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Author Topic: confidence is a dangerous thing  (Read 1323 times)
AmaGold70
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April 09, 2025, 10:40:08 AM
 #221

anyway because my predictions have been correct i now feel drunk in power and i feel like i could get another prediction right for the next sporting event i am considering whether i should try and officially bet on it? am i actually good at analyzing things or have i just been lucky?

Well, you don't need to feel like that because when you are too confident you could be clouded by pride and it can cause you to make some mistakes too. If you are always lucky in winning your bets, congratulations and keep up with what ever strategy you are using but just be smart to know that you will can also lose when you don't expect and that's why you must only bet with the amount you can afford to lose.
Yes, actually there is nothing to feel about because when someone is often winning in gambling over too confident can actually makes you to have some pride that would lead you into making some mistake at the end.  At least with what you have said I think is the best way because anybody that is always winning in gambling should no that is your luck not by any strategy and the right way for you to be safe is by betting with only what you can afford.

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April 09, 2025, 11:58:21 AM
 #222

It is possible that you are quite good at analyzing but there is also a possibility that previously you were nothing more than lucky, you can evaluate what you analyzed in the previous bet that led you to victory, if you find that the analysis you did really had a big contribution in achieving the previous victory then you can do the same thing on the next bet, but one thing I will suggest is to make sure that you only bet using a small amount, an amount that you can afford to lose, because of course gambling is still gambling.

You are right mate, even if he is not good in making accurate prediction, he should still not forget that gambling can always bring an uncertain result especially when you don't expect the result. He should also make sure to always use his strategy to be able to always make more accurate prediction. If he is too overconfident or cultivate the attitude of pride, he might not be able to do the predictions as accurate as before.

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April 09, 2025, 12:21:51 PM
 #223

anybody that is always winning in gambling should no that is your luck not by any strategy and the right way for you to be safe is by betting with only what you can afford.
Well, there's nothing wrong if you believe that your strategy has something to do on why you win. However, it's best not to be so confident as it can also disappoint a gambler big time if what he/she expected didn't happened.

We still need luck in order to win but knowledge can help since you can apply it to the game especially in skill-based. Anyway, regardless how confident you are and what games you're playing (casino games or skill-based), don't forget the basic rule to use only the money that you can live without.

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April 09, 2025, 12:25:19 PM
 #224

It is possible that you are quite good at analyzing but there is also a possibility that previously you were nothing more than lucky, you can evaluate what you analyzed in the previous bet that led you to victory, if you find that the analysis you did really had a big contribution in achieving the previous victory then you can do the same thing on the next bet, but one thing I will suggest is to make sure that you only bet using a small amount, an amount that you can afford to lose, because of course gambling is still gambling.

You are right mate, even if he is not good in making accurate prediction, he should still not forget that gambling can always bring an uncertain result especially when you don't expect the result. He should also make sure to always use his strategy to be able to always make more accurate prediction. If he is too overconfident or cultivate the attitude of pride, he might not be able to do the predictions as accurate as before.

Then I can also add, we know that there is no accurate prediction. But what is sad is that even though they know that the prediction is not accurate, they assumed that the analysis of their prediction was correct and that is the problem for them.

Although, it is not bad to have confidence but of course make sure that what we are giving confidence to is really right so that we will not be happy with what we give such things.

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Bitcoinsummoner
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April 09, 2025, 01:07:33 PM
 #225

It is possible that you are quite good at analyzing but there is also a possibility that previously you were nothing more than lucky, you can evaluate what you analyzed in the previous bet that led you to victory, if you find that the analysis you did really had a big contribution in achieving the previous victory then you can do the same thing on the next bet, but one thing I will suggest is to make sure that you only bet using a small amount, an amount that you can afford to lose, because of course gambling is still gambling.

You are right mate, even if he is not good in making accurate prediction, he should still not forget that gambling can always bring an uncertain result especially when you don't expect the result. He should also make sure to always use his strategy to be able to always make more accurate prediction. If he is too overconfident or cultivate the attitude of pride, he might not be able to do the predictions as accurate as before.

Absolutely, you're right. In gambling, uncertainty is always part of the game, and even the best strategies can sometimes fall short. Overconfidence can destroy everything, while a disciplined approach helps in making better calculations.
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April 09, 2025, 03:39:59 PM
 #226

It is possible that you are quite good at analyzing but there is also a possibility that previously you were nothing more than lucky, you can evaluate what you analyzed in the previous bet that led you to victory, if you find that the analysis you did really had a big contribution in achieving the previous victory then you can do the same thing on the next bet, but one thing I will suggest is to make sure that you only bet using a small amount, an amount that you can afford to lose, because of course gambling is still gambling.

You are right mate, even if he is not good in making accurate prediction, he should still not forget that gambling can always bring an uncertain result especially when you don't expect the result. He should also make sure to always use his strategy to be able to always make more accurate prediction. If he is too overconfident or cultivate the attitude of pride, he might not be able to do the predictions as accurate as before.

Absolutely, you're right. In gambling, uncertainty is always part of the game, and even the best strategies can sometimes fall short. Overconfidence can destroy everything, while a disciplined approach helps in making better calculations.

Yes, therefore, self-awareness must be applied so that gamblers will reduce and prevent fatal risks in front of their eyes, instead of being happy, they will receive regret and sadness.
Confidence in gambling is not wrong, but this confidence must be controlled as well as possible, usually gamblers who have high self-confidence are novice gamblers or gamblers who are already addicted.

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April 09, 2025, 03:52:58 PM
 #227

Yes, therefore, self-awareness must be applied so that gamblers will reduce and prevent fatal risks in front of their eyes, instead of being happy, they will receive regret and sadness.
Confidence in gambling is not wrong, but this confidence must be controlled as well as possible, usually gamblers who have high self-confidence are novice gamblers or gamblers who are already addicted.
In general, I would like to say that self-confidence in gambling only makes things worse. For example, the more professional a player is, the more he begins to question many things with the help of his accumulated knowledge and experience, which helps him stay afloat. Therefore, I will never be confident in gambling. But confident players bet all their money, and therefore lose to prove their case. But later they wonder why it didn't work or say phrases like "this is happening to me for the first time."

 
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April 09, 2025, 05:23:41 PM
 #228

Do not let your accurate predictions deceive you. No emotions there. Betting is totally different. But if you can be disciplined enough and go against your will and also not using more than small amount of money, why not give it a try. But expect loss while betting. If you start to bet, you can be exposed to bettors vulnerability which makes them lose. One of the vulnerabilities is frequent betting.

Yes, while betting, confidence is very bad. You can lose, but if you win, it can lead to more confidence (even overconfidence) which is a bigger trap of money loss.

Every beginner thinks that they are skilled till they star experiencing what gambling is all about. We all had that optimism when we started predicting games but at the long run we figured out that gambling isn't a hundred percent predictable. Instead of advising newbies it's better they experience it themselves so they can learn properly. Telling them otherwise feels like you are not being positive enough for them,  confidence isn't just bad it can ruin you financially as a gambler.

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April 10, 2025, 08:11:03 AM
 #229

It is possible that you are quite good at analyzing but there is also a possibility that previously you were nothing more than lucky, you can evaluate what you analyzed in the previous bet that led you to victory, if you find that the analysis you did really had a big contribution in achieving the previous victory then you can do the same thing on the next bet, but one thing I will suggest is to make sure that you only bet using a small amount, an amount that you can afford to lose, because of course gambling is still gambling.

You are right mate, even if he is not good in making accurate prediction, he should still not forget that gambling can always bring an uncertain result especially when you don't expect the result. He should also make sure to always use his strategy to be able to always make more accurate prediction. If he is too overconfident or cultivate the attitude of pride, he might not be able to do the predictions as accurate as before.

Yup that's the point, we are on the same page here which in my opinion gambling is still a risky activity regardless of how hard you try to predict a match to win.

So the conclusion is there is no exception to not implementing risk management such as limits on the amount of bets or expectations of winning, not infrequently I see gamblers who eventually lose control which makes them lose more money because they are too confident with predictions that they think are right and that's the reason my friend.

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Dr.Bitcoin_Strange
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April 10, 2025, 11:56:55 AM
 #230

So the conclusion is there is no exception to not implementing risk management such as limits on the amount of bets or expectations of winning, not infrequently I see gamblers who eventually lose control which makes them lose more money because they are too confident with predictions that they think are right and that's the reason my friend.

An experienced gambler wouldn't be too confident in all their bet because they know that all prediction is not 100% certain, it's possible that someone can make an accurate prediction but the possibility that the best team they bet on can mistakenly lose the match and cause their bet to end in lose, that's why I don't even put much attention in gambling because the source of income I have is more consistent than gambling, so there's no room for overconfot in gambling.

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April 10, 2025, 12:09:24 PM
 #231


  At least with what you have said I think is the best way because anybody that is always winning in gambling should no that is your luck not by any strategy and the right way for you to be safe is by betting with only what you can afford.

Though you may be right, but I think it depends on the strategy that you're using as a gambler. Because most gamblers can only decide to go with the strategy of betting a single game, and you know there's a difference between betting on multiple games and when you're betting in a single game. if you're this set of gamblers that always go for single game of course your chance of winning will be very high, at some point you can start having confidence in your strategy. I hope you understand what I mean.

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April 10, 2025, 12:38:07 PM
 #232

So the conclusion is there is no exception to not implementing risk management such as limits on the amount of bets or expectations of winning, not infrequently I see gamblers who eventually lose control which makes them lose more money because they are too confident with predictions that they think are right and that's the reason my friend.

An experienced gambler wouldn't be too confident in all their bet because they know that all prediction is not 100% certain, it's possible that someone can make an accurate prediction but the possibility that the best team they bet on can mistakenly lose the match and cause their bet to end in lose, that's why I don't even put much attention in gambling because the source of income I have is more consistent than gambling, so there's no room for overconfot in gambling.
This subject every gambler should understand very well, because it is a true and natural thing. We have seen many times, a team win where the team had a high chance of losing, and many times a strong team loses to a weak team. These are always unpredictable, so you should not make any decision in such a way that you will have to face difficult problems if the result is not as per your expectations, and in gambling the result is never as per your expectations. That is why you should gamble with the right thinking and the right mindset, and never be overconfident, because the result can be anything.

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April 10, 2025, 02:54:36 PM
 #233


anyway because my predictions have been correct i now feel drunk in power and i feel like i could get another prediction right for the next sporting event i am considering whether i should try and officially bet on it? am i actually good at analyzing things or have i just been lucky?


You might be like Nostradamus who can predict the future dude, Just kidding aside. How did you say you're good at analyzing things in the casino when you're gambling? Because it's hard to predict the results when you're inside the casino platform.

Because if your predictions are always like that and accurate, you'll be able to beat the house edge for sure because you know the results of every game in casino games,
no matter what category it is, right?

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April 10, 2025, 05:50:11 PM
 #234


Well I think OP should learn something, not only in gambling but in all areas of life, if you have an analysis and you have or believe that it is the right thing to do and you think that the way is to bet, then do it, take the leap of faith, the most that can happen to you is to lose and that is contemplated in the normality of betting, that is, the only thing I do tell you is that if you bet only do it with money that you are willing to lose, do not commit a lot of money that you will not be able to cover other expenses later.
Losing is a natural part of the game; we can't be alarmed by these things. If we don't accept that we lose, then we're playing the game in a very bad way, and the reality of things will hit us hard when it happens, and we won't want to accept it.

In fact, the most common cases of addiction are because gamblers don't accept that they lose , When that happens, they start suggesting other things: revenge against the casino, swindling, then a lack of moneya whole host of things that contribute to falling into a potential addiction.

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April 11, 2025, 01:42:45 AM
 #235

Yes, therefore, self-awareness must be applied so that gamblers will reduce and prevent fatal risks in front of their eyes, instead of being happy, they will receive regret and sadness.
Confidence in gambling is not wrong, but this confidence must be controlled as well as possible, usually gamblers who have high self-confidence are novice gamblers or gamblers who are already addicted.
In general, I would like to say that self-confidence in gambling only makes things worse. For example, the more professional a player is, the more he begins to question many things with the help of his accumulated knowledge and experience, which helps him stay afloat. Therefore, I will never be confident in gambling. But confident players bet all their money, and therefore lose to prove their case. But later they wonder why it didn't work or say phrases like "this is happening to me for the first time."

Yes, that's right, this self-confidence will worsen the financial condition of gamblers with strong self-confidence and cannot be controlled properly, then gamblers in each session of their game will be more daring and not think long that the results of their predictions and courage in betting may be off target. And yes, gamblers will soon realize when they often experience consecutive defeats.

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April 11, 2025, 11:12:36 AM
 #236

So the conclusion is there is no exception to not implementing risk management such as limits on the amount of bets or expectations of winning, not infrequently I see gamblers who eventually lose control which makes them lose more money because they are too confident with predictions that they think are right and that's the reason my friend.

An experienced gambler wouldn't be too confident in all their bet because they know that all prediction is not 100% certain, it's possible that someone can make an accurate prediction but the possibility that the best team they bet on can mistakenly lose the match and cause their bet to end in lose, that's why I don't even put much attention in gambling because the source of income I have is more consistent than gambling, so there's no room for overconfot in gambling.

Of course, I am also sure that an experienced gambler must have known and understood about the concept of winning and losing in gambling, they understand that no matter how hard they try to predict a match, in the end gambling is always a game of probability.
In sports betting, the best team that is statistically superior does have a greater chance of getting three full points (winning) but that does not mean it is impossible for them to lose in the end, the situation and conditions can really trigger mistakes, such as playing away or blunders are included in it.
So it can be concluded that defeat will always be part of the game and that is the reason why gambling for entertainment is the most appropriate goal.

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April 14, 2025, 01:56:29 AM
 #237


I agree with you because in gambling is either you win or lose whether you like it or not. This is the reason why one needs to limit his losses by using little amount of money that he can afford to lose to gamble, and also withdraw his win whenever he is in profit and quit the game. To avoid him gambling back with his profits because losing is inevitable.

Undoubtedly, it's true What we have to accept the most is loss. When I was starting out, I was ashamed to say I lost Afterward, you accept things as they are, and everything depends on the level of trust you have That's why sometimes some players struggle to mature certain concepts, and one of those is failure.

But one of the things you have to accept the most is knowing how to lose and sometimes knowing how to win.

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bisdak40
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April 14, 2025, 03:07:49 AM
 #238

i have been making predictions about this one sport but not really turning my predictions into bets officially meaning i have yet to actually put money on where my mouth is

anyway in this sport i have been following, i have made two claims that ended up being true i wouldn't say that it is straightforward so even i am surprised with how accurate my predictions were when my basis were honestly a lot of optimism and trust to the athletes to be motivated enough to perform well after previous horrible results

anyway because my predictions have been correct i now feel drunk in power and i feel like i could get another prediction right for the next sporting event i am considering whether i should try and officially bet on it? am i actually good at analyzing things or have i just been lucky?

I experience this once in a while, and it's called 'coincidence or luck.' No one has a crystal ball to predict the outcome of a game, not even hardcore analysts. If they can fail, how much more likely are we to miss the mark when we predict only occasionally? If you're not a gambler, I suggest you avoid betting and instead observe your predictions. You'll see that they often go the other way over time.


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April 16, 2025, 12:48:42 PM
 #239

i have been making predictions about this one sport but not really turning my predictions into bets officially meaning i have yet to actually put money on where my mouth is

anyway in this sport i have been following, i have made two claims that ended up being true i wouldn't say that it is straightforward so even i am surprised with how accurate my predictions were when my basis were honestly a lot of optimism and trust to the athletes to be motivated enough to perform well after previous horrible results

anyway because my predictions have been correct i now feel drunk in power and i feel like i could get another prediction right for the next sporting event i am considering whether i should try and officially bet on it? am i actually good at analyzing things or have i just been lucky?

I've also experience it so many times, I could get the correct prediction when I am not betting, but when my money is at stake it would be a different story.
It might be luck or you might really be good at analyzing so why not try with an amount that wouldn't hurt you, start with small bets to know the truth.

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April 16, 2025, 02:26:04 PM
 #240

So the conclusion is there is no exception to not implementing risk management such as limits on the amount of bets or expectations of winning, not infrequently I see gamblers who eventually lose control which makes them lose more money because they are too confident with predictions that they think are right and that's the reason my friend.

An experienced gambler wouldn't be too confident in all their bet because they know that all prediction is not 100% certain, it's possible that someone can make an accurate prediction but the possibility that the best team they bet on can mistakenly lose the match and cause their bet to end in lose, that's why I don't even put much attention in gambling because the source of income I have is more consistent than gambling, so there's no room for overconfot in gambling.
This subject every gambler should understand very well, because it is a true and natural thing. We have seen many times, a team win where the team had a high chance of losing, and many times a strong team loses to a weak team. These are always unpredictable, so you should not make any decision in such a way that you will have to face difficult problems if the result is not as per your expectations, and in gambling the result is never as per your expectations. That is why you should gamble with the right thinking and the right mindset, and never be overconfident, because the result can be anything.

Gambling is a game full of uncertainties. For example, a very strong team can lose unexpectedly, and a very weak team can win unexpectedly. The main reason for losing in gambling is overconfidence. The right move at the right time is the key to winning in gambling. A Gambler can't consider their loss. They forget that they will win all the time without losing a single penny.
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