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Author Topic: Long-term market reversal?  (Read 4948 times)
proudhon
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December 20, 2011, 06:23:41 PM
 #21

Looks like a determined bear-bot.
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wareen
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December 20, 2011, 06:28:44 PM
 #22

As much as I'm happy about the recent rally, I don't think prices much above 4 will be sustainable throughout the upcoming year. It's probably fair to say that the slow-motion bursting of the June bubble is now over and that the market has found the bottom for now. However, I fully expect 3$ to be tested again during the next few months - maybe right after the holiday-season.

With Bitcoin, also the "slope of enlightenment" will be a very bumpy ride.
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December 20, 2011, 06:31:54 PM
 #23

After every rally, there's a correction... I can't see bears regaining control yet.

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December 20, 2011, 06:33:00 PM
 #24

Love those corrections. Prolly gonna buy some more if we get close to 3,70ish. It was a resistance zone when we rallied, it's most likely going to be a support zone this time. Let's see how this turns out =)

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December 20, 2011, 06:34:02 PM
 #25

After every rally, there's a correction... I can't see bears regaining control yet.

Exactly, that rally was huge!
proudhon
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December 20, 2011, 06:45:55 PM
 #26

The good thing is that people aren't holding their bitcoins as long, and throw their 10,000BTC purchases up as asks almost as soon as they buy them.  Hopefully this will serve to smack these moments of irrational exuberance in the face.
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December 20, 2011, 06:51:28 PM
 #27

Bitcoin is likely to correct to the suggestive iv fourth wave price range of three weeks ago. It is the motion from that ~$3 range that distinguishes 'more of the same' from 'yearly reversal'.

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proudhon
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December 20, 2011, 08:04:31 PM
 #28

Whatever happened to all the Elliot-wave charts?

netrin just linked to one, no?  netrin's view seems to be that the price is going to go back down into the 2s - a view I'm not unsympathetic to.
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December 20, 2011, 08:26:52 PM
 #29

netrin's view seems to be that the price is going to go back down into the 2s - a view I'm not unsympathetic to.

Now who'd have guessed that Wink
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December 20, 2011, 09:28:47 PM
 #30

netrin's view seems to be that the price is going to go back down into the 2s - a view I'm not unsympathetic to.

Now who'd have guessed that Wink

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December 20, 2011, 10:12:39 PM
 #31

Whatever happened to all the Elliot-wave charts?

netrin just linked to one, no?  netrin's view seems to be that the price is going to go back down into the 2s - a view I'm not unsympathetic to.

I am hopeful about this as well since I will tank up again if it happens.

I have significant funds which did not get employed because we never got to sub-$2.00 levels.  The recent mini-rally here and continued lack of system defects adds to the confidence I have in the base value of the system so I would likely do another relatively large buy-in in the mid $2.00 range.

Unlike a lot of more clever traders, I have never liquidated any of my holdings and have no plan of doing so.  I've got the cojones to double-down on a decline, but not to unload.  I guess that is because I am bullish, or at least very hopeful, about the long term potential of the system.

I suppose another factor is that I would have to trust an exchange with more money than I wish to in order to be a big-time trader even if I did have confidence that I could accurately time the cycles.  And yet another factor is that I have chronic paranoia that the exchanges will be shut down and it will become much more cumbersome, dangerous, and protracted to buy in in a modest way.


zby
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December 20, 2011, 10:25:05 PM
 #32

One thing is sure - since the decline in June until  December all rallies were only bounce backs after large drops.  Now this is finished.  The first rally from 2 to 3 was the first one that went higher than the previous large drop, now this is confirmed with another one.
netrin
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December 20, 2011, 10:42:00 PM
 #33

Anyone looking for seasonal patterns must study mid October: a clear motive (zig-zag) through the end of the month, followed by a messy bounce down, and a clear impulsive wave up since mid November.

The optimistic view might label November as a failed fifth wave, followed by a strong reversal. I really 'want' that to be true, but I'm afraid it's not honest. It's a pretty clear 3-3-5 flat correction signaling 'more of the same' since June. Further more $0.6-$1.1 is suggested by the March fourth wave.

As of this morning, I have no strong position, and await better signals.


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proudhon
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December 20, 2011, 11:04:43 PM
 #34

Anyone looking for seasonal patterns must study mid October: a clear motive (zig-zag) through the end of the month, followed by a messy bounce down, and a clear impulsive wave up since mid November.

The optimistic view might label November as a failed fifth wave, followed by a strong reversal. I really 'want' that to be true, but I'm afraid it's not honest. It's a pretty clear 3-3-5 flat correction signaling 'more of the same' since June. Further more $0.6-$1.1 is suggested by the March fourth wave.

As of this morning, I have no strong position, and await better signals.



I'm glad somebody is taking a position contrary to S3052's recent enthusiasm.
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December 20, 2011, 11:21:24 PM
 #35

It would be boring if all would agree with me  Wink

The market will decide who is right or wrong. In my p.o.v the market dynamics have changed a lot. The current rise is very healthy , supported by strong volume.
Sure it will not go up in a straight line. There will be corrections along the way, but I see likelihood of 60-65% that we will not see bitcoin prices below 2 $ in the next weeks and months any more. More details and alerts in the subscriber section.

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December 20, 2011, 11:38:06 PM
 #36

It would be boring if all would agree with me  Wink

The market will decide who is right or wrong. In my p.o.v the market dynamics have changed a lot. The current rise is very healthy , supported by strong volume.
Sure it will not go up in a straight line. There will be corrections along the way, but I see likelihood of 60-65% that we will not see bitcoin prices below 2 $ in the next weeks and months any more. More details and alerts in the subscriber section.

I am willing to put my money where my mouth is.

Proudhon bet you 50 Bitcoins that the price doesn't dip below $2 in the next 2 weeks.

Let me know if you want to go in.

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ineededausername
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December 21, 2011, 12:08:23 AM
 #37

It would be boring if all would agree with me  Wink

The market will decide who is right or wrong. In my p.o.v the market dynamics have changed a lot. The current rise is very healthy , supported by strong volume.
Sure it will not go up in a straight line. There will be corrections along the way, but I see likelihood of 60-65% that we will not see bitcoin prices below 2 $ in the next weeks and months any more. More details and alerts in the subscriber section.

I am willing to put my money where my mouth is.

Proudhon bet you 50 Bitcoins that the price doesn't dip below $2 in the next 2 weeks.

Let me know if you want to go in.

Next two weeks?!

I accept.  Is it a deal, proudhon?

(BFL)^2 < 0
netrin
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December 21, 2011, 02:18:53 AM
 #38

I don't think that's a fair bet. It's like asking the bulls to bet that the price rises above $8 in the next two weeks. You also win if there's no movement at all. Perhaps add the option of a draw, suggest less than $3 vs. above $5?

* unless... did someone already made that claim (<$2 in 2 weeks)?

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ineededausername
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December 21, 2011, 04:07:47 AM
 #39

Proudhon bet you 50 Bitcoins that the price doesn't dip below $2 in the next 2 weeks.

lol I thought you had something worked out with Proudhon and were offering it to S3052... Sad

(BFL)^2 < 0
netrin
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December 21, 2011, 07:59:59 AM
 #40

Proudhon, I bet you 50 Bitcoins that the price doesn't dip below $2 in the next 2 weeks.

lol I thought you (who?) had something worked out with Proudhon and were offering it to S3052... Sad

This thread has some serious pronoun issues. Who and to whom about what are we talking about?

Greenlandic tupilak. Hand carved, traditional cursed bone figures. Sorry, polar bear, walrus and human remains not available for export.
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