US-China economy war + radical Trump = higher inflation + interest rates + war

[pooya87]

With a quick look at GDP charts you can see that Chinese economy has been rapidly growing. For reasons that nobody can understand the US regime sees that as a threat and at some point they declared war on China! It's more like a cold war and one of the battlefields is the economy.

The biggest and most radical step was taken by the Trump administration back in 2018-19 when he started a Tariff War with China. A war that Biden continued as well. But this war is like shooting yourself in the foot! It has imposed nearly $80 billion worth of new taxes on Americans which is one of the largest tax increases in decades. Has cost them 142,000 full-time equivalent jobs and about $40 billion reduced GDP.

But so far the Europeans hadn't really follow this war (nor did anybody else). So it remained a US thing and nobody really cared elsewhere.
But things are changing.
The US regime is forcing Europeans to follow and the decision makers in Europe that apparently lack independence, seem to be getting on board. So it will stop being a local thing in US.

On top of that Trump is talking about a massive increase in Tariffs by throwing out the idea of 60% increase. According to the article below that radical move is predicted to "hike taxes by another $524 billion annually and shrink GDP by at least 0.8 percent, the capital stock by 0.7 percent, and employment by 684,000 full-time equivalent jobs".

https://taxfoundation.org/research/all/federal/trump-tariffs-biden-tariffs/

This will all cause inflation in both USA and Europe. We know how they battle inflation too, they increase interest rates.
(This could hurt bitcoin rise as well)
Above this line is what everyone else is saying as well. Here I want to explore some more possibilities, and just think out loud a little.

Another way they've always used to control inflation is to bring down energy prices (remember Petrodollar).
In order to do that they'll have to increase the supply of oil in the global market.
To do that they need to (1) remove sanctions on Russia and let that oil flow again (2) convince Arab dictators to increase their production (3) end the wars in West Asia so that security comes back and they can actually increase production (remember Saudi invasion of Yemen is in a ceasefire state and not ended).

There is a good chance that the next US president will be able to fulfill #1 by ending the NATO-Russian war (possibly recognizing occupied parts as Russia) as there are enough signals coming out from US making me confident about that possibility. Trump will probably have an easier time doing that because of his radical decisions.

The problem will be #2 and #3.
If Trump wins, his radical cabinet will not allow him to end any wars in West Asia specially the genocide that Israel is committing in Palestine. His recent choice of VP, the US senator James D. Vance who is a radical evangelist (very close to Zionism) and a big advocate for supporting terrorists and the ongoing genocide, is a clear indication of that. His previous cabinet was also filled with such radicals and warmongers.

(#2) Saudis are pro-Trump but the world has changed since last time he was in office. These Arab dictators have already applied to join BRICS, have refused to extend the Petrodollar agreement, have been selling oil using Yuan, etc. Convincing them again is not going to be easy in the New World Order specially since the killer of the Washington Post journalist now demands a lot of things from F35s all the way to nuclear facilities from United States regime!

(#3) Here is where things get complicated. I mentioned Yemen above as one of the cases that I think is the most significant.
Yemen is like Ukraine (an invaded country) except that this invasion has been going on for a long time and today Yemen has capabilities that Ukraine can not dream of having (NATO either doesn't have those capabilities or don't give it to Ukraine). That war hasn't ended yet, it is in "suspense" or in other words in a cease-fire that the Arab coalition regularly breaks.
In recent weeks Yemeni officials announced that if the Saudi aggression doesn't end they'll start the policy of what I can call "an eye for an eye". Long story short we could start seeing Saudi infrastructure go up in smokes again (like the oil giant Aramco). The Yemeni government has already handed over the file to the military. That shoots the oil price up!

• So when the US regime goes ahead with the Tariff War hoping they can reduce energy prices to control inflation, things may not go according to plan and we end up seeing another energy crisis.
• It will become even worse when Europe joins in the Tariff War.
• It will become a lot worse if radicals win in US upcoming election and with people like Vance as VP we could even see a regional war in West Asia which would shoot up energy prices even more
• Many are speculating that Zionists are postponing the war on Lebanon to after Trump wins. The only way they can do that is with the direct help of US military. But the moment US gets directly involved, all US bases in two dozen countries go under heavy attacks. Many of these countries are energy exports like Qatar (major gas exports) and Saudi usurped Arabia (major oil exporter). You can already guess the effects of that on energy prices.

P.S. Keep in mind that China will retaliate as well which requires a separate topic to discuss the effects of that.

[WillyAp]

When looking over data we need to get the data of most authentic type.
Unfortunately some website try to manipulate us.

The US has data at display:
https://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/balance/c5700.html   

How unbiased that data is only the census knows. I believe it to be accurate.

[electronicash]

is the Saudi still aggressive toward the Yemeni government?
the Chinese government has already made agreed to be peaceful between Saudi and Iran. this will only put them in chaos again and this time, the Saudis are unsure if the US forces will come to the rescue because of the PetroUSD discontinuation. Yemeni blowing up infrastructures means Iran being a Yemeni ally will in against Saudi.

Trump choosing Vance makes no sense but it must confirm being a president or a president to be doesn't mean they are in control. Vance is also a warmonger who thinks China is the real threat and putting the Middle East in chaos means a win for him against China.

[pooya87]

The US has data at display:
https://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/balance/c5700.html   

That shows the trade size and the trade deficit US has. None of it has anything to do with the discussion here!

is the Saudi still aggressive toward the Yemeni government?

Yes they are. The blockade still continues and the cease fire terms have been violated multiple times by the Arab-US coalition.

the Chinese government has already made agreed to be peaceful between Saudi and Iran. this will only put them in chaos again and this time, the Saudis are unsure if the US forces will come to the rescue because of the PetroUSD discontinuation.

As I always say the damage Trump did to America is yet to be realized by Americans. He isolated USA more than ever, he not only pushed away allies (NATO and others) but also pushed colonies and dependent dictatorships like Saudi family away.

Remember that when the Armed Forces of Yemen started their series of retaliations against their invaders, Trump was in office and the US regime didn't come to their rescue back then either. At that time not only Saudi infrastructure like Aramco went up in smokes but also US military bases in Arabia went under attack.

This is one of the reasons why the Saudi regime has been distancing itself from US (selling oil in Yuan, discontinuation of Petrodollar, cutting oil production to keep price up despite US demands, making deals with Russia and China, etc.). They finally realized that the US regime only wants to use them for their oil and care about nothing else and most importantly the US military is not even capable of protecting them as we saw it back then and we are seeing it today in the Red Sea how the US Navy is being easily attacked and incapacitated like USS Dwight D. Eisenhower that had to be brought back home due to the damages it took.

[NotATether]

Another way they've always used to control inflation is to bring down energy prices (remember Petrodollar).
In order to do that they'll have to increase the supply of oil in the global market.
To do that they need to (1) remove sanctions on Russia and let that oil flow again (2) convince Arab dictators to increase their production (3) end the wars in West Asia so that security comes back and they can actually increase production (remember Saudi invasion of Yemen is in a ceasefire state and not ended).

There is a good chance that the next US president will be able to fulfill #1 by ending the NATO-Russian war (possibly recognizing occupied parts as Russia) as there are enough signals coming out from US making me confident about that possibility. Trump will probably have an easier time doing that because of his radical decisions.

The problem will be #2 and #3.
~

I don't think that Ukraine has any intention to end the war any time soon unless they get their occupied providences back (they will also push for Crimea but there is a tiny chance that that part could be negotiated over).

EU too, are not willing to let a ceasefire happen until that is done, because the cold, calculating Putin would like to invade other european countries next after he is done with Ukraine, so they are unlikely to cooperate.

[kryptqnick]

The USA and China are major political rivals, representing very different values, worldviews, and approaches. Honestly, an economic war I believe is better than actual warfare. I would have loved if Russia decided to wage an economic war against my country, Ukraine, instead of literally sending troops, artillery, and missiles.
Economic pressure is an effective way of limiting one's political power, and I would not want to see a world where China becomes #1 over the US, even though I am fully aware that the US has serious human rights issues.
Inflation in the US is managed really well, it's usually well within 5%. The case of the EU is more complex, but I also believe that the hardest time was in 2022.
I don't think inflation will rise, and I'm not even sure that radical Trump will make things worse with China, to be honest. Let's not forget that a part of 'America first' and MAGA is focusing on internal politics and what's profitable for the US citizens, after all.

[el kaka22]

It is a tactic for anyone who would like to destroy democracy, because it has been proven to work. If you make people quite hungry, like really poor, poorer than they ever been, they will look for a leader to save them, meaning that they will not see President position as someone who is their worker, because it's a public position and you appoint him and then you could get rid of him if he does badly, but if he is a hero then you can't get rid of him, people will demand more and more from them and will see them as their saviour.

So, if you make radical changes like this, increase the inflation, cause trouble, then they will live a bad life, then you throw the reason to other side and say you could have done better if the other side didn't stop everything you do, then they will end up trusting you. This is what Trump is doing, ruining the nation, and telling the nation that democrats are ruining it, and there are a lot of republicans that believed it last time, not enough to get him reelected though, people didn't buy into his lies.

However, his luck is that Trump is racing against another candidate, who literally can't walk, easiest win of anyone's life ever I assume, hence why it looks like he will have another chance.

[electronicash]

The US has data at display:
https://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/balance/c5700.html  

That shows the trade size and the trade deficit US has. None of it has anything to do with the discussion here!

is the Saudi still aggressive toward the Yemeni government?

Yes they are. The blockade still continues and the cease fire terms have been violated multiple times by the Arab-US coalition.

the Chinese government has already made agreed to be peaceful between Saudi and Iran. this will only put them in chaos again and this time, the Saudis are unsure if the US forces will come to the rescue because of the PetroUSD discontinuation.

As I always say the damage Trump did to America is yet to be realized by Americans. He isolated USA more than ever, he not only pushed away allies (NATO and others) but also pushed colonies and dependent dictatorships like Saudi family away.

Remember that when the Armed Forces of Yemen started their series of retaliations against their invaders, Trump was in office and the US regime didn't come to their rescue back then either. At that time not only Saudi infrastructure like Aramco went up in smokes but also US military bases in Arabia went under attack.

This is one of the reasons why the Saudi regime has been distancing itself from US (selling oil in Yuan, discontinuation of Petrodollar, cutting oil production to keep price up despite US demands, making deals with Russia and China, etc.). They finally realized that the US regime only wants to use them for their oil and care about nothing else and most importantly the US military is not even capable of protecting them as we saw it back then and we are seeing it today in the Red Sea how the US Navy is being easily attacked and incapacitated like USS Dwight D. Eisenhower that had to be brought back home due to the damages it took.

it could be true that the peace agreement between Saudi and Iran doesn't involve Yemen. while the Houtis are busy fighting IDF, Saudi is also busy disrupting the Yemenis. somehow the House of Saud just can't be trusted to stay put. if all hell breaks lose, Iran could rain down armaments on this country.

Trump along with his vice supporting the war in the Middle East, will make the war worse, especially the Ukraine-Russia war. after all their political difference, his policy regarding war may still be no different from Biden's.

[pooya87]

I don't think inflation will rise, and I'm not even sure that radical Trump will make things worse with China, to be honest. Let's not forget that a part of 'America first' and MAGA is focusing on internal politics and what's profitable for the US citizens, after all.

Well it's been about the American Dream, the Land of Opportunity and all that. That requires a healthy economy as well, an economy where the middle class can work normal amount and get paid enough to have a normal life instead of working their asses off and be up to their necks in debt because the US economy has turned from a production based economy into a debt based economy and finally into what it is today, a Ponzi scheme.

To do that and actually Make America Great they need to start the factories again, to start production, to help the middle class. This is not about some internal politics, and it's not a Trump thing either (he is just more radical about it). They've all been trying to do this and failing because Capitalism and Liberalism ruined America a long time ago. Everything is for maximum profit and to maximize profit you cannot produce anything inside America.

They always try the craziest solutions as well. I already mentioned the tariff wars, another thing is the child labor laws which they've been silently loosening and we may not be that far from seeing American sweatshops with child workers.
Here's another food for thought: Have you ever wondered why unlike majority of the world in the 21st century, American women are being paid less than men?!!

Trump along with his vice supporting the war in the Middle East, will make the war worse, especially the Ukraine-Russia war.

These two will definitely make a lot of things a lot more complicated and I wouldn't be surprised to see a lot more wars if he wins.

[WillyAp]

That shows the trade size and the trade deficit US has. None of it has anything to do with the discussion here!

So does the image in the opener post.

The tittle is US-China economy war + radical Trump = higher inflation + interest rates + war
Most conspiracy fans take data from where its most convenient to strengthen their theories.
Their thought process makes them fall easier for fake info.

[pooya87]

China's biggest strength is its biggest weakness as well

I was looking at some stats and I realized that the economic growth that China has been reporting (~5% GDP growth) is mostly based on their exports not domestic economy expanding. In other words the demand for Chinese goods by Chinese people isn't really increasing.

OP is mainly about what others do and the effects on them. But on the side of China, I see two major issues as well.

First is that since their economic growth now mainly depends on exports, a tariff war could seriously restrain it and that could have significant effects on inflation in China itself.
To counter that it seems like the Chinese government is responding by trying to switch trade partners and export destinations. How much that would work depends on how many countries are going to join in the tariff war against China. It also cannot be predicted right now because a lot of the countries that we know are going to participate in that war are increasing their imports from China because their businessmen know what's coming so they are trying to import as much as they can before tariffs go up!
So we have to wait and see what happens in the long run.

Second is that China is also going to retaliate against that war. They'll do that by imposing their own tariffs on goods they buy from those countries. For example China is the biggest meat importer and they buy a lot of it from Europe and one of the tariffs they usually increase is on meat from there.
That means pretty much the same thing I said in OP: inflation in China and like always it's just the regular people would be hurt...

conspiracy

In other words you had no logical arguments for or against the subject.

[WillyAp]

Most conspiracy fans take data from where its most convenient to strengthen their theories.

In other words you had no logical arguments for or against the subject.

I allowed myself to set the entire sentence into the quote to take the polemic out and make it a debate.
If you ever have past through a Conspiracy based debate you'd know that they don't use facts.

[Ozero]

Another way they've always used to control inflation is to bring down energy prices (remember Petrodollar).
In order to do that they'll have to increase the supply of oil in the global market.
To do that they need to (1) remove sanctions on Russia and let that oil flow again (2) convince Arab dictators to increase their production (3) end the wars in West Asia so that security comes back and they can actually increase production (remember Saudi invasion of Yemen is in a ceasefire state and not ended).

There is a good chance that the next US president will be able to fulfill #1 by ending the NATO-Russian war (possibly recognizing occupied parts as Russia) as there are enough signals coming out from US making me confident about that possibility. Trump will probably have an easier time doing that because of his radical decisions.

It is foolish to hope that the United States and Europe will lift sanctions from Russia after they saw that the war in Ukraine has greatly weakened the Russian economy and there is a good opportunity to put the squeeze on the aggressor and throw him out of the list of influential world powers.

Putin can hardly count on Trump either. American politician and head of the district branch of the Republican Party for the 45th district of the New York State Assembly Boris Pincus said on the Kiev24 channel that, according to available information, Trump may offer Putin to leave the occupied territories of Ukraine in a specific short period of time. Otherwise, he “will simply say that he will be forced to give... ultra-modern types of weapons that no one has ever received abroad, but Ukraine will receive in unlimited quantities so that it can simply forcefully throw these barbarians out of the borders of 1991.” “This will be Trump’s plan,” the politician emphasized.
https://www.unian.net/war/voyna-v-ukraine-kakoy-ultimatum-putinu-svetit-ot-trampa-12710139.html

And the chances that Trump will return to the presidency are falling after Biden’s decision not to run for president for the next term. Now the likely Democratic candidate in this election, current US Vice President Kamala Harris, is confidently gaining support and information is already emerging that she is ahead of Trump in terms of support from US voters and influential individuals. But if Kamala Harris becomes the next president of the United States, then Putin’s Russia will clearly not be happy with regard to the war of aggression in Ukraine.

[pooya87]

American politician and head of the district branch of the Republican Party for the 45th district of the New York State Assembly Boris Pincus

A lot of others advertising Trump have been saying this exact thing as well because in this campaign when the opponent (Democrats) are saying they'll help Ukraine and Trump won't, the Republicans have to do something about it and say they'll help but in a different way.

Otherwise, he “will simply say that he will be forced to give... ultra-modern types of weapons that no one has ever received abroad, but Ukraine will receive in unlimited quantities

Obviously this is not likely for a couple of reasons.

For starters US doesn't have "ultra-modern weapons". They only have Ultra-Expensive weapons that are less shitty than what they're giving Ukraine. Unfortunately those won't change the outcome of this war either. Ukraine suffers from both manpower and firepower and US can not fix either one.
Besides, certain things will never be given to Ukraine considering how a large number of those weapons are being sold on blackmarkets... So when you say "weapons nobody has received aboard" there's a reason for that (they don't want it to fall into the hands of the adversaries). If they send those to Ukraine, in a short time they will

Secondly Trump's stance has always been the same. Both in his first term and now. He is all about that America first nonsense and in this context it means not giving more weapons to others including Ukraine. What he has done and will do is to force others like Europeans to give more weapons to Ukraine and we already know that they can't give any more than this either!

He also wants to focus on China, not Russia. Considering United States (not just Trump) doesn't care at all about Ukraine, they'd rather see it end and start the war with China than see it continue AND start a secondary war (with China). They can't fight a multi-theatre war. Escalating more with Russia would push China into invading Taiwan and open that new theatre.

[Ozero]

Besides, certain things will never be given to Ukraine considering how a large number of those weapons are being sold on blackmarkets... So when you say "weapons nobody has received aboard" there's a reason for that (they don't want it to fall into the hands of the adversaries). If they send those to Ukraine, in a short time they will

Russia deliberately spreads false information that Ukraine sells weapons on the black market that are supplied to it by European countries and the United States. This is being done to ensure that weapons are not transferred to Ukraine to defend against a Russian attack, or at least to reduce the assistance provided. Thus, the former head of the Russian Ministry of Defense, Shoigu, without providing any evidence, stated that weapons from Ukraine end up on the black market and are distributed in Western Asian countries.

Earlier, Pentagon Speaker Patrick Ryder noted that the United States does not have any reliable information that Ukraine is reselling Western weapons. The US Department of Defense has repeatedly stated that it sees no signs that Western weapons are being misused: “We do not track weapons. We know that the Ukrainians are using the weapons we provided to them, and we have seen no indication that these weapons have gone anywhere other than to fight the Russians."

EU Foreign and Security Policy Speaker Peter Stano noted back in July 2022 that information about Ukraine’s alleged resale of Western weapons is Russian propaganda. According to him, Russia is waging a disinformation campaign against Ukraine, the EU and NATO to justify its crimes, mislead people around the world and manipulate facts.

Previously, disinformation was also spread about the alleged smuggling of weapons from Ukraine to Finland. However, in response to the Ukrainian embassy in Helsinki, the Finnish police reported that they did not have confirmed information about the supply of smuggled weapons from Ukraine.

Russian media massively disseminated fake news that users from Ukraine are reselling weapons on the darknet. BBC journalists investigated and found that the advertisements were false.
https://voxukraine.org/ru/bezosnovatelno-zapadnoe-oruzhye-yz-ukrayny-popadaet-v-terrorystycheskye-organyzatsyy

If you have facts that Ukraine sells Western weapons supplied to it on the black market, bring them and we’ll discuss it.

[pooya87]

If you have facts that Ukraine sells Western weapons supplied to it on the black market, bring them and we’ll discuss it.

I don't care what US or Russian officials say. The said weapons have been seen elsewhere, which is my facts.
It's irrelevant here though because it doesn't change anything else I said about the subject of this topic.

[WillyAp]

I don't care what US or Russian officials say. The said weapons have been seen elsewhere, which is my facts.

Present the link where those weapons a seen. Otherwise it is just fake info,

[FanEagle]

I believe that with Trump we may actually get something more calm, feels like he isn't type of person who would run into war, and while a lot of people think that he wants war, he wants total control in the USA as his first order of business, not war.

Having a war within is a lot more important for him, and it feels like adding Russia or China to that wouldn't be smart. Think about it, if he goes into an economical war against China, that would cause a lot of prices to go up, since a lot of stuff comes from China, and that means people will be paying more, so inflation would go up, and someone who wants to rule a nation until they die, it is not a smart move to make inflation go up. That is why I believe that we are going to end up with a lot of unlikely results here.

War is the last thing on his mind, and high inflation is something he will try very hard to avoid. What he will focus on is to make sure he rigs elections as much as he possibly could, and fill the courts even further, and maybe even make SC filled with even more republicans if anyone retires or dies, so that's a big deal. I think it is going to be very important to get that power, otherwise if he loses, it will be very tough for rest of his life.

[pooya87]

Having a war within is a lot more important for him, and it feels like adding Russia or China to that wouldn't be smart. Think about it, if he goes into an economical war against China, that would cause a lot of prices to go up, since a lot of stuff comes from China, and that means people will be paying more, so inflation would go up, and someone who wants to rule a nation until they die, it is not a smart move to make inflation go up. That is why I believe that we are going to end up with a lot of unlikely results here.

Who said Trump or the US regime in general is smart?!

You see, some fundamental strategies don't change based on who is in the office. Check out the the National Security Strategy that the Whitehouse releases or the Annual Threat Assessment that the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (dni.gov) publishes. They are always the same.

In this case, basically the US regime has always seen any nation that is growing in strength (economical or otherwise) as a threat. To normal people and normal countries, that makes no sense and it is stupid. But that is how United States has always worked.
They see Chinese economy growing faster and is currently stronger than the US economy so the regime sees it as a threat and says they have to "destroy China" because of it!

Now with different presidents, the strategies and the radicalism may change but not the main attitude. As I said for example Trump started the Tariff War and Biden continued it. You see, there is no change. The only difference was that Trump did it more radically.

[pooya87]

China And The Weasel Doctrine

China seems to be feeling the threat I explained here more every day and they are doing what has worked in the past which is a "weasel like" strategy. This has been the Chinese strategy for a very long time. It was the most palpable during the US-USSR Cold War, as they worked like a weasel between two sides and played both sides for maximum benefits. They built their nukes, they built their economy and generally got stronger specially by "milking" United States.

Once again Chinse government seems to think there is a war between US (NATO) and Russia and is using the same strategy. Play with both sides to maximize benefits. Tryin to milk both sides to get stronger.
This is probably why China has been dragging feet on Power of Siberia pipeline and other economic relations they have with Russia. It is as if they are once again putting pressure on Russia to get better deals (while doing the same with the NATO side as well).

But the problem this time is that US regime's main war is not with Russia, it is instead with China! They may be fighting a proxy war with the Russians right now but their focus is still on China. Something that will get worse with Trump and  seems to be understanding this more every day.
This is why all of a sudden Xi Jinping is picking up the phone after 2 years to communicate with the English PM Starmer (they've changed 4 PMs since the Ukraine war began! Talk about political instability, eh) and talks about "long-term and strategic view" the two countries should have. And he makes similar contacts with the French and the Germans. Remember in OP I said this time US is trying to get the Europeans on board? That is what Xi Jinping is trying to negate...

Things are definitely getting weird in the world as the coalitions keep "shuffling".

Russia is responding as well. This is why the Indian PM Modi is visiting Russia and the two countries get closer and while on the front it is all peace talks in the media, it runs deeper than that. It is the same "strategic view" that Xi Jinping is trying to build elsewhere.

Will the "weasel doctrine" work this time?
The chances are too low because as I said US regime's enemy number one is China so they can't just keep hiding in the shadows and on the side line feeding on conflicts elsewhere.
Europe is unlikely to save them as well. They're dealing with too many problems with their far rights and if Trump loses they lose the main incentive to work with China as well since this is all because of their fear of Trumps anti-EU and NATO policies.

At some point China has to make a more solid stance, instead of putting pressure on one side (eg. preventing BRICS currency).

BTW the US regime is hitting Chinese projects harder these days. Specifically the Belt and Road thing. Proving once again that their enemy number one is China and it is an economic war.
For example as the one of the branches of that corridor that goes through Pakistan and Iran is growing, in the past week the US proxies are carrying out terrorist attacks in the regions inside these two countries. The Jaish ul-Adl terrorists are hitting Iran as the BLA terrorists are hitting Pakistan.