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Author Topic: Long-term market reversal?  (Read 4942 times)
ineededausername
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December 19, 2011, 02:43:18 PM
 #1

I think the rally of the past month or so proves that we're in a major Elliott wave now (what do you call a bigger wave?).  Many indicators have turned bullish for the first time in months... if you look on bitcoincharts and click a random one with 1-day intervals, it has probably turned long-term bullish.  We could see triple digits next year!

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NamelessOne
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December 19, 2011, 02:45:38 PM
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Agreed, I'll still be paying close attention to the 4-5, but things are looking up.
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December 19, 2011, 02:46:40 PM
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this has been obvious since i put up my only 2 threads ever in this Wild West forum a while back.
ineededausername
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December 19, 2011, 02:47:27 PM
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this has been obvious since i put up my only 2 threads ever in this Wild West forum a while back.

haha, people like Nagle were still here back then.  Now it's only proudhon and he's not trolling anymore.

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December 19, 2011, 02:51:53 PM
 #5

this has been obvious since i put up my only 2 threads ever in this Wild West forum a while back.

haha, people like Nagle were still here back then.  Now it's only proudhon and he's not trolling anymore.

yeah, i took a real beating from all the trolls back then.  wasn't fun but i had to defend what i think is a revolutionary achievement.
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December 19, 2011, 03:09:10 PM
 #6

We are in the process of a reversal but I think that for a final confirmation the $3.8 - $4 range must be broken. That would turn the tide but even that is not enough for the market to revert to a super bullish state. Reaching important targets around $7 would probably be enough to change the minds of the pessimists as well.

While I acknowledge this, I don't want it to happen too fast. We don't want to repeat what happened in June. I'm quite confident that it won't happen because everyone now knows what can happen and there are more experienced speculators trading now than there were then. It's unlikely that people will make the same mistakes twice. But we'll see what happens, greed could take over and then we will see a repeat.

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December 19, 2011, 03:39:54 PM
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We are in the process of a reversal but I think that for a final confirmation the $3.8 - $4 range must be broken. That would turn the tide but even that is not enough for the market to revert to a super bullish state. Reaching important targets around $7 would probably be enough to change the minds of the pessimists as well.

While I acknowledge this, I don't want it to happen too fast. We don't want to repeat what happened in June. I'm quite confident that it won't happen because everyone now knows what can happen and there are more experienced speculators trading now than there were then. It's unlikely that people will make the same mistakes twice. But we'll see what happens, greed could take over and then we will see a repeat.

I bought in at $14 as a total nube, and slowy watched my initial investment disappear (until it occured to me I could just sell my bitcoins and wait for a better price).
Since then I've watched the charts daily, read all the news and at $2.35 I bought in again. I think a lot of people have had similar experiences and have learned a lot in the past few months
Dan The Man
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December 19, 2011, 08:52:26 PM
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After losing all of my Bitcoin play money shorting at the wrong time, I have to agree that the general trend has changed. Now comes the rationalization necessary to invest more dollars. I'm sure I will act smarter this time.

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December 19, 2011, 09:07:03 PM
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After losing all of my Bitcoin play money shorting at the wrong time, I have to agree that the general trend has changed. Now comes the rationalization necessary to invest more dollars. I'm sure I will act smarter this time.
I've "only" lost half of my short money at present; I keep wondering if I should kill the short while I still have something left at Bitcoinica, or just let it sit and either get liquidated or hopefully ride out this bump in price. I'm still far from convinced that we'll continue going up, mostly because all the talk of BTC having "sound fundamentals" seems like lunacy to me. I'm here because I have access to a reasonable set of hardware which allows me to mine for BTC. I made some money earlier when pricing was higher during the bubble, but all along I was selling everything I mined because I didn't expect prices to stay up. The $2-$3 range is where I expect BTC to settle for some time, and right now we're above that, but we could experience another bubble and hit $30+ again. My mining equipment hopes that's the case, while my Bitcoinica short is hedging we'll be back down into the low 2s in the next week or two.

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December 19, 2011, 09:09:46 PM
 #10

After losing all of my Bitcoin play money shorting at the wrong time, I have to agree that the general trend has changed. Now comes the rationalization necessary to invest more dollars. I'm sure I will act smarter this time.

I have to say that I am delighted to find that you can be wrong given your unbelievable series of high precision wins and prediction for a long term decline.  I hope that you are simply very good at short term market prediction and suck at secular market calls.  But, as always, I remain prepared for any eventuality...emotionally and monetarily at least.


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December 19, 2011, 10:10:31 PM
 #11

Hopefully this remains true
ineededausername
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December 20, 2011, 02:19:27 AM
 #12

omg this rally is huge! High: 3.8! We just beat the previous high :O

We're going to 4, everyone.

edit: Anyone see that plateau after $4 in depth?  Yeah, watch out for that.
The lack of asks is what drives a bubble.  Growth pattern -> people afraid to sell, asks wiped out constantly -> More growth.

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NamelessOne
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December 20, 2011, 02:28:44 AM
 #13

Yes! YES!!
dancupid
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December 20, 2011, 04:41:07 AM
 #14

omg this rally is huge! High: 3.8! We just beat the previous high :O

We're going to 4, everyone.

edit: Anyone see that plateau after $4 in depth?  Yeah, watch out for that.
The lack of asks is what drives a bubble.  Growth pattern -> people afraid to sell, asks wiped out constantly -> More growth.

It looks to be about 20kbtc to take it to $5.1 (and $4 broke as I'm typing)
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December 20, 2011, 06:17:27 AM
 #15

I think the rally of the past month or so proves (suggests) that we're in a (new III) major Elliott wave now (what do you call a bigger wave?)

Maybe. Bitcoin has breeched the June channel, but has not definitively broken from the Oct-November bouncing pattern. 19 October may have begun a 3-3-5 flat. I think you should wait for this rally's correction and third wave before declaring 'proofs' on the yearly trend.

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December 20, 2011, 11:56:54 AM
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I take the recent behaviour of the market as a sign of a confirmed reversal.

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Enky1974
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December 20, 2011, 12:13:46 PM
 #17

Maybe. Bitcoin has breeched the June channel, but has not definitively broken from the Oct-November bouncing pattern. 19 October may have begun a 3-3-5 flat. I think you should wait for this rally's correction and third wave before declaring 'proofs' on the yearly trend.
You should look also volume, not only price action, especially the net volume or the difference beetween uptick and downtick volume, you could compute it only if you have all the historical Intraday Tick by Tick data of mtgox and the sierrachart trading platform.
Since november low the cumulative difference is +154000 btc, not much; at the time of the all time high at 32$ it was +741000 btc, now there are more bitcoins around compared to 5 months ago, so higher you go more difficult it is with the same amount of net volume. We need more buyers today to reach higher prices again.



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cypherdoc
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December 20, 2011, 02:58:53 PM
 #18

I take the recent behaviour of the market as a sign of a confirmed reversal.

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December 20, 2011, 06:21:28 PM
 #19

Let's see if the bears can regain control.
NamelessOne
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December 20, 2011, 06:22:38 PM
 #20

Naaa, this is just expected panic, hehe
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