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Author Topic: This chart illustrates why this is III and not a 3-3-5  (Read 2588 times)
ineededausername
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December 21, 2011, 12:20:41 AM
 #1



Are 3-3-5s really this huge?  Look at that RSI, above 70 for the first time in 6 months.  The other "rallies" on the way down pale in comparison with this one.

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December 21, 2011, 12:39:40 AM
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The "bitcoin market" is a tiny little thing that is moved completely by a few large players, very much like microcap stocks where manipulation is the rule, not the exception. Why would Elliott wave analysis even be relevant to begin with? Marketplace sentiment need not be estimated here, just watch the big boys as they turn their game tokens into useful cash, not that I would encourage "chasing" trading activity in a obviously rigged market  Smiley

It's time for the U.S. to throw Israel under the bus. The pure avarice of a colonial land grab by European colonists after WWII has nothing to do with religious tolerance or freedom, to the contrary, it mocks both by hiding behind them.
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December 21, 2011, 04:03:14 AM
 #3

Are 3-3-5s really this huge?  Look at that RSI, above 70 for the first time in 6 months.  The other "rallies" on the way down pale in comparison with this one.

You're referring to the a 3-3-5 flat within the correction? There is no doubt this month's impulse broke the channel in November. That's plain as day. But that alone says nothing about the possible correction since 19 October. With no other indicators, you must wait for the III.ii correction to confirm or deny III.i.

III.ii should correct to roughly III.i.4 ($3) before continuing strongly up III.iii.

II.correction should drop below $2.

Anything else is purgatory.

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December 21, 2011, 08:42:07 PM
 #4

The 5th major wave down was truncated - ended Nov 18.
Now we are in an upward correction, which should take us above the low on Aug 6 ($5.75)

Am I crazy?
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December 22, 2011, 05:03:12 AM
 #5

The 5th major wave down was truncated - ended Nov 18.
Now we are in an upward correction, which should take us above the low on Aug 6 ($5.75)

Am I crazy?

I think it's a reasonable view. But then I'm very curious how you are counting the waves since November.

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December 22, 2011, 08:29:03 AM
 #6

1. up Dec  1 - $3.14
2. dn Dec  4 - $2.63 (50% retrace)
3. up Dec 19 - $4.5
4. dn (pick your own retrace target) 50% would be =~$3.57
5. up ~$5.8+ target
ineededausername
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December 22, 2011, 02:10:04 PM
 #7

1. up Dec  1 - $3.14
2. dn Dec  4 - $2.63 (50% retrace)
3. up Dec 19 - $4.5
4. dn (pick your own retrace target) 50% would be =~$3.57
5. up ~$5.8+ target


This sounds similar to what I'm thinking.  Going to $6, guys.

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December 22, 2011, 02:13:01 PM
 #8

1. up Dec  1 - $3.14
2. dn Dec  4 - $2.63 (50% retrace)
3. up Dec 19 - $4.5
4. dn (pick your own retrace target) 50% would be =~$3.57
5. up ~$5.8+ target


This sounds similar to what I'm thinking.  Going to $6, guys.

By the looks of what's going on right now, I don't think so.
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December 22, 2011, 02:30:56 PM
 #9

Hey,

So you guys (~gender neutral "guys", I suppose~) are doing "Elliot Wave Analysis", right?

I'd like to read about it. Do any of you have some "suggest reading" which preferably can be found for free on one of the nets (not necessarily www)

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December 22, 2011, 02:32:18 PM
 #10

not saying that what they are saying will happen, but it went to 3.5 and started to recover? seems like they are right on so far?

Well, looks that guy with the 5000BTC at 3.80 chickened out.
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December 22, 2011, 02:35:23 PM
 #11

not saying that what they are saying will happen, but it went to 3.5 and started to recover? seems like they are right on so far?

Well, looks that guy with the 5000BTC at 3.80 chickened out.

proudhon, we were making a month-scale prediction and here you're talking about a short-term correction with people cashing out.  I don't see anything wrong with our hypothesis yet.

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December 22, 2011, 02:37:52 PM
 #12

not saying that what they are saying will happen, but it went to 3.5 and started to recover? seems like they are right on so far?

Well, looks that guy with the 5000BTC at 3.80 chickened out.

proudhon, we were making a month-scale prediction and here you're talking about a short-term correction with people cashing out.  I don't see anything wrong with our hypothesis yet.

Fair enough.  It's unclear yet whether this is a short-term correction.  Maybe it is.  But it's just as likely, I think, that it's the beginning of what netrin has been predicting.
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December 22, 2011, 02:42:54 PM
 #13

Hey,

So you guys (~gender neutral "guys", I suppose~) are doing "Elliot Wave Analysis", right?

I'd like to read about it. Do any of you have some "suggest reading" which preferably can be found for free on one of the nets (not necessarily www)

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elliott_Wave_Principle

http://www.investopedia.com/university/advancedwave/




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Flappy
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December 22, 2011, 06:48:45 PM
 #14

1. up Dec  1 - $3.14
2. dn Dec  4 - $2.63 (50% retrace)
3. up Dec 19 - $4.5
4. dn (pick your own retrace target) 50% would be =~$3.57
5. up ~$5.8+ target


This sounds similar to what I'm thinking.  Going to $6, guys.

We hit (4) this morning.

From (1) to (3) is 18 days.  Another 18 days is 6-Jan.
So... my target is between 5.8 - 6.10 around 6-Jan (more or less)   Grin
zby
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December 23, 2011, 06:15:41 AM
 #15

1. up Dec  1 - $3.14
2. dn Dec  4 - $2.63 (50% retrace)
3. up Dec 19 - $4.5
4. dn (pick your own retrace target) 50% would be =~$3.57
5. up ~$5.8+ target

Goes according to the plan!
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December 23, 2011, 07:49:37 AM
 #16

You guys are using the wrong figures. You are using the Eliot wave analysis backwards. First it is used by brokers to raise a flag of warning when they make a decision, its there to make them think again before making a trade. The reason is that following the wave is arguably marginally profitable in the short run until something changes for real. Staying on it in the long run makes brokers take big losses.

They are also personal, and have to be based on your trading oportunities and the market movement, not on high/low maximums. Only the relation between those two factors make them usable. If you guys were really there, in front of your computer and gox really had been reacting quickly enough for you to put in a sell order at 4.5 a few days ago or a buy at 3.50 yesterday, then it really counts as your wave. Seing it could have been an oportunity, had you foreseen the spike and had the money, doesnt.

Thus, if you really have found a way to predict the market movement by collectively looking at the hi/low single trade spikes, dont credit the eliot waves. Credit yourselves, because it is completely different and a lot more usefull. At least until the trading bots start using it, cancelling it out.



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December 23, 2011, 11:12:28 PM
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You guys are using the wrong figures. You are using the Eliot wave analysis backwards. First it is used by brokers to raise a flag of warning when they make a decision, its there to make them think again before making a trade. The reason is that following the wave is arguably marginally profitable in the short run until something changes for real. Staying on it in the long run makes brokers take big losses.

If you have some tips on risk management I'd love to hear them.

They are also personal, and have to be based on your trading oportunities and the market movement, not on high/low maximums. Only the relation between those two factors make them usable. If you guys were really there, in front of your computer and gox really had been reacting quickly enough for you to put in a sell order at 4.5 a few days ago or a buy at 3.50 yesterday, then it really counts as your wave. Seing it could have been an oportunity, had you foreseen the spike and had the money, doesnt.

Market predictions aren't personal.  What you do with the information is.
I don't know what you mean by making it "your" wave.  Are you saying a prediction is worthless unless you trade on it?

Thus, if you really have found a way to predict the market movement by collectively looking at the hi/low single trade spikes, dont credit the eliot waves. Credit yourselves, because it is completely different and a lot more usefull. At least until the trading bots start using it, cancelling it out.

I see Elliot wave theory as a way of expressing collective market forces in play.  The premise is that those forces move in predictable patterns.  Are you afraid that if everyone starts trading based on Elliot wave predictions, then the market will start to steer around those predictions, making them useless?
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December 24, 2011, 12:56:07 AM
 #18

if everyone starts trading based on the same Elliot wave predictions, then the market will start to steer around those predictions, making them useless? perfectly dependable

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December 24, 2011, 04:12:35 PM
 #19

Elliott describes patterns that people see, whether they consciously apply Elliott numbers or not, people react to these patterns. The stronger the patterns the more likely they will continue and weaker patterns shed little information.

Where Elliott has a great advantage is to predict in advance. If X happens, then this pattern will emerge, likely leading to Y price. However, if W happens, then this pattern will be confirmed, leading to Z price. This is perhaps what someone meant by "my wave". People who casually look at other's charts may not know how to apply them. Sometime, like late October, the pattern is so obvious, you can call a top, but at other times you must wait for scenarios to play out. But scenarios are not random. Humans are not random.

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December 25, 2011, 04:41:31 PM
 #20

Market predictions aren't personal.  What you do with the information is.
I don't know what you mean by making it "your" wave.  Are you saying a prediction is worthless unless you trade on it?

But they are, if they are supposed to be usefull.

The basic idea is:
Theese waves are all about predicting the market behaviour in a certain environment. When the predictability gets higher than the trading cost plus the risk of going astray when the market gets driven by real world changes rather than by mass behaviour, trading according to the waves gets profitable. However, it works only if you have the trading opportunity to do so, trying to trade on a wave one cant catch will in a best case scenario cut a big portion of that profit margin. In a worse case scenario it will ofcourse lead to heave losses rather than profit. Using a common wave based on all the trading data will also make you compete with everyone else limiting the profit to when you can put your bids in faster then your fellow traders.

Thus, calculating the waves on ones personal trading ops not only minimizes the risk of cutting ones margin, but in addition is a prerequisite to not be part of the forces that drives the wave rather than surfing on top of it.

Cutting away spikes one cant trade on, movements that happens when one is asleep, busy or at vacation, stretching the time frame when offline and adjusting the tradable volume to the time of the month when one have money and so forth will create a wave that is actually usefull. If the calculations are done right and real world stimuli are kind enough not to upset the behaviour of the traders, that is. 
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