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Author Topic: The deception in small odds.  (Read 866 times)
Zigabel (OP)
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March 26, 2025, 10:56:34 PM
Last edit: March 26, 2025, 11:17:51 PM by Zigabel
 #1

Just like the title, small odds can really be deceptive such that you would think it's an assurance of certainty only to see that your bet ends in a loss, I'm speaking from experience,  here's my story.

Few weeks ago I taught of employing a new strategy in a bid to be very smart and probably edge over the casino,  little did I know it was a deception as there was never any certainty with what I was upto, I decided to drop my greed and accumulate small odds using the bet accumulator, I decided to stop at a maximum of 3 odds after all my picks, so I had a total of 7 events that accumulated up to 3 odds, the crazy part is one of my picks had the home team at 1.09 odds to win a visiting team that was given 12.03 odds so I had almost no doubt that the home team was definitely going to win but to my amazement it ended  0-1 and I lost sadly so I learnt my lessons from this event.

Some small odds are just as a result of statistics which the casino did gathered about a team and they have almost no control of what the result would be for any game, their odds are just a figment of their taughts and expectations of the possible outcome of such games so it's not absolute,  they can be wrong so always have a decision on games before making a pick and not just following the odds alone so you don't suffer what I suffered.
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March 26, 2025, 11:08:04 PM
 #2

the crazy part is one of my picks had the home team at 1.09 odds to win a visiting team that was given 12.03 odds
I have seen two people that went for 1.01 odd before and he lost the bet.

so I had almost no doubt that the home team was definitely going to win but to my amazement it ended  0-1 a d I lost sadly so I learnt my lessons from this event.
Also if the match was drawn with no winner, also it is a loss bet.

One of the riskiest thing in gambling and an easy means to lose money is to use big amount of money to bet on small odds.

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Stepstowealth
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March 26, 2025, 11:13:41 PM
 #3

Just like the title, small odds can really be deceptive such that you would think it's an assurance of certainty only to see that your bet ends in a loss,
I once had a conversation with someone who was interested in gambling and he mention that instead of betting on games where the odds are huge why not accumulate a lot of games with small odds. I figured that this is how many gamblers who pick many of these games that have small odds think because the odds in this game are very little that the chances of uncertainty is very low. It has not all gone as expected for all gamblers in this category because many of them are still ended up losing their bets.

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March 26, 2025, 11:19:15 PM
 #4

Just like the title, small odds can really be deceptive such that you would think it's an assurance of certainty only to see that your bet ends in a loss, I'm speaking from experience,  here's my story.
The thing is, they aren't. You need to realize that odds don't guarantee the outcome of a match, it is just an indication of who is most likely to win based on both of the athlete/team's history.

the crazy part is one of my picks had the home team at 1.09 odds to win a visiting team that was given 12.03 odds so I had almost no doubt that the home team was definitely going to win but to my amazement it ended  0-1 a d I lost sadly so I learnt my lessons from this event.
Yeah, upsets happen. There have been a lot of instances where a team or an athlete is the crowd favorite and the expected winner, but ends up losing. Anyway, in the end, gamblers need to keep in mind that despite the odds being low, there is still a chance of it losing

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March 26, 2025, 11:33:17 PM
 #5

Just like the title, small odds can really be deceptive such that you would think it's an assurance of certainty only to see that your bet ends in a loss,
I once had a conversation with someone who was interested in gambling and he mention that instead of betting on games where the odds are huge why not accumulate a lot of games with small odds. I figured that this is how many gamblers who pick many of these games that have small odds think because the odds in this game are very little that the chances of uncertainty is very low. It has not all gone as expected for all gamblers in this category because many of them are still ended up losing their bets.
The mate that suggested small odds accumulation will be surprised when he discovers that not just one but multiple of those small odds games will lose and be the reason for his ticket to get ruined along the line, gambling is far more than that, and at some point only luck can give you winning in gambling since aside from Luck, there is no way to win a bet since one can not predict the outcome of a match it make it impossible to be able to win if luck in not in the side of the gambler.

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March 26, 2025, 11:44:10 PM
 #6

That's why small odds like that aren't worth it; you're risking your money for tiny returns. I've come to the conclusion that it's best to avoid such matches or adopt different techniques (over-under, handicap betting). I remember this one match, which had similar odds to the one you mentioned; it was Panathinaikos vs. Lamia, in which the latter had lost every single match the past six to seven weeks and was in the last place in the Greek Super League. Guess who won.

Fortunately, I didn't take part in that specific match, but I've lost similar ones myself as well. Lesson learned: I've been going for at least 1.40 or 1.50 odds, and that's still considered relatively low.

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March 26, 2025, 11:59:27 PM
 #7

Some small odds are just as a result of statistics which the casino did gathered about a team and they have almost no control of what the result would be for any game, their odds are just a figment of their taughts and expectations of the possible outcome of such games so it's not absolute,  they can be wrong so always have a decision on games before making a pick and not just following the odds alone so you don't suffer what I suffered.

Fact!

I completely agree with you that small odds are not a guarantee of victory but rather a reflection of the statistics and the casino's expectations about the outcome of a game. And, as you said, these expectations can be wrong.

It is important to remember that football, or any other sport, is an unpredictable game and that several factors can influence the outcome of a game, from the physical and mental shape of the players to the weather conditions and the refereeing. And, even with all the statistics and analyses, you will not always be able to predict with certainty and get the outcome of a game right... we have had several examples of even very favorable odds that ended up turning into defeats.

In any case, despite your disappointment, you can always get something good out of it... I am sure that here you learned a valuable lesson that you should not only follow the odds when placing a bet but also have a critical eye and analyze all the factors that can influence the outcome of a game.

Good luck with your next bets!

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March 27, 2025, 02:14:31 AM
 #8

The problem with small odds is that people feel secure about betting on them and they used to bet big, but in gambling, nothing is secure and you can lose on any bet. So, is better to place small bets on big odds than placing big bets in small ones. And i think all the gamblers have to learn our lessons by losing money, most of us have lost with low odds and learned how bad it is to play that game.

And that's why i used to chase crazy multipliers, the last month i hit a x10,000 with a winning chance of 0.0001% so, even if it looks impossible in gambling everything is possible.
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March 27, 2025, 02:23:36 AM
 #9

Betting with small odds is one of the most losing strategies, in my opinion. In case of winning, your income will be tiny, it will not be worth the risk you took when placing your bet. At the same time, your losses happen much more often than statistics and the odds based on them imply. A bookmaker may think that the favorite team should win with a probability of 99%. But in practice, this probability is most likely equal to about 60-70%. Therefore, it is not surprising that a person who bets on a favorite with small odds will lose. But even if he wins, he still loses, because his winnings are insignificant.

 
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March 27, 2025, 02:51:03 AM
 #10

Some small odds are just as a result of statistics which the casino did gathered about a team and they have almost no control of what the result would be for any game, their odds are just a figment of their taughts and expectations of the possible outcome of such games so it's not absolute,  they can be wrong so always have a decision on games before making a pick and not just following the odds alone so you don't suffer what I suffered.
Odds are just pointers that there is a high or less possibility that the game will have certain outcomes. There is no guarantee that it will turn out the way it was speculated. It is expected that gamblers should do their own research and not totally depend on odds because they are not certain.

It is also good to know that small odds don't mean that the game will play because the outcomes of sports are unpredictable. Who would have thought that Saudi Arabia would beat the world champions Argentina in the last World Cup. Another surprising result in Qatar was Cameroon beating Brazil. I am sure that both Brazil and Argentina had small odds in these games.     

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March 27, 2025, 02:52:41 AM
 #11

Just like the title, small odds can really be deceptive such that you would think it's an assurance of certainty only to see that your bet ends in a loss, I'm speaking from experience,  here's my story.
Surely that is true, small odd doesn't guarantees win. Small odd can be deceptive in the sense that you feel that using them will make you win but they are not what they appear to be. If you have played that single 12 odd with $10 or $100 you would have won $120 or $1200 . I have even seen a situation where a 20 odd game play against 1.10 so this odd are just statistics made by the casino or bookmakers but that doesn't mean they are %100 accurate. So it's important a gambler do his calculation and analysis and sum it up to a more reasonable result against the bookmakers who knows you could win.

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March 27, 2025, 03:55:39 AM
 #12

Betting on small odds is more dangerous than on big odds, because bettors will place big stakes so that their profits are also large and 10x successful on small odds does not mean you profit because it only takes 1x loss to take all the profit and maybe even capital.
I often pass odds below 1.25 even though it's the home team because the chances of a draw and loss still exist.
However, if you like small odds, you must be good at calculating because it can drain your emotions and capital if you lose.

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March 27, 2025, 04:25:26 AM
 #13

the crazy part is one of my picks had the home team at 1.09 odds to win a visiting team that was given 12.03 odds
I have seen two people that went for 1.01 odd before and he lost the bet.

This one is a classic example: Gambler Loses 1.4 million USD in a bet with lower than 1.01 odds!.

Some small odds are just as a result of statistics which the casino did gathered about a team and they have almost no control of what the result would be for any game, their odds are just a figment of their taughts and expectations of the possible outcome of such games so it's not absolute,  they can be wrong so always have a decision on games before making a pick and not just following the odds alone so you don't suffer what I suffered.

Of course, it's the result of their data as they crunch it to get the odds. So they don't have control of the outcome and they just followed what they got. So as gamblers, if we see this kind of odds, it's better to stay away from it and not bet.

On the contrary, if you are that kind of gamblers who loves the underdog, then seeing like 12:03 for the visiting them? Then you can just throw some money on it and enjoy and then maybe the underdog will win.

 
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March 27, 2025, 04:43:41 AM
 #14

Just like the title, small odds can really be deceptive such that you would think it's an assurance of certainty only to see that your bet ends in a loss, I'm speaking from experience,  here's my story.

Few weeks ago I taught of employing a new strategy in a bid to be very smart and probably edge over the casino,  little did I know it was a deception as there was never any certainty with what I was upto, I decided to drop my greed and accumulate small odds using the bet accumulator, I decided to stop at a maximum of 3 odds after all my picks, so I had a total of 7 events that accumulated up to 3 odds, the crazy part is one of my picks had the home team at 1.09 odds to win a visiting team that was given 12.03 odds so I had almost no doubt that the home team was definitely going to win but to my amazement it ended  0-1 and I lost sadly so I learnt my lessons from this event.

Some small odds are just as a result of statistics which the casino did gathered about a team and they have almost no control of what the result would be for any game, their odds are just a figment of their taughts and expectations of the possible outcome of such games so it's not absolute,  they can be wrong so always have a decision on games before making a pick and not just following the odds alone so you don't suffer what I suffered.


 

What "edge" do plebs actually have unless we have actual information that the teams behind those bets with small odds would actually give you a 100% win probability.

Because, even if you bet on them, not as a multi, but one by one, the casino/sports-betting service charge their users a fee. That fee alone has already lessened your "edge" if you had one, OR decreased your for long term profit possibilities.

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March 27, 2025, 04:56:17 AM
 #15

Just like the title, small odds can really be deceptive such that you would think it's an assurance of certainty only to see that your bet ends in a loss,
I once had a conversation with someone who was interested in gambling and he mention that instead of betting on games where the odds are huge why not accumulate a lot of games with small odds. I figured that this is how many gamblers who pick many of these games that have small odds think because the odds in this game are very little that the chances of uncertainty is very low. It has not all gone as expected for all gamblers in this category because many of them are still ended up losing their bets.
That is the mistake most gamblers normally do, how can someone have such mentality of accumulating a lot of games with small odds, noing fully well that even with small odds doesn't guarantee you winnings. However, I think it'll be quite good for you to bet on 1 or 2 big odds, because in gambling it will better that a big odd cut your bet than a smaller odd, so for me I think is not quite good for a gambler to have thought in gambling.

 
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March 27, 2025, 05:46:01 AM
 #16

It is important to always consider the risk/reward scenario.  I know a lot of people can't resist a sure thing, even if they're only going to get a few percent out of the deal.  You should always ask yourself if it is worth it though.  Under any circumstances, is it worth it to risk your entire stack on a chance for a 1% gain?  I don't think so.  Anything can happen when it comes to sporting events, so you want to make sure if you're placing a bet the payoff will be worth the risk.  If you don't, it's only a matter of time before you have a really bad day.

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March 27, 2025, 05:56:30 AM
 #17

the crazy part is one of my picks had the home team at 1.09 odds to win a visiting team that was given 12.03 odds
I have seen two people that went for 1.01 odd before and he lost the bet.

This one is a classic example: Gambler Loses 1.4 million USD in a bet with lower than 1.01 odds!.

I don't bet on that. You can put that in a savings account or a deposit and be sure to earn the same or more money without losing the principal. The one who bet that amount with those odds and lost must have looked like an asshole.

The reflection that in my opinion the OP would have to make is if using strategies, such as this one he has tried or others, is profitable for him. If not, he should forget about trying to make money with these bets, he should play from time to time and write off the money when he bets it. If he wins in that session, so much the better. But you have to be aware that very few people are able to make a profit on a consistent basis.

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March 27, 2025, 06:10:50 AM
 #18

the crazy part is one of my picks had the home team at 1.09 odds to win a visiting team that was given 12.03 odds
I have seen two people that went for 1.01 odd before and he lost the bet.

This one is a classic example: Gambler Loses 1.4 million USD in a bet with lower than 1.01 odds!.

I don't bet on that. You can put that in a savings account or a deposit and be sure to earn the same or more money without losing the principal. The one who bet that amount with those odds and lost must have looked like an asshole.

The reflection that in my opinion the OP would have to make is if using strategies, such as this one he has tried or others, is profitable for him. If not, he should forget about trying to make money with these bets, he should play from time to time and write off the money when he bets it. If he wins in that session, so much the better. But you have to be aware that very few people are able to make a profit on a consistent basis.

Irrespective of the fact that I don't bet on odds like that either, the example you gave is the best someone gets to read. There is no point in doing that. Assuming that the goal was to make $14k if the bet wins, parking it in a savings account is 1.4 million times smarter and safer.

What I am not too familiar with is whether there is any incentive to make those bets with regards to wagering requirements for perhaps VIP status or bonuses. The lower the odds, the lower the points someone can earn from a bet, but does this principal amount still give a lot of wagering points in the average casino?

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March 27, 2025, 06:17:17 AM
 #19

Just like the title, small odds can really be deceptive such that you would think it's an assurance of certainty only to see that your bet ends in a loss, I'm speaking from experience,  here's my story.

Few weeks ago I taught of employing a new strategy in a bid to be very smart and probably edge over the casino,  little did I know it was a deception as there was never any certainty with what I was upto, I decided to drop my greed and accumulate small odds using the bet accumulator, I decided to stop at a maximum of 3 odds after all my picks, so I had a total of 7 events that accumulated up to 3 odds, the crazy part is one of my picks had the home team at 1.09 odds to win a visiting team that was given 12.03 odds so I had almost no doubt that the home team was definitely going to win but to my amazement it ended  0-1 and I lost sadly so I learnt my lessons from this event.

Some small odds are just as a result of statistics which the casino did gathered about a team and they have almost no control of what the result would be for any game, their odds are just a figment of their taughts and expectations of the possible outcome of such games so it's not absolute,  they can be wrong so always have a decision on games before making a pick and not just following the odds alone so you don't suffer what I suffered.

Just like you, I've lost twice in a similar situation. It really surprised me at the time, until I thought about it from a different perspective. Just such matches bring very good winnings to those who bet on the underdog, so they are very likely to be match-fixing. That's when my surprise dissipated. Especially if you see how the favorites play like sleepy flies, notice uncharacteristic oddities in the game, then the conclusion is unequivocal. Unfortunately, all this can only be understood after the match.

But you can be careful not to bet at all on such low odds. Moreover, this will not bring a big win, and making a big bet is irrational. But you can place small bets on the underdog.


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Outhue
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March 27, 2025, 06:25:22 AM
 #20

You follow the odds you get burnt,  Grin people tend to do this a lot, thinking a smaller odd means that the game will work out, hell no! Smaller odds are still based on prediction, it means that the probability of winning is higher than games with higher odds but still the risk is very present, this doesn't mean that you can't lose money.

I won't accept this as a strategy, it is just a plus but not guaranteed, anything can still happen, it is better to plan yourself for any possibility, always think about what will happen if you lose the money, even if the odd is 0.5 you can still lose the game, don't count on it like your life depends on it.

Always risk what you can afford to lose, it doesn't matter if the odds are low or higher, protect yourself by risking only what you can afford to lose, nothing is more important than this.

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