oda.krell
Legendary
 Offline
Activity: 1470
Merit: 1007
|
 |
April 01, 2015, 01:08:56 PM |
|
Nothing April foolish or trolling about considering evaluation on a log scale... Accessible explanation here for example, on why quants tend to look at log returns instead of "raw" returns. |
Not sure which Bitcoin wallet you should use? Get Electrum!Electrum is an open-source lightweight client: fast, user friendly, and 100% secure. Download the source or executables for Windows/OSX/Linux/Android from, and only from, the official Electrum homepage.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
"Bitcoin: the cutting edge of begging technology." -- Giraffe.BTC
|
|
|
Advertised sites are not endorsed by the Bitcoin Forum. They may be unsafe, untrustworthy, or illegal in your jurisdiction.
|
BTCat (OP)
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 1960
Merit: 1010
|
|
April 01, 2015, 01:35:43 PM |
|
Nothing April foolish or trolling about considering evaluation on a log scale... Accessible explanation here for example, on why quants tend to look at log returns instead of "raw" returns. Thanks. The contest was closed for entrees on June 1 so the $417 guess did not take part of the competition. So no matter the outcome of your puzzle it doesn't change the name of the winner. |
|
|
|
|
|
JorgeStolfi
|
|
April 01, 2015, 01:53:37 PM |
|
No, there is fun enough already in the contest result.  I was serious. When analyzing prices of stocks, currencies, gold, etc, it is best to use a log scale because it turns equal relative changes into equal displacements. For example, a change from 100 to 200 will look just as big as a change from 1000 to 2000 (both being 2x). Also, a drop from 100 to 50 looks just as big as a rise from 100 to 200 (one is the inverse of the other). In that sense, 417 is closer to 240 than 135, because 417/240 = 1.73 is less than 240/135 = 1.77. |
Academic interest in bitcoin only. Not owner, not trader, very skeptical of its longterm success.
|
|
|
|
ensurance982
|
|
April 03, 2015, 09:00:40 PM |
|
135$
Just for the records So I say $6.666 Wow, this hurts... fonzie being closer than basically everyone else. Yeah that just hurts so much more than the price alone does these days. But hey, I think we're headed up from here  |
We Support Currencies: BTC, LTC, USD, EUR, GBP
|
|
|
|
indiemax
|
|
April 04, 2015, 05:40:03 PM |
|
Interesting thread,someone ought to do one for this year  |
|
|
|
|
BTCat (OP)
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 1960
Merit: 1010
|
|
April 04, 2015, 06:00:46 PM |
|
Interesting thread,someone ought to do one for this year Here you go: Predict the price of Bitcoin on 1 April 2016 - win CBX (Crypto Bullion) https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1012254.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
JorgeStolfi
|
|
April 04, 2015, 06:53:20 PM |
|
Great! But you may want to edit the thread title (or start a new thread), to attract more prophets... |
Academic interest in bitcoin only. Not owner, not trader, very skeptical of its longterm success.
|
|
|
BTCat (OP)
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 1960
Merit: 1010
|
|
April 04, 2015, 07:05:18 PM |
|
Great! But you may want to edit the thread title (or start a new thread), to attract more prophets... I made a new thread just click it. Do not guess here this one is old. For discussion we can keep it open though. |
|
|
|
|
yefi
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 2842
Merit: 1511
|
|
April 04, 2015, 07:08:36 PM |
|
Pretty funny how everybody was drifting on a velvety wave of optimism. The median response was about 14 times the actual value on 1st April. p.s. the Fonz is too cool for you all.  |
|
|
|
|
|
JorgeStolfi
|
|
April 04, 2015, 07:09:57 PM |
|
I made a new thread just click it.
Oops sorry, stupid of me... |
Academic interest in bitcoin only. Not owner, not trader, very skeptical of its longterm success.
|
|
|
BTCat (OP)
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 1960
Merit: 1010
|
|
April 05, 2015, 09:55:17 AM
Last edit: April 11, 2015, 07:33:15 PM by BTCat |
|
"If the winner does not respond within 1 month after he has won I keep the right to pay the prize to the next best guess and his entree is invalidated."
Ok, ofcourse I should have added something like this last year already but hadn't thought about it. It's a very reasonable period to claim your prize so I will still add it.
|
|
|
|
|
BTCat (OP)
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 1960
Merit: 1010
|
|
April 11, 2015, 07:37:23 PM |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
fonzie
|
|
April 11, 2015, 08:09:18 PM |
|
Thanks to BTCat for the prize, i just received it.
|
"To know death, Otto, you have to fuck life in the gallbladder" www.hsbc.com - The world´s local bank "These FUDsters are insane egomaniacs that just want cheap BTC" - oblivi |
|
|
|
