Bitcoin going down? Keep calm and...

[verdun2003]

Bubble June 2011






Bubble April 2013






Bubble December 2013






Royalty knows, we know best

[bubbagumpshrimp]

Bubbles gonna burst

[khjghki44f]

The downward trend more and more obvious, and would be thrown quickly.

[TaunSew]

There is a theoretical limit on the availability of new investors, people don't want to make the whales rich and more importantly no one wants to be left holding the bag.

 

[roslinpl]

HODL! keep calm indeed...

Panic time started I know ... but soon it will be gone.

[tvbcof]

I'm more interested in the amount of time we need to wait for the next 'bubble' (if any) after the bottom is put in.  After the 2011 spike it took almost a year IIRC.  The late 2013 spike started not long after the early 2013 low however.

Bitcoin is not the best vehicle for producing predictable cash-flow, but it's positive attributes (esp, the ability to produce 100x profits) are more than making up for this deficiency so I'm not complaining.

[Beliathon]

I'm hoping it comes all the way down to 300, cause 10 BTC at 3k is a helluva deal!!

[roslinpl]

I'm hoping it comes all the way down to 300, cause 10 BTC at 3k is a helluva deal!!

Better if price will not drop to 300$ ... but I wish all buyers that - just for Bitcoin community and for all those panic makers it would be a hard time for a while then...

[Jacko]

I'm hoping that as it is low now a surge of BTC buyers will kick in to get cheap BTC and then drive the price back up.

[roslinpl]

I like this thread : https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=548544.0

it is very optimistic you should all give a look at this

[arepo]

I like this thread : https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=548544.0

it is very optimistic you should all give a look at this

unfortunately, we've already violated this particular pattern with the recent bearish price action. no other pennant has seen its bottom support tested three times, and many mid-term and long-term indicators are showing unprecedented bear signals. it is a decent model, but the present pattern has definitely differentiated itself from past performance in that way. i would think that suggests that the standard bubble resolution paradigm that this image portrays is therefore less applicable to the present price action.

--arepo

[segeln]

I like this thread : https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=548544.0

it is very optimistic you should all give a look at this

unfortunately, we've already violated this particular pattern with the recent bearish price action.

fortunately it was only an intraday (more ore less) Violation

http://www.cryptocoinsnews.com/2014/03/30/btc-e-opens-chinese-markets-chinese-traders-chnusd-chnbtc-chnltc/

[dnaleor]

unfortunately, we've already violated this particular pattern with the recent bearish price action. no other pennant has seen its bottom support tested three times, and many mid-term and long-term indicators are showing unprecedented bear signals. it is a decent model, but the present pattern has definitely differentiated itself from past performance in that way. i would think that suggests that the standard bubble resolution paradigm that this image portrays is therefore less applicable to the present price action.

--arepo

the reason of the second testing of the low @400 USD was gox. it was a flash crash and does not fit in this pattern. All second testing of the bottom was slow. I would say the current testing of the 400 USD area is the second "real" low.

[Le Happy Merchant]

There is a theoretical limit on the availability of new investors, people don't want to make the whales rich and more importantly no one wants to be left holding the bag.

I hope you realize how preposterously stupid this sounds. (at this moment)

[keithers]

There is a theoretical limit on the availability of new investors, people don't want to make the whales rich and more importantly no one wants to be left holding the bag.

 

I am more than comfortable holding the bag for awhile. I am up significantly on my early btc, but down a lot on more recent purchases. I will still continue throwing money at it while it remains low. People selling off now are just making the gap between large and small holders bigger and bigger

[arepo]

unfortunately, we've already violated this particular pattern with the recent bearish price action. no other pennant has seen its bottom support tested three times, and many mid-term and long-term indicators are showing unprecedented bear signals. it is a decent model, but the present pattern has definitely differentiated itself from past performance in that way. i would think that suggests that the standard bubble resolution paradigm that this image portrays is therefore less applicable to the present price action.

the reason of the second testing of the low @400 USD was gox. it was a flash crash and does not fit in this pattern. All second testing of the bottom was slow. I would say the current testing of the 400 USD area is the second "real" low.

i would actually agree, and was just working with the model presented. my original pennant model, based off of this same pattern, had a lower price support at $530, which was extremely robust (many points of contact) with only two violations that were intraday and which i considered outliers. hence, why the break under this price support on Wednesday was and is very bearish. the market seems to agree, as we have seen steady selling pressure since.

[galbros]

Thanks for at least presenting some data to go along with your assertions.

I like the keep calm meme.

Good Luck!

[segeln]

[Swordsoffreedom]

Honestly this is just Deja Vu for me or so last year
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NG1qooBzE2w

Just listen to Zhou tong insert the time period and think of last year
Pretty much a repeat for some reason

[Bit_Happy]

There is a theoretical limit on the availability of new investors, people don't want to make the whales rich and more importantly no one wants to be left holding the bag.

 

The old whales are already rich and we are down well over 50% so you will not be holding the bag.