2025 Difficulty thread. Planning to make 2025 the last one I do.

[philipma1957]

I opened this today and locked it till New Years day.  Getting to be a bit tired doing it I plan to end the thread in Dec 2025 and not do a 2026 thread.

[philipma1957]

So On Jan 1 we are at

https://newhedge.io/terminal/bitcoin/difficulty-estimator

Latest Block:   877280  (4 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   96.3782%  (321 / 333.06 expected, 12.06 behind)

Previous Difficulty:   108522647629298.2                            
Current Difficulty:   109782075598905.2                            
Next Difficulty:   between 106232297455655 and 108717299668762
Next Difficulty Change:   between -3.2335% and -0.9699%
Previous Retarget:   last Sunday at 4:42 PM  (+1.1605%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   January 12, 2025 at 8:24 PM  (in 11d 20h 11m 25s)
Next Retarget (latest):   January 13, 2025 at 5:19 AM  (in 12d 5h 6m 58s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 3h 42m 3s and 14d 12h 37m 35s

So 109.78t

My guess for Jan 1 2026 is

139.98t

but I would like to be wrong.

one of the problems is the s21xp is so much better than a s21 or a s19xp 270th 12-14 watts a th true beast

almost 2x the hash rate of the s19xp


270 at 3700 watts vs 141 at 3100 watts a big improvement for top of the line s19 series to s21 series.

If you go back to Jan 1 last year we were at 72th

I could see 144th if all gear running on jan1 2024 turned into s21xp  by jan 1 2026

so 139-144t in a year.

for now lets see how we do.

[NotFuzzyWarm]

[philipma1957]

Hope for a good year for all of us.

[mikeywith]

I opened this today and locked it till New Years day.  Getting to be a bit tired doing it I plan to end the thread in Dec 2025 and not do a 2026 thread.

Too early for that, but maybe right about Oct or so, we conduct some elections for the next difficulty topic manager, what say you and the others? 

Who wants to run?

Till then, let's all hope for a better year with peace all over the globe, health and prosperity.

[philipma1957]

I opened this today and locked it till New Years day.  Getting to be a bit tired doing it I plan to end the thread in Dec 2025 and not do a 2026 thread.

Too early for that, but maybe right about Oct or so, we conduct some elections for the next difficulty topic manager, what say you and the others? 

Who wants to run?

Till then, let's all hope for a better year with peace all over the globe, health and prosperity.

Yeah lets hope 2025 is a boring year.

[joker_josue]

I opened this today and locked it till New Years day.  Getting to be a bit tired doing it I plan to end the thread in Dec 2025 and not do a 2026 thread.

Do you need help with something, so you don't give up on continuing with this topic?

Either way, there's still a lot of time left. It could even be a lively year, one that keeps you motivated for the next one.

[philipma1957]

I opened this today and locked it till New Years day.  Getting to be a bit tired doing it I plan to end the thread in Dec 2025 and not do a 2026 thread.

Do you need help with something, so you don't give up on continuing with this topic?

Either way, there's still a lot of time left. It could even be a lively year, one that keeps you motivated for the next one.

Yeah maybe I will do 2026 but for now I am a bit burnt out.

[philipma1957]

https://newhedge.io/terminal/bitcoin/difficulty-estimator

Latest Block:
878280  (4 minutes ago)

Current Pace:
100.7193%  (1321 / 1311.57 expected, 9.43 ahead)

Previous Difficulty:
108522647629298.2                           
Current Difficulty:
109782075598905.2                           
Next Difficulty:
between 110576544887000 and 110684581280050
Next Difficulty Change:
between +0.7237% and +0.8221%
Previous Retarget:
December 29, 2024 at 4:42 PM  (+1.1605%)
Next Retarget (earliest):
Sunday at 2:18 PM  (in 4d 19h 0m 21s)
Next Retarget (latest):
Sunday at 2:35 PM  (in 4d 19h 17m 28s)
Projected Epoch Length:
between 13d 21h 36m 1s and 13d 21h 53m 7s

so if we do .7193% for the year.

at years end the full jump is 20.48%

[philipma1957]

https://newhedge.io/terminal/bitcoin/difficulty-estimator

Latest Block:
878280  (4 minutes ago)

Current Pace:
100.7193%  (1321 / 1311.57 expected, 9.43 ahead)

Previous Difficulty:
108522647629298.2                            
Current Difficulty:
109782075598905.2                            
Next Difficulty:
between 110576544887000 and 110684581280050
Next Difficulty Change:
between +0.7237% and +0.8221%
Previous Retarget:
December 29, 2024 at 4:42 PM  (+1.1605%)
Next Retarget (earliest):
Sunday at 2:18 PM  (in 4d 19h 0m 21s)
Next Retarget (latest):
Sunday at 2:35 PM  (in 4d 19h 17m 28s)
Projected Epoch Length:
between 13d 21h 36m 1s and 13d 21h 53m 7s

so if we do .7193% for the year.

at years end the full jump is 20.48%

so we did about +0.61 percent


Latest Block:   879146  (27 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   96.5195%  (171 / 177.17 expected, 6.17 behind)

Previous Difficulty:   109782075598905.2                            
Current Difficulty:   110451907374649.5                            
Next Difficulty:   between 107116494953612 and 109896015926298
Next Difficulty Change:   between -3.0198% and -0.5033%
Previous Retarget:   Yesterday at 2:53 PM  (+0.6101%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   January 26, 2025 at 4:51 PM  (in 12d 20h 26m 25s)
Next Retarget (latest):   January 27, 2025 at 3:00 AM  (in 13d 6h 35m 18s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 1h 58m 5s and 14d 12h 6m 58s


and we are moving along  after 1 day and 6 hours.

We may hit next jump on my Birth day.





Latest Block:   879808  (7 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   97.4334%  (833 / 854.94 expected, 21.94 behind)

Previous Difficulty:   109782075598905.2                            
Current Difficulty:   110451907374649.5                            
Next Difficulty:   between 107723080229663 and 108647374962114
Next Difficulty Change:   between -2.4706% and -1.6338%
Previous Retarget:   last Sunday at 2:53 PM  (+0.6101%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   January 26, 2025 at 8:41 PM  (in 8d 7h 18m 45s)
Next Retarget (latest):   January 26, 2025 at 11:44 PM  (in 8d 10h 21m 37s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 5h 48m 11s and 14d 8h 51m 3s



Off pace a bit


Latest Block:   880296  (3 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   98.5067%  (1321 / 1341.03 expected, 20.03 behind)

Previous Difficulty:   109782075598905.2                            
Current Difficulty:   110451907374649.5                            
Next Difficulty:   between 108870824710313 and 109056357595808
Next Difficulty Change:   between -1.4315% and -1.2635%
Previous Retarget:   January 12, 2025 at 2:53 PM  (+0.6101%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Sunday at 7:22 PM  (in 4d 20h 59m 2s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Sunday at 7:59 PM  (in 4d 21h 35m 21s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 4h 29m 17s and 14d 5h 5m 37s


we are still a tiny bit off the pace

Latest Block:   880358  (19 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   98.2867%  (1383 / 1407.11 expected, 24.11 behind)

Previous Difficulty:   109782075598905.2                            
Current Difficulty:   110451907374649.5                            
Next Difficulty:   between 108624564035484 and 108802028045035
Next Difficulty Change:   between -1.6544% and -1.4938%
Previous Retarget:   January 12, 2025 at 2:53 PM  (+0.6101%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Sunday at 8:10 PM  (in 4d 10h 45m 41s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Sunday at 8:44 PM  (in 4d 11h 20m 20s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 5h 16m 45s and 14d 5h 51m 24s


just off a bit


Latest Block:   880701  (3 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   98.1077%  (1726 / 1759.29 expected, 33.29 behind)

Previous Difficulty:   109782075598905.2                            
Current Difficulty:   110451907374649.5                            
Next Difficulty:   between 108413693916741 and 108455107365043
Next Difficulty Change:   between -1.8453% and -1.8078%
Previous Retarget:   January 12, 2025 at 2:53 PM  (+0.6101%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Sunday at 9:14 PM  (in 2d 1h 7m 53s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Sunday at 9:22 PM  (in 2d 1h 15m 56s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 6h 20m 47s and 14d 6h 28m 50s

still off pace.


Latest Block:   880786  (23 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   97.3530%  (1811 / 1860.24 expected, 49.24 behind)

Previous Difficulty:   109782075598905.2                            
Current Difficulty:   110451907374649.5                            
Next Difficulty:   between 107576904889170 and 107605866827294
Next Difficulty Change:   between -2.6029% and -2.5767%
Previous Retarget:   January 12, 2025 at 2:53 PM  (+0.6101%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Tomorrow at 11:55 PM  (in 1d 11h 0m 4s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Monday at 12:01 AM  (in 1d 11h 5m 44s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 9h 2m 28s and 14d 9h 8m 8s

a bit more off the pace

we reached the point that a negative number seems certain. as making up 49 blocks in 24 hours is hard to do.





Latest Block:   880971  (8 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   97.5235%  (1996 / 2046.69 expected, 50.69 behind)

Previous Difficulty:   109782075598905.2                            
Current Difficulty:   110451907374649.5                            
Next Difficulty:   between 107760872208441 and 107761130605299
Next Difficulty Change:   between -2.4364% and -2.4362%
Previous Retarget:   January 12, 2025 at 2:53 PM  (+0.6101%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Today at 11:25 PM  (in 0d 3h 25m 1s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Today at 11:25 PM  (in 0d 3h 25m 4s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 8h 31m 53s and 14d 8h 31m 56s

have to say -2 or -3 percent is a welcome change


we are getting back what we dropped last jump


Latest Block:   882225  (9 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   106.7188%  (1234 / 1156.31 expected, 77.69 ahead)

Previous Difficulty:   110451907374649.5                           
Current Difficulty:   108105433845147.2                           
Next Difficulty:   between 114242133564843 and 115402386768514
Next Difficulty Change:   between +5.6766% and +6.7498%
Previous Retarget:   January 26, 2025 at 10:19 PM  (-2.1244%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Sunday at 1:10 AM  (in 5d 2h 7m 40s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Sunday at 4:21 AM  (in 5d 5h 18m 38s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 13d 2h 50m 46s and 13d 6h 1m 44s

[joker_josue]

Am I seeing correctly? The mempool is almost empty, with fees at a minimum, and will the difficulty increase?

Latest Block:   882866  (39 minutes ago)
Current Pace:   105.7663%  (1875 / 1772.78 expected, 102.22 ahead)
Previous Difficulty:   110451907374649.5                           
Current Difficulty:   108105433845147.2                           
Next Difficulty:   between 114328481686848 and 114360842525653
Next Difficulty Change:   between +5.7565% and +5.7864%
Previous Retarget:   January 27, 2025 at 3:19 AM  (-2.1244%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Tomorrow at 9:00 AM  (in 0d 22h 13m 7s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Tomorrow at 9:05 AM  (in 0d 22h 18m 30s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 13d 5h 40m 53s and 13d 5h 46m 16s

What is the logical reason for this to happen? Wouldn't it make more sense to reduce the difficulty by possibly shutting down machines?

[philipma1957]

Am I seeing correctly? The mempool is almost empty, with fees at a minimum, and will the difficulty increase?

Latest Block:   882866  (39 minutes ago)
Current Pace:   105.7663%  (1875 / 1772.78 expected, 102.22 ahead)
Previous Difficulty:   110451907374649.5                           
Current Difficulty:   108105433845147.2                           
Next Difficulty:   between 114328481686848 and 114360842525653
Next Difficulty Change:   between +5.7565% and +5.7864%
Previous Retarget:   January 27, 2025 at 3:19 AM  (-2.1244%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Tomorrow at 9:00 AM  (in 0d 22h 13m 7s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Tomorrow at 9:05 AM  (in 0d 22h 18m 30s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 13d 5h 40m 53s and 13d 5h 46m 16s

What is the logical reason for this to happen? Wouldn't it make more sense to reduce the difficulty by possibly shutting down machines?

Well there is variance Maybe we did not drop -2% last jump

and maybe we did not gain the +5% this jump.


Also the s21xp really works efficiently. Many days my 2 do around 12.5 watts a th. So we could just be seeing companies switching out s21's for s21 xp's

a 17 or 18 watter for a 12.5 to 13.5 watter is a big improvement

200 th burning 3500 watts
270 th burning 3500 watts

70 th for free in terms of power cost.

70 x 5.5 cents is $3.85 a day more income for same power cost.

[alh]

Might BTC price also play into this? Currently about $96K down from well over $102K.

[philipma1957]

Might BTC price also play into this? Currently about $96K down from well over $102K.

yet miners are adding gear. for more hash.

one could argue they are doing it due to price.

but the angles are complex.

a s21 burns 85 kwatts    200 hash $4.25 power cost  $ 11.00 mined


a s21xp burns 85 kwatts 270 hash $4.25 power cost  $14.85 mined

so same power you earn $3.85 more

you are big mine and you got a ton of s21s jan 2024

they cost more used  today then they cost new last year.

so you dump them and have the profits on the sale of them and you get those s21xps.

so a big company can go from 2 eh to 2.7 eh same infrastructure and not big cost for the upgrade.

[danieleither]

Am I seeing correctly? The mempool is almost empty, with fees at a minimum, and will the difficulty increase?

Latest Block:   882866  (39 minutes ago)
Current Pace:   105.7663%  (1875 / 1772.78 expected, 102.22 ahead)
Previous Difficulty:   110451907374649.5                           
Current Difficulty:   108105433845147.2                           
Next Difficulty:   between 114328481686848 and 114360842525653
Next Difficulty Change:   between +5.7565% and +5.7864%
Previous Retarget:   January 27, 2025 at 3:19 AM  (-2.1244%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Tomorrow at 9:00 AM  (in 0d 22h 13m 7s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Tomorrow at 9:05 AM  (in 0d 22h 18m 30s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 13d 5h 40m 53s and 13d 5h 46m 16s

What is the logical reason for this to happen? Wouldn't it make more sense to reduce the difficulty by possibly shutting down machines?

Well there is variance Maybe we did not drop -2% last jump

and maybe we did not gain the +5% this jump.


Also the s21xp really works efficiently. Many days my 2 do around 12.5 watts a th. So we could just be seeing companies switching out s21's for s21 xp's

a 17 or 18 watter for a 12.5 to 13.5 watter is a big improvement

200 th burning 3500 watts
270 th burning 3500 watts

70 th for free in terms of power cost.

70 x 5.5 cents is $3.85 a day more income for same power cost.

You can't just compare on efficiency. yes for sure, the S21 XP massively outperforms it's rivals, but it's performance is relevant only if you have poor electricity cost. In most situations (e.g. decent power cost), the upgrade from S21 to S21 XP will not benefit you

[joker_josue]

a s21xp burns 85 kwatts 270 hash $4.25 power cost  $14.85 mined

In fact, the machines are very profitable, even for those who don't have a high energy budget.

Even I, with a domestic energy price, would make a profit on day one, if I had a machine like that.

[DaveF]

a s21xp burns 85 kwatts 270 hash $4.25 power cost  $14.85 mined

In fact, the machines are very profitable, even for those who don't have a high energy budget.

Even I, with a domestic energy price, would make a profit on day one, if I had a machine like that.

But how long would ROI take? And what price level would BTC have to stay at?

As joker_josue the person you can look at things a certain way, as joker_josue the mining company with investors and possibly banks behind you doing the financing you have to take a different view. BTC being $90000+ gives a certain answer if ti drops to the $75000 level does that answer change? It if goes to $125000 but power costs go up 30% what else changes?

And so on.

If I had the space and spare power at the moment I would be getting a 21xp. Because it's just me. Writing a business plan to a bank to get a bunch of them would be difficult.

-Dave

[joker_josue]

But how long would ROI take? And what price level would BTC have to stay at?

As joker_josue the person you can look at things a certain way, as joker_josue the mining company with investors and possibly banks behind you doing the financing you have to take a different view. BTC being $90000+ gives a certain answer if ti drops to the $75000 level does that answer change? It if goes to $125000 but power costs go up 30% what else changes?

And so on.

If I had the space and spare power at the moment I would be getting a 21xp. Because it's just me. Writing a business plan to a bank to get a bunch of them would be difficult.

-Dave

There is no doubt that doing things in a personal context is very different from doing things in a business context.

Of course, the ROI would take at least a year and a half, that is if the price of BTC remains above $90k.

Even so, I wouldn't buy that kind of equipment right now. My energy costs don't make up for the work involved. It's a shame because I would like it, but it's not worth it.

[philipma1957]

a s21xp burns 85 kwatts 270 hash $4.25 power cost  $14.85 mined

In fact, the machines are very profitable, even for those who don't have a high energy budget.

Even I, with a domestic energy price, would make a profit on day one, if I had a machine like that.

But how long would ROI take? And what price level would BTC have to stay at?

As joker_josue the person you can look at things a certain way, as joker_josue the mining company with investors and possibly banks behind you doing the financing you have to take a different view. BTC being $90000+ gives a certain answer if ti drops to the $75000 level does that answer change? It if goes to $125000 but power costs go up 30% what else changes?

And so on.

If I had the space and spare power at the moment I would be getting a 21xp. Because it's just me. Writing a business plan to a bank to get a bunch of them would be difficult.

-Dave

Roi for you or me is not at all what it is for a huge company.

A) they got crazy funding
B) they got 10,000 s21's in dec 2023 or 2,000,000 th  which is 2,000 ph or 2 eh.  10,000 x 85 = 850,000 kwatts a day  say 36 megawatts an hour 36 containers
C) it is now Dec 2024 and they turn off 3 containers to be replaced with s21 xps'

they sell off 834 s21's and since coins went way up since they purchased those units they likely make 4,000 a unit vs the 3,000 they paid.

the new s21 xp's were about  6,000 whole sale so the only pay 6,000- 4000 = 2,000 a piece x 834 units = 1,668,000 out of pocket. make it 2 million out of pocket.

those units do 225,180 th vs 166,800 th or 58,380 th a day more around 3210.90 a day more $$$ true profit. cost was 2,000,000 seems to be 600 days time to pay the new gear off, but you get to write off 33 to 35% of the 2 million on taxes so cots was 1,300,000 to boost your hash by 58,380 th or 58.38ph more.  And not cost to upgrade your power at all.

So yeah marathon has tons and tons and tons and tons of gear in Texas. they are likely rotating out the s21's for s21 xp's

200th vs 270 th same power used.

A guy like me with 25kwatts an hour can not match what they can do. even when I was up to 250kwatts an hour I do not touch them in the least. but I would be swapping out s21xp's slowly . which I have been doing.

https://newhedge.io/bitcoin/difficulty-estimator

Latest Block:
883789  (9 minutes ago)
Current Pace:

98.3541%  (782 / 795.09 expected, 13.09 behind)

Previous Difficulty:
108105433845147.2                            
Current Difficulty:
114167270716407.6                            
Next Difficulty:
between 112296232863882 and 112990026527635
Next Difficulty Change:
between -1.6389% and -1.0312%
Previous Retarget:
last Sunday at 4:32 AM  (+5.6073%)
Next Retarget (earliest):
February 23, 2025 at 8:03 AM  (in 8d 15h 0m 6s)
Next Retarget (latest):
February 23, 2025 at 10:09 AM  (in 8d 17h 6m 29s)
Projected Epoch Length:
between 14d 3h 30m 57s and 14d 5h 37m 21s

just a bit off the pace. price is okay around 97k



Latest Block:
884630  (a few seconds ago)
Current Pace:

97.8296%  (1623 / 1659.01 expected, 36.01 behind)

Previous Difficulty:
108105433845147.2                            
Current Difficulty:
114167270716407.6                            
Next Difficulty:
between 111693217208457 and 111785274058498
Next Difficulty Change:
between -2.1670% and -2.0864%
Previous Retarget:
February 9, 2025 at 4:32 AM  (+5.6073%)
Next Retarget (earliest):
Sunday at 11:42 AM  (in 2d 18h 40m 11s)
Next Retarget (latest):
Sunday at 11:59 AM  (in 2d 18h 57m 11s)
Projected Epoch Length:
between 14d 7h 10m 15s and 14d 7h 27m 15s




well looks like a good drop maybe 3%


Latest Block:   884979  (3 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   96.8839%  (1972 / 2035.43 expected, 63.43 behind)

Previous Difficulty:   108105433845147.2                           
Current Difficulty:   114167270716407.6                           
Next Difficulty:   between 110612818295092 and 110614458761276
Next Difficulty Change:   between -3.1134% and -3.1119%
Previous Retarget:   February 9, 2025 at 4:32 AM  (+5.6073%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Today at 3:20 PM  (in 0d 7h 33m 50s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Today at 3:20 PM  (in 0d 7h 34m 9s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 10h 48m 5s and 14d 10h 48m 24s

[philipma1957]

new jump

https://newhedge.io/bitcoin/difficulty-estimator

Latest Block:   885064  (6 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   95.7023%  (41 / 42.84 expected, 1.84 behind)

Previous Difficulty:   114167270716407.6                           
Current Difficulty:   110568428300952.7                           
Next Difficulty:   between 105870098391813 and 110371226630055
Next Difficulty Change:   between -4.2493% and -0.1784%
Previous Retarget:   Today at 3:29 PM  (-3.1523%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   March 9, 2025 at 5:05 PM  (in 13d 17h 28m 2s)
Next Retarget (latest):   March 10, 2025 at 7:34 AM  (in 14d 7h 56m 54s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 0h 36m 26s and 14d 15h 5m 19s

so we had a -3.15%

way too early for next set of numbers.