[BET] Trump or Harris 2024, Poker Player vs suchmoon

[suchmoon]

If you think you've seen this before it's because you have.

This is a new bet that originated here: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5208356.msg64575392#msg64575392

Contract:

Code:

suchmoon's address: 18pTKHyCFyr5Gk3LHN4wKke1hUaT3wUnjb
Poker Player's address: bc1qlqawpy5yl7t3z9vfusuyxk9h0n42r8y8jwrd9s

suchmoon agrees to pay 0.01 BTC to Poker Player if Donald J Trump wins the 2024 US presidential election, and Poker Player agrees to pay 0.01 BTC to suchmoon if Kamala Harris wins the 2024 US presidential election.

Decision logic:

Election result is considered decided by the Electoral College meetings. After the 2024 US presidential election, if the Electoral College elects Donald J Trump then Poker Player wins this bet, and if the Electoral College elects Kamala Harris then suchmoon wins this bet, except for the draw conditions listed below.

Conditions for a draw (neither side pays the other side):

    If there is no presidential election in 2024.
    If neither of the candidates gets 270 or more Electoral College votes by midnight January 31, 2025.

Additional terms:

    EC vote total is final regardless of popular vote, pledged electors, unfaithful electors, Congress being mobbed, etc.
    No presidential election in 2024 (martial law, martians invading, etc) means a draw.
    If Donald J Trump is elected but doesn't get sworn in (dies, goes to prison, moves to Slovenia, etc) Poker Player wins.
    If Kamala Harris is elected but doesn't get sworn in (dies, goes to prison, moves to Haiti, etc) suchmoon wins.
    If a third candidate wins or gains enough EC votes to prevent both Trump and Harris from reaching 270 EC votes - it's a draw.
    Loser pays transaction fees.

Signed 2024-09-27

Signature: IEnRzFbmfG3Do64fRlzjTOidiLqCI/ja4VwDrZ1WDoI4D2C8I2BUbydpdxcXbzY1uWlVMTzTDLqyWBt20902xeI=
(signed with my address 18pTKHyCFyr5Gk3LHN4wKke1hUaT3wUnjb)


Local rules: this particular bet, as well as betting on 2024 presidential election in general, and discussing the election itself is on topic. Everything else, including the usual P&S bullshit (you know who you are) is not.

[suchmoon]

Reserved.

[Poker Player]

To put things in context, I was commenting in the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election Bets thread in the Gambling section and I thought of proposing a small bet just for fun but no one took it up. Yesterday I saw that the previous eddie13 vs suchmoon thread had been bumped and it occurred to me to propose the bet to suchmoon.

As I have repeatedly said in the forum I don't like Trump as a person and I don't like some of the things he has done in the past, but I think many of the policies he is proposing are better than what Kamala is proposing and that's what I will defend in this thread.

-----BEGIN BITCOIN SIGNED MESSAGE-----
I accept the 0.01BTC bet vs suchmoon under the conditions set forth in the following message:
https://loyce.club/archive/posts/6457/64578127.html
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bc1qlqawpy5yl7t3z9vfusuyxk9h0n42r8y8jwrd9s
J8qS5RP5KeAofR5G3p/wxQMUYr2v0BFhS4k7wZ7wj4aoVUwIosK7Zp2ovoRuIl8MYd/Rxl5oNSGtdgRMIXkO9hE=
-----END BITCOIN SIGNED MESSAGE-----

[ibminer]

The heat is on!  

I'm disappointed in this election, but it seems a lot is at stake. Feels like the extreme sides of the left and right are up for election, with no other options available.  smh.

Good luck gentlemen!

[Poker Player]

Feels like the extreme sides of the left and right are up for election, with no other options available.  smh.

Tbh I don't see them being much more radical than Jimmy Carter vs Ronald Reagan.

In the case of Kamala, what worries me is that she is on the way to Peronism, which is a kind of social communism, a variant, with disastrous results, like all of them.

It consists of demonizing the rich and making an ever increasing percentage of the population dependent on state aid with more and more state control, which in Kamala's case would be aided by CBDCs, a non-stop increase in government spending and a fast-paced devaluation of the currency. The US has been able to export its inflation for many decades, but this does not have to last forever.

Filling the country with millions of immigrants by leaps and bounds to whom you are going to give state aid and accelerate the process to obtain residency and/or citizenship, the Democrats do it from a business perspective (disguised as humanitarianism), thinking, correctly I believe, that a great majority of those immigrants once their situation is regularized will vote for Democrants for life.

This is not exclusive to the USA; in the UK, for example, the new government is also taking giant steps in this direction, accompanied by an obvious, radical and generalized tax increase, that has already begun to expel capital and talent from the country.

[suchmoon]

As I have repeatedly said in the forum I don't like Trump as a person and I don't like some of the things he has done in the past, but I think many of the policies he is proposing are better than what Kamala is proposing and that's what I will defend in this thread.

TBH I don't even know what Trump's real policies are, he's talking nonsense most of the time and has been trying to distance himself from the only somewhat-policy-like document that I know of ("project 2025"). That said, I think some of Kamala's "policies" seem to be targeted at Trump's voters (she's gonna reduce grocery prices because that's what Fox News has been talking about) and have little to do with how the real world works. Dumb and dumberer type of deal we got going on.

Still, the two GOP weirdos are the most absurd and pathetic presidential ticket I've seen in my lifetime, and that includes Reagan, both Clintons, a bunch of Bushes, and Sarah Palin. So just as a sign of faith in the sanity of the electorate I have to make this bet.

-----BEGIN BITCOIN SIGNED MESSAGE-----
I accept the 0.01BTC bet vs suchmoon under the conditions set forth in the following message:
https://loyce.club/archive/posts/6457/64578127.html
-----BEGIN SIGNATURE-----
bc1qlqawpy5yl7t3z9vfusuyxk9h0n42r8y8jwrd9s
J8qS5RP5KeAofR5G3p/wxQMUYr2v0BFhS4k7wZ7wj4aoVUwIosK7Zp2ovoRuIl8MYd/Rxl5oNSGtdgRMIXkO9hE=
-----END BITCOIN SIGNED MESSAGE-----

Verified.

[Poker Player]

TBH I don't even know what Trump's real policies are, he's talking nonsense most of the time and has been trying to distance himself from the only somewhat-policy-like document that I know of ("project 2025").

Well, leaving aside what he may or may not say, I think it is quite clear that he is going to lower taxes and simplify administrative procedures, as well as give authorizations and stimulate the drilling of oil instead of reducing it by going green as Biden did and then having to beg dictators like Maduro or the Al Saud to extract the oil that the USA had stopped extracting because of his policies. He already did that when he was in office and has said he will do it again.

In the case of Bitcoin I don't trust much what he is going to do, it seems to me that he doesn't understand it and has repeatedly shown signs of it. I also think that he went to the BC for pure electoral interest. But I do believe he will stop the launch of CBDCs.

That said, I think some of Kamala's "policies" seem to be targeted at Trump's voters (she's gonna reduce grocery prices because that's what Fox News has been talking about) and have little to do with how the real world works. Dumb and dumberer type of deal we got going on.

I quite agree, it seems to me that in this election many will vote for one candidate or another not so much because they believe they are ideal but because they believe they are the least bad.

Wanting to control prices on the basis of a political decree has been known not to work since the edict of Diocletian. Price controls can only work in short periods of time or in very specific sectors. The idea that food prices are going to be lowered with price controls is either not knowing anything or knowing that it does not work and making populism out of it.

Still, the two GOP weirdos are the most absurd and pathetic presidential ticket I've seen in my lifetime, and that includes Reagan, both Clintons, a bunch of Bushes, and Sarah Palin. So just as a sign of faith in the sanity of the electorate I have to make this bet.

So just to understand you better, what would be your ideal candidate, Sanders? I would have preferred Ron de Santis on the Republican side, which I guess for you is almost as evil as Trump.

[paxmao]

Ok, so given these conditions it would seem that it is not an equilibrated proposal. I mean, both are near in the polls, popular vote an swing vote are largely undecided and it is fine to bet 1:1. But, given the conditions, there is an advantage to Suchmoon - that is, If any of the candidates dies before the election, the other player is certain to get a draw or a win. For now two attempts have been made on Trump vs zero for Kam so...