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Author Topic: Long-term market reversal?  (Read 4941 times)
Technomage
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December 21, 2011, 01:46:13 PM
 #41

I don't put that much faith in Elliot waves so I have a different viewpoint. I tend to agree with S3052 right now, we are very likely completely changing course right now. This isn't straightforward though, we could be bouncing between $3 and $4 for a while. Price below $3 seems very unlikely to me at this point.

Lately I have come to the conclusion that we could be on our way to a price way past the June bubble. But it won't be the same as it was in June, the reasons for investing in Bitcoin will be more grounded to sanity instead of greed.

This is because it's becoming clear that Bitcoin doesn't die easily. It's not a company that will simply go under. Taking into account the hardships the Bitcoin-world has endured, it will literally seem like a miracle when it starts rising from the ashes, which it is doing now.

This will lead to people appreciating Bitcoin for what it is, a highly robust technology that has the ability to make storing and moving money cheaper, easier and more reliable than ever. And it makes 95% of bank activities obsolete. A lot of intermediaries will become obsolete on all levels leading to cheaper prices for everything.

This is obviously a long term view. Very long term. But I think that we're going to see the first real developments toward this in 2012. My investment position is mirroring my views. Which means I hold a long position and have no interest in selling unless a clear bubble forms again. And fundamentally single digit prices are not even close to a bubble, they are more like serious undervaluation for a technology as solid as Bitcoin.

And on another note, I still hold my view that for the skeptics to start believing in Bitcoin rising from the ashes we needs to reach $7. But this is a good start.

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December 21, 2011, 01:54:30 PM
 #42

I don't put that much faith in Elliot waves so I have a different viewpoint. I tend to agree with S3052 right now, we are very likely completely changing course right now. This isn't straightforward though, we could be bouncing between $3 and $4 for a while. Price below $3 seems very unlikely to me at this point.

Lately I have come to the conclusion that we could be on our way to a price way past the June bubble. But it won't be the same as it was in June, the reasons for investing in Bitcoin will be more grounded to sanity instead of greed.

This is because it's becoming clear that Bitcoin doesn't die easily. It's not a company that will simply go under. Taking into account the hardships the Bitcoin-world has endured, it will literally seem like a miracle when it starts rising from the ashes, which it is doing now.

This will lead to people appreciating Bitcoin for what it is, a highly robust technology that has the ability to make storing and moving money cheaper, easier and more reliable than ever. And it makes 95% of bank activities obsolete. A lot of intermediaries will become obsolete on all levels leading to cheaper prices.

This is obviously a long term view. Very long term. But I think that we're going to see the first real developments towards this in 2012. My on position right now is mirroring my views. Which means I hold a long position and have no interest in selling unless a clear bubble has formed. And fundamentally that excludes at least all single digit prices.

And on another note, I still hold my view that for the skeptics to start believing in Bitcoin rising from the ashes we needs to reach $7. But this is a good start.

I agree.  It will be a bumpy ride to $7... market making bot engaged.

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zby
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December 21, 2011, 08:03:17 PM
 #43

It would be boring if all would agree with me  Wink

The market will decide who is right or wrong. In my p.o.v the market dynamics have changed a lot. The current rise is very healthy , supported by strong volume.
Sure it will not go up in a straight line. There will be corrections along the way, but I see likelihood of 60-65% that we will not see bitcoin prices below 2 $ in the next weeks and months any more. More details and alerts in the subscriber section.


How about prices below 3?
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December 22, 2011, 04:50:04 PM
 #44

bitcoin prices below 3 $ would be rather bearish at this stage

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December 22, 2011, 05:16:32 PM
 #45

Down to 3.75 already, that was a nice bull trap.  

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December 22, 2011, 05:36:25 PM
 #46

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Down to 3.75 already, that was a nice bull trap.

Nah it was just Zhoutong needing $$$ for hookers and blow for Christmas  Cheesy

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December 22, 2011, 06:50:00 PM
 #47

Down to 3.75 already, that was a nice bull trap.
I see this as an expected correction after a rally that clearly overshot. It was a bull trap only to short term players. Now we are entering the real trap zone and I can give one hint. It's not a bull trap.

Especially now that we got some pretty good press coverage thanks to the rally, an overly bearish correction is very unlikely and the area further down will most likely be a massive bear trap.

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December 22, 2011, 06:53:38 PM
 #48

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Down to 3.75 already, that was a nice bull trap.

Nah it was just Zhoutong needing $$$ for hookers and blow for Christmas  Cheesy
LOL

wow, that really caught me off guard.

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December 25, 2011, 03:35:55 AM
 #49

Isn't Bitcoin technically a fiat currency? (not to start a flame war or anything, but I mean under a technical definition)

EDIT: (3/13/2013) I wonder sometimes if the word "fiat" refers to the traditional "government" or the latin term of "let it be done". The first country to do fiat currency was actually China, with the intention of having it be converted every three years at a specific rate. Later on it would be used in the US by banks as a way to pay off taxes, and eventually such bills would become the only way to pay taxes. Most countries then adopted such a system, and we've been willingly following it ever since.

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December 25, 2011, 04:00:39 AM
 #50

Isn't Bitcoin technically a fiat currency? (not to start a flame war or anything, but I mean under a technical definition)

no

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December 25, 2011, 04:08:03 AM
 #51

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Noun:   
A formal authorization or proposition; a decree.
An arbitrary order.


Who formally authorized bitcoin again?  Was it Obama, or maybe David Cameron?

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December 25, 2011, 04:09:15 AM
 #52

Isn't Bitcoin technically a fiat currency? (not to start a flame war or anything, but I mean under a technical definition)

Well I guess it depends on how you store it. If its on a HD then it has an intrinsic value of the HD, on one of Casaacius' gold coins would be a good place to store them. Smiley

But, I would think you are correct. It's only value is in what the community gives it.

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December 25, 2011, 06:42:53 AM
 #53

The definitions of 'fiat money' given by Oxford, Webster, and Wiktionary all include 'government decree'.

The etymology, from Latin comes to English in 1630s as "let it be done". I presume similar to French 'faire' - to do or make.

The very first references in English are translations of Genesis, 'fiat lux', 'γενηθήτω φῶς' (genēthētō phōs), '','יְהִי אוֹר' (yehiy 'or), 'let there be light'. The evolution of usage is first God at creation, then government stole the term, perhaps now the people can now repossess the term. Prometheus, baby! According to Wikipedia, the phrase is often used for its metaphorical meaning of dispelling ignorance. How appropriate then to refer to bitcoin as the new fiat lux - dispelling ignorance.

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December 25, 2011, 08:19:10 AM
 #54

It could be considered fiat in the sense that code is law.

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