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Author Topic: Bookmaker's predictive mistakes.  (Read 276 times)
Julien_Olynpic (OP)
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June 30, 2024, 06:09:59 AM
 #41


This is interesting, but I doubt if the probability of the bookie's error is always presented. I mean, there could be several times when the bookie makes a mistake. however, how big the probability is. that's why up until now I've never looked into ideas like the ones you put forward, we could use them as research material or seek new knowledge, but I'm still hesitant to experiment. the reason is, we at least have a small idea of ​​how gambling bookies work. however, it does not rule out the possibility that some other members have knowledge related to this discussion.
I would like to say that there are different understandings of such a thing as “correct calculation of odds.” What does it mean? If we always calculated the odds correctly, we would never lose. On the other hand, the very fact that the bookmaker is engaged in calculating odds and creating odds tells us that he cannot absolutely accurately predict a future event and is only engaged in creating a model that very roughly predicts the future or will allow him to make money in most cases. This means that there are many factors that can affect the outcome of an event that the bookmaker does not take into account.

R


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Dr.Bitcoin_Strange
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June 30, 2024, 08:12:25 PM
 #42

Bookmaker mistakes are often predicted by some experienced gamblers, and once any error is detected, they take advantage immediately. 

I don't know what kind of errors they can take advantage of when bookmakers make sure that they do their job well. Just imagine, if they make mistakes and cater to many sportsbooks, it would be a big hit on their reputation and they would eventually struggle. So it's a mistake that cannot happen for them to remain in business. There are times when the odds are wrong, but they can revert or correct it as it has a basis or justification. Other than that, I don't see any kind of mistake that is costly on their part.

Well, human beings are not usually above mistakes, and those bookmakers don't make errors frequently because if they do, it will cause a loss for the casino. That is why they do their job diligently to avoid those errors; they always look at the odds at all times, and changes always take place. Some gamblers who luckily come across a mistaken odd and stake on it can make a big profit, but this is not something that can happen frequently. 

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Julien_Olynpic (OP)
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July 01, 2024, 01:47:23 AM
 #43

The funny paradox here is that the bookmaker may make a mistake by calculating the odds incorrectly, or he may even give the other side an advantage in the odds. But it is not at all necessary that the player will be able to take advantage of this opportunity. The fact is that a player can lose even due to the bookmaker’s mistakes. The opposite is also true: a bookmaker can lose even if he calculates the odds completely correctly. For the degree of correct calculation is never absolute and any game leaves the possibility of a random event.

R


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