Sports betting - How to determine if the line is a trap?

[ralle14]

I'm doing something similar, I usually check the opening and current odds to see if there's any line movement, then look up which side the public is on because you sometimes see a lot of bets going through on one side and there's still no movement.

The Dallas/Celtics market that Japinat mentioned is a good example, I remember checking one of the betting bots in our group and it said around 80% of bets are placed on Dallas, but the spread isn't going down anytime soon.

Tell me if I'm overthinking, if I'm wrong about this, or if this really is the key to winning.

It goes both ways, regardless of the line looking like a trap you could be missing out on an easy win.  Sometimes, we think that getting the best line should translate to a free win, but we forget that it's always easy for a team to crumble on a good day and ruin your bet at the end.

[OgNasty]

Whenever I’m sports betting and the line looks off to me I usually start researching why that is. Most of the time it’s a star player out with an illness or family emergency, etc. I’ve been guilty in the past of just taking the bet and thinking I got a deal only to find out later that I didn’t know something. So if something looks off, find out why.

[bittraffic]

Damn! that's a slick skill you have there. 
So you mean you are just Jonah Hill in the Money Ball movie who looks at the stats and determines skills and which team?

I bet on some upsets as well, didn't turn out well for me. I have some kind of comparison to some players but depends on which sports we are up to.

I guess you're right, my first thought about this was Rain Man but it seems apt that it's Money Ball. I mean there's probably a consistency in terms of how some players do their thing, you can track them really easy and if you've got the time to analyze a lot of factors, you can easily do it, what I mean by many factors is that you need to consider also how players do during a certain time in the game, the way they synergize with other players is also a big factor, there's so many that it will hurt your brain if you're not good at it.

You'd be a great bettor when you see some skills that are overlooked at some point and when deployed correctly you can see the game can overturn. Sadly as just as gamblers we have zero chance to decide which players can play in the first quarter to the last. The only we can bet on is team vs team. But this kind of skill must be useful in analyzing Boxing or MMA, maybe you can even predict how the fight will play out or which round the fight will end.

[$crypto$]

I rarely gamble on sports by determining teams that often spread points, I prefer to bet on sports by determining the score or the player who scores the most goals.

That's what I do in sports betting, looking at the H2H stats if the previous few games they often scored against each other then it's better to bet both teams score, this allows us to win the bet.
Although there are other betting options with handicaps.

The line betting method is too complicated for me, maybe if you are good at sports betting, maybe it's good enough for you to do it, maybe the quote above can provide a little winning point for line betting by judging.

I don't really understand line betting, it's something I haven't covered before, yes I just bet in general but with that always look for odds above @1.50.

[freedomgo]

Lately, I've been using a simple strategy in sports betting by spotting lines that are overvalued or undervalued, which could easily attract public bets.

Isn't this the same as contrarian Indicators where your bets are against the public?

Sort of, but not totally a full fade the public strategy as sometimes the public bets win.
In betting, I don't need to bet on all available games on the board, I just select a game that is more popular than the other as that will attract a lot of bets, and that way, and most importantly, if the line is quite suspicious that it would easily attract public bets, I would go on the other side.

I'm not saying that this strategy work all the time, it doesn't work in gambling, right? What I observe with this is that it work most of the time, and that's  all I need, and together with a good bankroll management, I guess I will be profitable in the long run. 

Based on my record, I've had some success using this strategy. I realize that looking at stats alone to determine which team is better will not work. As gamblers, we have to do what others are not doing. A typical gambler will just look at the stats to determine the better team; they don't complicate things or consider other factors, which sometimes leads them to fall into traps.

It's good that you have records on this strategy and that you can conclude that it works. So if anyone is looking for something new to try out, they can just use this as evidence. And truly, a gambler has to do what others aren't willing to do, it will require thorough research and it takes a lot of time that's why I think most of us just look at the stats and then place our bets.

Record is necessary if we like to be updated with our performance, and this record should be free from bias, that we will right the correct result and compute the real percentage of winning. As long as I'm at 55%, I think that's already a great percent to maintain.

So, guys, this is just my personal observation. Tell me if I'm overthinking, if I'm wrong about this, or if this really is the key to winning.

This doesn't look like over thinking to me. How can you be wrong about it when you have your records. What I will added is that one must be flexible about this too. If there research turns out to be that spotting overvalued or undervalued lines may not work, then they should place their bets based off on what works which is their findings.

I feel a bit of that since I'm still new to this, I think I need more time to really determine if the strategy is working, if not then I'm just overthinking. LOL

[dimonstration]

Whenever I’m sports betting and the line looks off to me I usually start researching why that is. Most of the time it’s a star player out with an illness or family emergency, etc. I’ve been guilty in the past of just taking the bet and thinking I got a deal only to find out later that I didn’t know something. So if something looks off, find out why.

I’m a victim of this many time when betting prematch in advance. Casino suddenly increased/decreased odds on the day match begins. This happened frequently on NBA since some team delay the announcement of injury report because they are maximizing time to check before the player can still play or not.

But this kind of betting offer is not a trap imho. It’s just look like a trap if a bettor is like us that is lazy to check and just looking on the odds offer by the sportsbook.

We are lucky that cashout was already introduced now because in old days, bet hedging is the only option.

[Questat]

Whenever I’m sports betting and the line looks off to me I usually start researching why that is. Most of the time it’s a star player out with an illness or family emergency, etc. I’ve been guilty in the past of just taking the bet and thinking I got a deal only to find out later that I didn’t know something. So if something looks off, find out why.

I’m a victim of this many time when betting prematch in advance. Casino suddenly increased/decreased odds on the day match begins. This happened frequently on NBA since some team delay the announcement of injury report because they are maximizing time to check before the player can still play or not.

To prevent ourselves on making mistake, we should not bet early, wait maybe 15 minutes before the game as the line will not likely move anymore. Research on the injury reports or rumors is easy nowadays, but we have to confirm it before placing a bet.

But this kind of betting offer is not a trap imho. It’s just look like a trap if a bettor is like us that is lazy to check and just looking on the odds offer by the sportsbook.

We are lucky that cashout was already introduced now because in old days, bet hedging is the only option.

Definitely it's a trap for those who are aggressive in betting without even investigating while the line looks unsual. And honestly, that cashout thing in a casino is not too useful for me, because even if the line does look like it's not gonna hit, it also does not guarantee that we will win, so cashing out with a loss is already a loss.

[Russlenat]

Definitely it's a trap for those who are aggressive in betting without even investigating while the line looks unsual. And honestly, that cashout thing in a casino is not too useful for me, because even if the line does look like it's not gonna hit, it also does not guarantee that we will win, so cashing out with a loss is already a loss.

It doesn't matter if your bet wins or loses, but if you're not confident with your bet, you can use the cashout option from the sportsbook to minimize your loss. Sometimes we make mistakes, and rather than losing it all, it's better to minimize the loss. If we don't cash out, we end up relying on luck instead of our skills in analyzing the game. Even if we win, it doesn't fully satisfy us because only winning through careful analysis is truly gratifying for bettors.

Who agrees with me?

[Questat]

Definitely it's a trap for those who are aggressive in betting without even investigating while the line looks unsual. And honestly, that cashout thing in a casino is not too useful for me, because even if the line does look like it's not gonna hit, it also does not guarantee that we will win, so cashing out with a loss is already a loss.

It doesn't matter if your bet wins or loses, but if you're not confident with your bet, you can use the cashout option from the sportsbook to minimize your loss. Sometimes we make mistakes, and rather than losing it all, it's better to minimize the loss. If we don't cash out, we end up relying on luck instead of our skills in analyzing the game. Even if we win, it doesn't fully satisfy us because only winning through careful analysis is truly gratifying for bettors.

Who agrees with me?

That's another option, and it depends on the gambler's perspective. But for me, I prefer not to put much emotion into my betting and focus on playing with the numbers, if you know what I mean. Mistakes like this don't happen all the time, so it's sometimes okay to let it go and see if it results in a win. At the end of the day, if we want to make betting a long-term activity, we should learn how to manage our bankroll effectively and treat it as important funds that need to last.

[Japinat]

Say we have 2 teams in the NBA finals.

The current betting line now or point spread is

Dallas +6.5
Celtics -6.5

IMO, if I look at that line, that +6.5 might be a trap as it could easily attract public bets since Dallas are hot right now after they defeated the Wolves in a 4-1 series score. So in order for me to not fall into that trap, I might just bet on the other side which is the Celtics -6.5. However, as I was saying, I can only conclude if its a trap after the game is over.

Indeed, it was a trap. It looked like everyone was backing Dallas to cover the handicap, but it resulted in an easy dominant win by the Celtics. Game 2 could be different, though, as I don't see Dallas getting dominated again. Just like I've seen in the past, it's good to back a team that lost by a huge margin in the previous game, as they'll likely bounce back or at least make it a close game and cover the handicap.

[Dr.Bitcoin_Strange]

Sports betting is cool and one of my favorites, although winning your bet is still based on luck. If you apply a certain strategy, you will definitely not lose completely all the time but will regularly win your bet most of the time. We know that there is no way someone can keep winning in gambling every day and every time, but if you have some good sports knowledge and derive some strategies, you will be lucky more regularly than someone who doesn't even have good knowledge about sports. 

[wheelz1200]

Lately, I've been using a simple strategy in sports betting by spotting lines that are overvalued or undervalued, which could easily attract public bets. Based on my record, I've had some success using this strategy. I realize that looking at stats alone to determine which team is better will not work. As gamblers, we have to do what others are not doing. A typical gambler will just look at the stats to determine the better team; they don't complicate things or consider other factors, which sometimes leads them to fall into traps.

By looking at the line, you can already tell if there's something wrong with it, and you'll choose to be on the right side even if your heart says otherwise. So, guys, this is just my personal observation. Tell me if I'm overthinking, if I'm wrong about this, or if this really is the key to winning.

The way I handle this is by setting my own lines in my head before I look.  Usually it's in and around that and can spot my own personal value.  If the lines are way off +/- a certain percentage then I stay away from that game.  Likely there is something going on I'm not aware about that will alter the game.  That's how I deal with trap betting

[boltz]

I actually make my own odds based on h2h games , players , current standings and coach experience and after that I place a bet. Usually in this way you can catch higher odds and you will find yourself picking 5+odds instead of going for a "save" 1.23 odds. However , this won't work anytime because bookies know well how to make odds but there are traps in almost every sports category and you can find traps daily if you have the time to search for them.

[Zigabel]

Lately, I've been using a simple strategy in sports betting by spotting lines that are overvalued or undervalued, which could easily attract public bets. Based on my record, I've had some success using this strategy. I realize that looking at stats alone to determine which team is better will not work. As gamblers, we have to do what others are not doing. A typical gambler will just look at the stats to determine the better team; they don't complicate things or consider other factors, which sometimes leads them to fall into traps.

By looking at the line, you can already tell if there's something wrong with it, and you'll choose to be on the right side even if your heart says otherwise. So, guys, this is just my personal observation. Tell me if I'm overthinking, if I'm wrong about this, or if this really is the key to winning.

Some of these statistics especially those given by the casinos are sometimes traps because they will give you the information that will make you believe it's actually okey picking a particular team as the winners and foolish picking another as the losers and this is usually reflected in the statistics provided by these casinos, most times it's just okay to even go against the Information provided and just maybe you could turn out lucky with the results you will get at the end of the games.

You are quite rational with your taughts and I don't see it as overthinking, this is what happens almost everyday at the casinos and it takes only a very careful mind to get to see the logic and understand what is going on behind the statistics they are been provide with as at the time the statistics was added and they are about to make a prediction.

[freedomgo]

Lately, I've been using a simple strategy in sports betting by spotting lines that are overvalued or undervalued, which could easily attract public bets. Based on my record, I've had some success using this strategy. I realize that looking at stats alone to determine which team is better will not work. As gamblers, we have to do what others are not doing. A typical gambler will just look at the stats to determine the better team; they don't complicate things or consider other factors, which sometimes leads them to fall into traps.

By looking at the line, you can already tell if there's something wrong with it, and you'll choose to be on the right side even if your heart says otherwise. So, guys, this is just my personal observation. Tell me if I'm overthinking, if I'm wrong about this, or if this really is the key to winning.

The way I handle this is by setting my own lines in my head before I look.  Usually it's in and around that and can spot my own personal value.  If the lines are way off +/- a certain percentage then I stay away from that game.  Likely there is something going on I'm not aware about that will alter the game.  That's how I deal with trap betting

That's a good strategy too. You don't force yourself to bet on a game that you're not confident in. My main goal is to determine the most popular game on the board and evaluate if the line is correct according to my judgment. If I see one side is off, I'll usually bet on the correct side. Of course, it does not give me a right bet all the time, but most of the time is fine, and with that, I should not frustrate myself. I deal with it using the right bankroll management.

I'd really like to emphasize how we should stay disciplined in managing our bankroll because if not, it would leave us frustrated during a losing streak, which could result in wiping out the entire balance. We don't want to experience that, so we need to take it slow and be consistent.

[alegotardo]

Lately, I've been using a simple strategy in sports betting by spotting lines that are overvalued or undervalued, which could easily attract public bets. Based on my record, I've had some success using this strategy. I realize that looking at stats alone to determine which team is better will not work. As gamblers, we have to do what others are not doing. A typical gambler will just look at the stats to determine the better team; they don't complicate things or consider other factors, which sometimes leads them to fall into traps.

By looking at the line, you can already tell if there's something wrong with it, and you'll choose to be on the right side even if your heart says otherwise. So, guys, this is just my personal observation. Tell me if I'm overthinking, if I'm wrong about this, or if this really is the key to winning.

This is an interesting and very profitable strategy, but very risky.
We know that sports betting pays very little, but the reason for this is justified by the fact that they are "quite predictable" compared to gambling in general, as a consequence, the houses reduce the reward for the one who statistically should win, and for " make the situation worse" we have many players who also bet mainly in favor of these statistics, and if on the other side of the bet there are few players betting on the unlikely, then the reward for the vast majority who bet on the statistics will in fact be small.

But, a smart or lucky bet on the "wrong side" will consequently yield a very generous prize. The problem is knowing how to identify these scenarios and bet at the right time.

[Darker45]

This is more or less like gut feeling? Or perhaps you're already familiar with the games, the teams, the players, and their plays that you'd be confused how certain betting lines turn out that way? I also have this confusion sometimes. But rather than interpreting the odds as overvalued or undervalued, I'd try to understand why because, for me, there must be a reason.

I don't know with others but I also have this tendency to guess the odds in certain matches. Sometimes, I'm surprised how my own predictions are too far from the odds released in the market. But I don't insist with my own analysis. More often, I just wonder what I missed. I don't conclude right away that these or those lines are overvalued or undervalued.

[Mrbluntzy]

By looking at the line, you can already tell if there's something wrong with it, and you'll choose to be on the right side even if your heart says otherwise. So, guys, this is just my personal observation. Tell me if I'm overthinking, if I'm wrong about this, or if this really is the key to winning.

What matters is how long you have been using the strategy and how often you had success with the strategy, you already said that you have recorded many success with the strategy and other gamblers that have not used the strategy can not really tell more about it, like me, I don't know about it but I know that there are more than two strategy in sport betting. I even guess that every sport gambler has their strategy that is giving them success and some of those strategy are not also working.

[Questat]

By looking at the line, you can already tell if there's something wrong with it, and you'll choose to be on the right side even if your heart says otherwise. So, guys, this is just my personal observation. Tell me if I'm overthinking, if I'm wrong about this, or if this really is the key to winning.

What matters is how long you have been using the strategy and how often you had success with the strategy, you already said that you have recorded many success with the strategy and other gamblers that have not used the strategy can not really tell more about it, like me, I don't know about it but I know that there are more than two strategy in sport betting. I even guess that every sport gambler has their strategy that is giving them success and some of those strategy are not also working.

If we can't prove that we are profitable in sports betting, then basically what we are doing is just gambling based on luck. Honestly, it's hard to be unrelistic when the record does not prove anything, and in order for that record to be reliable, it should be the result for long term gambling, not only on few months and then conclude that you already found the recipe for success.

[ethereumhunter]

Each gamblers who wants to place a bet will use many ways to find the right teams. You do the right things for you and other people will use their ways to find the teams that have a big chance to wins. That's why every gamblers will still learns many ways and research to finds what method that will works for them to find the right teams. Some people will check the history of each team that will match, but other people will use different methods because they must search for much information about each teams. But what you are doing can not be said the key to winning because analyzing the match will needs other things to finds the right teams and players. Although your way can be one of the key to wins, that does not means that other methods can not be the other key that gives them wins too.