2025 Difficulty thread. Planning to make 2025 the last one I do.

[NotFuzzyWarm]

Now, most of the big miners in the U.S. don't stop in the summer, do they?   

Depends on where they are located. The farms in Texas throttle back at least 2x per year to free up at least several hundred MW (or more) when needed but they do not fully stop.

[mikeywith]

Now, most of the big miners in the U.S. don't stop in the summer, do they?   

Depends on where they are located. The farms in Texas throttle back at least 2x per year to free up at least several hundred MW when needed but do not fully stop.

I believe Texas has the highest hashrate (last i checked), which means "most" miners do throttle back, however, they do get paid handsomely for doing that.

[philipma1957]

Now, most of the big miners in the U.S. don't stop in the summer, do they?   

Depends on where they are located. The farms in Texas throttle back at least 2x per year to free up at least several hundred MW when needed but do not fully stop.

I believe Texas has the highest hashrate (last i checked), which means "most" miners do throttle back, however, they do get paid handsomely for doing that.

It is why marathon has very cheap power cost.

Around 4 cents for 9 months and next to zero for the summer as it shuts off at least half of its gear for the summer  and gets paid as if it mines thus next to zero for what it leaves mining.

But this actually helps the power company and the normals as all the excess wind power for 9 months gets used rather than wasted.

[NotFuzzyWarm]

Yep. It's a win-win for all involved. The power company (in Texas, ERCOT) has incentive to expand renewable power from solar/wind to handle summertime loads because the mines act as a massive base-load to use excess power during cooler weather when the rest of the state does not need it. When conditions call for it the mines throttle back and are paid to do it.

Other states like Iowa and Montana et al with huge wind/solar capacity may run similar deals though they are better connected to the national grid so some of their excess can be sold to other states and if needed power can also be imported from those neighboring states.

[philipma1957]

https://newhedge.io/bitcoin/difficulty-estimator


Latest Block:   897112  (21 minutes ago)
Current Pace:   101.8123%  (2009 / 1973.24 expected, 35.76 ahead)
Previous Difficulty:   123234387977050.9                           
Current Difficulty:   119116256505723.5                           
Next Difficulty:   between 121333718837307 and 121333746069780
Next Difficulty Change:   between +1.8616% and +1.8616%
Previous Retarget:   May 3, 2025 at 4:50 PM  (-3.3417%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Today at 10:51 AM  (in 0d 1h 8m 45s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Today at 10:51 AM  (in 0d 1h 8m 45s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 13d 18h 1m 8s and 13d 18h 1m 8s

Looks like just under  2%

Price is floating at 102-104k

[joker_josue]

Now, most of the big miners in the U.S. don't stop in the summer, do they?   

Depends on where they are located. The farms in Texas throttle back at least 2x per year to free up at least several hundred MW when needed but do not fully stop.

I believe Texas has the highest hashrate (last i checked), which means "most" miners do throttle back, however, they do get paid handsomely for doing that.

It is why marathon has very cheap power cost.

Around 4 cents for 9 months and next to zero for the summer as it shuts off at least half of its gear for the summer  and gets paid as if it mines thus next to zero for what it leaves mining.

But this actually helps the power company and the normals as all the excess wind power for 9 months gets used rather than wasted.

In this scenario, how long does it take for a company like Marathon to recover its investment in new machines? What is their ROI? Is it possible to calculate it?

[philipma1957]

Now, most of the big miners in the U.S. don't stop in the summer, do they?   

Depends on where they are located. The farms in Texas throttle back at least 2x per year to free up at least several hundred MW when needed but do not fully stop.

I believe Texas has the highest hashrate (last i checked), which means "most" miners do throttle back, however, they do get paid handsomely for doing that.

It is why marathon has very cheap power cost.

Around 4 cents for 9 months and next to zero for the summer as it shuts off at least half of its gear for the summer  and gets paid as if it mines thus next to zero for what it leaves mining.

But this actually helps the power company and the normals as all the excess wind power for 9 months gets used rather than wasted.

In this scenario, how long does it take for a company like Marathon to recover its investment in new machines? What is their ROI? Is it possible to calculate it?

It is impossible to tell unless you are given full access to their books.

And the books are legitimate books.

One they are a pool anyone can join with enough hashrate .

Last they wanted you to provide to join their pool was  20ph or 75 s21xps.

So I would need a small container using 270 kwatts  to qualify to join them.

There is no list of off site miners that mine with them.

We do know. they have 350 containers on a power plant site in Texas running about 350,000 kwatts that is about 100,000 s21s or s21 pros  or s21xps. that is about 20 to 27 eh on 1 site

now the whole world is 1000eh

marathon is 48eh

https://miningpoolstats.stream/bitcoin


so of the 48eh 20 to 27eh is in one spot in Texas.

an unknown amount is smaller independents around the US and Canada  

plus marathons has two more plants on in the midwest and 1 in New York.

You simply can only do one thing 48 eh is 48,000 ph

and 1 ph earns 54 dollars a day

so 54 x 48,000 =2,592,000 a day earned or 946,080,000. earned by mining before expenses

simply do not know the expenses

Apple earned 391 billion last year before expenses

[mikeywith]

It is impossible to tell unless you are given full access to their books.

Most large U.S. miners are publicly listed, so their data is publicly available—just not in a format that's easy to read. However, some sources, like this one: https://pro.theminermag.com/overview, have compiled some of the information you might need. Obviously, the data isn't completely up to date since it's based on SEC filings, which aren't submitted daily, but it does provide a general idea of the overall cost of mining Bitcoin for different companies.

[joker_josue]

It is impossible to tell unless you are given full access to their books.

Most large U.S. miners are publicly listed, so their data is publicly available—just not in a format that's easy to read. However, some sources, like this one: https://pro.theminermag.com/overview, have compiled some of the information you might need. Obviously, the data isn't completely up to date since it's based on SEC filings, which aren't submitted daily, but it does provide a general idea of the overall cost of mining Bitcoin for different companies.

I mean, this data is from mining.

But I investigated, and found the public financial reports: https://ir.mara.com/sec-filings/annual-reports

It looks like in 2024, they had a positive net income of $279,835.
https://ir.mara.com/sec-filings/all-sec-filings/content/0001507605-25-000003/mara-20241231.htm#ifffdeee042d14fc4b3d152f72dc38f41_352

[mikeywith]

It looks like in 2024, they had a positive net income of $279,835.

That figure sounds more like the profit of a small coffee shop than a multi-billion dollar company like Marathon. However, I understand that these numbers aren't always straightforward.

It's possible that a significant portion of their income is still held in Bitcoin, potentially tens of thousands of coins -- which might not be reflected in the reported profit due to accounting rules.

Additionally, they may have made large investments in infrastructure, such as mining gears, which would appear as expenses and reduce the reported profit. This is why I mentioned that while the figures are public, they're not always easy to interpret. To truly understand the company's financial position, you have to read the full report, not just glance at a summary table of income and profit.

[philipma1957]

It looks like in 2024, they had a positive net income of $279,835.

That figure sounds more like the profit of a small coffee shop than a multi-billion dollar company like Marathon. However, I understand that these numbers aren't always straightforward.

It's possible that a significant portion of their income is still held in Bitcoin, potentially tens of thousands of coins -- which might not be reflected in the reported profit due to accounting rules.

Additionally, they may have made large investments in infrastructure, such as mining gears, which would appear as expenses and reduce the reported profit. This is why I mentioned that while the figures are public, they're not always easy to interpret. To truly understand the company's financial position, you have to read the full report, not just glance at a summary table of income and profit.

I have a degree in accounting. I worked for the Internal Revenue Service my wife worked for them and my mom worked for them.

USA tax law is so fucking complex and maneuvering profits into the future on large corporate returns is very common.

I could look at all the books for that company and the filings for the last three years . I would be able to tell you what they are trying to do.

I suspect they end up with coins they hodl. But the angles are endless

It is impressive they show 300,000 net income on close to a billion gross income.

but they put in 350 containers in texas that is around 100k x 350 or 35,000,000 and they have 105,000 mining units which could be

3,000 to 6,000 each or 4500 avg that is 4500x105,000=472,500,000

so 472 + 35 =507 million

Not counting salaries sound proofing and lawsuit issues over the sound

more than all this . Last year coins were not 103k so the billion gross income I mentioned is lower for last year. as I based it on a 100k coin.

so they also can manipulate the income by buying a ton of upgrades in december and write it off for the whole year.

I cant even tell you what time frame they use for a miners life.

I know a lot of IRS rules for equipment.  some as long as 30 years some as short as 1 year.

we as miners know a miners useful life is not five years .
I if I were marathon would want a two year writeoff the irs may say it needs to be 3 years.

which I would swear in court as a mining expert 3 years is wrong.
It is more like 20-26 months if you buy top of the line miners.

This brings in a lot of angles as to when to stack up and buy gear.

And the filings do not show how they write the gear off.

I know they must have fought to get a shorter time then 5 years or 3 years.

but did they get a ruling for 30 months or 24 months or 18 months or 12 months.

[joker_josue]

In other words, they are basically playing with the numbers, in order to minimize taxes on profits as much as possible

I noticed in the report that they repeat several times that they "gave preference to hold".
This indicates that they must not have officially converted BTC to fiat.
This alone causes profitability to drop, when accounting is done.

[mikeywith]

i agree with you phill 100%, us tax on it's own is very complex,  you add the mining business on top of it which is relatively new and has different rules, things become way more complicated, which is why i mentioned -- the numbers we see are far from real.

[philipma1957]

i agree with you phill 100%, us tax on it's own is very complex,  you add the mining business on top of it which is relatively new and has different rules, things become way more complicated, which is why i mentioned -- the numbers we see are far from real.

Especially or the tax write-offs for gear.

Ie miners.

A building is normally 20 or 30 year write off. Ie 300,000 you get 10,000 a year or maybe 15,000 or maybe 7 year accelerated which is 43,000 a year.I would not know how a container is written off.
The Texas plant has 350  1 megawatt containers.

Maybe 125k for each one. they 't get to write it all off in a year. At best 5 or 7.

and the container has 300 miners. maybe 4,000 each or 1,200,000

They won't get 1 year write off or just expense it.

at worst maybe 5 which is a fuckover as they won't last five years.

I think they would want 18 months maybe they get 24 or 36 months so the 1,200,000
 is 600,000 one year and 600,000 the next.

to maybe
400,000 year 1
400,000 year 2
400,000 year 3

[philipma1957]

https://newhedge.io/bitcoin/difficulty-estimator

Latest Block:   900617  (10 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   97.9251%  (1482 / 1513.40 expected, 31.4 behind)

Previous Difficulty:   121658450774825                             
Current Difficulty:   126982285146989.3                           
Next Difficulty:   between 124386680640577 and 124565326934864
Next Difficulty Change:   between -2.0441% and -1.9034%
Previous Retarget:   May 30, 2025 at 7:56 PM  (+4.3760%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Saturday at 2:33 AM  (in 3d 18h 23m 10s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Saturday at 3:03 AM  (in 3d 18h 53m 8s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 6h 37m 11s and 14d 7h 7m 10s

looks like some retooloing and possible heat reductions.

we are down 31 blocks after 1482 are made.

at the moment this diff of 126.9t is the highest ever.


new gear the s23 is coming in jan.


the liquid unit will do 9.5 watt.

the air cooled does 11 watt


my s21xp air cooled do 12.5 watts in the winter and 13.5 watts in the summer


So buying an aircooled s23 is not worth it to me.

altough maybe the s23xp air cooled will do 9 watts


But the big guys are in an interesting spot.

  new liquid cooling = money
 new 3 phase set = money
 new s23 liquid cooled = money
new transformers = money

or let the s21xp air cooled ride.


If I was bigger and ahead money wise  due to good power cost.

Say 10 containers with s21 s21 pro and s21 xp

1000 units 333 each all air cooled not sure how I would upgrade.

Switching to 3 phase liquid cooled s23 units would cost a fortune.

[joker_josue]

If I was bigger and ahead money wise  due to good power cost.

Say 10 containers with s21 s21 pro and s21 xp

1000 units 333 each all air cooled not sure how I would upgrade.

Switching to 3 phase liquid cooled s23 units would cost a fortune.

What was the cost of this investment?
In the worst case scenario, how long would it take to get a return?

[philipma1957]

If I was bigger and ahead money wise  due to good power cost.

Say 10 containers with s21 s21 pro and s21 xp

1000 units 333 each all air cooled not sure how I would upgrade.

Switching to 3 phase liquid cooled s23 units would cost a fortune.

What was the cost of this investment?
In the worst case scenario, how long would it take to get a return?

fast math 3 containers = 300,000 to 350,000

1000 units that average 200+235+277=712 /3= 237 each x 1000
237x1000=237,000 th

237,000x0.055=13,035 usd income every day

13,035x365=4,757,775

4,757,775 yearly income.

units cost 3500+5000+7000=15,500/3 about 5200 a unit on average

5200x1000=5,200,000 + 400,000 = 5,600,000

at least 5,600,000 to set it up on land you already own and it it fairly close to power hookup.

so 6 million may be setup cost.

yearly power 1000 units. 3.6x24=86.4 kwatts a day x 1000 =

86400 kwatts a day i would argue 90,000 kwatts a day.

5 cent power

90,000x.05=4,500 power a day

4,500x365=1,642,500

1,642,500 power.

4,750,000- 1,750,00=3,000,000

i would add 100k for saleries and repair and shit I left out

so you may clear 3,000,000

and you have 6,000,000 to setup

so breakeven could be in two years

for a three container farm with 1,000 mixed s21 series gear.



and then you end up needing better gear again altogether pretend you break even after two years.

your five cent power should allow a profit in the third year. of 2-3 million



so over 3 years 6 million up front to get back 8-9 million of which 6 million needs to pay off the initial investment.

[joker_josue]

so over 3 years 6 million up front to get back 8-9 million of which 6 million needs to pay off the initial investment.

It's a crazy investment.
Do you think there are players making this level of investment, or do they buy more gradually to renew what they have?

I even ask if it is easy to get this type of loan, for this investment plan.

[philipma1957]

so over 3 years 6 million up front to get back 8-9 million of which 6 million needs to pay off the initial investment.

It's a crazy investment.
Do you think there are players making this level of investment, or do they buy more gradually to renew what they have?

I even ask if it is easy to get this type of loan, for this investment plan.

Fin

For new people

This is not a bank loan deal.

This is a have a friend worth 50 mill and he wants to have a diversified investment.

Or this is a guy with a mine that wants a gradual upgrade.

If you came to me with a pocketful of new money .

The first thing we need to secure is cheap power.

And it has become harder to find 5 or 6 or 7 cent contracts.

So let's pretend finding cheap power is possible.

And we can get 5 cents if we buy 3 megawatts

[philipma1957]

so over 3 years 6 million up front to get back 8-9 million of which 6 million needs to pay off the initial investment.

It's a crazy investment.
Do you think there are players making this level of investment, or do they buy more gradually to renew what they have?

I even ask if it is easy to get this type of loan, for this investment plan.

Fin

For new people

This is not a bank loan deal.

This is a have a friend worth 50 mill and he wants to have a diversified investment.

Or this is a guy with a mine that wants a gradual upgrade.

If you came to me with a pocketful of new money .

The first thing we need to secure is cheap power.

And it has become harder to find 5 or 6 or 7 cent contracts.

So let's pretend finding cheap power is possible.

And we can get 5 cents if we buy 3 megawatts

newhedge.com

Latest Block:   902534  (7 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   91.0809%  (1383 / 1518.43 expected, 135.43 behind)

Previous Difficulty:   126982285146989.3                            
Current Difficulty:   126411437451912.2                            
Next Difficulty:   between 115244225477678 and 116256743843526
Next Difficulty Change:   between -8.8340% and -8.0330%
Previous Retarget:   June 13, 2025 at 9:32 PM  (-0.4495%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Sunday at 3:12 AM  (in 4d 16h 35m 14s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Sunday at 6:26 AM  (in 4d 19h 49m 51s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 15d 5h 39m 31s and 15d 8h 54m 9s

diff is off by a day.

could be heat

could be retooling

——————————————

https://newhedge.io/bitcoin/difficulty-estimator

Latest Block:   902739  (14 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   91.4032%  (1588 / 1737.36 expected, 149.36 behind)

Previous Difficulty:   126982285146989.3                            
Current Difficulty:   126411437451912.2                            
Next Difficulty:   between 115638415561479 and 116084309096821
Next Difficulty Change:   between -8.5222% and -8.1695%
Previous Retarget:   June 13, 2025 at 9:32 PM  (-0.4495%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Sunday at 3:43 AM  (in 3d 4h 37m 5s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Sunday at 5:08 AM  (in 3d 6h 2m 32s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 15d 6h 10m 39s and 15d 7h 36m 6s

more than an entire day behind the pace

newhedge.io


Latest Block:   903081  (3 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   92.6221%  (1930 / 2083.74 expected, 153.74 behind)

Previous Difficulty:   126982285146989.3                            
Current Difficulty:   126411437451912.2                            
Next Difficulty:   between 117164608070900 and 117180206346154
Next Difficulty Change:   between -7.3149% and -7.3025%
Previous Retarget:   June 13, 2025 at 9:32 PM  (-0.4495%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Tomorrow at 12:15 AM  (in 0d 15h 25m 34s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Tomorrow at 12:18 AM  (in 0d 15h 28m 30s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 15d 2h 42m 56s and 15d 2h 45m 51s

a full day off the pace 15 vs 14 days for this jump

this jump and last jump will the first time we double dropped jumps in a really long time.


late may 2024 three down jumps into july 2024.

which very likely reflect the spring to summer heat adjustment in Texas

it seems to be repeating this year.


so the drop was nice

Latest Block:   903217  (10 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   108.2283%  (50 / 46.20 expected, 3.8 ahead)

Previous Difficulty:   126411437451912.2                           
Current Difficulty:   116958512019762.1                           
Next Difficulty:   between 117708673225077 and 134449536202701
Next Difficulty Change:   between +0.6414% and +14.9549%
Previous Retarget:   Today at 12:56 AM  (-7.4779%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   July 11, 2025 at 11:23 PM  (in 12d 14h 45m 18s)
Next Retarget (latest):   July 12, 2025 at 11:41 PM  (in 13d 15h 2m 55s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 12d 22h 27m 17s and 13d 22h 44m 54s


126.4 dropped to 116.9 about 7.9%

a th now makes 5.84 cents which is good

the s21 xp burns 87 kwatts  so at 10 cents it is $8.70 usd in power. it earns

277 x 0.0584= $16.17

16.17
  8.70
 7.47 daily profit       937 days to paid off machine

at 9 cents

16.17
  7.83
  8.34 daily profit  839 days to paid off profit

at 8 cents
16.17
  6.96
  9.21  daily profit  760 days  to paid off gear

at 7 cents

16.17
  6.09
10.08  daily profit which is 648 days to paid off gear.