NCAA Football Playoff Semifinal Preview: Indiana Hoosiers vs Oregon Ducks
(January 9, 2026 – Peach Bowl, Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, GA | 7:30 PM ET | ESPN)
The undefeated Indiana Hoosiers (14-0) face the Oregon Ducks (13-1) in a massive College Football Playoff semifinal. It’s a rematch of the regular-season meeting where Indiana won 30-20 in Eugene. Indiana has been the most consistent and complete team in the country all year, while Oregon — led by QB Dante Moore — has the explosiveness to flip the game quickly if they protect Moore and avoid negative plays.
Betting Odds from Bitcoin-Betting
Indiana -3.5 @ -112
Oregon +3.5 @ -102
Why Indiana Wins and Covers the -3.5
Indiana’s edge starts with defense. The Hoosiers have been one of the nation’s stingiest units all season, allowing roughly 11 points per game, and they’ve repeatedly proven they can win tight, high-pressure games — including 13-10 over Ohio State in the Big Ten Championship and a 27-24 win over Penn State. Offensively, Fernando Mendoza has been steady and efficient, and Indiana’s balance keeps them from being one-dimensional.
Oregon’s offense is dangerous, but Indiana matches up well: the Hoosiers can generate pressure, limit explosives, and force Moore into tougher third downs where mistakes and turnovers happen. Indiana also already showed they can control this matchup in the first meeting, and if they win the trenches again, they’ll dictate tempo and wear Oregon down late.
If this same résumé belonged to a traditional brand like Alabama or Ohio State, a lot of bettors would price it higher — but Indiana has been the most complete team in college football on the field this season, and the -3.5 feels short for a team that can win multiple ways.
Prediction: Indiana 31, Oregon 20 (Indiana covers -3.5)
