Finding Value ( sports betting)

[Akbarkoe]

I read an article that says in order to win in sports betting in the long run, we need to find value before making a bet. This means we don't need to bet on all the games available because we can't find value in all of them. Since it requires careful analysis based on the information available, it's impossible to analyze every game available for betting. Therefore, it's important to limit the number of bets and make sure that all the bets we make are well-studied so we can come out ahead in the long run.

If you believe in this, from your personal perspective, how do you find value?

This is like a core point in finding a much greater probability of winning or can be said as your language is “Value”, I agree with this because we should not gamble only according to the availability of matches to bet on.

This may work if we have found the value and the chances of winning in the long run will be greater, but maybe this will only happen in single gambling such as betting on one match or two only, because we have limited time in analyzing, too many sources and other things that are limited in analyzing in depth, this may not be useful for parlay gambling, where we have to bet on many matches and even if we don't find value in some teams in some matches we still have to bet.

[Davidvictorson]

Finding value in sports betting is a factor that can only be ascertain with careful analysis, responsible gambling, and luck, of which thou these three factors plays an important role, the total number of game odds been gambled upon also plays a major role into leveraging the risk factor involved, because one thing I have noticed about gambling is that the higher the odds, the more riskier it becomes, which is why if you truly want to have value in gambling, it's always advisable to reduce the amount of Sport game combo you gamble on.

Finding value is for the real gamblers and not the spontaneous or impulsive gambler because it takes effort to do the calculations of the odds and probability for whether they'll win or not. One other thing that I have noticed about it is that, the value differs from one sports book to another.  For example while one book odd may give a higher payout more that the winning probability,  the other's odd may not be as high.

[Nwada001]

If you believe in this, from your personal perspective, how do you find value?

I also agree on that too, and to fine-value what I do is to analyse the both teams on which I want to place a bet on what they have to defend and what they plan to obtain. 
 
Let's take, for instance, a finishing league in which a particular team has only one match to win in order to top the league, and the other one might be playing to win in order not to be dropped out. I check their strengths from previous games and how they perform. By so doing, I can be able to pick out who I'm to bet on.

[nelson4lov]

Value could be anything. The easiest way to find out these "values" is simply to just analyze only the games you are interested in and analyze them rather than try indulging in unfamiliar territory by including teams in your selections that you know little to nothing about. Also there are instances you want to ask yourself some really good question like if you selected a team to win outright, you need to answer the "why" to confirm your conviction. If you can explain why you have such conviction, then you can double down. But if there's at least 10% doubt, It's best to just steer clear.

For instance? Can Man United pull a surprise tomorrow and beat Liverpool? For me, it's not a 100% so I won't be placing a bet on it.

[ChiBitCTy]

This is definitely something I struggle with from time to time.  My “bread and butter” when it comes to gambling as well as sports betting, is gambling on NFL games. Every week I have a certain budget I’ll allow myself to use to place bets, and sometimes I just can’t find enough games that I like, and I’ve caught myself betting on other games I normally wouldn’t have, and that’s certainly not good. I’ve gotten better with this though.

Moral of the story, don’t push your bets.

[348Judah]

I read an article that says in order to win in sports betting in the long run, we need to find value before making a bet. This means we don't need to bet on all the games available because we can't find value in all of them.

Placing value in gambling games or sport betting depends on many factors which i will be mentioning some here.

1. It may have to depend on the experience the gambler has towards gambling in deciding for the kind of bet and strategy to use when gambling.

2. The nature of the game or sport we are playing could also be another reason on why we do place value over it, some of us will prefer going after what we know and have interest on.

[bangjoe]

If you believe in this, from your personal perspective, how do you find value?

I also agree on that too, and to fine-value what I do is to analyse the both teams on which I want to place a bet on what they have to defend and what they plan to obtain. 
 
Let's take, for instance, a finishing league in which a particular team has only one match to win in order to top the league, and the other one might be playing to win in order not to be dropped out. I check their strengths from previous games and how they perform. By so doing, I can be able to pick out who I'm to bet on.

If with one factor I think it's too common, and the victory can already be seen clearly, and maybe that can be said to be a value to be able to get a victory?

But what if the match is against a team that is both strong and from the H2H history they are balanced, and the two teams you know thoroughly and even become a favorite to bet, but at the same time they meet, if we want to get the value in a situation like that it might be difficult, and even if we manage to conclude it will be very doubtful, will you still bet?

[swogerino]

I read an article that says in order to win in sports betting in the long run, we need to find value before making a bet. This means we don't need to bet on all the games available because we can't find value in all of them. Since it requires careful analysis based on the information available, it's impossible to analyze every game available for betting. Therefore, it's important to limit the number of bets and make sure that all the bets we make are well-studied so we can come out ahead in the long run.

If you believe in this, from your personal perspective, how do you find value?

I once tried to study from all weekends games during September-May period of a soccer season as most Championships are played there and I mean in Europe including all of them like Romania,Moldova,Denmark,Norway,Bulgaria and many others. I thought that betting on less well known leagues would give me an edge as everybody else was playing the top 5 major leagues and in there surprises do happen almost every weekend if not all weekends and in fact in the beginning I was right. I was betting heavily on Fc Kopenhagen and Steaua Bucharest during that time and I used to win all my multi tickets that included these two teams, then all of a sudden even these well known leagues now don't have value but yes that is the way I find value in soccer betting, go hunt for less known events and do a thorough analysis about them, Internet helps a lot in this context with a simple google search as AI is not well trained yet to give soccer analysis.

[KTChampions]

I read an article that says in order to win in sports betting in the long run, we need to find value before making a bet. This means we don't need to bet on all the games available because we can't find value in all of them. Since it requires careful analysis based on the information available, it's impossible to analyze every game available for betting. Therefore, it's important to limit the number of bets and make sure that all the bets we make are well-studied so we can come out ahead in the long run.

If you believe in this, from your personal perspective, how do you find value?

Game analysis and other nonsense does not work - the bookmaker has better analysts and more data so that his analysis is better than yours. It seems to me that now it is possible to find value (on a regular basis) only in live betting. I will not voice my ideas, but I can only say that live quotes are very similar to those that are algorithmically driven, regardless of the real situation in the game, so here you can catch some distortions in the odds.

[AmoreJaz]

Game analysis and other nonsense does not work - the bookmaker has better analysts and more data so that his analysis is better than yours. It seems to me that now it is possible to find value (on a regular basis) only in live betting. I will not voice my ideas, but I can only say that live quotes are very similar to those that are algorithmically driven, regardless of the real situation in the game, so here you can catch some distortions in the odds.

We can't discard the fact that the bookie definitely has the advantage over the bettor as they have other resources why they are having this business. If they are going to the route of bankruptcy, do you really think they will continue their business? Before they go that path, more than likely, they already shut down their operations.

As a bookmaker, they already know this business more than the bettor himself. They won't venture this kind of business without their card over the bettor. But of course, there are times that a bettor will win over the house.

[Odusko]

I read an article that says in order to win in sports betting in the long run, we need to find value before making a bet. This means we don't need to bet on all the games available because we can't find value in all of them. Since it requires careful analysis based on the information available, it's impossible to analyze every game available for betting. Therefore, it's important to limit the number of bets and make sure that all the bets we make are well-studied so we can come out ahead in the long run.

If you believe in this, from your personal perspective, how do you find value?

Game analysis and other nonsense does not work - the bookmaker has better analysts and more data so that his analysis is better than yours. It seems to me that now it is possible to find value (on a regular basis) only in live betting. I will not voice my ideas, but I can only say that live quotes are very similar to those that are algorithmically driven, regardless of the real situation in the game, so here you can catch some distortions in the odds.

I usually love  live event more than any other form of betting approach although is still depends on luck to win those live games but some time with the current conditions of the gameone can easily take advantage of available odds in the game, this is because at most if a club is already leading in the second half of the match and you meet an available odds of like 2.0 or even 1.90 odds and you stake let say 0.002 bitcoin on the game you will still have the chance to win such live bet, more chance that if you have to bet pre match which the team will have the complete 90 minutes of play.
KTChampions I understand your strategy and it not different from mind, but then also I have to say that it all depends on luck at the end of the day and whatever comes by, you as the bettor should be able to accept the reality, when I bet on live games, I don't select more than one game, at most two games, because the higher the numbers of game, the higher your chances of losing the bet.

[ralle14]

If you believe in this, from your personal perspective, how do you find value?

It's usually when the odds from my perspective are too far apart from the odds of the bookmakers and another factor that I use is timing which i've mentioned in a similar thread.

Around the first few months of the season, there are always a few teams that are getting higher odds and i'll go for their odds before they start to lose their value and get recognized as one of the top teams in the standings. I also apply it on the weakest teams in the league and bet against them until the bookies catch on to how bad they are.

[stadus]

If you believe in this, from your personal perspective, how do you find value?

It's usually when the odds from my perspective are too far apart from the odds of the bookmakers and another factor that I use is timing which i've mentioned in a similar thread.

Around the first few months of the season, there are always a few teams that are getting higher odds and i'll go for their odds before they start to lose their value and get recognized as one of the top teams in the standings. I also apply it on the weakest teams in the league and bet against them until the bookies catch on to how bad they are.

Because the favorites are sometimes overvalued, betting on the underdog can be a wise idea. We can find value in the available games if we do our research. For example, in the NBA, there are plenty of games, like 8 to 10 in a day. Analyzing 3 of those games might be enough, and even winning 2 out of 3 would already make us profitable. For 1.90 odds, you need to maintain a 52.5% winning percentage to break even. It's hard to achieve but not impossible with an effective strategy.

[danherbias07]

I agree with it and I believe that's the best we can do to enhance our winning percentage in sports betting.

It will not be 100 percent, there's no doubt about that. But if we pick just 1 game out of 10 and try to do our own research then maybe we could win that at a higher percentage than betting for the whole 10 and just hoping to get lucky by using the odds given by the bookies.
Let's not forget, even the heavy favorites could lose and I've seen that a lot of times in my own bets. We cannot just rely on what the bookies will give to us because that's not entirely true. They are also just using analysis to guess the outcome of the game so it's not different from what we will do although theirs might be deeper than us.

[bitbollo]

I have been following and betting in the world of betting for 20-25 years and in the best themed forums this is the only goal.
Value bets! being able to find a hidden advantage in the odds.

as I have said several times it is really difficult as an activity and requires a lot of experience.
I do not think that the advent of crypto currencies has had an impact on this topic but it is certain that many bookmakers try to attract customers includes "mixed odds or a set of events" that are normally not available from classic bookmakers.

on the other hand, with cryptocurrencies we can exploit decentralized markets and potentially offer new odds and / or new events.
this is something really new that has not been really exploited.

[OgNasty]

Maybe this is somewhat the same idea but I like to say when it comes to sports betting, you don’t bet the game, you bet the odds. Meaning sometimes you can bet against the team that is expected to win if the loser is being given odds worse than you believe they really are. A lot of people take the obvious winners and that can open up opportunities to get good odds on a possible winner.

[Pandu Geddon]

I read an article that says in order to win in sports betting in the long run, we need to find value before making a bet. This means we don't need to bet on all the games available because we can't find value in all of them. Since it requires careful analysis based on the information available, it's impossible to analyze every game available for betting. Therefore, it's important to limit the number of bets and make sure that all the bets we make are well-studied so we can come out ahead in the long run.

If you believe in this, from your personal perspective, how do you find value?

I bet only on matches where I know the strength of the team. Sometimes bookmakers make events for certain big matches. The odds offered are certainly good, but it is not certain that it will get results. I prefer to make 3-5 bets every week. It is related to teams in several leagues in Europe. I had time to make bets for every team that was favored to win. But the results were not good for me. So since then I limit my bets to only a few teams that I know. Betting only on the Odds guidelines offered by bookmakers is not good enough. When you don't know the strength of the teams competing, it's better not to bet.

[Viscore]

I read an article that says in order to win in sports betting in the long run, we need to find value before making a bet. This means we don't need to bet on all the games available because we can't find value in all of them. Since it requires careful analysis based on the information available, it's impossible to analyze every game available for betting. Therefore, it's important to limit the number of bets and make sure that all the bets we make are well-studied so we can come out ahead in the long run.

If you believe in this, from your personal perspective, how do you find value?

I bet only on matches where I know the strength of the team. Sometimes bookmakers make events for certain big matches. The odds offered are certainly good, but it is not certain that it will get results. I prefer to make 3-5 bets every week. It is related to teams in several leagues in Europe. I had time to make bets for every team that was favored to win. But the results were not good for me. So since then I limit my bets to only a few teams that I know. Betting only on the Odds guidelines offered by bookmakers is not good enough. When you don't know the strength of the teams competing, it's better not to bet.

Regarding knowing the teams, I think we all understand the teams if we consistently follow the league. However, given the number of games on a certain day, it takes a lot of time and effort to analyze them all, which isn't a good idea. As gamblers, we might be tempted to bet on all games since it's fun and adds excitement, but we shouldn't forget that our main focus is to win and stay ahead of the majority. It's a reality that most people lose in sports betting or any form of gambling.

After reading your replies, I find them very on point, and I'm glad you see the importance of this topic. You’ve shared valuable opinions and personal experiences, so how about we focus on finding value from now on and stop betting on games we haven't studied well?

[Blitzboy]

finding value in sports betting isnt about getting lucky or chasing hot streaks. Its a numbers game, a mathematical game. We are speaking of pure, raw probability and mathematics. Many individuals get caught in the excitement of the bet, but the real winners, the smart money, they're looking at the cold, hard data. They are not staking money on every game conceivable. They are selecting the bets when the odds dont exactly match the reality on the field.

You must have a sharp eye, a methodical approach, and be ready to buck convention. You have to dyor, examine the facts, and make your own wise conclusions; you cannot blindly follow the crowd. Its not about betting on your favorite team or the most popular player. Its about knowing the fundamental dynamics of the game, the patterns in the market, and the psychology of the public betting. Its about spotting those understated possibilities when the chances are in your advantage.

[KTChampions]

Game analysis and other nonsense does not work - the bookmaker has better analysts and more data so that his analysis is better than yours. It seems to me that now it is possible to find value (on a regular basis) only in live betting. I will not voice my ideas, but I can only say that live quotes are very similar to those that are algorithmically driven, regardless of the real situation in the game, so here you can catch some distortions in the odds.

I usually love  live event more than any other form of betting approach although is still depends on luck to win those live games but some time with the current conditions of the gameone can easily take advantage of available odds in the game, this is because at most if a club is already leading in the second half of the match and you meet an available odds of like 2.0 or even 1.90 odds and you stake let say 0.002 bitcoin on the game you will still have the chance to win such live bet, more chance that if you have to bet pre match which the team will have the complete 90 minutes of play.
KTChampions I understand your strategy and it not different from mind, but then also I have to say that it all depends on luck at the end of the day and whatever comes by, you as the bettor should be able to accept the reality, when I bet on live games, I don't select more than one game, at most two games, because the higher the numbers of game, the higher your chances of losing the bet.

It's not about luck, but about the fact that in live there is a lot of randomness and the bookmaker cannot calculate everything accurately, but he is obliged to update the odds, so value can appear in the odds. For example, an outsider and a favorite are playing, half of the game has passed and the statistics seem to show that the underdog is playing better. Does this indicate that the teams have equal chances? No. Because the favorite can always improve and achieve the desired result. But bookmakers, despite taking into account the fact that the favorite is stronger, gradually change the odds (if the score is 0-0 and the underdog is playing well) in favor of the underdog and a draw. And here comes the value.