[2024-10-01] Iran punishing Israel for acts of terrorism (Op. True Promise)

[pooya87]

إِنَّا مِنَ الْمُجْرِمِینَ مُنتَقِمُونَ

Because of 12 months of genocide in Gaza where Israeli terrorists slaughtered over a hundred thousand unarmed civilians and the murder of thousands of unarmed civilians in Lebanon, about 8:00 PM local time Iran launched the largest ballistic missile attack in history against the Israeli terrorists. In a matter of minutes hundreds of ballistic missiles were launched.
This operation was carried out according to the Article 51 of the United Nations Charter.

Up to 15 minutes later the Iranian hypersonic missiles of various types and destructive capabilities reached their targets passing the entire NATO missile defenses that have been protecting the Israeli terrorists.
Exactly like Operation True Promise all those defenses were proven to be once again 100% useless against a superior power like Iran due to the technological superiority of Iranian military.



One by one these missiles reached their designated targets with pinpoint precision, causing massive devastation.
https://i.postimg.cc/brP1xrMy/video-2024-10-01-20-42-59.gif

وَمَا رَمَيۡتَ إِذۡ رَمَيۡتَ وَلَٰكِنَّ ٱللَّهَ رَمَىٰ

Videos of their impacts are still coming out.


One of the most important and strategic targets (IMO) was the Netzarim Corridor. It is a zone of operation that the Israeli terrorists have declared inside Gaza to manage their terrorist attacks against unarmed Palestinian civilians inside Gaza. The initial reports are indicating large number of Israeli terrorists were eliminated in this corridor with lots of losses in the Armor forces of Israel.

Tonight, Iran gave a new meaning to the word Fire Power...

I'll post more about the specific targets that were annihilated tonight when more intelligence comes out.

For now the most important event of tonight was not this strike at all, but it was the fact that Palestinian children in Gaza and in Lebanon can sleep safely tonight as there will be no Zionist bombs dropping on their homes. I hope we can see the end of the genocide of Palestinians soon after this.

[pooya87]

Analysts are going crazy with their "predictions" about Israel retaliation So I am going to post my "analysis" or better say speculation from a purely military perspective.

Let me first clarify that Operation True Promise 2.0 was just an operation. A small one. Operations have certain objectives (punishment for acts of terrorism and genocide) and they are very constrained and have a handful of targets (200 BMs, 3 airbases wiped out, Mossad terror base flattened, etc.).
Any attack on Iran (Iran's soil, interest, assets, etc.) is declaration of war and when war is declared the response is not in form of an "operation" but instead as a full fledged conflict and the objective will no longer be punishment but instead it will be to neutralize the threat. In simple terms if Israel declares war on Iran, then Iran will wipe out Israel ... literally. And it will not be with 200 missiles in an hour, it will be with 20000 missiles every 24 hours until nothing is left of Israel.

Scenarios in increasing likelihood:
Scenario #1 solo attack
Using US donated aircrafts (F-35 and others) and US donated tanker aircrafts, Israel can try to carry out a strike against Iran. The problem is the distance and also the impenetrable Iranian defenses. The chances of this succeeding is so low that I'd say it is impossible.
The tankers, the F-35's, etc. will be easily detected on Iranian sophisticated over the horizon radars and can easily be shot down before they even reach Iranian borders.
After last night's attack, the Israel's air-force is also degraded considering how 3 of the main targets were airbases and for example the Nevatim airbase that houses F-35's was completely destroyed. Granted that some of these aircrafts flew out of the airbases as the missiles were launched but not all could fly out in time (the initial impact was 5 minutes later, that's not enough time). Many of them were destroyed, degrading the Israeli (US-donated) air-power.

Scenario #2 with NATO's help
This is the only way they can succeed attacking Iran. NATO will have to bring everything it has. At least 3 US carrier strike groups are needed with most of US airforce and cyber warfare units. The US military would have to declare war on Iran and then NAVY launch all its cruise missiles while US airforce carries out a massive airstrike to overwhelm the impenetrable Iranian defenses and open the way for the follow up strike on designated targets.

The chances of this taking place is very low as well. For starters this is declaration of war. US/NATO will need at leas 1.5 million troops to go to such a war. US military is already falling apart. Army can not recruit anyone anymore. NAVY decommissioned 17 ships last month alone because they can't find the crew for them anymore. All other branches are in same terrible shape. As former Chief of Staff to the United States Secretary of State Col. Lawrence Wilkerson said "if US starts drafting for the military half of the Americans will flee to Canada and Mexico and the other half start a revolution toppling the US regime".
US Navy itself is exhausted, heavily damaged (USS Dwight D. Eisenhower mostly destroyed, half a dozen destroyers incapacitated, etc.) and has lost most of its capabilities.

Additionally, such an attack can only be carried out once against Iran because Iran will retaliate. That means the entire US Navy will sink (that's 20-25 warships in that 3 strike groups including submarines and aircraft carriers). The US Airforce will lose most of its aircrafts and every single US military base in a 4000 kilometer radius will turn into dust.
That doesn't just degrade US/NATO capabilities, it will eliminate it.

The first economic consequence of this is going to be oil price shooting up from $70 a barrel to $700 a barrel in a blinking of an eye.

Scenario #3 terrorist attacks using proxies
This is the most likely scenario and that is what NATO has always used against Iran, and Israel as a terrorist organization is very proficient in terrorist attacks.
We saw this after Operation True Promise 1.0 as well. They hired someone to purchase a Hellishot from a toy-store, attach explosive to it and fly it into a restricted airspace trying to hit a radar (it was shot down before it could hit it). They also activated the US proxies in Afghanistan known as ISIS-k to carry out a suicide attack in Iran (which succeeded; sadly).
This will most probably be the approach as well. There already is an increased terrorist movement around Iran, specifically on the eastern borders and there were 2 terrorist attacks over the past weeks in Eastern province of Iran.

I will try to post more about the targets that were destroyed last night but for now the official reports indicate that 90% of the Iranian missiles hit their targets. The most significant ones are:

• 3 main airbases got wiped out namely Nevatim (F-35 are there) and Hatzerim (terrorist attack on Lebanon was carried out from this base) are inoperational now.
• The radar/defense bases (namely the Arrow 2 and Arrow 3 were demolished)
• Armor concentration in Netzarim corridor in Gaza
• Mossad terror base in Tel-Aviv was completely demolished eliminating all Mossad terrorists in that base

Again I have to say I hope that after this the Western and Arab dictators stop supporting the Zionist atrocities so that we can see an end to the genocide of Palestinians.

[Die_empty]

Let me first clarify that Operation True Promise 2.0 was just an operation. A small one. Operations have certain objectives (punishment for acts of terrorism and genocide) and they are very constrained and have a handful of targets (200 BMs, 3 airbases wiped out, Mossad terror base flattened, etc.).

Israel's activities in the Middle East have become unbearable. They are acting like a loose cannon that they cannot be controlled. The killing of innocent civilians by these murderers has gone out of hand. There has been no report from Israel that there was any destruction in Israel but I know that it might be propaganda. From what I have seen, the attack was devastating. I am happy that there is a country that can stand against the bullying of Israel. Iran has shown that they are the defender of the defenceless.
 

Any attack on Iran (Iran's soil, interest, assets, etc.) is declaration of war and when war is declared the response is not in form of an "operation" but instead as a full fledged conflict and the objective will no longer be punishment but instead it will be to neutralize the threat. In simple terms if Israel declares war on Iran, then Iran will wipe out Israel ... literally. And it will not be with 200 missiles in an hour, it will be with 20000 missiles every 24 hours until nothing is left of Israel.

A war between Israel and Iran will be fierce. NATO would have to stretch its financial and military capacity to fight such a war. I also don't want such a war to break out. It will negatively affect the global economy, and the Bitcoin market might slow down. The price of crude has increased because of this attack; a full-scale war will make the price go too high. And this will affect the price of fuel and gas globally, the price of PMS just moved up this morning in my country.

Using US donated aircrafts (F-35 and others) and US donated tanker aircrafts, Israel can try to carry out a strike against Iran. The problem is the distance and also the impenetrable Iranian defenses.

The word impenetrable is my concern. I was surprised when I heard about the assassination of Ismail Haniyeh in the Iranian capital Tehran. It shows some critical security flaws. Iran has one of the best security systems but they can be sabotaged by moles and undercover Israeli agents. I might be wrong; no country's defence system is impregnable.

Again I have to say I hope that after this the Western and Arab dictators stop supporting the Zionist atrocities so that we can see an end to the genocide of Palestinians.

It should be a lesson to all that no country has a monopoly on violence. Respect Iran.

[Hispo]

Honestly, I thought Iran would not directly attack Israel so early in this new development of the war which has now reached Lebanon and Hezbollah. I thought it was going to take Israel to actually land invade the capital city of Lebanon (Beirut) before Iran drew a line on the ground, but I was wrong, clearly.
Also, I am reading confusing and contradicting opinions of this attack from Iran, while in this thread this attack is being displayed as successful and done with pinpoint accuracy, there are others in Twitter/X which assure most of the missiles were intercepted by the iron dome and dis not landed in Israel, though, videos from the ground seems to confirm there were many which reached their target.

Netanyahu is already calling the attack a "serious mistake" and threatening Iran directly.

[aoluain]

My thinking is that Israel must be punished for 1.] their razing of Gaza, killing of over 40,000 people
and displacing all of its population, 2.] the continuing attacks on the people of the West bank by
extremist students, IDF and settlers. . . but I also think that Iran sending rockets again to Israel is only
going to further escalate tensions in the area. Punishment or consequences should be in sanctions.

AFAIK only a few of the rockets have hit targets in Israel with minimal damage such is the effectiveness
of the Iron Dome.

What is really frustrating is to hear some country leaders stating that they "Stand firm with Israel" - some
examples below

UK - Kerr Starmer "We stand with Israel and we recognise her right to self-defence in the face of this aggression."
https://news.sky.com/story/starmer-says-uk-stands-with-israel-and-he-is-deeply-concerned-middle-east-is-on-the-brink-13226112

Germany - Olaf Scholtz - “Iran risks setting the entire region on fire — this must be prevented at all costs,”
Scholz said in a statement. “Hezbollah and Iran must stop their attacks on Israel immediately.”
https://www.politico.eu/article/iran-risks-sett-middle-east-region-fire-germany-chancellor-olaf-scholz/

Australia - Anthony Albanese - "We're very concerned about Iran's actions, which is why we condemn them,"
Mr Albanese said on Wednesday.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-10-02/albanese-condemns-iran-israel-missile-strikes/104422148

Thats all fine but the language is stronger in support of Israel and condemning Iran than it is in condemning
its actions in Gaza and its bombing of residential areas in Lebanon which lets face it is going the same direction
as the Gaza invasion!

[alani123]

I am eager to see confinrdtion of Iran's claim that they destroyed 20 f-35. It would be delightful to have Israel's air force debilitated. They truly are a terrorist state actor and deserve no offensive air force of their own if the utilize it only to wage genocide on other peoples.

International media are quite biased at reporting on Iran's actions as they are with reporting on Russia's successes. So if Iran managed to hit their target maybe we'll never know.

[pooya87]

I also don't want such a war to break out. It will negatively affect the global economy, and the Bitcoin market might slow down. The price of crude has increased because of this attack; a full-scale war will make the price go too high. And this will affect the price of fuel and gas globally, the price of PMS just moved up this morning in my country.

Nobody wants another war anywhere in the world. We are all struggling with a lot of problems in the East and the West alike, adding to those problem is in nobody's interest. In fact this is why Iran has been avoiding any action that could translate into escalation.
Haniyeh was martyred back in July 31 and because US and generally the West promised to put a leash around Netanyahu's neck and bring about the cease fire in Gaza, Iran decided not to exercise its own right to retaliate according to UN Charter. But for 2 months the West did absolutely NOTHING. Not only that, Israel kept escalating while the West kept arming it. Like the terrorist attack on civilians by blowing up their electronics or dropping 170,000 pounds of explosives on a residential area in Lebanon.
So Iran had no choice but to act.

The word impenetrable is my concern. I was surprised when I heard about the assassination of Ismail Haniyeh in the Iranian capital Tehran. It shows some critical security flaws. Iran has one of the best security systems but they can be sabotaged by moles and undercover Israeli agents. I might be wrong; no country's defence system is impregnable.

You are absolutely correct, every system has vulnerabilities. But it is a bit of a leap from an assassination (which is the simplest thing to pull off (just look at US and assassinations of presidents over the years) to air defense.
The thing about Iran's air defense is that it is layered and it is developed indigenously. Which means unlike Patriot, THAAD, S300/400/500, etc. its vulnerabilities are unknown. And most importantly because of its size and sophistication, it would take a lot of firepower to penetrate it. Something Israel doesn't have alone.

there are others in Twitter/X which assure most of the missiles were intercepted by the iron dome and dis not landed in Israel, though, videos from the ground seems to confirm there were many which reached their target.

Iron Dome is a rocket defense and works at the lowest layer (low altitude, low speed projectiles incoming at certain angle; projectiles such as certain artillery shells and rockets). To intercept a ballistic missile systems such as the Arrow 2 and 3 systems engage.

Any claim should be accompanied with proof. The claim that 90% of the missiles hit their targets is backed by footage while there are no evidence at all to counter that. We barely even have any footage showing any interception (for that 10%)!

Also keep in mind that hypersonic BMs are impossible to intercept. The technology simply doesn't exist yet.
Lest we forget, THIS happened like 2 weeks ago as well: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5500581.msg64537220#msg64537220 and that was a single BM. The thing about ABMs is that when the number of incoming BMs grow, their effectiveness degrades significantly. So why should we believe that all the 14 systems I listed in that post that failed could magically intercept 200 BMs that are more advanced version of that single BM?

Netanyahu is already calling the attack a "serious mistake" and threatening Iran directly.

That's not new. For the past 45 years, after Iran's revolution and ever since Iran started supporting Palestinian cause, people like Netanyahu have been threatening Iran and pretty much anybody who stands in their way preventing their genocide.
What was funny about this last threat was that when he was threatening Iran from a bunker deep under ground, his hands were shaking in the video

[pooya87]

Lets first watch this fantastic footage recorded by a Jordanian artist (from Jordanian soil) showing the "Rain Of Missiles". https://www.aparat.com/v/hgni739
We can see the desperate barrage of Arrow-2, Arrow-3, David's Sling, Patriot, THAAD, etc. anti ballistic missile defenses launched at first. Then we see the "rain" begin as the Iranian missiles enter the atmosphere, get rid of their booster (the flashes) before turning their final "engine" on to reach maximum hypersonic speed before hitting their targets with pinpoint precision.
US regime is enforcing a North Korea level of censorship here
They have basically ordered all satelite providing services to censor anything that shows the massive damage that the Zionist war-machine took on October 1. For example Google Earth is now placing a "digital cloud" all over the entire Nevatim Airbase that was completely destroyed.
Other commercial satelite imagery provides like MAXAR and Planet are only allowed to publish a tiny portion of one of the targets as you can see in the image below.

So out of the 8 main targets that were completely destroyed, they only show Nevatim Airbase and only a tiny part of it. This is the entire massive base that was hit by at least 30 ballistic missiles as the videos shows as well (you can see an example of such impacts in the last gif in OP).

Red line is the rough outline of the entire base.
Blue line is the rough outline of what the satelite imagery is "allowed" to show.
Yellow is the control tower (Air traffic control) which I bet was one of the main targets that were hit.
Multiple dark red circles show the real main targets that are the F-35 hangars that were hit with the bulk of those missiles!

Apart from the blue circle, the satelite companies are not allowed to show any of the rest for the time being!!!

The five hits here should be clear so I only add some information about 1, 2 and 3.

#1 is my favorite because it is muscle flexing by Iran proving the unbelievable pinpoint precision technology that only Iran has and nobody else has been capable of coming close to it at this range (LRBMs).
Just think about it, from 3 countries over a missile was launched and traveled roughly 2000 km (1200 miles) at 18000+ km/hr (11000 mile/hr) to hit the bullseye of a teeny tiny taxiway in an airbase. It hit literally the center of it!

#2 another bullseye. The hangar that stores the AWACS (Airborne Warning and Control System) and electronic warfare aircrafts. This was a major hit. Regardless of the fact that only one hangar is hit, any aircraft inside other hangars are either destroyed or severely damaged by the blast and the debris.

#3 At first look, this may look like a missed hit but I would refer you to footage from much earlier time showing the aircrafts that are sitting there. In other words in a complete coordination with the Zionists, instead of taking and releasing the footage right after the impact showing the destroyed aircrafts, they allowed 3 days to clean stuff up in a small location and then took the picture and released it!!!

[BADecker]

People, especially in the US and the UK, need to realize that the current Israel is not the Israel of God. If they are trying to be, God will punish them for their lack of obedience to His law. What is this law that they are not obeying? It's the same one that they disobeyed 1900 years ago. They won't accept that Jesus of Nazareth is the Messiah of the world, and that Gentiles are given a whole lot of preference in their own Tanakh (Old Testament).

It is the Christians who are the true Israel of God. If they current Israel will not change, they will ultimately be destroyed.

[Die_empty]

It will be hard to argue that these missiles did not have a catastrophic effect on Israel based on the footage I have seen. The brilliant thing about these attacks is that no lives were lost because they were limited to attacking military installations. In contrast, Israeli attacks specifically target civilians. The effectiveness of these strikes unequivocally demonstrates that Israel and its allies are weaker than the media portrays them to be. It was evident how this attack had left these so-called superpowers feeling humiliated and disappointed.  

People, especially in the US and the UK, need to realize that the current Israel is not the Israel of God. If they are trying to be, God will punish them for their lack of obedience to His law. What is this law that they are not obeying? It's the same one that they disobeyed 1900 years ago. They won't accept that Jesus of Nazareth is the Messiah of the world, and that Gentiles are given a whole lot of preference in their own Tanakh (Old Testament).

It is the Christians who are the true Israel of God. If they current Israel will not change, they will ultimately be destroyed.

Certain pastors are urging people to pray for Israel's victory. Israel, according to these religious leaders, is God's chosen nation. I promised myself I would not offer prayers for an operation that results in civilian casualties to be successful. Every day, I pray for the freedom  of those who are oppressed by the powerful and for world peace.  

[pooya87]

The satellite imagery that they allow to come out is starting to look like a faucet, one tiny drop comes out every couple of days

Ovda Airbase, house to multiple F-16 squadrons of the child murderer and rapist military of Israel.
Another case where the satellite companies are only allowed to reveal a small portion of a bigger air-base. But in this small portion we can still see 3 precision strikes demolishing the F-16 shelter, and possibly the aircrafts inside and damaging everything nearby.


And of course another unbelievable precision strike on Nevatim airbase (one of the dark red circles from previous post), the hardened shelter of a US-donated F-35l aircraft that got demolished with pinpoint precision.

[aoluain]

Certain pastors are urging people to pray for Israel's victory. Israel, according to these religious leaders, is God's chosen nation. I promised myself I would not offer prayers for an operation that results in civilian casualties to be successful. Every day, I pray for the freedom  of those who are oppressed by the powerful and for world peace.  

Thats great but in the meantime there are those who are praying to God that Israel
will be successful in their war crimes...god isnt listening, he hasnt been fir over
2000 years, maybe he has given up on his chosen people, they are beyond saving,
beyond bringing them back from their depravity.

The satellite imagery that they allow to come out is starting to look like a faucet, one tiny drop comes out every couple of days

Ovda Airbase, house to multiple F-16 squadrons of the child murderer and rapist military of Israel.
Another case where the satellite companies are only allowed to reveal a small portion of a bigger air-base. But in this small portion we can still see 3 precision strikes demolishing the F-16 shelter, and possibly the aircrafts inside and damaging everything nearby.

And of course another unbelievable precision strike on Nevatim airbase (one of the dark red circles from previous post), the hardened shelter of a US-donated F-35l aircraft that got demolished with pinpoint precision.

Israel are very economical with the information they share, unless its about fake
clamis to discount the face that they are blowing up residential areas now in Lebanon.

Unfortunately nobody of influence is calling them out

[GigaBit]

It is a political statement that Iran's missiles could not damage in Israel. Israel resisted most of the missiles. But in reality it turns out that most of them massively damage according to the target area. However, Israel does not want to bring forward the issue of being harmed. I'm surprised that when Netanyahu's session is going on at the UN, the members who are there most of them leave their seats, I think it's a kind of protest against Netanyahu. That is, not only the few Muslim countries, but the number of most countries of the world who against the war. In this situation, If a war breaks out it will affect the whole world. Iran's oil production will stop, which will affect the world oil market especially in Europe, the impact will be greater.

[pooya87]

Iran's oil production will stop, which will affect the world oil market especially in Europe, the impact will be greater.

Not just that, the entire energy coming out of West Asia (oil, gas, etc.) will stop. For example that is at least 30 million barrels of oil per day going poof...
The consequences of this on the global economy is going to be far worse that what happened during The Great Depression back in the 1930's.

[alani123]

If Iran stops exporting oil there will be a market shock for a while but also there's the possibility for other nations gradually improving infrastructure to fill the gap by upping their production.

It's highly likely that Saudi Arabia and some other petro monarchies, with the house of Saud being the traitors that they are, would be very happy to do this.
The price of Saudi Arabia even said that he personally doesn't care about the treatment of Palestinians...
https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/saudi-crown-prince-personally-doesnt-care-palestine-issue

It's crazy the world we live in these days. How could an Arab say this for his compatriots in a neighboring country suffering a genocide?
We're not expecting much solidarity from a monarch but to fall this low? Still crazy.

[Hispo]

If Iran stops exporting oil there will be a market shock for a while but also there's the possibility for other nations gradually improving infrastructure to fill the gap by upping their production.

It's highly likely that Saudi Arabia and some other petro monarchies, with the house of Saud being the traitors that they are, would be very happy to do this.
The price of Saudi Arabia even said that he personally doesn't care about the treatment of Palestinians...
https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/saudi-crown-prince-personally-doesnt-care-palestine-issue

It's crazy the world we live in these days. How could an Arab say this for his compatriots in a neighboring country suffering a genocide?
We're not expecting much solidarity from a monarch but to fall this low? Still crazy.

If Iran starts to diminish their oil production and exportation to countries in the West, specially those who are allies of Israel, then it would certainly created a vaccum in the market of energy which would be filled quickly by other actors like Russia, Venezuela, Guyana... bot even mention countries very close to the USA which have also oil exploitation capabilities like Mexico and Canada.
Iran is aware of the impact of such strategy,.but they could not held on it for an undetermined period of time, or they would lose their position in the international market. I don't know the official position of Saudi Arabia about the Palestinian conflict, but I would not be surprised if they actually did not care on the suffering of the people of Palestine,.for the sake of profit.

[alani123]

The position of the people of Saudi Arabia I'm sure would be very different than that of the country's prince. We will probably never know though, because the regime is very oppressive. That's one funny thing with the so called west and NATO. They don't care at all to make friends with dictators just so long as they serve their interests.

When the Saudi crown prince ordered the killing of world renowned journalist Khashoggi Jamal, had his men cut him to pieces and throw the remains to a well, nobody in the west talked about sanctioning Saudi Arabia or about forcing a regime change. When Afghanistan oppresses women's rights, it's a mistake for US forces to have withdrawn. When Saudi Arabia does so it's just another workday and all is normal. 

But when Iran sends a targeted attack of missiles to military bases that Israel has been using for genocide, they immediately want to bring up regime change and aggression. It's absolutely crazy how hypocritical the west can be sometimes.

[BADecker]

American Doctor: "The bombing doesn't explain children being shot in the head. Every Day I was there, I saw children shot in the head. That's not an accident. That's deliberate targeting of children for death. That's murder."


https://x.com/Kahlissee/status/1845580002609287475