

Offcourse we all have to build that long term mindset towards bitcoin if we don't want to lose because when you have a speculative mindset towards bitcoin and you give it a short term base it will always results into building negative mindset around you towards bitcoin.


I have not experienced bitcoin halving before but note that only mining rewards alone is not enough to push the value higher at a very short term, this is the reason we give five to six years bitcoin goals that way you can be sure to have experience at least one bitcoin halving cycle to understand how the effects works on bitcoin price.