The odds are again down to 4% in May. I personally think 2027 is too close, even if it likely will eventually happen. The Strait of Hormuz payment system and
this opinion of an ex Central Bank member may have increased the odds during a few days only (and the 6% were already the maximum). On other platforms like Duelbits this market also exists and has similar odds (5%).
I've read that there is an idea floating around to first allow Bitcoin trading again in some "sandbox" cities, like Shanghai, before lifting the trading ban in the rest of the country. This is something I might even expect with a likelihood of more than 10%, although less than 30%, for 2027. In theory China has already such a sandbox - Hong Kong.
The question is: if this happens, but in the rest of China crypto trading would still be banned, would this count as a resolution to "Yes" on Polymarket? The current text says:
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the government of the People's Republic of China (PRC) explicitly announces that Chinese citizens will be allowed to legally buy Bitcoin with yuan (renminbi) from inside China by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the PRC announces this change will take place.
"From inside China" would mean from any location in my opinion, not from every location necessarily. (An interesting question is that in this case it then already should be "unbanned" - as Hong Kong is part of China
).
