Will China envade Taiwan?

[Japinat]

I just saw in the news today that tensions between Taiwan and China are rising, and it could even lead to war. I’m worried because the report said Taiwan is really close to my country (the Philippines), and we have a lot of OFWs (Overseas Filipino Workers) there. If war breaks out, it’s almost impossible for the Philippines not to get involved as we’d have to evacuate and protect our OFWs affected by the conflict. What do you think will happen?

Will China actually attack Taiwan? And if they do, how would this impact Taiwan’s economy and neighboring countries caught in the fallout?


https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/apr/01/china-launches-surprise-military-drills-around-taiwan
https://edition.cnn.com/2025/03/31/china/china-taiwan-military-drills-hnk-intl/index.html
https://www.channelnewsasia.com/asia/military-chief-says-philippines-inevitably-involved-if-taiwan-invaded-5037356

[avikz]

It's highly unlikely to happen! US has open support for Taiwan and if China invades Taiwan, it will become the 3rd world war in literal sense. Chinese government will not risk full scale war at this point of time.

However the Chinese government will keep the threat alive. They will send fighter jet near Taiwan's border or they will send war frigets near Taiwan etc. this way they will keep the threat alive. But a full scale war is highly unlikely to happen.

[Reynaldo]

Actually, it's more possible than many think. With America distracted by Trump's imperialism narrative pushing for Greenland acquisition, renaming the Gulf of Mexico to "Gulf of America," and suggesting Canada should become the 51st state, China might see an opportunity.
China could potentially take Taiwan rapidly - not literally "in seconds," but with a swift, overwhelming force deployment that achieves control before a substantial US response. Their strategy would likely involve:

Massive cyber attacks to disable Taiwanese communications/defense systems
Blockading the island with their navy to prevent US reinforcements
Establishing air superiority with their J-20 stealth fighters
Deploying amphibious forces from multiple directions

The key would be creating a fait accompli that makes US military intervention seem futile or too costly.

As a reference look at this video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VNZ0so0LCoM&t=628s

[DeathAngel]

I don’t think so no. It’s been talked about for many years but never happened. Of course that isn’t to say it will never happen but I think China would face a lot of problems from G7 nations so I believe it’s very unlikely to happen any time soon.

[rodskee]

I just saw in the news today that tensions between Taiwan and China are rising, and it could even lead to war. I’m worried because the report said Taiwan is really close to my country (the Philippines), and we have a lot of OFWs (Overseas Filipino Workers) there. If war breaks out, it’s almost impossible for the Philippines not to get involved as we’d have to evacuate and protect our OFWs affected by the conflict. What do you think will happen?

yeah we’ll need to get your workers back but i doubt that the entire country will try to also get involved unless they just decide to for some reason but with what the current state of the country they should second think about getting involved

Will China actually attack Taiwan? And if they do, how would this impact Taiwan’s economy and neighboring countries caught in the fallout?

i don’t think they will or at least for now a war will harm both countries and for sure that a lot of other countries will want to get involved and take sides and take this opportunity to get back at their enemies

[Hispo]

I just saw in the news today that tensions between Taiwan and China are rising, and it could even lead to war. I’m worried because the report said Taiwan is really close to my country (the Philippines), and we have a lot of OFWs (Overseas Filipino Workers) there. If war breaks out, it’s almost impossible for the Philippines not to get involved as we’d have to evacuate and protect our OFWs affected by the conflict. What do you think will happen?

Will China actually attack Taiwan? And if they do, how would this impact Taiwan’s economy and neighboring countries caught in the fallout?


https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/apr/01/china-launches-surprise-military-drills-around-taiwan
https://edition.cnn.com/2025/03/31/china/china-taiwan-military-drills-hnk-intl/index.html
https://www.channelnewsasia.com/asia/military-chief-says-philippines-inevitably-involved-if-taiwan-invaded-5037356

It is very unlikely to happen in my opinion. Most of the Chinese economy depends on the consumption from the west of their goods and services, basically the country continues to function thanks to the high demand of manufacture from there. If China decided to take over Taiwan by force then a boycott and embargo would likely happen and that could literally tank the economy of the country, since they will lose their western clients and associates.

China just wants to keep the sensation of threat alive, so the people of Taiwan and the United States do not get too comfortable with the idea of an enduring peace or a period of time in which there are no surprise military drills and Chinese vessels getting too close to Taiwan.
China needs the USA to keep their economy afloat, and eventually the USA could replace Chinese labor with Indian labor if they needed to.

[mu_enrico]

It's possible since we are standing on a thin string of delicate balance between nations' power. Once it tips to a certain scale, everything will collapse into WWIII. It only takes one madman, whether it's China's president, the US's, or Russia's, to end this peaceful era. The "peace through strength" thing is actually correct. It's a love-and-hate relationship with the US. So, as long as the US can keep China in check, the invasion is unlikely to happen.

[passwordnow]

Will China actually attack Taiwan?

It's been rumored long time ago, I don't think that China is an idiotic country that will just go and attack and will put the lives of their native people in there. They consider Taiwan as one of theirs so, they won't just go there and ruin through war. What I am thinking is that there's a likelihood they'll put an economic war to anyone who's going to meddle with their relationship and that's with the USA and other allies that it has got.

And if they do, how would this impact Taiwan’s economy and neighboring countries caught in the fallout?

I don't think they'll be the one to start it first. If there will be the one who's going to start it, it's not with China nor Taiwan. But it is possible that it will be US that will trigger the alarm in provoking China to do such actions. And about its effect, as usual, most products that are coming from China and Taiwan will be more expensive, semi conductors and electronics.

[Tipstar]

There are two options either Taiwan join China peacefully or Taiwan is annexed by China by force.
With the first one looking more unlikely every day, the option of China attacking Taiwan is more likely. It's about when rather then would.
China has been practicing and planning for a blockade till Taiwan surrenders and a military confrontation if Taiwan or other nation attacks.
A US intel was suggesting a 2027 date but with Trump in power, China would just wait. They would make sure that they do it with 100% certainty of success and causing less damage. So it would be around 2031.

[aioc]

If war breaks out, it’s almost impossible for the Philippines not to get involved as we’d have to evacuate and protect our OFWs affected by the conflict. What do you think will happen?

The Philippines will likely get involved there are an estimated 130k to 150k OFW in Taiwan and we will have to make sure that each and every one of them will be evacuated, because of proximity, the Philippines will be dragged into this war.
This will have an economic impact on the Philippine economy also; the OFW is one of the backbone of the Philippine economy.

Will China actually attack Taiwan? And if they do, how would this impact Taiwan’s economy and neighboring countries caught in the fallout?

There's no winner in this war, as China will also suffer, as we all know the US will intervene and all the other countries will impose economic sanctions against China, and this will have an impact on China's economy. There is also a possibility that countries from the southeast will band together to impose sanctions and help Taiwan fight China; it will be very messy if this happens.

[BADecker]

It's possible since we are standing on a thin string of delicate balance between nations' power. Once it tips to a certain scale, everything will collapse into WWIII. It only takes one madman, whether it's China's president, the US's, or Russia's, to end this peaceful era. The "peace through strength" thing is actually correct. It's a love-and-hate relationship with the US. So, as long as the US can keep China in check, the invasion is unlikely to happen.

The madman doesn't have to be a government leader. If a small group of soldiers in a nuke control room 'happen' to get their hands on the codes, they just might launch the nukes without authorization.

[robelneo]

Will China actually attack Taiwan? And if they do, how would this impact Taiwan’s economy and neighboring countries caught in the fallout?

This has been a threat for many years, and by the way China is acting against Taiwan, they are provoking Taiwan to engage, just like the way they are bullying the Philippines, and if Taiwan takes the bait, this is going to be very ugly for the whole region.
China does not want to be the first to attack; they just want a reason to attack and make it appear as if they are retaliating.
This is going to be ugly for the economies of all those who will be involved. I still hope the Philippine government will exercise caution in giving statements, and they should come from ambassadors and not generals of the armed forces.
 

[Kelward]

I don’t think so no. It’s been talked about for many years but never happened. Of course that isn’t to say it will never happen but I think China would face a lot of problems from G7 nations so I believe it’s very unlikely to happen any time soon.

For as long as I can remember, China, has always been flexing it's muscles against Taiwan, but it never gets beyond that. Hopefully they wouldn't invade because if they do Taiwan, wouldn't be a walk in the park for them. I'm sure that they're learning a thing or two from the Russian invasion of Ukraine, they thought that Ukraine, was a walk over but they know better today. Taiwan, has a powerful force behind tham and that is America, they're a strong ally that wouldn't stand by and watch Taiwan, being invaded by China. We don't know what will happen in the future but as it is now, I believe that China, will show off their weapons of war and retreat.

[aioc]

I don’t think so no. It’s been talked about for many years but never happened. Of course that isn’t to say it will never happen but I think China would face a lot of problems from G7 nations so I believe it’s very unlikely to happen any time soon.

For as long as I can remember, China, has always been flexing it's muscles against Taiwan, but it never gets beyond that. Hopefully they wouldn't invade because if they do Taiwan, wouldn't be a walk in the park for them.

They are preparing for invasion, and it could happen anytime from now to 2027, when things are already set up.
This just gets in:

Vast new Chinese barges spotted off the country's south coast could be used to land heavy equipment and thousands of personnel in a possible invasion of Taiwan, defence experts say.
China... would not waste resources on such a specialized, dedicated system if it were not bore-sighted on taking Taiwan by threat, or use, of force."

China floats battle barges in Taiwan invasion plans
China, it seems, is all set to invade Taiwan, regardless of what the world thinks of their action. The Philippines has one of the largest OFW in Taiwan, so their concern should focus on helping these OFW to get out and not on interfering with the war unless China shows aggression against the Philippines.
The region is on heightened alert right now; the UN should interfere to prevent an all-out war from escalating.

[caroasi]

If the Ukraine was was an indicator it showed that while Taiwan can be entirely destroyed, it cannot be invaded because of the effectiveness in anti-ship missiles. Ships are frankly just too vulnerable to missiles. China knows this weakness of shipping. Therefore, Taiwan will not be invaded.

Taiwan should be spending a large fraction of their GDP in building underground infrastructure. All their power production should be done at least 100 meters underground if not deeper. Their oil reserves should also be deep underground as well even though as far as I'm aware nobody does that. Well, they should.

[boyptc]

China has been implementing the One China Policy but Taiwan doesn't seem to recognize that anymore. I've seen people who lives there uploading videos that some tanks are here and there, moving for some defense exercise.

It seems that it's all ployed that Taiwan isn't going to give up their sovereignty whatever happened.

But my prediction is that despite their defense, soon, they'll have to stick to China or many casualties are going to be affected.

[Bushdark]

I just saw in the news today that tensions between Taiwan and China are rising, and it could even lead to war. I’m worried because the report said Taiwan is really close to my country (the Philippines), and we have a lot of OFWs (Overseas Filipino Workers) there. If war breaks out, it’s almost impossible for the Philippines not to get involved as we’d have to evacuate and protect our OFWs affected by the conflict. What do you think will happen?

Will China actually attack Taiwan? And if they do, how would this impact Taiwan’s economy and neighboring countries caught in the fallout?


https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/apr/01/china-launches-surprise-military-drills-around-taiwan
https://edition.cnn.com/2025/03/31/china/china-taiwan-military-drills-hnk-intl/index.html
https://www.channelnewsasia.com/asia/military-chief-says-philippines-inevitably-involved-if-taiwan-invaded-5037356

Using the word invade is just funny. It's just like you are saying China wants to invade part of Philippines islands that are close to China.
We all know that Taiwan is part of China just like Honkong that is also part of China. Taiwan belongs to China and there is nothing anyone can do about it. If the US likes they should send enough weapons to Taiwan to protect themselves from their neighbors, the world knows the truth and Taiwan should cooperate with China so there wouldn't be any war in the future. The US is benefiting huge from Taiwan alot that's why they are sending ammunitions so they can make more money from weapon sales.

[coin-investor]

Will China actually attack Taiwan? And if they do, how would this impact Taiwan’s economy and neighboring countries caught in the fallout?

With all the action of China against Taiwan, I'm sure by now every country in these regions has a contingency plan. The Philippines has one of the largest OFW in Taiwan and they need to evacuate all of them, I read that they have an emergency plan if it happens.
Taiwan is ready for this war to happen. I have seen their bomb shelters in one video and every citizen in Taiwan is fully aware of the situation and they are educated on what to do in case China attacks them.
So if the Taiwanese know that the war is coming, countries on this region should also be ready for the attack.

[Swordsoffreedom]

I don’t think so no. It’s been talked about for many years but never happened. Of course that isn’t to say it will never happen but I think China would face a lot of problems from G7 nations so I believe it’s very unlikely to happen any time soon.

For as long as I can remember, China, has always been flexing it's muscles against Taiwan, but it never gets beyond that. Hopefully they wouldn't invade because if they do Taiwan, wouldn't be a walk in the park for them. I'm sure that they're learning a thing or two from the Russian invasion of Ukraine, they thought that Ukraine, was a walk over but they know better today. Taiwan, has a powerful force behind tham and that is America, they're a strong ally that wouldn't stand by and watch Taiwan, being invaded by China. We don't know what will happen in the future but as it is now, I believe that China, will show off their weapons of war and retreat.

Ukraine may have been able to resist Russia until now thanks to timely  support from Europe, but Taiwan has not. Their ally is the United States but they are too far away, I don't think the United States can support them in time if China is determined and goes all out to take back Taiwan.
The reason China has not wanted a conflict to take back Taiwan so far is because economy. Their main goal is to try to catch up with the United States and expand their economic influence on the world economy. If they attack Taiwan, that plan could be delayed for decades and China certainly doesn't want that to happen.

But it must also be acknowledged that the United States will be able to defend Taiwan resolutely for the benefit of both sides. Unlike Ukraine,  the United States is heavily dependent on Taiwan in its semiconductor chip race with China and that is why they are determined to protect  Taiwan at all costs.

[coin-investor]

But it must also be acknowledged that the United States will be able to defend Taiwan resolutely for the benefit of both sides. Unlike Ukraine,  the United States is heavily dependent on Taiwan in its semiconductor chip race with China and that is why they are determined to protect  Taiwan at all costs.

China is fully aware of this and by threatening to invade, they want to see the United States reaction. If they say that they do not care about the invasion, they will attack right away.
Taiwan is also not afraid to retaliate because they know they have the United States and their neighboring countries to back them up. Thanks to China's interference in the West Philippine Sea, the world sees them as a villain in that region.
China will continue to build up their military presence in the southeast regions and in Taiwan seas; China wants the opposing country to attack first, so they can retaliate with full force, as their fleets and ships are all in place for attack