Bookmaker's predictive mistakes.

[Julien_Olynpic]

Let's discuss bookmakers' predictive mistakes , because that's where we can make money. In other words, our task as players is not just to create the correct forecast and bet money on it. No, our task is to be more right than the bookmaker. But how can we be more right than the bookmaker? The only way we can win is if the bookmaker makes a mistake, and we take advantage of it. I would like to explain in more detail what I mean by bookmaker errors: these are prediction errors. That is, when your bookmaker miscalculated the odds and your bet on an outsider, for example, worked and brought you a big profit at a high odds.

So, let me ask you more detailed questions to better discuss this topic.
How do you think:
1. How often is a bookmaker wrong?
2. What is his most common mistake?
3. Why do high rates work?
4. Are bookmaker mistakes always impossible to predict?
5. What does the bookmaker overestimate and underestimate (incorrectly estimate)?
6. Why does a bookmaker make mistakes?
7. How can a bookmaker follow the herd reflex of other bookmakers?
(Errors in bookmakers copying odds from each other).

[crwth]

In terms of how often They could get wrong is very little because the only thing that Makes them afloat is the right odds that they are making. So if they are someone who just got into bookmaking and doesn’t know how to really get the calculations right it might affect their profitability. Hence more problems could occur and mistakes.

If someone is in the Bookmaking for so long, Then you would expect him to make less mistakes. It’s probably based on experience.

Looking for mistakes is a great way to profit, maybe someone could share their strategies or something.

[Baofeng]

I don't think that bookmakers makes this predictive mistakes. Remember that they all get their odds on Las Vegas and those who make it, their job is not to predict who is going to win, but to balance the bet the way they see it.

And so if it happens that there is a upset let's say, then it's not their fault or mistakes. It's that how they find the odds and it's up to us players on who we are going to pick based on the odds that is being presented to us. So it might come from all the records they have, algorithms, perhaps by now they are using AI as well. So it will not be a mistakes, it just shows that we really don't know what the outcome will be in a sport betting as sometime a underdog can defy the odds being set by the odd makers.

[Gozie51]

Bookmakers mistake is what comes once after a long while. I have noticed that a long time ago maybe 4 years back or three where a club that was better was given higher odds than the less favourable club and then bettors noticed it and where betting on it but it was letter pulled down when it was realized and I guess those early stakers got the advantage, though I have forgotten the names of the clubs for now.

Yes they make mistakes but the very noticeable ones or obvious ones don't happen all the time. I is difficult to get those common mistakes in odds because you would have to go through many options to identify such.

[Oshosondy]

I would like to explain in more detail what I mean by bookmaker errors: these are prediction errors. That is, when your bookmaker miscalculated the odds and your bet on an outsider, for example, worked and brought you a big profit at a high odds.

Sometimes you will think that the bookies are wrong but when you select the match, the result can be not in your favour. I saw two recently but I did not bet on the matches because I was kind of not to take it. The first was over 2 odd while the second was over 3.2 odd. The 2 odd drew the match while the 3.2 odd won the match after 90 minutes during 5 minutes extra time.  I have won bets like this before also. But I do not look for them, I saw them when I am looking for matches to bet on. It is not often at all to see such matches.

[swogerino]

Let's discuss bookmakers' predictive mistakes , because that's where we can make money. In other words, our task as players is not just to create the correct forecast and bet money on it. No, our task is to be more right than the bookmaker. But how can we be more right than the bookmaker? The only way we can win is if the bookmaker makes a mistake, and we take advantage of it. I would like to explain in more detail what I mean by bookmaker errors: these are prediction errors. That is, when your bookmaker miscalculated the odds and your bet on an outsider, for example, worked and brought you a big profit at a high odds.

So, let me ask you more detailed questions to better discuss this topic.
How do you think:
1. How often is a bookmaker wrong?
2. What is his most common mistake?
3. Why do high rates work?
4. Are bookmaker mistakes always impossible to predict?
5. What does the bookmaker overestimate and underestimate (incorrectly estimate)?
6. Why does a bookmaker make mistakes?
7. How can a bookmaker follow the herd reflex of other bookmakers?
(Errors in bookmakers copying odds from each other).

There are companies that deal with that,offering odds to bookmakers and of course sometimes they are wrong but that is very difficult to predict.Some people who do arbitrage betting all they do is checking different odds in order to take profit from these odds differences.That is the only error which we can measure directly and also take profit from if we have enough resources.The error which I assume you are asking is if there is a big gap through different bookmakers which we can also take profit sometime if we place a bet on that game and happen to win for example with odd 2.2 where in other bookmakers is 1.95 so these are errors we can capitalize on.If you mean that odds are 1.3 for a certain team and that team loses it is exactly here that bookmakers make money.

[Upgrade00]

If you're talking solely about odds being too high or too low that's not classified as a bookmaker mistake and gives no guarantee of profits. You could try betting on the team which was given a higher odd than what you expected based on their chances of winning and they still lose.

A mistake that guarantees profit will be a miscalculation that allows players to be guaranteed profits if they play on all possible outcomes or they arbitrage across different bookies. Or adding an option which gives players an almost guaranteed chance of winning. I've seen bookies open new gambling options and close that after a few games cause they were being exploited.

To keep this thread running you'll need to ensure that the info being shared doesn't result in illegal activity according to the ToS.

[mirakal]

It is hard to prove that they got wrong because their job is to create odds which I don't think is how we say they are wrong if a bettor thinks this team should get higher or lower odds. Of course, they will do the analysis first before publishing it but it depends in the better where they put their bets. If we lose, it doesn't mean the bookmakers are wrong as they don't do anything to change the results of the game. We accept the fact that we are not lucky enough to get the favor and many times that the underdog wins. This means that betting never ensures winnings even if we place our bet on the winning team, sometimes they lose as well.

[Natalim]

Bookmakers don't make mistakes because they set lines for both sides. If bettors put a lot of money on one side, bookmakers are willing to move the line on the other to attract bets and balance the action. Oddsmakers know their job very well as they are experts in that field and have already anticipated how people will react when they release the betting lines.

I think this discussion should focus on sports bettors' predictive mistakes, because there is smart money in sports and public bets based on public sentiment.

[Lida93]

Let's discuss bookmakers' predictive mistakes , because that's where we can make money. In other words, our task as players is not just to create the correct forecast and bet money on it. No, our task is to be more right than the bookmaker. But how can we be more right than the bookmaker?

It is only when our forecasted games plays as predicted that we can call it a correct forecast, right? If it's a lost then it wasn't  a correct forecast at all. So what difference does it make for in being more right than the bookmakers?

Bookmakers, imo are wrong as often as they could be. They aren't superhumans anyway despite their being said to have expertise at what they do. Their main job is to confuse gamblers with the odds in games with how they delineate odds sizes. That's why we sometimes find team's with very big odds winning a match against a team with very small odd different from what we had expected going by the stats of both teams.  

Though in few cases it backfires at them that they get to be at loss while gamblers profit. The difference between bookmakers and the gamblers is that they have a higher accurate statistical measurements than the gamblers.

[Findingnemo]

If I am not wrong if there is any mistake find from the bookmakers then all the bets will be voided and the funds better will be refund so the whole concept of capitalizing mistake is not possible at all, the only place where we can capitalize is to make use of the difference in the odds and that's most common but I mentioned about that earlier is the difference amount will be insignificant so better not to focus too much on it.

[AHOYBRAUSE]

Bookmakers don't make mistakes because they set lines for both sides. If bettors put a lot of money on one side, bookmakers are willing to move the line on the other to attract bets and balance the action. Oddsmakers know their job very well as they are experts in that field and have already anticipated how people will react when they release the betting lines.

I think this discussion should focus on sports bettors' predictive mistakes, because there is smart money in sports and public bets based on public sentiment.

They do make mistakes, I have seen this countless times. Have had bets/lines cancelled for "wrong odds" several times. Always very annoying when the bookmaker makes the mistake and the player pays the price. If I as a player accidentally bet too much or on the wrong side for example they won't let you cancel it, even if you contact the support seconds after and the game doesn't start for another 5 hours.

[YOSHIE]

1. How often is a bookmaker wrong?
2. What is his most common mistake?
3. Why do high rates work?
4. Are bookmaker mistakes always impossible to predict?
5. What does the bookmaker overestimate and underestimate (incorrectly estimate)?
6. Why does a bookmaker make mistakes?
7. How can a bookmaker follow the herd reflex of other bookmakers?
(Errors in bookmakers copying odds from each other).

1. Online gambling bookies, they are humans, generally humans are not free from the mistakes and mistakes they make, whether they are bookies, operators and so on, If you ask 'how often' the answer is clearly difficult, but bookies often make mistakes, for example in setting odds which as far as I know they often do.
2. If I'm not mistaken bookmakers make the most common mistakes in betting such as: offering odds and other common mistakes such as placing different odds on the same betting event.
3. Don't understand.
4. As far as I know, betting is very volatile, whether it is the bookie's or the player's error, meaning it cannot be predicted accurately.
5. Don't understand.
6. Because they are humans too.
7. Don't know.

That's what I can answer.

[Slow death]

Let's discuss bookmakers' predictive mistakes , because that's where we can make money. In other words, our task as players is not just to create the correct forecast and bet money on it. No, our task is to be more right than the bookmaker. But how can we be more right than the bookmaker? The only way we can win is if the bookmaker makes a mistake, and we take advantage of it. I would like to explain in more detail what I mean by bookmaker errors: these are prediction errors. That is, when your bookmaker miscalculated the odds and your bet on an outsider, for example, worked and brought you a big profit at a high odds.

So, let me ask you more detailed questions to better discuss this topic.
How do you think:
1. How often is a bookmaker wrong?
2. What is his most common mistake?
3. Why do high rates work?
4. Are bookmaker mistakes always impossible to predict?
5. What does the bookmaker overestimate and underestimate (incorrectly estimate)?
6. Why does a bookmaker make mistakes?
7. How can a bookmaker follow the herd reflex of other bookmakers?
(Errors in bookmakers copying odds from each other).

Although these are very rare cases, at least that I have seen, bookmakers make mistakes when there are games involving teams from Africa, Asia and some from Latin America. I say error in the sense that they give high odds to a team that at the end of the game wins easily and sometimes they give very low odds to a team that in the end loses in a humiliating way, I've seen this happen a few times when I placed bets on league games from Korea and China, then I saw it a few times in the games of national teams from Africa, maybe it's because as they are not very popular games, the oddsmakers don't know these teams very well, so they make mistakes when assigning odds. But looking in general, these errors are very small, they are things that are not worth keeping an eye on to take advantage of, because there is a greater chance of the person losing bets and money. The best thing is for a person to bet on popular leagues where they have fair odds

[Solosanz]

I think in order to know if the bookmaker make mistake is to compare the odds with other bookies, if the difference is really high, then they made mistakes. If you place a bet and win, it's better to withdraw the winning ASAP since the bookie might voided your bets and confiscate your winning.

It's very rare to see bookmaker make mistake especially technology is always evolving.

[Sim_card]

Looking for bookmakers mistake in order for you to take advantage of the net is a waste of time. This is because they make mistakes once in a while since it is their job to calculate the odds and they know what is involved if any mistakes happens. However, nobody is perfect and there are some matches that the bookmakers will predict but after the game it turns out to be the opposite, most bettors will also run at loss, since it was the underdog that won the match.

[_act_]

Looking for bookmakers mistake in order for you to take advantage of the net is a waste of time. This is because they make mistakes once in a while since it is their job to calculate the odds and they know what is involved if any mistakes happens. However, nobody is perfect and there are some matches that the bookmakers will predict but after the game it turns out to be the opposite, most bettors will also run at loss, since it was the underdog that won the match.

I also see it as a waste of time. If I want to bet, I go for better odds that I think I have the highest chance to win. But there are some time that you will see the bookmakers make mistake but which is not common because these betting sites also check other betting sites to see how their odds are. That is why you will see that all the odds on bookmakers are almost the same, including the matches odd that you think they make mistakes.

Looking for the mistake will only also take me time that I need to have on other things. I do not really have time to bet which can not make me to go for that kind of betting. Betting is just for fun and not for making money, but the research that could cost me might make it not fun for me.

[Agbe]

Bookmakers mistake is what comes once after a long while. I have noticed that a long time ago maybe 4 years back or three where a club that was better was given higher odds than the less favourable club and then bettors noticed it and where betting on it but it was letter pulled down when it was realized and I guess those early stakers got the advantage, though I have forgotten the names of the clubs for now.

Yes they make mistakes but the very noticeable ones or obvious ones don't happen all the time. I is difficult to get those common mistakes in odds because you would have to go through many options to identify such.

You are right, bookmarkers make mistake once a while and if they do they would noticed it fast and fixed the mistake. It was in the year 2020 or there about ans I was in the betting shop and such thing happened and many people won from the mistake that day. And within some hours the problem was fixed. But we don't have to look for bookmarkers mistakes instead play along and try our lucks. Bookmarkers in this days are very much careful in the arrangement of games. So it is very difficult to see such mistakes. But if happened, then gamblers will use the opportunity to win odds.

[danherbias07]

1. Very rare. They almost make no mistakes.
2. Check the player props, sometimes they get it wrong there.
3. Lack of updated news.
4. Impossible to find, not impossible to predict.
5. Stats. I have never found a mistake by a bookmaker by just the odds of the winning team. In basketball.
6. I have no idea.
7. Hmm. That's something that must be asked of them.

I rarely see mistakes and the one that I cannot forget is betting on Nikola Jokic's overall statistics. Points, rebounds, and assists. The given amount was 53 PRA if I remember it right. Then, even before the game started I was already a winner. I can cash out without even thinking about whether Jokic can make it or not. It grew from 53 PRA @x1.80+ to 57 PRA at the same amount.
It not a large change but imagine if you are betting for millions of dollars. That's a win with no hassle.

[Sunderland]

That is right, bookmakers sometimes made mistakes when providing the odds and I saw that usually happened in live betting.
But that usually only happens in a matter of seconds, after correction the odds will be back to normal.

And if someone bets on an abnormal/error odds, it is certain that the bet will be void, casino have the right and legal to do that in accordance with the T&C that the user agrees to when registering on the platform.
I suggest not to bet on abnormal/error odds, because 100% it will be voided and the cancellation process might take several hours to several days.