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Author Topic: Is your win a function of luck or how much you know a sports?  (Read 1166 times)
Yucky (OP)
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July 30, 2024, 09:59:07 AM
 #1

I tried out something while I was watching some games in the ongoing Olympics and this is what I did;

I looked out for sports I wasn't conversant with the athletes and didn't  know who was better at the sports and did a random prediction on the outcome of the game. I did it for swimming competition and some random boxing yesterday and out of up to 7 predictions I made, almost 6 went the way I predicted it.

It reminds me of writing an objective examination in high school and when you're done with the questions you're certain of, and you just do some random selections and luck could shine on you and you get up to 70% from your rough prediction.

I have not tried this in real games that involves using money but would want to know if anyone has ever tried it before.

Have you ever placed a bet by just doing random guesses on the outcome of the game?

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July 30, 2024, 10:32:55 AM
 #2

From the title of your thread, I'll say that win most times in sport depends on how well you know the game and the players. I don't think it would be wise to place bets on random sports without even know any thing about them. You might end up making too much losses. You were lucky as your predictions went well. But in reality it wouldn't be wise to take such bets. In sports bets you have to understand the game, which would in turn enable to make good strategy to place your bets and wins.

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July 30, 2024, 10:33:29 AM
 #3

Have you ever placed a bet by just doing random guesses on the outcome of the game?
I remember the first matches that I bet on many years ago which was my first bet. I did not know about football but I just bet on it. I did not look for any analyses but I just select a team to win and I won it. I was new to betting and later I know it was luck and I stopped doing that when I know more about analysing matches.  Although I went for the team that has the lower odd. But if you analyze the game, it is still about luck but the chance to win will likely increase than randomly selecting.

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July 30, 2024, 10:41:28 AM
 #4

~
Have tried it before, some ended well, some didn't. It's honestly all fun and games until you, well, lose. In a streak. Has happened to like twice before and after that 2nd time, I just stopped doing streaks of random guesses. I just did it once or twice every now and then and if I lose, I start thinking again. It's just really frustrating how a random bet could've been decided a LOT better if I'd given time to it. Even without knowing the sport that much, researching about the team is ultimately better than not no?

Granted it doesn't increase your chances BUT it does give you the satisfaction of you trying your best. Doesn't really work in normal casino games, that things just pure luck but in sports, stuff can be swayed that way.

 
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July 30, 2024, 01:04:00 PM
 #5

It's too risky to place a bet purely based on random guesses you've made and apart from games like virtual that are purely prediction based and not affected by analysis, checking out factors like the strength, weakness and the calibars of athletes that are competing in a game helps you make a better and an informed decision as a gambler.

Even with your analysis, you still need to check out other people's point of view who might be more experienced than you're.  The only time when I can comfortably make rough prediction is when I'm just catching fun and cruise with friends and we just want to try that out to see who's more lucky with random prediction but that's never to be seen as a strategy that you can use as your betting strategy and expect that it will work that way for the multiples of times you will have to make your gamble. Let's assume you've got two teams you're familiar with playing in a major soccer tournament, would you rather choose to randomly choose a weaker team from a less competitive league to win against a stronger and more tougher team?

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July 30, 2024, 01:10:33 PM
 #6


I looked out for sports I wasn't conversant with the athletes and didn't  know who was better at the sports and did a random prediction on the outcome of the game. I did it for swimming competition and some random boxing yesterday and out of up to 7 predictions I made, almost 6 went the way I predicted it.

I have not tried this in real games that involves using money but would want to know if anyone has ever tried it before.
Have you ever placed a bet by just doing random guesses on the outcome of the game?

I do it sometimes, and that is when I'm comfortable with whatever outcome; gambling is a game of chance, and if you're betting on a sport and you prefer doing it randomly, don't expect a good result. If the results are good, then be happy because luck is on your side. However, luck will not be always on your side, so it's better that you still do an analysis.
When it comes to sports betting, betting with analysis is fun, and you have more satisfaction doing that than betting it on random.

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July 30, 2024, 01:24:13 PM
 #7

Well it depends on what you are betting for because if you have more choices it would be hard but if you are just betting on who wins between two opponents I think it is quite a better chance compared to really knowing the sport they are competing at.

Having said this, I think it is important to see how you could improve your chances and knowing the game is better than knowing nothing. You could win, but it’s not always going to be the best outcome and in the end you might say that “oh I should’ve done my best.”

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July 30, 2024, 01:36:44 PM
 #8


Have you ever placed a bet by just doing random guesses on the outcome of the game?

Even if you know the sports, there will come a time when you will use random guesses. Sometimes, it is fun doing that, preferring luck to play its course in your bets.

Especially if you exhaust your analysis and it's dead even on both teams or fighters, when I was betting in horse racing, I just picked based on tips or, in an extreme case, a tossed coin and let luck play its course. Betting with analysis is very satisfying if you accurately predict the game, but it's surprisingly fun if you bet randomly and hit it.

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July 30, 2024, 01:42:34 PM
 #9

I tried out something while I was watching some games in the ongoing Olympics and this is what I did;

I looked out for sports I wasn't conversant with the athletes and didn't  know who was better at the sports and did a random prediction on the outcome of the game. I did it for swimming competition and some random boxing yesterday and out of up to 7 predictions I made, almost 6 went the way I predicted it.

Good for you, even if you are not that well versed with that athletes and the sports, you almost made a perfect prediction. Not sure if this is your first time to bet, but it could be beginners luck.

It reminds me of writing an objective examination in high school and when you're done with the questions you're certain of, and you just do some random selections and luck could shine on you and you get up to 70% from your rough prediction.

I have not tried this in real games that involves using money but would want to know if anyone has ever tried it before.

Have you ever placed a bet by just doing random guesses on the outcome of the game?

It could be just luck on your side when you pick your chooses as you have said, you don't have knowledge or that sports. And with that, might be hard to duplicate it, I mean luck comes to everyone, but it could be just a one time deal. So I would suggest that you shouldn't be depending on luck if you are going to do sports betting. You really need to know the sports team that you are betting in my opinion.

Yeah, early in my career did some random betting and it was hit. However, as I have said, I was not able to reproduce that kind of winning run so I guess it's just about the randomness and luck on my side.

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July 30, 2024, 01:45:05 PM
 #10

Have you ever placed a bet by just doing random guesses on the outcome of the game?
Yea I have done so severally and it works but the chances doesn't usually come %80 to %100, it's always 50/100, 30/100 and 40/100 the chances are slim. But although there was this one game that I nearly won but it lost by one game. So what am saying in essence is that random game selection is always risky due to High chances of impossibilities. I have equally selected high odd games when I know it's not possible to win with such high odd against the small one. Though sometimes big odd risky game may play but the chances may be slim but if you are dam lucky that week, and the high odd game plays, then you will count yourself one of the lucky winners.

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July 30, 2024, 01:56:13 PM
 #11

Is your win a function of luck or how much you know a sports?
On average, 85% of people in the world understand the world of sports, even though they cannot play these sports, sports are generally known by the wider community, if asked to talk, maybe they are smarter with players, whether it's football, basketball, volleyball, boxing and so on.

Talking about the level of knowledge of a gambler and a fanatic, the level is different, gamblers do analysis, predictions and new information about the sport every day, I feel that, talking about luck, I have to say yes, no matter how great we have sports science, no one can predict what happens on the field correctly and accurately, so for me it is clear that unexpected things can happen, that is if you say betting, winning and losing is a difficult part of gambling.

Have you ever placed a bet by just doing random guesses on the outcome of the game?
Often, there are those who are lucky and also those who have bad luck, even though they are experts at gambling.

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July 30, 2024, 02:17:47 PM
 #12

Once guessing a random game resulted in 50/50 in the bet I made.

You guess random matches that do not involve money of course the choice will be easier but when you involve money for bets I'm sure you will be more selective in choosing the team to win, sometimes there is also a little tense but if you know the sport it will be better than choosing randomly.

I don't make many bets on matches that I don't understand, I prefer football sports betting as long as I have the knowledge then I can bet on it.

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July 30, 2024, 02:54:56 PM
 #13

Have you ever placed a bet by just doing random guesses on the outcome of the game?
I remember the first matches that I bet on many years ago which was my first bet. I did not know about football but I just bet on it. I did not look for any analyses but I just select a team to win and I won it. I was new to betting and later I know it was luck and I stopped doing that when I know more about analysing matches.  Although I went for the team that has the lower odd. But if you analyze the game, it is still about luck but the chance to win will likely increase than randomly selecting.
Like seriously I still bet in that line of betting where I just chose a team to win without any form of analysis of the team and their players, although I use to lose on a couple of time, but then I win more since I just don't rely on my luck to win, I but also I choose the bets carefully, and I let say that when I want to take such bet in sport most especially football, I normally go for live sports and the match should be bet according to the winning team, but what I mean is that I choose the team that is already winning as my preferred so with that my chances are higher to win.

Sometimes it pays to bet in that line of betting since football games are full with unpredictable outcome, so if you chose live game, you you be more confident of the winning.

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July 30, 2024, 02:59:59 PM
 #14

Have you ever placed a bet by just doing random guesses on the outcome of the game?
You can become a victim of overthinking or overanalyzing. That is a burden that comes with knowledge.

When you randomly make a bet in a sport that you have no knowledge about, that is taking a risk and giving all your chances to luck, which may smile at you in some situations but not in all situations.

That is why there is something called "beginners luck" when you are trying something for the first time.

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July 30, 2024, 03:01:31 PM
 #15

It reminds me of writing an objective examination in high school and when you're done with the questions you're certain of, and you just do some random selections and luck could shine on you and you get up to 70% from your rough prediction.
If you do random selection, it means the chance from your prediction is 50%.

Random is completely depend on luck, same like you pick the athletes in Olympic games.

Understand the sports and familiar with the players or teams will increase the chance of your winning because you can value the teams/players with the odds and possibility to win.

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July 30, 2024, 03:09:19 PM
 #16

Both luck and your knowledge joined are what determines your winning rate, you must be an enlighten sports person because you need some stats to make your predictions, as no one controls the outcome of any game even the players, the teams, the coaches, and even the referee, none of them can predict the outcome of any given match, rather we Forecast base on previous and current statistics we have in hand that help us to make a choice of teams when betting in sports bet.

 
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July 30, 2024, 03:14:09 PM
 #17

Betting (a single bet) on many matches at once is already wrong, especially betting with random picks like that.
I'm not saying that the OP will definitely keep losing by placing bets like that, but in the long term it is certain that he will lose.
For me luck is the most important and absolute thing when gambling and knowledge about sports can increase our chances of winning.
Anyway, there is no problem if OP bet on many matches with random picks like that only for fun, but it's not wise to make it as your long-term strategy when gamble on sports.

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July 30, 2024, 03:17:52 PM
 #18

Certain games are more dependent on luck and other ones are more depending on ability. In the case of chess, it is all ability; in poker and blackjack (specially poker) ability plays a great role, but chance is still important to some extent. And on the contrary, games like lottery or slots are 100% dependent on chance.

In the case of sports betting I think that, although knowledge can help, it is not key to win or lose, and it is mainly based on luck. We all heard about people who knew nothing about sports and became millionaire because of pure luck.

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July 30, 2024, 03:20:41 PM
 #19

I tried out something while I was watching some games in the ongoing Olympics and this is what I did;

I looked out for sports I wasn't conversant with the athletes and didn't  know who was better at the sports and did a random prediction on the outcome of the game. I did it for swimming competition and some random boxing yesterday and out of up to 7 predictions I made, almost 6 went the way I predicted it.

It reminds me of writing an objective examination in high school and when you're done with the questions you're certain of, and you just do some random selections and luck could shine on you and you get up to 70% from your rough prediction.

I have not tried this in real games that involves using money but would want to know if anyone has ever tried it before.

Have you ever placed a bet by just doing random guesses on the outcome of the game?
In the past, I had experience betting (with money) on the outcome of a sports match (soccer) based on a random guess (that one team would be stronger and win). And believe it or not, my bet ended up being a loser. So, at that moment, it turned out that my loss was a result of luck (or rather, not luck).Smiley
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July 30, 2024, 03:35:57 PM
 #20

Have you ever placed a bet by just doing random guesses on the outcome of the game?

Nope. I would rather be placing bets on the bookmaker's favorite team and multibet them for 3 matches at least for a small amount than guessing. I have somehow done it for years even in some sports that I have not been following. Sometimes I win and sometimes not but it's fun to do than baseless bets.  This has been like a strategy for some time but of course, risky especially if you are just doing it to gamble.

But this is why the majority will simply just stick to the sports they know. It takes a while to get to know the sports especially if you are not really into it.

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