Gambling on events, where do you draw the line?

[stompix]

We recently had endless discussions about elections in the US, while most of it was just about politics and less about actually betting, it did spark an interesting question in my mind at that time, and that was, would you bet on the guy that you don't like and you voted against because you know your candidate would lose? So keep your vote, but go for the $?

At that time I abandoned the idea of creating such a topic cause the whole situation on the forum was already bad enough, tuning those topics into 4 chan material but with the current events and current "offers" on polymarket, from the Tyson match to actual war I'm curious, what kind of bets are simply too much for you?

Here are a few examples from Polymarket right now, from bad to worse:

Will Israel invade Syria in 2024? $408,982 Vol.
Another Israeli military action against Iran in 2024? $750,767 Vol.
North Korea x South Korea military clash in 2024?$653,593 Vol.
Will a nuclear weapon detonate in 2024? $3,445,778 Vol

Would you try to make money on this?

[Perfectbaby]

We recently had endless discussions about elections in the US, while most of it was just about politics and less about actually betting, it did spark an interesting question in my mind at that time, and that was, would you bet on the guy that you don't like and you voted against because you know your candidate would lose? So keep your vote, but go for the $?

I would go for the dollar as a gambler then vote for whom I think is capable of ruling. Let me say if I were to be USA citizen with my card I would go vote for whom I think is credible enough to lead the nation, while in the gambling site I would go place bet to have my winnings.

I think this same thing is applicable to emotions; when you are gambling with emotions it makes you go against your choice. For instance you have two teams because you are a fan of team A you go give winning to Team A, knowing too well that Team B gonna win but due to emotion and a die-hard fan you wouldn't want to messed up with you club therefore betting against the winning party in order to prioritize your clubs. To me this is not gambling rather just swinging and toiling with emotions.

[Wiwo]

We have to come to a point where we draw the line between our choices vs gambling let say for example when you put a smaller club against a stronger club and I am a fan of the small club but if it comes to me betting on the match I will likely bet against my favourite clubs, because I know that my chances of winning bet are higher with the other club my favourite club.

The same will go with betting on an election or any other political events like wars and the rest of the power tussles around the globe.

Is that 2025 you meant to write there, I see you mentioning 2024 beside most global event discussion will be mentioning 2025 already since the year 2024 is almost winding out already

[Cantsay]

Any bet that involves human life I would never bet on it. For example the Hurricane that happened in Minton, we saw some site asking people to bet on the number of people they think died during that incidents and it was actually disgusting (I can’t recall the exact site).

As for those you included in your post, they also fall into the category of things I can never bet on - since their action will definitely lead to the lost of life.

[Sandra_hakeem]

We recently had endless discussions about elections in the US, while most of it was just about politics and less about actually betting, it did spark an interesting question in my mind at that time, and that was, would you bet on the guy that you don't like and you voted against because you know your candidate would lose? So keep your vote, but go for the $?

money, money, money all the way!!  and yes, I'm speaking through the minds of the majority. Since I'm not allowed to gamble my way, as a means of exercising my franchise, why shouldn't I make some bucks off of it if I've got the opportunity to do so?
Although, I don't seems to see the decency in (the regulatory bodies) allowing casinos to offer 'em odds for people who are interested in wagering.
Good Lord, I haven't heard any news about Shayne... Has he been released ever since the apprehension by the Federal law enforcement agencies?

Will a nuclear weapon detonate in 2024? $3,445,778 Vol

Did I just read this clearly or, are my eyes displaying a blurry vision? $3 million volatility that a nuclear weapon would detonate in 2024?

[CryptoHeadlineNews]

We recently had endless discussions about elections in the US, while most of it was just about politics and less about actually betting, it did spark an interesting question in my mind at that time, and that was, would you bet on the guy that you don't like and you voted against because you know your candidate would lose? So keep your vote, but go for the $?

I'm sure the main purpose and primary reason for gambling is to make profit, right? And as such, if the answer is "Yes", then I will definitely go for the dollar, rather than a mere candidate I love and 100% sure  woundn't win the election, base on certain factors best known to me. Because as a gambler, our primary aim should always be to chase the profit in a more mature and calculative way, rather than involving emotions over things you are sure will yield no fruitful results.

[Hispo]

We recently had endless discussions about elections in the US, while most of it was just about politics and less about actually betting, it did spark an interesting question in my mind at that time, and that was, would you bet on the guy that you don't like and you voted against because you know your candidate would lose? So keep your vote, but go for the $?

At that time I abandoned the idea of creating such a topic cause the whole situation on the forum was already bad enough, tuning those topics into 4 chan material but with the current events and current "offers" on polymarket, from the Tyson match to actual war I'm curious, what kind of bets are simply too much for you?

Here are a few examples from Polymarket right now, from bad to worse:

Will Israel invade Syria in 2024? $408,982 Vol.
Another Israeli military action against Iran in 2024? $750,767 Vol.
North Korea x South Korea military clash in 2024?$653,593 Vol.
Will a nuclear weapon detonate in 2024? $3,445,778 Vol

Would you try to make money on this?

Compared to the market of sport-bettting, betting on those political events and the current affairs going in around the world (specially in the middle east) could appear to be niche of a market when compared on next to the other, still I have no problem with those markets existing.
As I am personally interested in the political events an also on the way the United States could influence on those countries, then I am into for in order to capitalize my knowledge and years of experience in geopolitics. I am not an expert, but being more aware than the regular bettor is enough for one to pocket a buck out all the entropy we see in the world of politics.
There will be people who does not like it, and that is okey, to each their own. But I do like there are how many options there are out there for bettors. 

[nelson4lov]

would you bet on the guy that you don't like and you voted against because you know your candidate would lose? So keep your vote, but go for the $?

Absolutely. There was a time when my team (Liverpool) was performing very poorly. During those times, I would bet against them and most times, I won.  I love the club and the team but I learnt something from a wise man a few years ago about being right or making money at the expense of not being right. As you may have guessed, I chose the later option.

If I know that my candidate will lose, I can turn a potentially bad situation to a win. That is a win in my books.

[...]
Would you try to make money on this?

Not on these current events because they don't interest or appeal to me. But if it does, certainly. Btw, it's a prediction market, there's always going to be absurd and insane markets to gamble on. Doesn't surprise me.

[Fiatless]

Would you try to make money on this?

My gambling activities have limits. I wouldn't bet on any activity that will cause death, destruction and suffering. Betting on wars or nuclear attacks is going to the extreme for me. Gambling on these conflicts might make me feel like I want them to happen. If I even consider gambling on these projected conflicts my bet will be against it's occurrence. My gambling habit is not just for money but for pleasure and these conflicts will bring nothing but sorry and pains.

Another thing again is that these events are difficult to predict. Information on the possibility of these events happening is hard to find. Historical analysis might not be helpful in this case. Maybe you can only depend on news or a leak from an insider.

[stompix]

Is that 2025 you meant to write there, I see you mentioning 2024 beside most global event discussion will be mentioning 2025 already since the year 2024 is almost winding out already

No, it's 2024, those are bets from polymarket with a 2024 deadline from here:
https://polymarket.com/markets/politics/geopolitics

Did I just read this clearly or, are my eyes displaying a blurry vision? $3 million volatility that a nuclear weapon would detonate in 2024?

Yup, and it's not the only one:
https://polymarket.com/event/will-a-nuclear-weapon-detonate-in-2024
https://polymarket.com/event/will-russia-use-a-nuclear-weapon-in-2024
https://polymarket.com/event/nuclear-weapon-detonation-by

Any bet that involves human life I would never bet on it. For example the Hurricane that happened in Minton, we saw some site asking people to bet on the number of people they think died during that incidents and it was actually disgusting (I can’t recall the exact site).  

It was retardio, and polymarket is soft compared to what is on this site:
https://retardio.casino/event/2939 - Will Elon Musk impregnate Tiffany Fong?

[acroman08]

I would bet on who the president will be but not on the possible wars and nuclear detonation. betting on who the president will be and betting on possible wars and even nuclear detonation is very different, at least for me, I am sure a lot of people would be fine betting on possible wars and nuclear bomb going off. anyway, this reminded me of the thread that was posted more than a month ago about how many people will die in the hurricane that hit the US recently and I basically said the same thing.

[KTChampions]

We recently had endless discussions about elections in the US, while most of it was just about politics and less about actually betting, it did spark an interesting question in my mind at that time, and that was, would you bet on the guy that you don't like and you voted against because you know your candidate would lose? So keep your vote, but go for the $?

At that time I abandoned the idea of creating such a topic cause the whole situation on the forum was already bad enough, tuning those topics into 4 chan material but with the current events and current "offers" on polymarket, from the Tyson match to actual war I'm curious, what kind of bets are simply too much for you?

Here are a few examples from Polymarket right now, from bad to worse:

Will Israel invade Syria in 2024? $408,982 Vol.
Another Israeli military action against Iran in 2024? $750,767 Vol.
North Korea x South Korea military clash in 2024?$653,593 Vol.
Will a nuclear weapon detonate in 2024? $3,445,778 Vol

Would you try to make money on this?

Lol wtf  The first two options look like easy money, as Netanyahu is ready to wipe the world to dust just to remain a dictator and not let the opposition overthrow him. The only thing that can prevent this is Trump, it seems he is not a fan of wars and is not a lobbyist for military companies. The third option is a matter of interpretation - as far as I know, small clashes happen there regularly. If you mean a big war, then no.
The fourth option is also no, it's suicide for any country that wants to do it.
In general, I don't care what I make money on, the only thing that keeps me from participating in such bets is the timing of the outcomes.

[cryptomaniac_xxx]

We recently had endless discussions about elections in the US, while most of it was just about politics and less about actually betting, it did spark an interesting question in my mind at that time, and that was, would you bet on the guy that you don't like and you voted against because you know your candidate would lose? So keep your vote, but go for the $?

At that time I abandoned the idea of creating such a topic cause the whole situation on the forum was already bad enough, tuning those topics into 4 chan material but with the current events and current "offers" on polymarket, from the Tyson match to actual war I'm curious, what kind of bets are simply too much for you?

Here are a few examples from Polymarket right now, from bad to worse:

Will Israel invade Syria in 2024? $408,982 Vol.
Another Israeli military action against Iran in 2024? $750,767 Vol.
North Korea x South Korea military clash in 2024?$653,593 Vol.
Will a nuclear weapon detonate in 2024? $3,445,778 Vol

Would you try to make money on this?

This is simply too much for me, morally I think there is something wrong with this kind of market. I mean we are talking about the wars itself, what if you resides on those places or at least near your country?

And we all know that people died in war, collateral damage as what the military will call it. But as human, there is still something in us that we don't want to see specially kids dying in war. So i wouldn't play a single sats and bet.

[Saint-loup]

I think we shouldn't see predictive markets as gambling platforms but as a system mainly based on game theory, designed to predict events of the future.
So people shouldn't use it as a negative way to make money from unethical things but in a positive way, as a contribution to a predictive model of critical events for the humanity and the economy.

[stomachgrowls]

We recently had endless discussions about elections in the US, while most of it was just about politics and less about actually betting, it did spark an interesting question in my mind at that time, and that was, would you bet on the guy that you don't like and you voted against because you know your candidate would lose? So keep your vote, but go for the $?

At that time I abandoned the idea of creating such a topic cause the whole situation on the forum was already bad enough, tuning those topics into 4 chan material but with the current events and current "offers" on polymarket, from the Tyson match to actual war I'm curious, what kind of bets are simply too much for you?

Here are a few examples from Polymarket right now, from bad to worse:

Will Israel invade Syria in 2024? $408,982 Vol.
Another Israeli military action against Iran in 2024? $750,767 Vol.
North Korea x South Korea military clash in 2024?$653,593 Vol.
Will a nuclear weapon detonate in 2024? $3,445,778 Vol

Would you try to make money on this?

Just like on what most people been saying above then this is something on which i dont really like to bet on, i dont really have that kind of consideration on making up money or having bets in towards betting if war could happen or talking about nuclear weapon would be dropped or not. Its not really that ethical on my part on doing such thing even if we do say that we are really just that aiming for the money and not taking it seriously.We do know behind that there would really be those people who dies whenever these things do happen so it will really be better that these things wont happen in the first place yet its not really that good for those people who are affected. I do agree into those sentiments above, would you bet in if you do really live into those places mentioned into those bet lines? Pretty sure you wont.

I think we shouldn't see predictive markets as gambling platforms but as a system mainly based on game theory, designed to predict events of the future.
So people shouldn't use it as a negative way to make money from unethical things but in a positive way, as a contribution to a predictive model of critical events for the humanity and the economy.

Its indeed something that you can be happy on the time or moment that you will really be able to win up such bet. On what exchange? People's lives?
I dont know on whats up into those people who do make out some bets on that particular event or future happening considering that there are really that
huge volume of people who do make out bets basing up on the amount of money that been put through.

[Victorybit1]

Any bet that involves human life I would never bet on it. For example the Hurricane that happened in Minton, we saw some site asking people to bet on the number of people they think died during that incidents and it was actually disgusting (I can’t recall the exact site).

As for those you included in your post, they also fall into the category of things I can never bet on - since their action will definitely lead to the lost of life.

Like seriously? Betting sites actually do this that you are saying now? It's even inhumane to think of such rather to let people actually bet on it and I would definitely not involved myself in such betting. 

For the option the Op posted , the one that scared me most is the bet option of if a nuclear bomb will be detonated in the future which is really stupid and funny at the same time.

[yahoo62278]

People will bet on anything, literally anything if they can. Not a shock to me that there would be a market on military events. Would I bet on them? Nah, I don't wanna feel somehow responsible for encouraging military action if it did happen. I would probably draw the line somewhere around human violence like MMA or bare knuckle fighting personally, but to each their own.

[ralle14]

I'll always vote for who I think deserves to win, and then my money goes to which line has the best win probability.

Betting on the elections back then was on another level compared to these events, it got so popular that some of the top bookies offered good bonuses on top of whoever you're betting on and it was an easy choice for most gamblers to go for it knowing you'll get to walk away with a win regardless.

Going back to the main question, i'd rather pass it up than take the risk on these world events, the odds are too one-sided and it's not worth going against the public when we only have a few weeks left before the year ends.

[Cantsay]

Like seriously? Betting sites actually do this that you are saying now? It's even inhumane to think of such rather to let people actually bet on it and I would definitely not involved myself in such betting. 

For the option the Op posted , the one that scared me most is the bet option of if a nuclear bomb will be detonated in the future which is really stupid and funny at the same time.

It seems like you missed the links^[1][2] the Op posted as a reply to my comment above. If you check them you’ll see some silly stuffs that people actually spend money on and bet.

“ Will the United States and Iran declare war this year?” is an example there and those ones the op posted are not being made but an actual prediction people bet on.

[1] https://retardio.casino/event/2497
[2] https://polymarket.com/event/nuclear-weapon-detonation-by

[Fortify]

We recently had endless discussions about elections in the US, while most of it was just about politics and less about actually betting, it did spark an interesting question in my mind at that time, and that was, would you bet on the guy that you don't like and you voted against because you know your candidate would lose? So keep your vote, but go for the $?

At that time I abandoned the idea of creating such a topic cause the whole situation on the forum was already bad enough, tuning those topics into 4 chan material but with the current events and current "offers" on polymarket, from the Tyson match to actual war I'm curious, what kind of bets are simply too much for you?

Here are a few examples from Polymarket right now, from bad to worse:

Will Israel invade Syria in 2024? $408,982 Vol.
Another Israeli military action against Iran in 2024? $750,767 Vol.
North Korea x South Korea military clash in 2024?$653,593 Vol.
Will a nuclear weapon detonate in 2024? $3,445,778 Vol

Would you try to make money on this?

A good business person will often take wagers or opinions on things that actually go against their core beliefs, not because they are happy with the results, but because they are able to read the human nature or current direction of travel that will lead to a certain end result. Just look at the Trump presidency for example, there was a lot of weight leaning towards Kamala winning the election, however all the odds at every bookmaker told us that Trump had 1.5x odds, which in any other scenario is pretty much telling us that this side is expected to win. Someone making an objective decision with simply those two outcomes on the table should be inclined to take the easy money that will make your money go up by 50%.