continually being asked when 2025 ATH will be

[franky1]

i continually keep being asked when the 2025 ATH might be and if we already missed it, based on any data, stat or knowledge i have
and i keep saying this:
the 2013 ATH happened 517 days after the 2012 halving
the 2017 ATH happened 557 days after the 2016 halving
the 2021 ATH happened 547 days after the 2020 halving

the average of these are: 540 (basically 1.5years (365+182=547))
2024 halving april 19th + 540 = oct 11th 2025 (or 1.5yr=oct18th)

so the short answer is .. not yet

i add the caveat that 2021 had a "double hump" where the first trajectory to NEAR ATH was just 341 days after 2020 halving
2024 halving april 19th + 341 = march 26th 2025

so the short answer is .. not yet

long answer: probably any time between march and november 2025.. so, not yet

[BenCodie]

The difference between the initial runs of 2013, 2017, and 2020/2021, is that Luna and FTX had an influence on the 2020/2021 period. It messed with the market dynamics, and ultimately messed with the chart-art that Bitcoin could have been (not to mention completely screwed so many people out of their investment artificially and unforeseeable). COVID also started the cycle that technically should have been in 2021 earlier, as the stimulus for that crisis began during 2020.

At least, that's my thoughts on the anomalies that have messed with the calculations.

As for this time around...Trump wants a crash, and if he wants a crash, he will probably get a crash. Have you seen the whitepaper goldpaper for worldlibertyfinancial? It says on the front page that it's all about strengthening the US Dollar. Have you read how much the Trump crypto empire is worth? Over $15 billion spread across enterprises and associates (apparently). If he wants to strengthen the US Dollar, he is going to strengthen it through stablecoins. Imagine if cash is just "forgotten" from the US system, or phased out, and stablecoins take its place? That would be an artificial supply burn. Combine that with a dump of a crypto fortune like Trumps? Say goodbye to whatever cycle prediction you might have...and here we have another anomaly.

Of course, this is all speculation, but it's a theory that I'm happy to post as I believe I've noticed things that others haven't...and franky1, as we both know, when your family and friends are asking about when the top for bitcoin is...it probably means we've already been at the top 

Make sure you have some change in case bargains become available. I also look forward to hearing your thoughts (as always) after you read the goldpaper and the article.

[franky1]

theres always a dump before the pump. its what weeds out the weak.. to then strengthen the support to then progress further
you can even see that in the economic pattern of the difference cycles, and trump was not related to every cycle, so lets not make this pre ATH era another trump story and realise bitcoin has its own economics

so lets not turn bitcoin into some trump drama coin.. bitcoin has its own economics. but if you want to ignore bitcoins own economics and just watch trumps ass shake while you salivate over his every movement, go ahead. says more about you then whats going to happen to bitcoin

also the token branded for trump is something his son(s) came up with and they are ethereum lovers.. but trump and his financial advisers want a bitcoin strategic reserve for the mass common wealth of supporting the US, he doesnt want some memecoin being the backing of the US.
the memecoin is just his family making a side hustle bit of income.. but when debts* come due and his memecoin doesnt pay off.. the SEC will have things to say to him(his son) after his presidency..

*you think trump has $16bill hoarded somewhere to substantiate the valuations of all his brands, oh a lesson to learn awaits you, and i cant wait to see your salivating mouth dry when it happens

i will say this though about trump
this 2nd presidency has shown he now has (ignoring his family) a good advisory team, trump rambles less and stays on message better than last time and he is making some moves that do change things, but trump will always be trump in the end so dont trust all of your wealth on him.

[philipma1957]

The difference between the initial runs of 2013, 2017, and 2020/2021, is that Luna and FTX had an influence on the 2020/2021 period. It messed with the market dynamics, and ultimately messed with the chart-art that Bitcoin could have been (not to mention completely screwed so many people out of their investment artificially and unforeseeable). COVID also started the cycle that technically should have been in 2021 earlier, as the stimulus for that crisis began during 2020.

At least, that's my thoughts on the anomalies that have messed with the calculations.

As for this time around...Trump wants a crash, and if he wants a crash, he will probably get a crash. Have you seen the whitepaper goldpaper for worldlibertyfinancial? It says on the front page that it's all about strengthening the US Dollar. Have you read how much the Trump crypto empire is worth? Over $15 billion spread across enterprises and associates (apparently). If he wants to strengthen the US Dollar, he is going to strengthen it through stablecoins. Imagine if cash is just "forgotten" from the US system, or phased out, and stablecoins take its place? That would be an artificial supply burn. Combine that with a dump of a crypto fortune like Trumps? Say goodbye to whatever cycle prediction you might have...and here we have another anomaly.

Of course, this is all speculation, but it's a theory that I'm happy to post as I believe I've noticed things that others haven't...and franky1, as we both know, when your family and friends are asking about when the top for bitcoin is...it probably means we've already been at the top 

Make sure you have some change in case bargains become available. I also look forward to hearing your thoughts (as always) after you read the goldpaper and the article.

and the musky trumpeter is wreaking havoc with the worlds markets this cycle.

in fact Joe Biden is still the ATH BTC president as out BTC ATH was 4 to 6 hours before the MUSKY TRUMPETER was sworn in.

[franky1]

in fact Joe Biden is still the ATH BTC president as out BTC ATH was 4 to 6 hours before the MUSKY TRUMPETER was sworn in.

i seen your topic. i was going to vote for options march-november but cant choose more then one option
i dont see the ATH hitting in march, but not as late as end of october.

summer/autumn will be an eventful period


my view:
if it was strictly following the pattern. and it was impossible to break the pattern then i would be saying early half of october..

however because elites and whales also done same math on the pattern. they are anticipating the possible patterns suggested date, thus whales will be trading in anticipation earlier which will affect the pattern to bring it earlier.
much like how their was a double hump in 2021 instead of just the november 2021ATH. this time we will probably just see the ATH happen sooner than anticipated

[Aanuoluwatofunmi]

i continually keep being asked when the 2025 ATH might be and if we already missed it, based on any data, stat or knowledge i have
and i keep saying this:
the 2013 ATH happened 517 days after the 2012 halving
the 2017 ATH happened 557 days after the 2016 halving
the 2021 ATH happened 547 days after the 2020 halving

the average of these are: 540
2024 halving april 19th + 540 = oct 11th 2025

so the short answer is .. not yet

I seem to agree with you to an extent on this, because I've also been hearing people saying that the 2024 halving is going to take a new dimension slightly different form the previous ones, which equally means we are going to have more prolonged duration for the bullrun regardless of the market bear, all time high for the final stage has not been reached yet, another reason backing this up is the way the world is giving positive moves towards bitcoin ever since the presidential election, unlike the way things were much harder with harsh conditions.

i add the caveat that 2021 had a "double hump" where the first trajectory to NEAR ATH was just 341 days after 2020 halving
2024 halving april 19th + 341 = march 26th 2025

so the short answer is .. not yet

long answer: probably any time between march and november 2025.. so, not yet

With this, we can ride on, keep speculating, buy the dip the more and hold, i hope to see many reference to this thread by the ned of this year for positive outcome.

[wheelz1200]

I have never dome the exact math but always though it was in and around 500 days after halving didnt know it was that close.  I habe been looking at summer 2025 so we'll see but history tends to repeat itself in crypto.  Priced into the halving then a consolodation, shake oit and then the bull run.  I think we are right before the real bull run.  Some of the last chances to stock up on some sats.

[philipma1957]

I have never dome the exact math but always though it was in and around 500 days after halving didnt know it was that close.  I habe been looking at summer 2025 so we'll see but history tends to repeat itself in crypto.  Priced into the halving then a consolodation, shake oit and then the bull run.  I think we are right before the real bull run.  Some of the last chances to stock up on some sats.

yeah stacking is good.

My pile grows ever larger

[Strongkored]

If I remember correctly, the 2020 halving, the price increase began to be seen and the increase was stable starting from May 2021, so it is possible that May this year will be the beginning of the Bitcoin price to increase periodically before starting to slowly decrease at the end of the year.
However, it is possible that the pattern will change, what I can only believe is that the Bitcoin ATH for the 2024 halving has not happened yet.

[uchegod-21]

i continually keep being asked when the 2025 ATH might be and if we already missed it, based on any data, stat or knowledge i have
and i keep saying this:
the 2013 ATH happened 517 days after the 2012 halving
the 2017 ATH happened 557 days after the 2016 halving
the 2021 ATH happened 547 days after the 2020 halving

the average of these are: 540
2024 halving april 19th + 540 = oct 11th 2025

so the short answer is .. not yet

i add the caveat that 2021 had a "double hump" where the first trajectory to NEAR ATH was just 341 days after 2020 halving
2024 halving april 19th + 341 = march 26th 2025

so the short answer is .. not yet

long answer: probably any time between march and november 2025.. so, not yet

I so much trust franky1 and his judgement about bitcoin price. Dude is so grounded that I have followed his prediction even when the whole community was in doubt. In as much as bitcoin is unpredictable, but with all modesty, if there is anyone to believe in this space, it is Franky...

I remember 2022 bear market, everyone was afraid that BTC will see $10k, some where even predicting $1k or $0 lol. Franky1 said that the window was from $15k to $75k and it will last for so long and behold it happened with so much accuracy.

I have to quote this thread so that I will have it to look back when the real ATH hits.
I wish I have an smerit to give, even if just 1

[franky1]

I remember 2022 bear market, everyone was afraid that BTC will see $10k, some where even predicting $1k or $0 lol. Franky1 said that the window was from $15k to $75k and it will last for so long and behold it happened with so much accuracy.

I have to quote this thread so that I will have it to look back when the real ATH hits.
I wish I have an smerit to give, even if just 1

shhhh
current window of Q1 2025 $75k->$375k but shh dont tell anyone (window calculated today)

i personally am going to keep to a safer value:$60k->$350k:premium.. which is from Q4 2024 math, which is still in play as the q1-2025 is not locked in yet

[philipma1957]

i continually keep being asked when the 2025 ATH might be and if we already missed it, based on any data, stat or knowledge i have
and i keep saying this:
the 2013 ATH happened 517 days after the 2012 halving
the 2017 ATH happened 557 days after the 2016 halving
the 2021 ATH happened 547 days after the 2020 halving

the average of these are: 540
2024 halving april 19th + 540 = oct 11th 2025

so the short answer is .. not yet

i add the caveat that 2021 had a "double hump" where the first trajectory to NEAR ATH was just 341 days after 2020 halving
2024 halving april 19th + 341 = march 26th 2025

so the short answer is .. not yet

long answer: probably any time between march and november 2025.. so, not yet

I so much trust franky1 and his judgement about bitcoin price. Dude is so grounded that I have followed his prediction even when the whole community was in doubt. In as much as bitcoin is unpredictable, but with all modesty, if there is anyone to believe in this space, it is Franky...

I remember 2022 bear market, everyone was afraid that BTC will see $10k, some where even predicting $1k or $0 lol. Franky1 said that the window was from $15k to $75k and it will last for so long and behold it happened with so much accuracy.

I have to quote this thread so that I will have it to look back when the real ATH hits.
I wish I have an smerit to give, even if just 1

I tossed him some

[BenCodie]

I have never dome the exact math but always though it was in and around 500 days after halving didnt know it was that close.  I habe been looking at summer 2025 so we'll see but history tends to repeat itself in crypto.  Priced into the halving then a consolodation, shake oit and then the bull run.  I think we are right before the real bull run.  Some of the last chances to stock up on some sats.

I disagree that history tends to repeat itself. In fact, someone who is relying on history repeating exactly has probably found themselves in an inaccurate position in the past. I do agree that it rhymes, that things happen similarly but usually with a slight twist that deviates it from exactly the same way that it happened in the past. I don't think we are right before the bull run, I do believe the next bull run will be before 2027 (maybe even before 2026), though I do think a twist is in store before it happens - one that will shake a lot of the market out before it begins.

The difference between the initial runs of 2013, 2017, and 2020/2021, is that Luna and FTX had an influence on the 2020/2021 period. It messed with the market dynamics, and ultimately messed with the chart-art that Bitcoin could have been (not to mention completely screwed so many people out of their investment artificially and unforeseeable). COVID also started the cycle that technically should have been in 2021 earlier, as the stimulus for that crisis began during 2020.

At least, that's my thoughts on the anomalies that have messed with the calculations.

As for this time around...Trump wants a crash, and if he wants a crash, he will probably get a crash. Have you seen the whitepaper goldpaper for worldlibertyfinancial? It says on the front page that it's all about strengthening the US Dollar. Have you read how much the Trump crypto empire is worth? Over $15 billion spread across enterprises and associates (apparently). If he wants to strengthen the US Dollar, he is going to strengthen it through stablecoins. Imagine if cash is just "forgotten" from the US system, or phased out, and stablecoins take its place? That would be an artificial supply burn. Combine that with a dump of a crypto fortune like Trumps? Say goodbye to whatever cycle prediction you might have...and here we have another anomaly.

Of course, this is all speculation, but it's a theory that I'm happy to post as I believe I've noticed things that others haven't...and franky1, as we both know, when your family and friends are asking about when the top for bitcoin is...it probably means we've already been at the top 

Make sure you have some change in case bargains become available. I also look forward to hearing your thoughts (as always) after you read the goldpaper and the article.

and the musky trumpeter is wreaking havoc with the worlds markets this cycle.

in fact Joe Biden is still the ATH BTC president as out BTC ATH was 4 to 6 hours before the MUSKY TRUMPETER was sworn in.

Exactly. They're both making very large and unusual moves, which is the twist I am referring to in my last post. I am almost certain that something big/a black swan event will happen for the next bull run. Everyone should strap in tight, be diversified, keep a reserve for the bargains, and HODL for what's to come before the next run in my opinion.

[franky1]

I disagree that history tends to repeat itself. In fact, someone who is relying on history repeating exactly has probably found themselves in an inaccurate position in the past. I do agree that it rhymes, that things happen similarly but usually with a slight twist that deviates it from exactly the same way that it happened in the past. I don't think we are right before the bull run, I do believe the next bull run will be before 2027 (maybe even before 2026), though I do think a twist is in store before it happens - one that will shake a lot of the market out before it begins.
...
Exactly. They're both making very large and unusual moves, which is the twist I am referring to in my last post. I am almost certain that something big/a black swan event will happen for the next bull run. Everyone should strap in tight, be diversified, keep a reserve for the bargains, and HODL for what's to come before the next run in my opinion.

no one, especially not me cannot predict exact price a low or high test will actually hit nor exact calendar date the lows/highs will hit. but by having datapoints which strengthen as time goes on, the natural economic logic is that whales, savvi traders, intelligent economists will all use these datapoints to strengthen results colectively and thus will be risk adverse by not pushing the boundaries(they become their own self proclaimed prophecy)
EG the cost boundaries of testing top in 2021 could have reached $75k, but only reached closer to $70k
EG the cost boundaries of testing bottom in 2023 could have touched $15k, but only touched closer to $16k
EG all other cycles lows and highs stayed in their window too

but as time goes on and more datapoints happen, i am more aware that news propaganda of celebrity/influencer/politics does not replace bitcoins natural economic logic of projected limits of a cycle, it may just add a bit of spice/volatility/drama within the windows boundaries(a bit of variety inbetween)

EG elon buying bitcoin pre dec2020(sec filing) but news media announced it feb 2021... so idiots pretended elon buying bitcoin was the sole cause of the october2021 ATH.. but when actually knowing the data points of previous halving->ATH 'days since' would have said the october2021 ATH was due to happen (before november) thus it happened when it happened, no matter if elon news happened or not..
the elon buying bitcoin news just caused extra volatility spice(first hump in april2021) within the boundaries of the cost, 'days since' windows

elon news didnt replace 2021 ATH prophecy of before november 2021 (happened october2021) it just added an extra entertaining first hump before the natural ATH was to occur

EG many people are saying trumps inauguration and 'strategic reserve' announcement has already priced in 2025 ATH... yet i strongly believe we have yet to see bitcoins natural economic logic test of a 2025 ATH (between march-october 2025 but presumably closer to the autumn side of the year)

[Justbillywitt]

i continually keep being asked when the 2025 ATH might be and if we already missed it, based on any data, stat or knowledge i have
and i keep saying this:
the 2013 ATH happened 517 days after the 2012 halving
the 2017 ATH happened 557 days after the 2016 halving
the 2021 ATH happened 547 days after the 2020 halving

the average of these are: 540
2024 halving april 19th + 540 = oct 11th 2025

so the short answer is .. not yet

i add the caveat that 2021 had a "double hump" where the first trajectory to NEAR ATH was just 341 days after 2020 halving
2024 halving april 19th + 341 = march 26th 2025

so the short answer is .. not yet

long answer: probably any time between march and november 2025.. so, not yet

Thanks for this, at least I now have an answer to give to my colleagues who has been continually asking me billy when is the bull run going to happen. I keep saying continue holding, the bull will definitely happen. At least with your explanation, I now have a detailed explanation to give. Even if it doesn't go accurately, at least it will relieve me from answering questions regarding the bullrun.

[Jawhead999]

I already predict the peak will happen in Q4 this year, but quite interesting that you also consider the "double hump" in this year because in the first and second halving event, there were no "double hump". If there's a double hump in this year, we can expect Bitcoin price might fall to $70K-$80K because in the previous super cycle it fell to $30K from $60K.

but as time goes on and more datapoints happen, i am more aware that news propaganda of celebrity/influencer/politics does not replace bitcoins natural economic logic of projected limits of a cycle, it may just add a bit of spice/volatility/drama within the windows boundaries(a bit of variety inbetween)

We might see "they" have more power to influence Bitcoin price in the next super cycle because starting from 2026, banks will able to accumulate Bitcoin.

[franky1]

I already predict the peak will happen in Q4 this year, but quite interesting that you also consider the "double hump" in this year because in the first and second halving event, there were no "double hump". If there's a double hump in this year, we can expect Bitcoin price might fall to $70K-$80K because in the previous super cycle it fell to $30K from $60K.

i never said there would be a double hump this year. i just said to NOT expect the real market natural economic logic ATH to already be priced in, and expect some drama before the next ATH due before november 2025
but yes the market still has many months to play volatile games and yes it could decide to test the bottom and yes i agree a $70k-$80k test can be possible.. and be a anti-hump before then rising to the true ATH. i never suggested there would be a double hump this year

but as time goes on and more datapoints happen, i am more aware that news propaganda of celebrity/influencer/politics does not replace bitcoins natural economic logic of projected limits of a cycle, it may just add a bit of spice/volatility/drama within the windows boundaries(a bit of variety inbetween)

We might see "they" have more power to influence Bitcoin price in the next super cycle because starting from 2026, banks will able to accumulate Bitcoin.

most of the trades of institutions are done OTC, not on the public price discovery exchanges(even coinbase has its own separate market for institutions)
just look how everyone anticipated the ETF launches would cause a ATH... but it didnt

yes the institutions wont cause a price spike.. but the media speculation of announcing bank hoarding amounts might cause gossip and speculative DRAMA to make minnow traders react to the news and cause some price drama. but thats not going to break the bitcoin cycles pattern, and is just standard media drama of temporary price wiggling

but i do laugh that soo many people think trump will make bitcoin break all records and multiply the price far beyond economic logic

..
2026 might be a interesting year to see how bitcoins economic logic of being a correction season continues as such or whether the trumpettes were right and we see their silly $1m ATH jump to the moon due to elon and trump(personally i dont have faith in the trumpette prediction)

[el kaka22]

I agree with the spring calculation, it had a double pump last time so I am sensing that we could have that again, However we need to realize that we already had a pump? I mean that move from under 20k to reaching 100k is already a pump isn't it?

We had the first one as under 20k to reaching back to 70k, and then when we dropped to 60k we moved back to 100k after the elections as well. So in theory, we could say that we even had a double pump already. Of course that doesn't mean I do not believe in another pump, I believe in another one, I am waiting for it. Spring will be great, but if spring isn't great then we are going to have one during the fall, well aptly named "fall" but we will have an increase during autumn lol.

[tabas]

If I remember correctly, the 2020 halving, the price increase began to be seen and the increase was stable starting from May 2021, so it is possible that May this year will be the beginning of the Bitcoin price to increase periodically before starting to slowly decrease at the end of the year.
However, it is possible that the pattern will change, what I can only believe is that the Bitcoin ATH for the 2024 halving has not happened yet.

We will only know that the pattern has changed if we're on the final run of it. But I agree with franky, we're not yet on it. And with the range of months that he's mentioned. It's making people believe that I've read some good analysis that it might be at the top of August-October(Q3-Q4) of this year. Yet, no one will ever know if we'll see it there yet. So everything is in estimations. And the question here, are you going to take profits if ever the peak shows up?

[KingsDen]

I remember 2022 bear market, everyone was afraid that BTC will see $10k, some where even predicting $1k or $0 lol. Franky1 said that the window was from $15k to $75k and it will last for so long and behold it happened with so much accuracy.

I have to quote this thread so that I will have it to look back when the real ATH hits.
I wish I have an smerit to give, even if just 1

shhhh
current window of Q1 2025 $75k->$375k but shh dont tell anyone (window calculated today)

i personally am going to keep to a safer value:$60k->$350k:premium.. which is from Q4 2024 math, which is still in play as the q1-2025 is not locked in yet

$60k - $350k for Q1 2025?
This will be a great shock to the entire cryptocurrency industry. Do you realize that Q1 2025 is almost about half spent. If these values are to play, we should be somewhere around $170k to $200k by now.