Bitcoin VS Super Computers in 2040

[YUriy1991]

An interesting question but, in my opinion Whatever type of technology and equipment will be used later, they must follow the BTC working pattern otherwise it will be irrelevant. Satoshi was a smart guy and he was able to read which way the wind was going.

[fruktik]

If it could crack the Bitcoin network and break its algorithms, that would be a huge threat. But if there’s no problem there, I think Bitcoin will stay just as secure as it is now. The big thing to look at is mining. Traditional mining might get outpaced once quantum computers become available because many miners would likely switch to quantum mining as it solves cryptographic puzzles much faster. This would push smaller miners out of the game, making the mining process more centralized, controlled by those with enough money to use quantum computers.

Are there any small miners left at the moment? It seems to me that they have long been pushed out by large Bitcoin mining enterprises. Isn't that so? You are a little late to talk about this. What is the point of mining for individuals now? After all, it has practically no meaning. There is no profit and there will be none.

As for supercomputers, you don't have to worry about that. Why? By the time such computing power becomes commonplace, the algorithms of blockchain technology will have changed and will become much more advanced than we can see today.

[Smartprofit]

Hey everyone,

For some days, I have been meaning to pose this question here, Have you ever thought about what might happen to Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies once supercomputers become mainstream?

As by 2040, the computational power going to obsolete the current machines, How are quantum computers going to affect the crypto, especially bitcoin and how we secure, scale, and even mine crypto?

Will Bitcoin adapt to such computational power, or could supercomputers make existing blockchain security obsolete?
What about mining, will supercomputers centralize it and put power into the hands of a few?

Curious to hear what you think whats going to happen in 2040, will bitcoin survive or the bubble we are hearing for few years will burst?

In my opinion, this is not the biggest problem that threatens the development of Bitcoin.

There is a huge amount of super-important infrastructure in the world that is protected by encryption. If super-complex quantum computers are created that are capable of cracking modern encryption systems, then Bitcoin will not be their primary target. In addition, Bitcoin developers are qualified and smart specialists. If a serious threat arises, they will take appropriate measures.

Therefore, in my opinion, there is nothing to worry about. Bitcoin derivatives, legislative regulation, competition from artificial intelligence are much more dangerous for Bitcoin.

[l99l]

I don't have deep knowledge on the subject. But it has always been one of the subjects I've been curious about.
On the surface, I don't believe it will happen. I don't think quantum computers will exist in the near future either.
Even if they do, whether crypto will adapt.the future can provide an opposing structure and security, and I believe in it a little more.

[NotFuzzyWarm]

I don't have deep knowledge on the subject. But it has always been one of the subjects I've been curious about.
On the surface, I don't believe it will happen. I don't think quantum computers will exist in the near future either.
Even if they do, whether crypto will adapt.the future can provide an opposing structure and security, and I believe in it a little more.

Um, quantum computers have existed for over well over 2 decades - in research labs. Thing is, they are still just in the research stage and unable to do anything useful. As I recall the most advanced ones only have 4096 qbits of processing ability and many many things still need to be addressed before they move out of labs. Funny thing is - that's been said ever since the 1st ones with only 1 qbit proved that in-principle they can work.

Will they one day be capable of what has been promised? Yes. As for when - I'd bet not within my lifetime.

[KingZee]

... before super computers become a threat to BTC, we would have moved to an algorithm that is resistant to it.

... BTC may even be of lower interest for attackers.

When would it be deemed that "okay, now quantum computers are a threat to bitcoin"? How easy is it to switch to quantum resistant computing? How backwards compatible is it?

https://x.com/whale_alert/status/1849685315218256097

I was going to make a thread but it's nice to have this thread already open about this. Would it not be sensible to consider that if quantum computing reaches a state where it's usable, that it wouldn't be made public until the people who reached that state benefit themselves first?

And the argument that "there are other things that are more interesting to attackers", is no longer really true anymore. Bitcoin's market cap is higher than that of silver, cracking old bitcoin private keys is inconspicuous, and even completely legal today. If by some miraculous chance you landed on the same private key as Binance's cold wallet, that money is completely yours for the taking, as there was no intrusion, social engineering, or breaking any law of any kind to access it.

When exactly would this "switch" to quantum resistant computing happen, wouldn't it be safer to do before it's publicly known that quantum computing is now an issue? Because once that happens it's probably weeks or months too late, depending on how long it'd take to switch.

[tomasholler002]

I think that Bitcoin will adjust the computational power, however, supercomputers running at full capacity need to calculate how much energy they consume

[Outhue]

Bitcoin will win over super computers because it got time, with time Bitcoin will be able to apply better updates and with time super computers are not coming any time sooner, we've discussed this many time already and I am tired of hearing about super computers that will put Bitcoin out of Business, it is impossible.

[Kryss191]

Bitcoin will win over super computers because it got time, with time Bitcoin will be able to apply better updates and with time super computers are not coming any time sooner, we've discussed this many time already and I am tired of hearing about super computers that will put Bitcoin out of Business, it is impossible.

You have a point but I feel like Super Computers will be seen as the new thing and they will get a lot o traction.

[Oshio-man]

An interesting question but, in my opinion Whatever type of technology and equipment will be used later, they must follow the BTC working pattern otherwise it will be irrelevant. Satoshi was a smart guy and he was able to read which way the wind was going.

And for the technology to be more popular in the global market, it must have to involve bitcoin and cryptocurrency Blockchain because many countries are adapting technology that have relationship with decentralized currency, because those are the kind of tools and equipment people want to association these days. For the founder of bitcoin to make bitcoins online transactions, he knew that there will be different types of technology that will come up that will encourage bitcoiners to buy those technology for mining and other things, because it will make any decentralized transaction easy for users which is what we are experiencing these days and we will continue to see different computers that will make bitcoin more popular globally.

[Wexnident]

~

Where'd 2040 come from?

And assuming we do get that technological advancement, naturally the current state of Bitcoin wouldn't stand up against it lol. Hardly any existing system that uses the current level of algorithms that we have would. Granted it's the "current". Technological advancements don't only happen one-sidedly, everything goes up, even the algorithms people use for hashing, including the ones we use in crypto (and many others). It shouldn't be a problem imo, unless all the current repo maintainers suddenly went out of existence.

Also, I wouldn't worry about Bitcoin really. Before anything else, we'd probably see some sort of mayhem in the world first before that (Assuming everything stagnated). At that point I don't think Bitcoin being affected by QC would matter at all.

[jaberwock]

Where'd 2040 come from?

And assuming we do get that technological advancement, naturally the current state of Bitcoin wouldn't stand up against it lol. Hardly any existing system that uses the current level of algorithms that we have would. Granted it's the "current". Technological advancements don't only happen one-sidedly, everything goes up, even the algorithms people use for hashing, including the ones we use in crypto (and many others). It shouldn't be a problem imo, unless all the current repo maintainers suddenly went out of existence.

Also, I wouldn't worry about Bitcoin really. Before anything else, we'd probably see some sort of mayhem in the world first before that (Assuming everything stagnated). At that point I don't think Bitcoin being affected by QC would matter at all.

The pace will matter ,while if any "bad" person gets a "super" computer, as in something that can crack into anything with brute force of a few hours or even days, then this is not just bad for bitcoin, think of nuclear codes, think of all the sensitive information in all secret agencies around the world, think of all state top secret briefs, these are just the political parts.

What about company secrets? We will certainly learn what KFC crust is made of lol. So all in all, I believe you are right, we need to have the defense ready when something like this happens, which is why it will improve from both sides at the same time, this way if anyone has super computer, then we would have a defense against super computer and it would not change anything for security reasons. Bitcoin will be ready for it when the time comes, there isn't any proof of risk just yet, so we do not have to worry about this yet, we can take our time and not really care about advancements just yet.

[HideYourKeys]

I understand that by then, there will be quant resistant cryptography, not only for bitcoin, but for everything else... Therefore, we will likely go through a fork, but of course, in such case you will get to keep the bitcoin you already have

[NotFuzzyWarm]

A couple good links to current state of QC's
https://www.iotworldtoday.com/quantum/quantum-computers-expected-to-be-useful-by-2026-survey
https://www.iotworldtoday.com/quantum/how-logical-qubits-power-quantum-computing-s-journey-to-stage-2

It should be pointed out that there already are several makers of quantum encryption chips that provide enough complexity and randomness to defeat decryption even when faced with QC's once they are easier available in the future. One is https://www.iotworldtoday.com/quantum/cybersecurity-company-launches-post-quantum-cryptography-on-a-chip

[CroverNo01]

In my opinion, this is not the biggest problem that threatens the development of Bitcoin.

There is a huge amount of super-important infrastructure in the world that is protected by encryption. If super-complex quantum computers are created that are capable of cracking modern encryption systems, then Bitcoin will not be their primary target. In addition, Bitcoin developers are qualified and smart specialists. If a serious threat arises, they will take appropriate measures.

Therefore, in my opinion, there is nothing to worry about. Bitcoin derivatives, legislative regulation, competition from artificial intelligence are much more dangerous for Bitcoin.

Bitcoin can develop because it have every tendency and nothing stopping it from reach full potentials. Although what follows in the hurdles are bearish seasons, also the government have been fighting to make the development of bitcoin dormant. We do what's right and everything should be done in close order, for the purpose to obtained good information about bitcoin, not just that but other projects. Bitcoin developers knows the specific tasks that are supposed to be completed, we having constant issues, threats about bitcoin but at the end of the day, it scales through these means and becoming a general trend in the space. There's basically more knowledge to acquire when we're talking about bitcoin and the space. We just have to be extremely careful because information is needed and consider a priority.

[South Park]

Hey everyone,

For some days, I have been meaning to pose this question here, Have you ever thought about what might happen to Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies once supercomputers become mainstream?

As by 2040, the computational power going to obsolete the current machines, How are quantum computers going to affect the crypto, especially bitcoin and how we secure, scale, and even mine crypto?

Will Bitcoin adapt to such computational power, or could supercomputers make existing blockchain security obsolete?
What about mining, will supercomputers centralize it and put power into the hands of a few?

Curious to hear what you think whats going to happen in 2040, will bitcoin survive or the bubble we are hearing for few years will burst?

The race between the code crackers and the code makers is one the code makers are bound to win, it is true that quantum computers will be able to break current algorithms with ease, but quantum algorithms to encrypt information already exist and they are getting better, then it is clear that whenever we are close to getting those computers close to breaking the current cryptography in use, we can move to one of those algorithms and forget about this for good.

[AndrewWeb]

IBM Quantum System Two in 2024

https://youtu.be/1_gJp2uAjO0?t=145

[Zigabel]

I don't spot a any  competition here actually, instead I see that both will be having a synergy that will boost productivity and even help them project each other because I believe the super computers will leverage on the block chain technology for some of its usability and you cannot leverage the block chain completely without having some Links around Bitcoin so it's a win win situation for both.

[ABCbits]

~

Where'd 2040 come from?
--snip--

It's probably from PDF talks about ECDSA standard which claim ECC can protect data/remain secure until 2040[1].


Source: SEC[1]

I understand that by then, there will be quant resistant cryptography, not only for bitcoin, but for everything else... Therefore, we will likely go through a fork, but of course, in such case you will get to keep the bitcoin you already have

Quantum resistant cryptography already exist, where NIST even finalize 3 of such cryptography[2]. It's just matter when Bitcoin developer suggest to choose and implement certain of such cryptography.

[1] https://www.secg.org/sec1-v2.pdf page 73.
[2] https://www.nist.gov/news-events/news/2024/08/nist-releases-first-3-finalized-post-quantum-encryption-standards

[Smartprofit]

Every day, hackers attack all sorts of programs. This is a common occurrence, and of course, every action always creates a reaction.

Hackers create new threats, and software developers create protection against these threats. This situation is called "Battle of armor and shell".

Therefore, the creation of new quantum supercomputers does not pose a serious threat to Bitcoin.

In addition, it should be noted that the creation of quantum computers is a pre-determined event that is not a surprise to anyone (including Bitcoin developers).