Team strength as the main predictor.

[FatFork]

Of course, the strength of the players is not the only factor to consider when predicting game outcomes.  Upsets do occur.  You can't rely solely upon rankings or statistics from previous seasons.  Momentum swings, injuries, even lucky bounces of the ball impact results and  there's an unpredictable element underlying it all - which is precisely why it falls under the category of gambling rather than pure analytics.

[Marvelockg]

only add few others for the sake of this discussion.

• For a football team, you have to add the home and away factor, match schedules(if they have external competition such as UCL), the weather condition(teams going away to where the weather is different from theirs will be affected by the change of environment), their recent form which comprise of their winning or losing mentality and ease of scoring or conceding. There are some teams that will be in their top scoring form, just like Arsenal was towards the end of last season.
• For individual events such as tennis,  weather condition can also play a part as well as recent form. If the player have been playing in high spirit, that will definitely show in the results. Also if they have busy schedule without enough rest, it will show in their performance

So weather condition, match schedule and recent form are part of the things I need to add to the list you already gave.

so true. Some teams when they have a bigger game to play after the current game would want to relax some of thier key players and wouldn't go into the game with a very high intensity but would prefer to try some of there squared that they haven't used for a long time and that have been on the bench and this can potentially lead to them loosing against a team they would normally win without stress.

For me, what's most important to consider is what the team stands to gain or loose should the match go either ways and then I consider the strength of the team and maybe the players that are on injury. The coach is part of the factor you use in accessing the strength of a team and so there is no point over considering that.

[Woodie]

Looking at what's written in the OP, this suggests that punters will always go for favourites after factoring in all their strengths and what not to get a mathematical advantage...but with experience and a few wins & loses here and there I have developed a dislike for markets such match winner after seeing the smallest of odds fail to go through... And after so many failed attempts over the years, I would prefer to take my chances in other markets such as the corner market, cards, free kick's, number of ace's , 3pts etcetera and my winning chances have gone up which saves me from unnecessary headaches with straight winners .

But it's not a bad strategy to use if using team strengths in predicting winners works for you then don't change the winning formula!

[topbitcoin]

I know that many experienced sports bettors place the greatest importance on the strength of teams (in team sports) or the strength of individual players (in individual sports). They believe that this is what plays a decisive role, and not other factors. For example, the advantage of home games only appears in competition between approximately equal teams. And when teams or players are not equal in strength, then comparing the strength of the teams becomes of primary importance. You may also cite other factors, such as:
1. Coach.
2. Judging.
3. Player injuries.
4. Season of the year.
Some other sport-specific factors. For example, for tennis, the surface on which the game is played matters - artificial or natural.
 The strength of teams or players is usually expressed in rankings.
What do you think: is the strength of teams or players the main factor in the forecast or not? Is ranking the only way to determine the strength of teams? And if these are the main factors, then how can you predict in advance the outcome of a game in which outsiders beat experienced teams?

That's right basically when the whistle blows we won't know how it will turn out until it's over and the ball is round so anyone can get a win in a match.

Analysis is just analysis that results in speculation, we see many factors and elements that can be used as data to see that a team can win a match well, and that is just a prediction and in the meaning of prediction is just an expectation with the style of calculation that we have to judge.
Not a few weak teams can beat strong teams and others in the big leagues and minor leagues and in any sports match, something can happen on the field and something can be an advantage for one of the parties, so the conclusion is that even though we can calculate or analyze the possibility is not necessarily one hundred percent accurately correct and must be emphasized that it is a prediction not a reality.

Is analysis a mistake? Is prediction a mistake? Of course not, it's just an attempt by someone to convince themselves before the game is over.

[Rruchi man]

Is ranking the only way to determine the strength of teams?

Team ranking is based on their previous performance in a just-concluded season or competition; it does not give an accurate prediction of future performance, and sometimes if you judge based on just ranking, you could make a mistake because teams have the potential to drop out of form.

What do you think: is the strength of teams or players the main factor in the forecast or not?

For football games, I consider the squad depth and then the technicality of the coach. A team with very good squad depth and player options will be a very good weapon for any good coach who is technically sound.

[bitzizzix]

And what we have to realize is that to predict the final result of a football match, all prediction and analysis methods cannot guarantee to provide 100% accurate results even for an expert, and it is very unlikely because of the many variables involved in sports.
And even though we have done the best analysis and statistics using our own methods and habits, sometimes it ends up disappointing because something unexpected happens.
And everything can only create opportunities to win and cannot guarantee victory every time, but what we do can increase our knowledge in the field of football or other sports which can help determine the final result when betting. And the involvement of intuition or gut feeling can also help in predicting outcomes that are sometimes correct.

[rahmad2nd]

The strength of a team will always be an indicator in researching a match that will be held, as will its opponents. But in reality, it's not just team strength that's most important. in football, a little complicated in my opinion. For example, when a team is strong in the sense of having a competitive depth of players and is up against a medium team or one level below, we will not necessarily predict that the stronger team will win the battle. There are other variables that we consider in researching and analyzing. Another example, for example based on the H2H meeting of these two teams. which team tends to dominate, or the match always ends in a draw, meaning the final result is mostly a draw.

We can refer to all aspects, especially related to the team's condition, performance and everything related to the match. that's why, for me football is a little complicated. Another example, if you always refer to the strength of the team. Moreover, if you bet with the 1×2 option, it means you are betting with low odds. for me it's not worth it, that's why I always try to look for other options. The point is, I'm a gambler and it's not just his choice to bet on a team. It all depends on what is being presented, as well as which betting option we will choose. After all, we bet expecting the reward of winning regardless of enjoying watching a football match or other type of sport.

[darkangel11]

This is very hard because injuries are one of the most telling factors, but if you look at some FIFA World Cup matches, countries that did very good in previous season sometimes fail in the next one, despite having almost the same roster. Also, I've seen very good teams lose matches in which they were favoured. Often times teams from the top 20 lose against opponents from places above 100.
When it comes to injuries or last performance, you can be sure that other bettors and bookies will know about that and lower the payout based on that. Making scoreboards and keeping tabs on team's performance will not make you win more.

[swogerino]

Most seasoned gamblers of course take into consideration all of that yet in some games we can see the surprise elements happening,for example no matter how hard these guys try or the teams being in a super hot form and much more better than the underdog they play against they sometimes lose this game,everyday we see surprise results in tennis,we also see many times surprise results in basketball and I intentionally took as example these two sports because the odd difference is a huge one and we have seen teams with odds of 1.04-1.10 losing their game,the same in tennis,how many times we have seen favorites losing against super underdogs.

This is what makes the bookies money in the end,when I used to work in a lotto club many years before,in 2005 if I remember well,the Champions League games came one day as predicted and people told to the lotto club owners you lost money,the answer of the owners was epic,we just lost a morning coffee they said.

[alani123]

It's quite often to see great upsets in sports. Olympiakos winning the conference league was also something that upset many teams that were generally considered a serious contender and grater performing teams just overall.

Just like when Greece won the 2004 euro when nobody was even expecting it. Probably grest cosching along with good counter strategies can win a lot in football.

[Assface16678]

Well, I guess you are talking about sports betting, for me when I predict which team or player is going to win then I always look for the statistics of the team or player, so usually I based on the statistics and also in their previous games, and I am more familiar with basketball sports because I also play basketball and always watch basketball league, NBA for example, I am too familiar with NBA teams and players so most likely if theres a match I know where to bet, but of course its not always a win because there are unpredictable factor that could happen inside the game and we cannot predict or control it as it is a live game, but I often win in betting as I do my own analysis and for me the main factor for me is the statistics and history game of a team. Also, I think sports betting is more efficient than other gambling games as it is more practical and more enjoyable to play.

[yahoo62278]

I know that many experienced sports bettors place the greatest importance on the strength of teams (in team sports) or the strength of individual players (in individual sports). They believe that this is what plays a decisive role, and not other factors. For example, the advantage of home games only appears in competition between approximately equal teams. And when teams or players are not equal in strength, then comparing the strength of the teams becomes of primary importance. You may also cite other factors, such as:
1. Coach.
2. Judging.
3. Player injuries.
4. Season of the year.
Some other sport-specific factors. For example, for tennis, the surface on which the game is played matters - artificial or natural.
 The strength of teams or players is usually expressed in rankings.
What do you think: is the strength of teams or players the main factor in the forecast or not? Is ranking the only way to determine the strength of teams? And if these are the main factors, then how can you predict in advance the outcome of a game in which outsiders beat experienced teams?

You kind of grouped it all together as to what to consider when picking your bet. You cannot just rely on 1 thing and have to consider all the facts. The ranking can only be considered when considering the teams they have played to this point. If a team jas only played the bad teams, they will shoot up the rankings fast.

Just look at what you wrote and put it all into your thought process and you'll give yourself the best shot at picking a winner.

[KTChampions]

~
What do you think: is the strength of teams or players the main factor in the forecast or not? Is ranking the only way to determine the strength of teams? And if these are the main factors, then how can you predict in advance the outcome of a game in which outsiders beat experienced teams?

Easy! If the advantage of the favorite over the outsider is small, then I can easily predict that, conditionally, in three games the outsider will win one. If the advantage is very large, then the ratio will be 1 to 10 or higher. Any forecast is probabilistic. Even if you reliably know the probability of heads and tails for a coin, you cannot say for sure what will come up next.

[Sandra_hakeem]

I know that many experienced sports bettors place the greatest importance on the strength of teams (in team sports) or the strength of individual players (in individual sports). They believe that this is what plays a decisive role, and not other factors. For example, the advantage of home games only appears in competition between approximately equal teams.

The team's strength is dependent on their ability to understand the opposition and stay still in the game, without wavering.. The players may be fit and sound. The coach might have a very strategic performance plan to overtake the opponents, but if the players are not coordinated, none of that is possible.
I sometimes try to ignore the coache's formation. What looks more important is their head to head.
Edit:

If a team jas only played the bad teams, they will shoot up the rankings fast.

Oh, that's not true... A team in the relegation zone has played and won against a bigger team several times. Assuming it was a champion league match; wolves against Chelsea, I'd wager against Chelsea to lose.

[Peanutswar]

I do mostly check with the coach and the players because teams are just already built and they are not changing but the players and coach most of the time makes changes due to performance of the team in a particular game. If the coach does not have a good calls to it's player and does not have a strategy seems the problem are with them because players only a follower and executioners of the calls but if the coach is good and the players does not perform well they can now switch so the team will give a gold feedback on the game and also in the tournament if there's any. I do checking the players every new tournament because there's a possible shuffle so I can know if the team will have a good outcome and good to wage or not.

[adultcrypto]

I have actually been wondering what the bookies use in fixing the odds. I guess this topic have explained some better. Sometimes I will see a big team getting big odds only to check their fixtures to see that they have more important match they are reserving players for. This will make them no play their best so the bookies understand this and gave them proportional odds. I have taken time to read through the suggestions given and I think it will help a lot in forecast going forward.

[danherbias07]

First, I do like your questions here in the gambling discussions. It's somehow helpful for others to think about this type of analysis in the game or a fight.

Boxing. Human strength is important there. But let's say Manny Pacquiao had a different coach, not Coach Freddie Roach. Will he ever achieve those 8 division world champions? It's hard to say.

MMA. Strength, skill, talent, and floor control. There are a lot of factors when it comes to MMA and to make a fighter become more skillful with different ranges in MMA skills like striking and submissions he will need different coaches in different areas.

Basketball. Team strength, chemistry, and talented players. Combine this and they can be successful just like how Golden State Warriors did.

So yes, the strength of a team or a fighter/player should be a factor in choosing who you will bet for plus history if they are effectively doing it before they reach heights that other humans could not.
When it comes to analyzing if a player can beat an experienced player, it's more of a risk than analysis. I think that is why mostly they are given higher odds so that many gamblers would try to take the risk for higher profit.

[_act_]

I have actually been wondering what the bookies use in fixing the odds. I guess this topic have explained some better. Sometimes I will see a big team getting big odds only to check their fixtures to see that they have more important match they are reserving players for. This will make them no play their best so the bookies understand this and gave them proportional odds. I have taken time to read through the suggestions given and I think it will help a lot in forecast going forward.

This is one of the reasons it is good to wait until some hours or minutes before a match will start. I have taken a match before that the odd of the good team which was Juventus at the time was very small, but a day to when the match would be played, I noticed Juventus odd was increased. I browsed about it and I noticed Juventus wanted to rest many of his good players and they lost the match that day to a small club that supposed not to win the match. That taught me a lesson not to bet some days or a week before a match would be played.

[Zigabel]

I know that many experienced sports bettors place the greatest importance on the strength of teams (in team sports) or the strength of individual players (in individual sports). They believe that this is what plays a decisive role, and not other factors. For example, the advantage of home games only appears in competition between approximately equal teams. And when teams or players are not equal in strength, then comparing the strength of the teams becomes of primary importance. You may also cite other factors, such as:
1. Coach.
2. Judging.
3. Player injuries.
4. Season of the year.
Some other sport-specific factors. For example, for tennis, the surface on which the game is played matters - artificial or natural.
 The strength of teams or players is usually expressed in rankings.
What do you think: is the strength of teams or players the main factor in the forecast or not? Is ranking the only way to determine the strength of teams? And if these are the main factors, then how can you predict in advance the outcome of a game in which outsiders beat experienced teams?

All these are  factors to really consider talking about team strength and their ability to get to win any game because a team can actually be strong and still turn out to loose a game because of certain circumstances that resulted in that game, it could be before, during or even after the game but all of which are still reasons the team may either win or get to loose the game in the end and most gamblers do use that as their measure for the strength of the team and not the odds placed on them by the casino because the casino can be wrong by virtue of their odd as the team may turn out stronger the odd the casino has placed on them. sometimes beyond all of these that have been mentioned is the fact that there could be uncertainties amongst players which are considered unforeseen and are not under the players or even the coaches control. football can be filled with surprises and circumstances that weren't expected, it may be different with other games but then all of these especially the players injury is very key and important.

[AmoreJaz]

All these are  factors to really consider talking about team strength and their ability to get to win any game because a team can actually be strong and still turn out to loose a game because of certain circumstances that resulted in that game, it could be before, during or even after the game but all of which are still reasons the team may either win or get to loose the game in the end and most gamblers do use that as their measure for the strength of the team and not the odds placed on them by the casino because the casino can be wrong by virtue of their odd as the team may turn out stronger the odd the casino has placed on them. sometimes beyond all of these that have been mentioned is the fact that there could be uncertainties amongst players which are considered unforeseen and are not under the players or even the coaches control. football can be filled with surprises and circumstances that weren't expected, it may be different with other games but then all of these especially the players injury is very key and important.

The mentioned factors by the OP are indeed important in considering the potential winner of every match. However, there are some factors that you can't control at the match itself.  These factors may somehow influence the performance of the players and so the results may vary from your expectations.
The other factors you may consider are -
> condition of the environment (i,e. humidity - some players can't concentrate if the surrounding environment has high humidity, beyond normal to what he is used to)
> his current health conditions (he may be suffering simple cold and that can also hamper on his performance)
> family problems (sometimes it affects player's emotions inside the field)
> mental preparedness - you can only see this in their actual game