Trump tariffs can strengthen all country's economy while weakening the colony's!

[iv4n]

And then there's my country, as always, we are among the last on the good lists and among the first on the bad ones. And no, it's not a joke...

I didn't know anything about these tariffs, I'm not really interested in the topic... it's not like we can do anything about it, it's a matter for the states and competent and much more incompetent politicians. In any case, now I understand why Milwaukee tools are so expensive here!

[takuma sato]

The tariffs are wrongly calculated, they are imposing tariffs on trade deficits which is absurd. You cannot claim that there is a 1:1 relation and so then get a tariff to every country that is not trading in a symmetrical way with you. These asymmetries are organic and occur due natural supply and demand, so you are screwing up free market economics by adding these tariffs. To put it on a simply example, I have a trade deficit with mechanics because I don't even own a car, but that doesn't mean I should put a tariff on all mechanics. Well just extrapolate this to anything else at a macro scale. These trade deficits have nothing to do with the concept of a tariff. The actual tariffs against the US that are actually in place are much lower. So this is nonsense and it's the wrong math at work and it can either be done in purpose by the Trump administration to force countries into negotiations of various kind, or they just have no idea what they are doing. In any case, if you look at the total debt, and at the amount of possible revenue extracted from these tariffs, the revenue they will get is basically tiny and doesn't change much things, so in respect to total debt, is not much, so this would make sense as a way to have things being manufactured in your own country as a geopolitical move, but does not do anything relevant to reduce debt.

[l99l]

Trump’s tariffs on countries like China are escalating global trade wars, which is something that Bitcoin investors don’t really like. In the long run, inflationary policies and the depreciation of the dollar could strengthen Bitcoin’s position.
The new regime is no longer fighting, it is only fueling trade wars, which is giving the US a lot of new enemies.
The US has a huge trade deficit and billions of dollars in debt. Donald Trump said that the US government would pay off all its debts.

[She shining]

And what comes to head is what's the DOGE division doing. I thought their job is to cut the debt not making US isolated in the market.
Except they are just figure heads or this is their plan.

[r_victory]

This will be a golden opportunity for countries that are not reacting negatively to this issue. Many are seeing this as a form of retaliation, for what reason, I do not know. My own country is already considering taxing “back”. We will soon have a “tax war” (it seems we are already in one). Maintaining balance is vital for the world economy, China, for example, produces most of the products used worldwide, Russia in relation to Europe, these are very delicate issues.

In most cases, the biggest losers will be small business owners and local businesses.

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/03/15/trumps-canadian-tariffs-are-having-a-chilling-effect-on-vermonts-small-business-owners.html

[takuma sato]

Trump’s tariffs on countries like China are escalating global trade wars, which is something that Bitcoin investors don’t really like. In the long run, inflationary policies and the depreciation of the dollar could strengthen Bitcoin’s position.
The new regime is no longer fighting, it is only fueling trade wars, which is giving the US a lot of new enemies.
The US has a huge trade deficit and billions of dollars in debt. Donald Trump said that the US government would pay off all its debts.

You need more things than a lowering DXY to make a case for a bullish Bitcoin. So far, Bitcoin trades as as leveraged NASDAQ, around 3x volatility, so for now, I don't see DXY going lower is enough, since if the macro goes into a recession, that would cause a crash on the price, again this is assuming the price does not decouple from the stock market. It may eventually, and then everyone that sells trying to buy back lower will miss the boat.

Then we have the fact that if there is a recession, the damage caused by the recession may be bigger than whatever you get from refinancing debt 1 or 2% lower, so that is yet another "4d chess" Trump move that doesn't make much sense to me.

[landheer]

This will be a golden opportunity for countries that are not reacting negatively to this issue. Many are seeing this as a form of retaliation, for what reason, I do not know. My own country is already considering taxing “back”. We will soon have a “tax war” (it seems we are already in one). Maintaining balance is vital for the world economy, China, for example, produces most of the products used worldwide, Russia in relation to Europe, these are very delicate issues.

In most cases, the biggest losers will be small business owners and local businesses.

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/03/15/trumps-canadian-tariffs-are-having-a-chilling-effect-on-vermonts-small-business-owners.html

of course it is very influential not only business owners and small business owners, with the trade policy disrupting the flow of existing investment, and disrupted trade makes something difficult, but it was a decision and has happened by worsening consumer sentiment and existing businesses, by imposing a tax back it becomes an option for the country but the effect caused by rising prices for consumers and the market becomes unstable in world economic growth.

[Wind_FURY]

But the problem is, and Trump knows it, is that the U.S. is the biggest importer/consumer of those manufactured goods coming from those countries with the highest tariffs. What those tariffs might do is lower the demand for those products because they would be expensive for U.S. consumers. That would mean lower economic activity for exporters because their production depends on those consumers.

No nation-state/country/government will win in this "war".

That's a war alright.

Your post reminded me of another interesting side effect of these crazy moves as I was checking some numbers, and that is the trade deficit of US which most probably will grow even more because all those countries are starting to reciprocate in a similar fashion. US already has a negative trade balance will all those countries in the list and that can grow even bigger if they start importing less from the US...

But because the U.S. is the world's BIGGEST consumer, those export-driven countries like China, Vietnam, and Mexico will stagnate.

Although, many people, from their own biases and the viewpoints of their own countries, see Trump's Tariff Chaos = Bad, but from the MAGA Team's own viewpoint, it's the first phase of bringing manufacturing and industry back in the United States. I will start a topic when I do my own DYOR.

[Renampun]

Any country that recognizes this golden opportunity and makes an effect, can easily take the market out of the hands of US. When they do, it cannot be taken back easily even if Trump removes those tariffs in the future. The damage will be done

But the problem is, and Trump knows it, is that the U.S. is the biggest importer/consumer of those manufactured goods coming from those countries with the highest tariffs. What those tariffs might do is lower the demand for those products because they would be expensive for U.S. consumers. That would mean lower economic activity for exporters because their production depends on those consumers.

No nation-state/country/government will win in this "war".

I agree with you, in this trade war we will only see a fight where there is no winner or loser, we will only see more and more losses on both sides, just imagine if the US is not ready with the supply of goods that have made them dependent, then the price of these goods will increase drastically because they are rare and the effects will be long-term such as decreasing demand, new adaptations to a product and also layoffs because the economy is not turning as it should.

But I'm sure Trump will study further the policies he is making now because if they are not beneficial for the USA, then the policy of raising tariffs is completely useless, it will only create wounds that will slowly but surely get bigger.

[Accardo]

Trump wants more companies to build their plants in the US, where they'll have no tariffs. It's his strategy of boosting the economy of the country. The moment he brought the idea of this tariffs companies started investing in the US, TSMC the biggest chip company in the world that once had their plant in Taiwan has started building in the US, Apple had their plants in China, they've relocated to the US, due to the Tarrif.

He's targeting big companies, not agricultural firms as you mentioned, between the US also have farmers and the government is investing on them. Nobody would want to shoot his nation on the leg. Trump is no dull president. Always think of the bigger picture, your words are becoming sentimental. Where are you from?

[pooya87]

In justification of Donald Trump's actions, it can be noted that now the US GDP is only 15 percent of the world GDP, whereas previously the US GDP was 50 percent of the world GDP. From this we can conclude that globalization has not benefited the United States. Donald Trump made exactly this conclusion.

Globalization has helped US grow by a lot. In fact I'd say it is the main reason why US became the only super power for a little more than 2 decades. The problem is that globalization helped others as well and that is why they no longer like it. They thought globalization would help them and them alone. But thanks to globalization countries like China have grown as well, even more than US which is why they no longer like it.

Trump’s tariffs on countries like China are escalating global trade wars, which is something that Bitcoin investors don’t really like. In the long run, inflationary policies and the depreciation of the dollar could strengthen Bitcoin’s position.

It would help bitcoin but the problem is that all these tariff policies and global economic war is going to also cause recession which has a big negative effect on bitcoin since people will either not buy bitcoin anymore or sell what they already have.
So bitcoin price is going to be decided after a battle between these two forces: inflation versus recession.

but from the MAGA Team's own viewpoint, it's the first phase of bringing manufacturing and industry back in the United States. I will start a topic when I do my own DYOR.

Looking forward to your analysis.
I have a counter argument to this section though, it is based on a real example and by including people's purchasing power that nobody thinks about when they say all these actions are going to improve domestic production situation.
Should I post it or wait?

[hopenotlate]

The tariffs are wrongly calculated, they are imposing tariffs on trade deficits which is absurd. You cannot claim that there is a 1:1 relation and so then get a tariff to every country that is not trading in a symmetrical way with you. These asymmetries are organic and occur due natural supply and demand, so you are screwing up free market economics by adding these tariffs.
-snip-

Completely agree but I would go even a bit further.
I wouldn't say "wrongly calculated" but rather that the left column displaying tariffs other countries apply to U.S. it a big lie , something totally invented : those numbers came out from a middle school math devoid of any economic basis.
There is no reciprocity and no courtesy in these measures, just a big straight lie. This is the first aspect.
Taking the trade deficit as the basis for tariff calculation implies that if a country exports more to the US than it imports, it is that country's fault : as if to say that if Americans like spaghetti it's Italy's fault.

[Darker45]

Somehow, I agree. This isolates the US. It would have been all right if the US were on a tariff war against 1, 2, or a handful of countries. The problem is that it's at war against everybody else. Indeed, the natural reaction is for everybody else to try looking for alternatives among them.

The good thing is that they're many. The US, on the other hand, is on its own. If one country plans to leave the US market, it may have many options. Whereas, the US in planning to leave the Chinese market, for example, due China's tariff retaliation, might not have options given that it's also in a tariff war against the rest of the countries.

But I guess it isn't that easy considering (1) the consumption level of the US market and (2) the USD's power. It must not be easy for a US importer to easily find an alternative with the same level of demand. Supply might have to be broken down going to different countries. Second, the US is a lucrative market. It may be possible to stick to it despite the increased tariff if leaving means transferring to a much less profitable option. After all, additional tariff costs could easily be added to the products.

[Smartprofit]

The current situation can be analyzed from the point of view of game theory. Globalization has increased the welfare of all countries. At the same time, the country that was the driving force of the globalization process increased its welfare less than other countries. Should this most powerful country in the world continue to develop globalization processes or should this process be reversed? What is better - a big pie in which you own a smaller and smaller share, or a small pie in which you own a larger and larger share? Taking into account that this share will increase over time? Perhaps, Donald Trump has already chosen the second option.

Also, Donald Trump and his team may be abandoning globalization for another reason. Globalization leads to chaos. 8 billion people who own such powerful technologies as AI, cryptocurrency, 3D printers, their own media, etc. make our world absolutely unpredictable. What will happen if public technologies for editing DNA and RNA appear? What if schoolchildren get the ability to create biological viruses, as they now create software viruses?  We already had a precedent when a deadly virus escaped from a laboratory. As a result, all people were isolated in their countries and some in their apartments for 2 years.

And there are many such questions...

It is possible that Donald Trump really wants to create a Technate - an isolated economic space (including the territory of the United States itself, as well as the territory of Canada, Mexico, Greenland) in which industry and technology can be developed, and all this under the strict control of people like Elon Musk.

[pooya87]

Reciprocations against reciprocal tariffs continue
Some countries like France are talking about pulling their investments from US.
Some other countries like China are imposing their own tariffs (34%) on US products.
Someone said that they could also add additional export tariffs on whatever Trump added import tariffs on making that thing's price skyrocket even harder!

8 billion people who own such powerful technologies as AI, cryptocurrency, 3D printers, their own media, etc. make our world absolutely unpredictable. What will happen if public technologies for editing DNA and RNA appear? What if schoolchildren get the ability to create biological viruses, as they now create software viruses?  We already had a precedent when a deadly virus escaped from a laboratory. As a result, all people were isolated in their countries and some in their apartments for 2 years.

And what happens when the rogue US regime that is manufacturing all kids of weapons of mass destruction (including viral) and has a long history of using them against humanity releases another deadly agent against the world and only they control the technology to prevent or cure the disease that agent caused?

[Smartprofit]

Reciprocations against reciprocal tariffs continue
Some countries like France are talking about pulling their investments from US.
Some other countries like China are imposing their own tariffs (34%) on US products.
Someone said that they could also add additional export tariffs on whatever Trump added import tariffs on making that thing's price skyrocket even harder!

8 billion people who own such powerful technologies as AI, cryptocurrency, 3D printers, their own media, etc. make our world absolutely unpredictable. What will happen if public technologies for editing DNA and RNA appear? What if schoolchildren get the ability to create biological viruses, as they now create software viruses?  We already had a precedent when a deadly virus escaped from a laboratory. As a result, all people were isolated in their countries and some in their apartments for 2 years.

And what happens when the rogue US regime that is manufacturing all kids of weapons of mass destruction (including viral) and has a long history of using them against humanity releases another deadly agent against the world and only they control the technology to prevent or cure the disease that agent caused?

I am a humanist and a pragmatist. And that is why I believe that no government in the world will go on such an adventure (I really hope so).

The spread of a biological virus (even assuming the existence of an effective vaccine) is suicide. The virus is essentially a living being, it evolves and mutates, so no one can predict in advance how exactly the pandemic will develop. The result can be unpredictable - up to the death of all humanity.

At the same time, of course, I believe that it is easy to lose control over a virus or AI. And it is the potential loss of control (unintentional) that can bring untold troubles to Humanity.

As for the tariffs introduced by Donald Trump - now the reassembly of the world economy has begun. Someone started a retaliatory trade war against the United States (China, France), someone gave in (Vietnam), someone is thinking about how to turn this situation to their advantage as much as possible (Japan).  

Many of those countries that suffered from high duties are already actively registering legal entities - front men in those countries where duties are 10%. Business is always ready to adapt to the changed situation, that's what it is business for.

[takuma sato]

The tariffs are wrongly calculated, they are imposing tariffs on trade deficits which is absurd. You cannot claim that there is a 1:1 relation and so then get a tariff to every country that is not trading in a symmetrical way with you. These asymmetries are organic and occur due natural supply and demand, so you are screwing up free market economics by adding these tariffs.
-snip-

Completely agree but I would go even a bit further.
I wouldn't say "wrongly calculated" but rather that the left column displaying tariffs other countries apply to U.S. it a big lie , something totally invented : those numbers came out from a middle school math devoid of any economic basis.
There is no reciprocity and no courtesy in these measures, just a big straight lie. This is the first aspect.
Taking the trade deficit as the basis for tariff calculation implies that if a country exports more to the US than it imports, it is that country's fault : as if to say that if Americans like spaghetti it's Italy's fault.

Yeah and you could go even beyond further and point at the fact that since the US has the global reserve currency, then it is not possible to not have an average deficit with the rest of the world, see trifflin's dilemma. But what Trump is promising to their voters is, don't worry we can have it all. We can insulate ourselves and achieve an sort of an autarky system where we are almost fully self-sufficient and build things and consume our own manufactured things with no drawbacks, and that I don't see how it's possible, so the tariffs are going to cause some to say the least interesting effects in global finances. So far the US10Y has been falling today, so the bond market seems to be frontrunning a slow in growth or a recession. There are also more rate cuts being priced in for this year, so this would point to panic cuts by the FED. I am staying in cash for the time being.
It was also interesting to see BTC, MSTR and GME pump today while indexes dumped.

[Ultegra134]

I'm really unsure of how this procedure is going to go. So far, I believe that this action will backfire; it completely isolates the USA from the rest of the world. On the one hand, some claim that this will boost the USA's production and, ultimately, their economy; on the other hand, it will cause a large number of goods in the USA to skyrocket. Whether we like it or not, most products are now manufactured in China or other third-world countries such as Bangladesh, Vietnam, Indonesia, or others. How is the USA going to cover such a huge market share?

On the plus side, crude oil prices have crashed; perhaps this decrease will aleviate some pressure from excessive fuel prices.

[Stalker22]

I'm really unsure of how this procedure is going to go. So far, I believe that this action will backfire; it completely isolates the USA from the rest of the world. On the one hand, some claim that this will boost the USA's production and, ultimately, their economy; on the other hand, it will cause a large number of goods in the USA to skyrocket. Whether we like it or not, most products are now manufactured in China or other third-world countries such as Bangladesh, Vietnam, Indonesia, or others. How is the USA going to cover such a huge market share?

I really dont know what Trump and his advisers are trying to accomplish with this. If they think that all the manufacturing will simply move to America, that is simply not possible. You are right. And frankly, this whole thing reeks of a poorly thought-out gamble. Americans are used to cheap goods, and those goods come from places where labor costs are a fraction of what they are there. And this fantasy of suddenly replacing the manufacturing capacity of China, Bangladesh, Vietnam, Indonesia?  Its laughable. Where are the factories? Where is the workforce? Where is the infrastructure? It is going to take decades, and billions of dollars, even if it were possible.

[Ultegra134]

I really dont know what Trump and his advisers are trying to accomplish with this. If they think that all the manufacturing will simply move to America, that is simply not possible. You are right. And frankly, this whole thing reeks of a poorly thought-out gamble. Americans are used to cheap goods, and those goods come from places where labor costs are a fraction of what they are there. And this fantasy of suddenly replacing the manufacturing capacity of China, Bangladesh, Vietnam, Indonesia?  Its laughable. Where are the factories? Where is the workforce? Where is the infrastructure? It is going to take decades, and billions of dollars, even if it were possible.

It's going to backfire sooner or later; just wait till the average citizen is able to see the outcome of this decision. Amazon.com, one of the largest, if not the largest, retailers in the USA, is full of Chinese products in Amazon's warehouses. There's a reason for that: they're cheap, and Americans are buying them. Do they really expect manufacturers to start building factories and move their production lines to the USA? The opposite is more possible. The majority of the clothing industry is based in third-world countries, as are electronics, furniture, and pretty much everything.

Unfortunately, the average citizen is going to pay the price for these policies.