[POLYMARKET] Post election Trump, prediction bets, Saylor will sell bitcoin?

[bbc.reporter]

@mindrust. Agreed. Also, these markets are the expression of how high an outcome might occur. Why would these politicians want to ban this? They want the fake news media that are under their control to he the only expression on what might be true? I will not be very much shocked if that is the correct assessment heheheeh.

In any case, this is a good news update from Polymarket.



Polymarket said it expects to roll out a new 1:1 USDC-backed collateral token in the coming weeks as part of a broader overhaul of its trading platform, according to a post on X.

The upgrade, described by the company as a “full exchange upgrade,” includes a rebuilt trading engine, updated smart contracts and a new collateral token called Polymarket USD. The token will replace USDC.e, a bridged version of Circle’s USDC stablecoin that originates on Ethereum (ETH) and is wrapped for use on other chains.

The update follows earlier signals that a broader token strategy is in the works. In October, Polymarket’s chief marketing officer confirmed plans for a POLY token but did not provide a timeline or details on its function.

That token has yet to be formally unveiled. Still, its potential role has drawn attention.

Polymarket has long relied on UMA’s “optimistic oracle” to resolve market outcomes. In that system, users propose results and UMA token holders vote to settle disputes. The design rewards consensus, not accuracy, which critics say can leave outcomes open to influence by large token holders.

Recent controversies, including disputes tied to geopolitically themed markets, have exposed those limits. If POLY is used to internalize resolution, it could mark a shift toward in-house governance of truth.

Read in full https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2026/04/06/polymarket-reveals-a-full-exchange-upgrade-to-take-control-of-its-own-trading-and-truth

[bbc.reporter]

Why is the rating for this market increasing? Will America declare that aliens are real because aliens are really real or will they declare this to trick everyone and direct attention away from the destruction that they have created in Iran?



Source https://polymarket.com/event/will-the-us-confirm-that-aliens-exist-before-2027

[bbc.reporter]

On this pump on bitcoin and the cryptospace, what is everyone's speculation? Is the Donald's war against Iran nearing the end? This was the first question that appeared in my mind hehehe. However, it is very headshaking to see that on Polymarket, it is showing that the war is not nearing the end.

What is everyone's speculation on this? Will the Donald throw his bombs again and according to his words send Iran back to the stone age?

[bbc.reporter]

It appears that in Iran, the Donald is finding his victory. The scariness of the war has very much lessened, I reckon. This is certainly why bitcoin is pumping! The fear is not anymore in the people's minds.

In any case, I have discovered this China will unban bitcoin market. What is everyone's speculation on this? Is there a possibility that China might unban bitcoin?



Source https://polymarket.com/event/will-china-unban-bitcoin-by-2027

[acroman08]

In any case, I have discovered this China will unban bitcoin market. What is everyone's speculation on this? Is there a possibility that China might unban bitcoin?

There is, but I doubt they will anytime soon. I mean, if they unban Bitcoin, they would have to accept the fact that they won't be able to control it, which is something they don't like. Pretty sure they would rather make a stable coin backed by their currency than unban Bitcoin.

[bbc.reporter]

@acroman08. I have heard that Iran is demanding that the payment for ships to go through the Strait of Hormuz should be in bitcoin. If China will pay, it should be in bitcoin. How can they collect bitcoin for payment if they will be breaking their own laws hehehehe.

In any case, you are correct. It will not be soon.

[stadus]

have heard that Iran is demanding that the payment for ships to go through the Strait of Hormuz should be in bitcoin. If China will pay, it should be in bitcoin. How can they collect bitcoin for payment if they will be breaking their own laws hehehehe.

Was there ever any official publication about that that we can actually confirm? Because I haven’t seen one myself, so for now it just feels like the media is trying to hype it up more than it really deserves.

But even if they really do end up accepting Bitcoin, I don’t think it changes much anymore. They are already in a position where survival matters more than anything else. They need money to keep their current operations going, and we all know war is very expensive. Oil is still their number one commodity, and without that, it’s going to be hard for them to keep up if this turns into a long war.

[acroman08]

@acroman08. I have heard that Iran is demanding that the payment for ships to go through the Strait of Hormuz should be in bitcoin. If China will pay, it should be in bitcoin. How can they collect bitcoin for payment if they will be breaking their own laws hehehehe.

In any case, you are correct. It will not be soon.

As far as I know, Bitcoin is one of the currencies they accept, apart from the Yuan. So, if China is going through the Strait of Hormuz, they'd most likely pay with Yuan. Also, knowing that China and Iran have a friendly relationship, it might also be possible that China can pass the Strait of Hormuz without paying anything.

[KTChampions]

Was there ever any official publication about that that we can actually confirm? Because I haven’t seen one myself, so for now it just feels like the media is trying to hype it up more than it really deserves.

But even if they really do end up accepting Bitcoin, I don’t think it changes much anymore. They are already in a position where survival matters more than anything else. They need money to keep their current operations going, and we all know war is very expensive. Oil is still their number one commodity, and without that, it’s going to be hard for them to keep up if this turns into a long war.

The most important thing is that Iran uses a payment system (cryptocurrency or yuan) that is not part of the dollar zone and is not tracked.
As for Iran's survivability, I'm willing to bet any money that it's higher than the global economy with the Strait of Hormuz closed. Iran has been living under sanctions for half a century, and it appears they are prepared to endure it for a while longer, while a global crisis due to the closed strait will hit unprepared countries much harder.

[bbc.reporter]

have heard that Iran is demanding that the payment for ships to go through the Strait of Hormuz should be in bitcoin. If China will pay, it should be in bitcoin. How can they collect bitcoin for payment if they will be breaking their own laws hehehehe.

Was there ever any official publication about that that we can actually confirm? Because I haven’t seen one myself, so for now it just feels like the media is trying to hype it up more than it really deserves.

But even if they really do end up accepting Bitcoin, I don’t think it changes much anymore. They are already in a position where survival matters more than anything else. They need money to keep their current operations going, and we all know war is very expensive. Oil is still their number one commodity, and without that, it’s going to be hard for them to keep up if this turns into a long war.

You might be correct hehehe. However, my real interest for this is if China will unban bitcoin. I have always speculated this from my other threads before but it appears this unbanning occurrence is taking longer than expected heheheeh.

I reckon if Iran to accept bitcoin will not change anything, China to unban bitcoin will certainly change many things. These Chinamen can pump bitcoin very much similar to altcoins!

[fruktik]

No, Trump clearly has no time for Bitcoin. He has completely different goals. And what he once said about crypto has no positive aspect. On the contrary, his policies and decisions have only made things worse. Therefore, even considering such a solution would be naive. Not under him. If a younger, more progressive president comes to power, then it would be possible to bet on such developments.

[bbc.reporter]

@fruktik. You are very much mistaken. America has a stablecoin law, a market structure and crypto clarity bill, also there is an assurance from the men of the Donald in the SEC that they will never use regulation through enforcement tactics similar to uncle Gary has done.

What has made the price worse is the big sellers of bitcoin. You research who are these big sellers and tell everyone what is real!

[fruktik]

@fruktik. You are very much mistaken. America has a stablecoin law, a market structure and crypto clarity bill, also there is an assurance from the men of the Donald in the SEC that they will never use regulation through enforcement tactics similar to uncle Gary has done.

What has made the price worse is the big sellers of bitcoin. You research who are these big sellers and tell everyone what is real!

Okay, so that might be true, but I don't trust any statements made by someone like Trump. It seems to me he's lost touch with reality and isn't even aware of his actions or decisions. Where are all his campaign promises about crypto? Has he even accomplished any of them? Has he implemented his plan to make the US the crypto capital of the world? Has he created a strategic Bitcoin reserve? Is he supporting miners? I don't see that happening. He's doing the wrong thing.

[bbc.reporter]

@fruktik. You are very much mistaken. America has a stablecoin law, a market structure and crypto clarity bill, also there is an assurance from the men of the Donald in the SEC that they will never use regulation through enforcement tactics similar to uncle Gary has done.

What has made the price worse is the big sellers of bitcoin. You research who are these big sellers and tell everyone what is real!

Okay, so that might be true, but I don't trust any statements made by someone like Trump. It seems to me he's lost touch with reality and isn't even aware of his actions or decisions. Where are all his campaign promises about crypto? Has he even accomplished any of them? Has he implemented his plan to make the US the crypto capital of the world? Has he created a strategic Bitcoin reserve? Is he supporting miners? I don't see that happening. He's doing the wrong thing.

@fruktik. It appears you are only choosing to look at the bad occurrences without considering that the job of the president can be full of complications and hardships because not all politicians and government officials are under his control. There are many of them who do not like the Donald and who are acting under their own self interests.

In any case, I also do not trust him, however, his administration is more friendly to the cryptospace than any president since the beginning of the cryptospace. It is difficult to make America the crypto capital of the world with only 4 years of his term hehehe. You are asking for the impossible. What is wrong with you?

On the bitcoin strategic reserve, this needs to go through congress! There is already a bill for this called the bitcoin act of 2025! If the Donald had the power to approve this, I am quite certain he would have done it already.

Also, the government supporting miners? Are you this very much headshaking to want the miners to be influenced by the government?

[fruktik]

@fruktik. It appears you are only choosing to look at the bad occurrences without considering that the job of the president can be full of complications and hardships because not all politicians and government officials are under his control. There are many of them who do not like the Donald and who are acting under their own self interests.

In any case, I also do not trust him, however, his administration is more friendly to the cryptospace than any president since the beginning of the cryptospace. It is difficult to make America the crypto capital of the world with only 4 years of his term hehehe. You are asking for the impossible. What is wrong with you?

On the bitcoin strategic reserve, this needs to go through congress! There is already a bill for this called the bitcoin act of 2025! If the Donald had the power to approve this, I am quite certain he would have done it already.

Also, the government supporting miners? Are you this very much headshaking to want the miners to be influenced by the government?

Are you saying that four years isn't enough time to make a decision and push this law through all the authorities? For me, it's more than enough. Trump is simply preoccupied with completely different matters and certainly has no time for some crypto-capital. Most likely, this was said to attract additional voters who cast their ballots for him. As soon as he became president, he immediately forgot about his promises.

No, I'm certainly not one to believe a single word this man says. He's a liar and a deceiver, the likes of which history hasn't seen in a long time. His goal is to make as much money as possible and hold on to power until the very end.

[bbc.reporter]

@fruktik. I am saying that it is not an easy process for the Donald where he can propose and approve anything he wants. I reckon you should study the importance of the separation of powers in the government before getting triggered and arguing.

Also, you are headshaking to declare that he forgot the cryptospace already. The Republicans under the faction of the Donald are still fighting for the clarity act. If you are angry that this is not approved, get angry at the Democrats who are blocking the bill's approval hehehehe.

[fruktik]

@fruktik. I am saying that it is not an easy process for the Donald where he can propose and approve anything he wants. I reckon you should study the importance of the separation of powers in the government before getting triggered and arguing.

Also, you are headshaking to declare that he forgot the cryptospace already. The Republicans under the faction of the Donald are still fighting for the clarity act. If you are angry that this is not approved, get angry at the Democrats who are blocking the bill's approval hehehehe.

No, I'm not angry. It's just a statement of facts. Maybe the Democrats are right to block this legislation? They certainly don't want to attribute such credit to Trump. After all, they know full well that this guy will take credit for it, and that's not in the Democrats' plans. The best option is to play this trump card after the election to strengthen their position. Let the red-haired old man somehow navigate his own swamp. After all, he doesn't have much time left. I certainly won't bet on him. It would risk losing money.

[bbc.reporter]

@fruktik. Hehehe are you presently implying that you are agreeing with the anticrypto Democrats on blocking the passage of the clarity act and you are also agreeing for these politicians to protect the banks?

If you blame the Donald because there is no profit on your cryptocoins, I reckon you might be in the wrong investments. I am certainly very sure that you would not mind what will happen in politics if your investments have done a 1000x, correct?

In any case, it very much appears that the government will turn this occurrence into fud and begin a campaign to ban Polymarket in America hehehehe.



The U.S. Department of Justice arrested a master sergeant with the Army on allegations he placed wagers on the raid of Nicolas Maduro ahead of participating in the operation to detain former Venezuelan leader.

The DOJ unsealed an indictment Thursday charging Gannon Ken Van Dyke with the unlawful use of confidential government information for personal gain, theft of nonpublic government information and fraud charges, alleging he used his knowledge of the forthcoming raid on Venezuela to place $33,000 in bets, winning about $400,000 after the raid.

Read in full https://www.coindesk.com/policy/2026/04/23/u-s-arrests-soldier-for-polymarket-bets-on-nicolas-maduro-raid-he-participated-in#

[bbc.reporter]

It appears that the state government is protecting the sportsbooks under their jurisdiction and the federal government is protecting the prediction market platforms hehehe. However, as a prediction markets trader, I want the federal government to be correct on this.

There are many haters on Polymarket but I do not know if this hate is true or not because sometimes it appears they will say anything to increase their posts heheheh.



The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission sued New York on Friday in its latest action to shield what the agency has argued is its unassailable nationwide regulatory authority over prediction market firms.

Earlier this week, New York sued Coinbase and Gemini, arguing that their prediction market contracts violated state gambling laws. And last year, the state had similarly targeted Kalshi, demanding it cease its sports wagering platform.

The CFTC, in its role as the federal derivatives regulator, has staked out a position that the states have no business interfering with those firms. The agency's suit in the U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York argues that federal law "designates the CFTC as the federal agency with 'exclusive jurisdiction' over the regulation of commodity futures, options, and swaps traded on federally regulated exchanges," and that includes these CFTC-registered designated contract markets. State law is effectively preempted, according to the synchronized positions of the regulator and the growing industry it's seeking to protect.

Read in full https://www.coindesk.com/policy/2026/04/24/u-s-cftc-adds-new-york-to-string-of-states-its-suing-to-stop-prediction-market-pushback

[bbc.reporter]

Michael the Saylormoon has announced that Microstrategy might sell some bitcoin to pay for dividend on their issued debt called STRC. It appears that the gamblers in Polymarket was very quick to bet on this news hehehee.

What is everyone's speculation? Will Microstrategy sell some bitcoin by December, 2026?



Source https://polymarket.com/event/microstrategy-sell-any-bitcoin-in-2025