confidence is a dangerous thing

[swogerino]

i have been making predictions about this one sport but not really turning my predictions into bets officially meaning i have yet to actually put money on where my mouth is

anyway in this sport i have been following, i have made two claims that ended up being true i wouldn't say that it is straightforward so even i am surprised with how accurate my predictions were when my basis were honestly a lot of optimism and trust to the athletes to be motivated enough to perform well after previous horrible results

anyway because my predictions have been correct i now feel drunk in power and i feel like i could get another prediction right for the next sporting event i am considering whether i should try and officially bet on it? am i actually good at analyzing things or have i just been lucky?

It is always difficult to get such predictions right especially when in sport betting there can be external factors that can influence the outcome, in sport betting there is the referee, a player committing an own goal or the forward players missing a lot of opportunities and I mean clamorous opportunities. Let me make an example taken from today in F1 where if you had bet for the Ferraris, both of them to finish in the top 6 and they did you would have won, yet both cars were disqualified for some sort of aerodynamics misuse and as such your bet would have been lost, this sucks yeah, and that is enough reason to show that we don't have any real power over events we bet on.

[_BlackStar]

i have been making predictions about this one sport but not really turning my predictions into bets officially meaning i have yet to actually put money on where my mouth is

anyway in this sport i have been following, i have made two claims that ended up being true i wouldn't say that it is straightforward so even i am surprised with how accurate my predictions were when my basis were honestly a lot of optimism and trust to the athletes to be motivated enough to perform well after previous horrible results

anyway because my predictions have been correct i now feel drunk in power and i feel like i could get another prediction right for the next sporting event i am considering whether i should try and officially bet on it? am i actually good at analyzing things or have i just been lucky?

Basically - there are times when some of your predictions come true, but there are times when some of them may be wrong. Gambling has wins and losses - you can have winning streaks and losing streaks, meaning there is always a risk that you need to consider before risking your money. If you are 100% sure about your predictions - then gamble only with 25% of your budget, save the rest for tomorrow or another opportunity. If you win the bet with that 25% budget - then you are lucky, but if you lose then you only lose 25%.

[cryptoaddictchie]

The possibility is low, Op is only influenced by gambler's fallacy, just like yourself, cryptoaddictchie, a form of cognitive biases that convince players that past events determines what's going to happen in the future. And winning big is among the reason why gamers try to fix themselves into believing that analysis could make a difference in hitting the jackpot someday.

Well its like in trading past historical results are used and consider for potential price. Well I didnt say he will win jackpot due to this but he can have a chance to win or profit if he could tried his skills on predicting. Theres a difference, plus Im only stating what on my mind.

If thats a bias then so be it. How come you cant use your skills for that. Yes I get it luck is in play, but this is just an added skills for gambling. Dont you think others doesnt employ it?

[passwordnow]

i feel like i could get another prediction right for the next sporting event i am considering whether i should try and officially bet on it? am i actually good at analyzing things or have i just been lucky?

Tell me your predictions and let's try to bet on it. But it shouldn't only me that will bet for it but also you, so if I win money you also win money and if I lose money, it won't only be losing. It's a matter of trust to yourself, if you did these test bets and you were successful with them. Believe me, it's going to be different when actual money is involved. You can be as good as you are without bet on it and try to predict but it's going to be unknown if you won't give yourself a chance to do it.

[Churchillvv]

I guess you have to experiment what you have been preaching so at this point you will either be lucky or loss so try and figure out that what exactly is fact whether it's you knowing how to predict or luck has just been by your side this while.

But of course you might have doubt yet trying with what you can afford to loss will put you on a safer side.

i feel like i could get another prediction right for the next sporting event i am considering whether i should try and officially bet on it? am i actually good at analyzing things or have i just been lucky?

Tell me your predictions and let's try to bet on it. But it shouldn't only me that will bet for it but also you, so if I win money you also win money and if I lose money, it won't only be losing.

I like the idea here but I also would have to join the experiment but I'm not sure OP will be ready to play such deals with anyone. Lol

[mcdouglasx]

anyway because my predictions have been correct i now feel drunk in power and i feel like i could get another prediction right for the next sporting event i am considering whether i should try and officially bet on it? am i actually good at analyzing things or have i just been lucky?

Of course, it’s easy to think that getting a couple of bets right makes you an expert, but that could just be luck. Intuition can trick us into believing we have more control than we actually do. To really know if you understand the game, you need to look at a much larger set of predictions over time. That way, you can see if there’s a pattern or if it was just chance. Don’t get too confident with those occasional wins, because bias can mess with your judgment. Take it slow and keep learning. Consistency is what truly shows expertise.

[Hatchy]

i have been making predictions about this one sport but not really turning my predictions into bets officially meaning i have yet to actually put money on where my mouth is

anyway in this sport i have been following, i have made two claims that ended up being true i wouldn't say that it is straightforward so even i am surprised with how accurate my predictions were when my basis were honestly a lot of optimism and trust to the athletes to be motivated enough to perform well after previous horrible results

anyway because my predictions have been correct i now feel drunk in power and i feel like i could get another prediction right for the next sporting event i am considering whether i should try and officially bet on it? am i actually good at analyzing things or have i just been lucky?

You are being lucky mate and your mindset might be playing a good trick on you. Best advice, don't get carried away. How ever you have been placing those bets that have made your win then, maje sure to stick to it. Sometimes alot of gamblers might be fooled by their wins into thinking that they are experts and they might try to increase their risk and then end up losing so much than they expected. Lucky us on your side but expect anything to happen don't get carried away

[Slow death]

anyway because my predictions have been correct i now feel drunk in power and i feel like i could get another prediction right for the next sporting event i am considering whether i should try and officially bet on it? am i actually good at analyzing things or have i just been lucky?

Getting 2 games right does not mean that you have become a sports betting guru. You should test more games to see how many times you will get it right. You should also not take into account bets with odds below @1.70. If you are choosing games with low odds, something like games below @1.70 and you have been getting it right, then you are not doing anything. When you put your money in, you will see that in the long run you will be at a loss.

[Wakate]

i have been making predictions about this one sport but not really turning my predictions into bets officially meaning i have yet to actually put money on where my mouth is

anyway in this sport i have been following, i have made two claims that ended up being true i wouldn't say that it is straightforward so even i am surprised with how accurate my predictions were when my basis were honestly a lot of optimism and trust to the athletes to be motivated enough to perform well after previous horrible results

anyway because my predictions have been correct i now feel drunk in power and i feel like i could get another prediction right for the next sporting event i am considering whether i should try and officially bet on it? am i actually good at analyzing things or have i just been lucky?

If you know that your predictions are always giving your profits, then you don't need to be scared to make another prediction if you are certain that the next one might end up becoming a win. We are not always right when it comes to gambling which is something you need to understand. Even though you keep making predictions that keep becoming a win, do not forget that a time will come when your predictions might not continue to become a win. This is a normal thing when it comes to gambling. All I will advise you is to keep trying your luck because their are even gamblers that haven't made any significant profit in 2 months straight.

[Jating]

i have been making predictions about this one sport but not really turning my predictions into bets officially meaning i have yet to actually put money on where my mouth is

anyway in this sport i have been following, i have made two claims that ended up being true i wouldn't say that it is straightforward so even i am surprised with how accurate my predictions were when my basis were honestly a lot of optimism and trust to the athletes to be motivated enough to perform well after previous horrible results

anyway because my predictions have been correct i now feel drunk in power and i feel like i could get another prediction right for the next sporting event i am considering whether i should try and officially bet on it? am i actually good at analyzing things or have i just been lucky?

Its' double edge sword, when you are winning you feel that you are invincible and can't make any wrong predictions. Of course, you might be lucky or just you analyze the game correctly as per your experience. And with that you hope that you can extend that winning streak of yours.

However, there are days that all your predictions are not going to fall into pieces but you are still confident on your next bet and look forward for breaking your losing streak. But what if you losses again? So confidence has both negative and positive consequences.

[Ryu_Ar1]

We must realize that in the end, even though what we have done is very good and successful in some stakes, we cannot be overconfident because of that because after all, bad luck sometimes always comes when we are overconfident.

Not that we should not be confident because it clearly must be done because after all when the choice has been made then indirectly we must be prepared to be brave in accepting risks but that does not mean it should be a reference on the pretext that we can do everything just because we got the advantage in the previous bet.
Because after all we have to be ourselves and not be overly confident in something just because the pride of the gamble we did got a big profit before.

Don't let the confidence that we have destroy hope in the future because we are too sure of our instincts so that we forget the objectivity in the bets made.

[Judith87403]

i have been making predictions about this one sport but not really turning my predictions into bets officially meaning i have yet to actually put money on where my mouth is

anyway in this sport i have been following, i have made two claims that ended up being true i wouldn't say that it is straightforward so even i am surprised with how accurate my predictions were when my basis were honestly a lot of optimism and trust to the athletes to be motivated enough to perform well after previous horrible results

anyway because my predictions have been correct i now feel drunk in power and i feel like i could get another prediction right for the next sporting event i am considering whether i should try and officially bet on it? am i actually good at analyzing things or have i just been lucky?

Of course is always like that most times in gambling were your analysis will just work exactly as you predicted, why sometimes your analysis can also fail you, of course is always like this remember? But for the fact that you made two claims that ended up being a true doesn't mean it will keep working for you. Though you can also decide to give it another trial and it works, but that does not make you an expert predictor. Because it could be that you're still in the wining line. So therefore when trying next time don't hope for a particular outcome because it might not work as you expected this time.

[Agbamoni]

i have been making predictions about this one sport but not really turning my predictions into bets officially meaning i have yet to actually put money on where my mouth is

anyway in this sport i have been following, i have made two claims that ended up being true i wouldn't say that it is straightforward so even i am surprised with how accurate my predictions were when my basis were honestly a lot of optimism and trust to the athletes to be motivated enough to perform well after previous horrible results

anyway because my predictions have been correct i now feel drunk in power and i feel like i could get another prediction right for the next sporting event i am considering whether i should try and officially bet on it? am i actually good at analyzing things or have i just been lucky?

If you know that your predictions are always giving your profits, then you don't need to be scared to make another prediction if you are certain that the next one might end up becoming a win. We are not always right when it comes to gambling which is something you need to understand. Even though you keep making predictions that keep becoming a win, do not forget that a time will come when your predictions might not continue to become a win. This is a normal thing when it comes to gambling. All I will advise you is to keep trying your luck because their are even gamblers that haven't made any significant profit in 2 months straight.

I don't tally with your advice. It is normal for someone who is winning consistently to gambler more but with carefulness. If he feels he should gamble again after, then he can pause. It will be bad if he keeps gambling more and more and end up losing all the profits he made because of over confidence. Everything in gambling is luck. No matter how lucky we are we should know is not going to last forever. If certainty is possible in gambling then no one will be losing at all, for someone like me who can be very good at predicting games then i will surely be winning steady.

[passwordnow]

i feel like i could get another prediction right for the next sporting event i am considering whether i should try and officially bet on it? am i actually good at analyzing things or have i just been lucky?

Tell me your predictions and let's try to bet on it. But it shouldn't only me that will bet for it but also you, so if I win money you also win money and if I lose money, it won't only be losing.

I like the idea here but I also would have to join the experiment but I'm not sure OP will be ready to play such deals with anyone. Lol

Let's see, it's only going to take a matter of time for him until he's got enough to make a decision whether to do so or not. I think it's a good experiment and putting up a few bucks on it won't hurt our pockets for betting someone's prediction. I've done this a lot of time so it won't be a problem to me but if it's a problem to the predictor himself, that's when we get out.

[Sandra_hakeem]

anyway because my predictions have been correct i now feel drunk in power and i feel like i could get another prediction right for the next sporting event i am considering whether i should try and officially bet on it? am i actually good at analyzing things or have i just been lucky?

Okay... So what do you wanna hear? You just said you felt drunk in power, which obviously means that you know that ain't normal, but then what more is it if not that you're just being lucky? If your guts challenges you to a battle, making you question your skills, be careful! For better clarity, I'd say just try to make another prediction. This time, wager a little amount that you can afford to lose and see the miracle.

Yes, while betting, confidence is very bad.

That's one of fastest ways to drain himself to zero balance. I think that's also like the simplest hurdle on the way for a beginner like himself... Too much confidence (if not placed under control) can always change the purpose of why you started gambling in the first place.

[Orpichukwu]

anyway because my predictions have been correct i now feel drunk in power and i feel like i could get another prediction right for the next sporting event i am considering whether i should try and officially bet on it? am i actually good at analyzing things or have i just been lucky?

You are actually free to be feeling that way, but as you have made some predictions and it ends up playing just as you have predicted, you might regret why you did not place a bet on them, but that shouldn't make you use money which is bigger than what you can afford to lose to place a bet in your next prediction. Instead, I will let you try it out with any little amount of money next time to see how things will work out. After all, even if you lose the money, there won't be much difference since you can afford to lose it.

[Sanitough]

Could you share your record with us? How many games have you predicted so far, and what’s your winning rate?

It has to be based on a large number of games and predictions, otherwise, it’s too early to conclude that your system really works. In actual betting, there are both winning and losing streaks, but what truly matters is being profitable in the long run. That’s the key: long-term results.

And just to point out, betting on paper is very different from placing real bets... but I’d still love to see how you’ve done so far!

[Hispo]

I would not even dare to do what you are doing and try to predict games without having a minimum of money at stake, because of exactly what you are experimenting. You could have gotten a good amount of money had you put money where your mouth was, but you did not.
Now you will feel tempted to do the same again and perhaps, even betting more than you should because of the previous experiences you had with your predictions (which turned out to be correct).

Confidence is okey, but here we are talking about over-confidence and creating high expectations on the accuracy or your future bets.
Be careful with that.

[EluguHcman]

am i actually good at analyzing things or have i just been lucky?

It is okay counting on yourself when it gets to do with bets which I am sure that everyone does. But what I would not encouraging is believing your high esteem and just bets with an unbudgeted amount just because you think you have become a super predictors after seeing accurate results on playing a demo game.

OP I don't believe you are that perfect on predicting future outcomes of the sports games like the football, based on your story you are as lucky as sometimes when we place some uninteresting bets just by trial and lucky to win despites the fact we did not sit to analyze the games.

So you can still go on and place the bet as long you are a bettor and always bets according to what you can afford. It would still part of the game that you will either win or loose.

So I would say you were just lucky giving the right prediction but if you think it is of your possession, then I will challenge you to tell me what outcome of the Manchester United and the Manchester City match would become comes April 4 and the Chelsea and Brentford match on April 6.

I will keep your prediction to this undated after the match.
So you can give your predictions let's keep it rolling.
Meanwhile... I need a accuracy as you may believe you are one professional in gambling that is exempted win by luck but of your capacity.

[lienfaye]

anyway because my predictions have been correct i now feel drunk in power and i feel like i could get another prediction right for the next sporting event i am considering whether i should try and officially bet on it? am i actually good at analyzing things or have i just been lucky?

In sports betting, knowledge is an advantage to know what could be the result of the game. Therefore, your prediction is not entirely because of luck, your knowledge about it has a participation to maximize your chance to predict it correctly.

However, luck is still a major to win in gambling regardless of what you're playing (sports betting, casino games etc.) Hence don't be too confident and have a less expectation. Because it's more joyful to win when you least expect it.